Matt Grabusky has his site, MLB Draft Guide back up to full speed after that awful hack attack. If you haven't visited for awhile while he was rebuilding, go back and check it out. He has a link to a mock draft on another site called Minor League Rundown that seems pretty reasonable. This one has HS LHP Matt Smoral going to the Giants at #20. Now, Smoral is somebody I could get really excited about and could easily see the Giants drafting him and he has a reasonable chance of being available at #20.
Smoral is a big guy at 6'8" who seems to have better command than most big guys and most HS kids. In his picture on Perfect Game, he bears an uncanny resemblance to Madison Bumgarner. The PG scouting report has him at 94 MPH with easy arm action and a sharp breaking ball. There is a draft video on BA where if you didn't know who it was, you'd definitely think it might be MadBum. He doesn't bring his arm quite as far back as Bumgarner on the windup but has a 3/4 arm slot that looks a lot like Bumgarner's delivery. Also like Bum, there are concerns about his low arm slot causing the breaking ball to flatten out. There are a couple of YouTube videos out there too.
mlb.com Mock Draft has him at #22 to the Rays. Matt Garrioch at minorleagueball.com has him as the #9 HS prospect which would put him somewhere around #20 in the draft. BA has him ranked #13 on their Top 100 draft prospects, so it's possible he might go before #20. If he's there, I could really see the Giants jumping all over him with visions of Madison Bumgarner dancing in their heads.
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Love that site. Very happy Matt has been able to pick it up quick, and get back to the task at hand.
ReplyDeleteHe shows some of the best aspects of what the internet can be. He shares links, considers random suggestions and puts his own thoughts forward regardless of the consensus. Its pretty rare, and should be congratulated. This theme applies to you as well DrB.
On Smoral - I have to admit to a sudden conservative bug on this one, I am very nervous about the extremely tall. Both the Ohio guys - Cherry is the other one - are insanely tall talented guys. If the Giants want to draft them I hope they send their 2 best cross-checkers. For Randy Johnson - and I really can't think of any other tall guy with huge success - there is everybody else.
I'm not sure why the Giants didn't consider CC Sabathia at the time - he would be the best example of a freakish sized guy who has turned out well recently - but there is a lot of risk. I advocate a lot of risk in general, and I like to bet the longshot, but these guys are too rich for me.
I'm veering on a SE course towards the sweet peachy nectar of Georgia for the HS arms personally.
And oh yeah, Shankbone is gunning to be the new Draft Guru on MCC. He's posted a couple of very nice Fanposts scouting the shortstops and catchers.
DeleteOf course, you always want your team to take the best player available regardless of position and organizational need, but all things being equal, I would be much more down with a shortstop or pitcher than a catcher.
Cheers DrB. I wouldn't say gunning for anything, but I don't want to bombard your site with that volume of verbiage and haven't motivated to go get my own damn blog. I wanted to put something out and get it critiqued a bit. I'll still throw late night prospect ideas your way if you don't mind, I quite enjoy it.
DeleteI agree, I'd rather have a pitcher. But really its always about looking for the 5-tool. Nothing in the world like the 5-tool roaming the OF, taking the extra base and hammering the hell out of the ball.
Lewis Brinson! Or maybe David Dahl?
DeleteShankbone, It was mentioned in Bagg's book, "The Band of Misfits" that in 1998 Tidrow wanted to draft Sabathia but was told no due to the Giants thriftiness.. They were not willing to spend the $$ needed because CC had football offers from Cal & Hawaii.. I remember reading he would have played baseball for Hawaii too.. Instead they drafted 3rd baseman Tony Torcato because they knew he would sign quickly.. We all know how that turned out.
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LG - Thanks for the Sabathia history. That doesn't surprise me at all. I need to buy that book. And the legend of Tidrow grows some more.
DeleteSo I took a little time to doodle on B/R. Stripping back 5 years to cut out the most likely suspects who are still trying (2007 draft - MadBum being in the Majors already is very rare for instance), and surveying the 10 year period from 1996-2006.
HS Lefties drafted in the first round, first 25 picks of the draft: 23 total.
Successes: Sabathia, Kazmir, Hamels, Danks, Kershaw
If you stretch it to the entire first round, including supplemental picks, it is 35 total, and you get to add in Gio Gonzalez, a moderate success.
Silly things to note: Baltimore tried 4 times, whiffed all 4. Cleveland, the White Sox, the Mets and the Doyers both whiffed as well as hit. The Phils only lefty was Hamels. Armed with our Benitez pick that I complain about as well as the supplemental that went with it in 2005, the Marlins whiffed with both of those on HS lefties. Gio Gonzalez has been traded so many times its hard to remember that the White Sox actually drafted him.
Lewis Brinson for sure on the 5-tool HS Front!
The Band of MiSFits is a great read, I greatly endorse it and it is a fast read because of all the great inside Giants info in there, I could not put it down.
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