#48 Emmanuel DeJesus, LHP. BD: 1/6/1994.
DSL: 4-2, 1.74, 46.2 IP, 20 BB, 59 K.
Ordinarily, I don't include DSL guys in the top 50 prospect list. I have a separate category I call Dominican Dandies. I made the exception this year for Adalberto Mejia and Emmanuel DeJesus. I ranked Mejia a lot higher based on the fact I had heard of him before from the announcement of his signing bonus and he has more ideal size for a pitching prospect. You could make a case for DeJesus to be ranked every bit as high based on his performance in the DSL which was spectacular.
DeJesus made two initial appearances in relief and allowed 6 ER with 8 BB and 3 K's in 3.2 IP. He then moved to to rotation and absolutely dominated allowing just 3 ER over his next 43 IP with 12 BB against 56 K's. In his final start he allowed just 2 hits in 7 IP with 9 K's and 0 BB.
I don't really have a scouting report on DeJesus. He was signed out of the Dominican Player Development League which seems to be where the Giants are vetting the international prospects they are interesting in signing. I found a note that he signed for a $35 K bonus. I found a thread on a website called Baseball Fever by a guy who tracks international signings with a BoSox orientation who commented he really liked the DeJesus signing by the Giants. All I know is if he pitches like that as an 18 yo in Arizona this season, he will shoot WAAAY up next year's list.
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6'0 175, so he's a tad undersized. I didn't know those pen/rotation splits. That is seriously impressive.
ReplyDeleteDrB - you got a shout out on mack's mets. Guy named Stephen Guilbert writes excellent draft reviews and did a top 30 in 5 player segments and likes your blog a lot, picked up the Smoral/MadBum comp you made.
As they have the extra picks for losing Reyes, they are in the enviable position of looking at some of this HS talent possibly falling to the supplemental. I really like that Macks Mets blog, he throws up a whole lot of baseball info.
I would really like to have an extra pick in this draft. Last year having the Crick pick gave a nice boost. This year it'll be a long wait between 20 and 82-84.
Hey, thanks for the tip. I'll check it out. It's nice to know folks are reading and appreciating.
DeleteSomebody else gave you a shoutout as well but you're gonna have to dig for it.
DeleteAh well, I wouldn't even know where to start looking, so I guess I'll just have to let that one go.
DeleteI posted up a HS lefty draft preview on MCC and gave you a shout.
DeleteAha! I'll go check that out too! Thanks. I guess I would have found it as I do still surf on over to MCC at least once a day. They are usually pretty quiet on the weekend these days though.
DeleteOK, I'm going to make a flat out prediction here. If Smoral is there at #20, the Giants draft him! CBA or no CBA, he would have to turn down a little over $1 M for a chance to put himself into the top 10 after pitching for 3 years in college. Uh-uh. He'll sign!
DeleteThat low 3/4 RJ/MadBum delivery helps tone down the wildness you often see with guys that tall.
I'm getting into friendly arguments with Fla-Giant about the CBA. He takes the position its almost impossible at that 20 slot to grab anybody who drops. I don't believe that. After looking at a few of these guys, I see his point on some, so I've softened a bit. But are HS guys really going to chase a few extra slots up the 1st round? With 1.5-2MM staring them in the face?
DeleteOK, you like Smoral and you make a good argument for him. I like Fried, but that door should be closed. There are some fireballer right-handed Georgia guys too - I think you've checked some of them out. I'm using this process to work on a prediction beyond the ol' white whale Victor Roache.
Researching some of this pitching draft history led me back to your article on June 17 2011 - Blast from Past the AFW & Sabean's strategy post-Bonds - that was a great post DrB. I wasn't commenting yet, so I didn't give props then, but the Giants have been doing this pitching thing for a long time and doing it well. They want to take your boy Smoral, I'm all for it. Just send that crosschecker.
BTW, I forgot to complement you on your writing. You should think about starting your own blog. I know I would link it.
DeleteAs for Smoral, he just bears such a striking resemblance to MadBum and we know how Sabes tends to keep going back to the same well where he got water in the past. Of course, that also means he might take a Travis Jankowski too, which I'd be OK with, but to me Smoral has a higher ceiling and pitching is a definite need in the organization.
As for the CBA, I don't think you are going to see guys drop because of bonus demands because they know they aren't going to get a better deal later in the draft. What I think you might see is a team like the Astros not wanting to pony up a $7+ M bonus for a Mark Appel then watch the Giants get a guy like Smoral 20 slots later who might be every bit as good or better. I could easily see the team with the first pick negotiating, say a $3 or 4 M bonus with a Smoral then using the extra $3-4 M to go over slot way down in the draft.
DeleteShankbone,
DeleteJohn Klima spent the weekend at a showcase event in SoCal and has some scouting updates on many of the pitchers you covered in your MCC article. Check it out at Baseball Prospect Report linked over on the left.
Saw it DrB thanks for the heads up. I posted a link in my post. And thanks for the encouragement on blogging, I've talked about it with OGC as well. Holding me back is a combination of laziness, trepidation, and the thought the Giants Blogosphere might be a bit saturated right now. I do other writing as well, I tend to be a perfectionist so I am using my love of the Giants to blurt out musings and not get all wrapped up.
DeleteKlima thinks young Hunter should go to college. Don't know if I'm changing my opinion versus Smoral just yet though, he seems very athletic. Very hard to tell from these 30 second clips though.
Shank, step away from the keyboard. Stay free! Live Free! Momma don't let your babies become bloggers. ;-)
DeleteClassic. You know when Willie wants to end the song the cue is he'll sing "Momma don't let your cowboys grow up to be babies?" At least that's what I've heard. Saw him at the LA county fair in Pomona a few years back - front row - and it was AWESOME.
DeleteWhat DrB says about the CBA affects look spot on to me. I've been trying to understand how a team might game the system given that you can spend the total of your slots, but not necessarily the slot. And DrB thought of a gem, I still can't think of a way, but I'll remember this come draft time.
DeleteI also agree that generally you will not see prospects drop in the draft much, because not every team will be signing people to lower than slot early on, in fact, I think very few will try to game it that way, and that is the only way a player who drops can hope to get more.
The decision to sign will then be more purely about whether they want to be a pro ballplayer now or do they really want to go to college and/or play other sports. For first rounders, I don't see how that many will be able to turn down a $1-6M bonus in hopes for a better one when they are eligible again in 3 years. They didn't before, so I see no reason that they will going forward.
Even for guys in the first few rounds, half a million dollars is a lot of money to turn down. There will always be players like Lincecum who turns down that much money, but I think they are fewer and far between. Money, I believe, does talk.
The slotting will just force more teams to draft solely for talent and less on signability, because the slotting and cap on spending will work on reducing signability as a factor, I think, for the majority of the prospects who dropped before. There are not a lot of players who really want to play football as well as baseball, at least for a while, and even fewer who really want to go to college right now, unless their bonus is not enough to cover at least their scholarship that they got.
Even then, if it is equal, I think most will still choose turning pro. That's the dream, and I think most kids will chose the dream.
Here's a scouting report on Emmanuel DeJesus from the Dominican Prospect League:http://www.dplbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=209%3Adejesus-agrees-to-terms-with-sf-giants&catid=1%3Alatest-news&Itemid=1
DeleteShankbone, I think you would be great as a blogger, but it is a commitment and sometimes a chore when life intrudes, as it often will. So there is great freedom in being a free agent, producing when you feel the inclination. Plus, you will get a much bigger audience posting at a place like MCC, than initially at your own blog (or even ever).
ReplyDeleteThat said, if you start it up with the understanding with your audience that you won't be consistent in producing posts, it is kind of freeing to just post on your site and not having to deal with the mindless chatter that is inevitable. It depends on your tolerance of that.
Plus, as FLA-Giants noted, it is not as bad in prospects threads than Giants threads. You clearly believe, as DrB and I, in the Giants big picture, and if you post a lot about that at other sites, you will get more negative responses. If you are one to let them roll off like water off a duck's back, then that should not be a problem.
But to FLA's point, there are opinions, but see, when I do the analysis, to me, that is not opinion, that is the current state of the art in the science of understanding how baseball teams go deep in the playoffs, and of how baseball teams win. I think I understand what opinions versus current facts are. As an analyst, I was kind of insulted by that statement, but I don't think he meant it that way, so I didn't make a big deal about it there.
I was OK bucking heads for a while, but after a while, it just weighed heavily on me and bugged me a lot. It is one thing to be treated like an idiot for making a stupid statement, which I've done many a time and deserved that, but when people treat me like that without even refuting what the studies have shown, well, that's just irritating. Engage me in a discussion, argue about the inadequacies of the methodology, and at least understand the study: I had one guy who continued to aggravate me at my site and other places because he didn't understand what the study's results were and meant; I shut him up every time.
I probably would have gone off the deep end if I continue to post at MCC, nobody there saw what I saw, nobody felt the intellectuall interest to at least try to understand what I was trying to explain (that's why I created my business plan, so I could have a place I can point people to, to explain everything and so that I don't have to write it again for the umpteenth time), and many of them were just happy to pester me.
Which I never did understand. I was trying to help them enjoy an upcoming golden era in Giants baseball. Sure, arms do fail (see Lowry), but you know, many do survive OK and pitch well into their 30's. Their loss, I've enjoyed every season starting in 2007, and while 2011 was a disappointment, they still had a very good showing considering that they lost their spiritual leader and offensive leader (clean up hitter) as well as a number of other good hitters (Burrell, Huff, Torres) in terms of performance.
Well, I understood to some extent. I've been different since I was young. I've always cared about others a lot more than I did for myself (which I grown to learn to do). So I tried to save them from suffering that seemed unnecessary from my viewpoint. But as the saying goes, you can lead the horse to water...
Thanks for your thoughts OGC. I've made some peace in my head with the MCC crowd. I really think its every fans right to grouse a little here and there about their team, their GM, their players. All fans of every franchise in baseball do this. With the amazingly long time period involved in Sabean's tenure there is plenty to mull over and argue about. How it has become so intense, bitter and entrenched I am not sure. Here's a new thought: age and maturity. I would submit that you get all sorts on the internet, and different sites get different types. One thing I have noticed is as long as I stick to the fanposts in MCC with prospect hounds, I am a happy camper. So, in the classic Scando mid-western tradition, if I'm going to go there, might as well try and contribute a little bit.
DeleteWhen the hand wringing takes over, I'll just back my shiny-optimism on out. The other thing I've noticed from hanging out is there are all sorts of fans, with different points of view. Might not be fair to paint everybody with the same brush stroke. I find a lot of humor and knowledge there, if you can skip the snark and (possibly alcohol fueled) rage that flares up. Its still the smartest forum there is, with some pretty sharp fans.
Now you, my man. You are able to share your feelings very articulately and openly, which is rare. There is no other way to describe you but intense, highly intellectual and analytical with some amazing debating skills. Like Sabean himself, you might not be the most social beast, and there is a chance some things get misinterpreted. Further, some people may agree with certain points you make but just can't get over the way you frame it. You've talked about that, and I know a lot is about being fired up and being in the middle of a debate, egging on. That's when it gets intense and things can get out of hand. There is an element of "you people just don't get it" in your screed, I think its sort of like herding cats - you're not going to get the results you want. Now don't get me wrong - I love it. Hard headed stubborn behavior and refusing to back down - that's my wheelhouse. The intensity you bring to your game, its not for everybody.
Your advice on blogging is extremely spot on. I don't have the time, and day to day life gets in the way. Ironically though, when I can't sleep because of rugrats, looking at Gint blogs and commenting is a very enjoyable past time, and I'm stuck at home a lot more this past year than before. So there is that. And the other thing is, the Giants blogosphere is smaller than people think. The same cast of characters show up. You are right, the negative comments flow in a lot of places. I just say you gotta fight the good fight, but also you don't have to defend everything Sabean does either.
You and I share something - long windedness. I keep expecting DrB to kick us out of this joint. Let's get back to baseball: the games in the past 3 years are not for the faint of heart. Games turn on the smallest play. I can only think of a dozen games that were blowouts in favor of the Giants. These games are frustrating, heart breaking and some of the most interesting baseball I've ever watched. Having the Giants run the board was the most exhilarating sports experience of my life. If we hadn't slogged through those good years of 97-04 and came up short I don't think I would feel that way. When 2010 came around, and we got in I knew it was time to grab it with all we got. Playoff baseball is absolutely addictive. When you play so many games like that already, you are completely used to it. I would submit a very huge very large advantage the Giants have: they have become a veteran team used to close games and playing under intense pressure. Instead of whining about the offense and dreaming of big bats, I am embracing the small moves that might tweak the defense and baserunning. Yeah, I'm a contrarian. I like whats happened this offseason, and I cannot wait for spring training.
DeleteThanks to DrB for hosting so much baseball talk. And OGC and my occasional excursions. OGC - I feel a new debate about Michael Tucker and punting draft picks coming on. Can't help myself, it still bothers me.
My experience is similar to OGC's but from a different site. I quit commenting on MCC long before I started my blog. Despite getting into a lot of intense debates there(think some of them might have been with OGC himself), I never really had a problem over there. MCC joined SBNation and required a new log in that I was never able to figure out how to do on my computer, so I finally gave up and became just a reader. Since then, I have found the tone of MCC to become more consistently negative toward Giants management and really quite cynical about it. Also, the 1000+ entry comments sections have become absolutely insufferable and unreadable.
DeleteI was a long time regular on sfgiants.com Message Board. It got taken over by a group of control freaks who behaved like schoolyard bullies and I finally got to the point where I just wanted my own site to post whatever I wanted to say without having to worry about being cursed, ridiculed, and threatened in often very vulgar ways. I didn't care if nobody read it but me. I just wanted to be able to express myself in the way I wanted to.
I am gratified that so many people read the site and welcome the knowledgeable and insightful comments, but I absolutely would have done it if I had just 10, 1 or even no readers at all. Now, I might not have kept it going this long without the audience, but I would have done it for at least a year like I promised myself when I started it.
OGC's "golden era in Giants' baseball": according to a very recent post on Raising Matt Cain, allegedly smart money has the Giants as essentially tied for the second best team in the National League--we're 16-1 to win the WS, the Marlins are 15-1, and the Phillies 6-1. That assessment is despite the imponderable state of Posey's, Franchez's, and Wilson's health, and despite the historic unpredictability of Huff's, Cabrera's, and Pagan's offense. If these gamblers' notions were to have any validity, we'd easily make the playoffs. Our success would rest on best-of-5 or best-of-7 series. In that sort of competition, as we know from 2010, we have advantages in the pitching and as Shankbone says, a "team used to close games and playing under intense pressure."
DeleteI assume that the Las Vegas gambling community isn't made up of ardent Giant fans whom other ardent Giant fans of a different temperament can accuse of being delusional.
Shankbone: yeah, FLA-Giants advice to stick to the prospect areas might work for me. It is just remembering to go check there, plus I do get sucked in to looking at the other titles and peeking at whatever screed they might be on at the moment.
DeleteIntense and bitter: as I noted previously here, that's the DNA of the owner-operator, Grant. I saw him on USENET and he hung with who I would call the greybeard naysayers, essentially guys who grew up with the Giants during the 60's (so I gathered from their posts) and was bitterly warped by the 70's and 80's mediocrity. One of the leaders of the group, don't recall his name, wrote a precursor "blog" called "EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!" (don't know if I have the right number of E's :^), if you look on MCC, there is a link somewhere talking about his "godfather" predecessor. When I had the temerity to analyze the 2003 season and came to the conclusion that it should be an even better season, one of the condescendingly told me, nice try, but no, without trying to even tell me why it is a no. Grant wasn't like that, to me at least, in his early days, but the losing streak seemed to push him into duplicating that history.
Yes, I do have that "you people just don't get it" but that is mostly because that is what I get as reactions to my comments, that I just don't get it (in essence, screw my analysis, I'll believe what I'll believe). So I am a bit hardened by that and I know that is in my tone, but 2010 just exasperated me completely, I had been pretty much nice and accepting that what I was saying was my opinion and analysis (though I admit I pushed buttons by cheering when Sabean got his extensions), but I saw 2010 as vindication of what I had been saying for 3-4 years already and all I was getting was vitriol and getting my link removed, then watching DrB get an invitation to return on my own site while not getting one myself: not that I wanted it, but damn it, if you want to invite DrB, go to his site and do it, not on my site where anyone can read between the lines and read "but you are not invited".
Shankgone, yes, the Giants community is small, the names I saw on USENET, I then saw on Fanhome (which became Scout.com), then we moved to MCC when Fanhome got pretty bad. Actually, that seems to be a commonality, maybe the negativity just breeds, because USENET was pretty negative, so when I found Fanhome, I moved over there and it was pretty good for a while until it got too negative for my tastes there, so I moved to MCC, where it was pretty good for a while until it got too negative for me there. I then had no place to regularly go until DrB set up shop. And I see those names wherever there is Giants discussion, I would run into old names.
DeleteAnd no, I don't think I'm the common link there :^), though what I would say is common is that I seem to rub certain people the wrong way. I never got into anything at USENET, so I left it as I found it, but I had what I would call an nemesis at Fanhome, who basically stole my analysis and report (and my site's owner/editor there allowed it; I should have quit them but was too nice, I thought I was helping the editor out as she was in college and doing this on the side), then argued with me on a prospect with lies he used to support his side (I researched and found that his "truth" was a lie). He also rubbed me the wrong way by saying the Giants should not sign Vlad when I had a whole series of articles on why it might happen. He was a very social fellow and hung out with all the moderators there, from what I gathered from their comments, and they just let him (and others) attack me there (some moderation...) unchastised. He was the reason I moved to MCC, but then later he followed me there.
FYI, I don't recall ever getting into it with DrB there, I remember being impressed with his knowledge, and I did tease him a few times about the whole falling down the stairs thing (but had never mentioned it again until now), so I guess one of my character flaws is that once I realize that you are an idiot, I have almost zero tolerance for that commenter, but for those I respect, I cut some slack, though if I think you are wrong somewhere I will note it (like Rowand signing credit to Magowan, not Sabean, come on, why would Baggerly report that unless he's pretty sure?).
Anyway, I admit that I'm socially inept and I rely on the kindness of strangers a lot, so I thought if I shared some personal stuff with the guy, maybe that could break the ice and we could have a better relationship. Instead, he used that information to make fun of me publicly on the boards by using my dead father (who passed when I was 15 YO) to insult me. Something about "Daddy issues", to flip me off and belittle my comment.
I've always had a pretty simple rule I try to follow, I wish nobody ill, I don't really hate many people, unless he's really bad, like some of the dictators in the world or the genocidal killers or people who steal from a lot of people ruining their financial lives or a killer or child abuser, else, really, most things are water under the bridge for me, to each their own.
He's one of a handful or two who, if something bad ever happens to him, I wouldn't really care and probably would smile about the karma. I would never wish him any bad - that I reserve for the worse of the worse - but I won't feel bad for him if something bad happened to him. So I guess, to your point, Shankbone, I do have an intensity that threads through my life in some way.
About defending Sabean, it is more that I try to show these people that there are more than one way to view the situation. People just go into Chicken Little mode and circle the wagons for no good reason. I'm trying to stop that behavior, save them (another common thread with me). I find that there are not a lot of people praising Sabean more than he deserves, so it just looks like I'm defending Sabean all the time. And when he doesn't need defending, well, then I have nothing to say too. I do not defend every Sabean move, I've noted my problems before and I'll continue to do so. It just seems that way because the errors in logic (and facts) I see only regards Sabean perceived errors.
DeleteYes, thanks to DrB, sorry for hogging so much real estate on this post.
DeleteI definitely remember you DrB. I was very sad to not see you around anymore at MCC, you were up there with Steve Shelby in Giants prospect knowledge, and eventually ran into you on sfgiants.com, and I really wanted to go regularly, to see what you had to say, but I already was bothered by the tone of discussions there so never really got into it. So I was very happy when I found out that he had set up his own blog. I've been commenting here since, from it's early beginnings.
I started my blog because I wanted a place to experiment with the new fad and see what it was all about. It was a social experiment for me. Plus it was free. So I transitioned some of my readers from the site I was working for free at (plus that guy above ended up controlling the site, and there was no way in hell I would work for free to make him money) during the off-season, posting my articles there while plugging my blog in the author's description. I also posted my draft study then, because I thought it was good work and deserved a wider audience, but nobody really wanted to listen, apparently.
Like DrB, I would have done it for a small audience, I had no delusions of a big audience nor did I care, I just wanted to see research on things that I cared about that I wasn't seeing anywhere else, which of course centered on the Giants, and nobody was doing it. And I still don't, though there are a lot more good sites sabermetrically looking at the Giants. But I find those sites to be too negative towards the Giants, undeservedly negative.
So again, I'm not defending Sabean, I am defending the facts and logic as I see them, and I find that a lot of them are way too biased against Sabean, imo. I cannot help it if I am the messenger on that, nor that most posters are wrong about Sabean's moves in a negative way. If I thought someone was too positive on Sabean, I would point out where he/she is wrong in that way. It is just that those creatures are rarer than Higson-Boggs particles.
Actually, campanari, historically, the Nevada betting line has at times been skewed towards West Coast teams, particularly when they are good. I recall many a time that the 49ers betting line did not reflect the difficulty of the situation and team that they were facing, and I recall articles like that from time to time.
DeleteSo it would not surprise me if the Nevada betting line is better than it would be had there been no California betting. Is there an Atlantic City betting line we can compare to?
Laughed out loud at the Higson-Boggs.
DeleteI've been reading your blog for years. Mainly came for the bezball theories, noticed some of the chatter, but really didn't pay close attention. It is no accident that I started commenting on here and over at your joint. All I can say about these forum wars is Monterey Shark's advice is sound - sometimes you back away from the keyboard. Momma don't let your babies grow up to be bloggers.
Lots of fun stuff the past day. This Billie Beane post had me laughing before I opened it, because I knew some of what was coming. DrB dropping the moneyball scene was side splitting, and then Pato coming over the ropes just knocked it out of the park.
Glad to give someone a laugh! I love laughing!
DeleteYeah, forum wars are hard to back off from. That's why I don't really bother going to MCC anymore (and it appears DrB to sfgiants.com) because I tend to find myself getting drawn into reading and going back down that bunny hole. Easier to stay calm and collected here.
There is only one "Willie". You must mean Willie N.
ReplyDeleteIndeed! Whiskey river take my mind...
Delete