I find fantasy baseball hard to write about because the universe of possible topics is so huge. Right now, I'm working on my draft board for my Savvy Vets fantasy team and find myself scratching my head over a situation involving our very own Panda, Pablo Sandoval. Savvy Vets plays in a 10 team keeper league H2H, 5X5, snake draft. We get to keep 3 position players and 3 pitchers. 3B is a position I will need to fill via the draft. In looking over last year's end of season rosters, it looks like there is a good chance both Sandoval and Brett Lawrie will be in the draft. My draft strategy is to make a list of the top 20-25 players available regardless of position(although position scarcity plays factors into the ranking). I follow that list for the first 2 rounds(remember, there are already 30 hitters and 30 pitchers off the board in round 1). I then segregate my draft board by position, kind of eyeball my positional needs and position scarcity and draft by those criteria taking the BPA weighted by need and availability for the rest of the draft. I usually save the last spot or two for sleepers or breakout candidates who have flown under the radar. Those first two picks tend to be hitters and I then tend to draft heavy on pitching in rounds 3-10 after I've got my 3 position keeper plus 2 BPA hitters in the draft.
Back to Sandoval vs Lawrie. I'm thinking that both of these guys might well be in my top 20 BPA list and I'm having an endless debate with myself over which one to rank higher. We all know Sandoval's story, but I'll list last year's stat line as well as his 2012 Rotochamp projection from Fangraphs:
2011: .315/. 357/.552, 23 HR, 2 SB in 466 PA.
2012 Rotochamp: .302/.356/.513, 24 HR, 84 R, 92 RBI, 2 SB in 585 PA.
As we all know, Panda missed almost 2 months with the wrist fracture and still put up those remarkable numbers last year. His MLB average slash line is .307/.356/.501 despite pretty bad numbers in 2010, so it seems reasonable that he can keep it going or even improve. I think the power numbers in the Rotochamp projection may be low as Pablo is still likely in the upward trajectory of his career and his 2011 projects to 28 HR's over 580 PA's. Not only that, but Pablo put up 633 PA in 2009 and 616 in 2010 so the 585 PA projection seems very conservative.
Brett Lawrie has been a highly rated prospect in Milwaukee's organization for several years. He was traded to Toronto for Shaun Marcum before the 2010 season and was called up last year by Toronto. Although it is a small sample size, his stat line certainly deserves attention as did Pablo's 41 game trial in 2008 did:
2011: .293/.373/.580, 9 HR, 26 R, 25 RBI, 7 SB in 171 PA.
2012 Rotochamp: .281/.366/.519, 26 HR, 80 R, 85 RBI, 25 SB in 590 PA.
Lawrie did not show that kind of power until he got to AAA Las Vegas which is a launching pad, but his body is just now maturing strengthwise and he's always been projected to have solid power. He did steal 30 bases in AA so the speed is for real.
Sandoval will start the 2012 season at age 25 while Lawrie is 22. Pablo's body habitus and conditioning will always be a concern, but he seems to be dedicated to staying in shape. Lawrie had some pics leak out onto the internet a couple of years ago showing him apparently involved in some immature activities and there was some thought that immaturity might have been in factor in Milwaukee's willingness to trade him, but he seems to have stayed out of the news since then. I would rate both players health and attitude risks to be about equal and minimal going forward. Sandoval, of course, has a longer MLB track record that has been up and down, but surprisingly much more up than down despite the bad 2010.
What it comes down to is they will give you approximately equal power numbers. Pablo will likely help you more with BA while Lawrie gives you those 25-30 steals from a position where you normally don't get very many.
Despite my Giants bias and loyalties, I have to say I'm leaning toward ranking Lawrie higher due to the SB's he gives you over Pablo's more established track record and likely higher BA.
Which of these two player do you think Savvy Vets should rank higher on draft day and would you take them in round 1 or round 2? Or would you look elsewhere in rounds 1 and 2 and try to pick up a 3B later in the draft?
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Don't know how your league is with new players who have obvious stud potential. In mine, they are going to get snagged quicker. Lawrie will be a hot item this year. I'm quite sure he's drafted before Pablo, maybe even 15-20 picks depending on how things shake out.
ReplyDeleteI would go conservative on this - Panda is much more proven, and while stolen bases are very gravy, sometimes chasing the 5-tool can get you in trouble. I drafted McCutchen and Choo early last year thinking it was the best thing since sliced bread. I love 5-tools, don't get me wrong. But sometimes getting the SBs from a dedicated source and getting more production elsewhere is the safer choice.
Then again, I could be pulling a Brian Sabean and remembering the last thing I got burned on and stewing about it. Given the choice though, I'm going Sando on that one. I guess also it depends on where you have Zimmerman, who might be a bit beat up due to last years injuries. Also, this might be the big year for Beltre before the slow age-fueled regression. Lots of talent at third, with Hanley moving there as well. And if you're looking for some beat up value, David Wright is most likely going for the lowest values of his career, right when they are moving in the fences for him. And there's your SBs DrB!
"....pulling a Brian Sabean and remembering the last thing I got burned on and stewing about it."
DeleteI laughed out loud at that one! Yup, that's our Sabes alright.
I guess we all have our haunting experiences. The first couple of years I played fantasy baseball, I pretty much punted steals. I even won my league championship doing that. Then the next year I completely punted Saves and more or less punted Steals and it go pretty ugly. I made up my mind to to try and compete in every category from now on. 20/20 guys who also maintain a good BA are pretty rare. 25/25 even rarer and Lawrie looks like he could be at least a 25/25 guy with a decent BA. That's pretty darn awesome, especially from a position like 3B.
I agree that David Wright is probably going to undervalued this year, but I'm pretty sure someone in my league will snap him up in the first 2 rounds of our re-draft, so he'll be going in the same range as Panda and Lawrie. So, I'm less concerned with finding someone who drops in the draft and is undervalued than I am in the ranking order of, OK, we'll include Wright, Panda Lawrie and Wright.
DeleteBoth of us believe Panda is going to take it to the next level, so there is that as well. Of course then you get into the superstitious juju aspect of fantasy baseball versus your own team, aka hoarding Giants and avoiding Dodgers. You always want to be careful about loading up on Homer picks. I would still say go for Panda though. I would rank it Panda, Wright, Lawrie. 25/25 guys with BA are gold though. Beltran in his prime was a very nice pick.
DeleteHate to say it, but little Dee Gordon might provide good SB value assuming you miss out on the Tulo/Reyes/Hanley tier. (My league has strict eligibility - players have to play 5 games in season to become eligible for the position, so Hanley is out, assuming Reyes hamstrings make it out of spring training of course). If you draft OFs that give you enough power, you can always grab speed with your 3rd OF spot late in the draft - Maybin, Tabata or Austin Jackson. If Jackson can get on base, he should score a lot of runs this year. Another nice cheap grab at the back could be Ben Revere.
I would look for Panda first, be happy with Wright or Lawrie as alternatives, and look for cheap speed at the back either way in 3/4 OFs and SS.
Never played, nor intend on starting, in a fantasy league. But to think of a Panda with good eyesight...don't think I'd pass that one on.
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping this old fart in Thailand up to date DrB.
Thank you for reading. Yeah, the eyesight thing really has be intrigued. Maybe there's a reason he swung at everything. He couldn't see it! Man, that sure doesn't explain how he was able to barrel up that garbage. Maybe he has compensatorially acute hearing and located the ball by listening?
DeleteMy guess is that his athleticism coupled with his childhood game of hitting bottle caps with his brother attuned his hand eye coordination to be able to barrel up pitches so well. I would think that him now being able to see would enable him to better identify pitches out of the zone better and focus his skill on pitches in the zone.
DeleteAlso, I think it was you who got me thinking about Pablo hitting 40 homers, I think on Fangraphs, and my analysis found that it is not out of the question.
Given that potential, I would lean to Pablo, but if you really need SB, then Lawrie is the guy. But if Pablo is raking, he would help in BA too. But yeah, hard choice, do not want to mess up by being too much of a homer, but Pablo is legit top hitter so that is not a factor. And as nicely as Lawrie did, there is risk that he could regress, what was his BABIP? HR/FB? Contact Rate?
I pretty much give no credence at all to BABIP's at his stage of someone's career because they have not established what their own baseline is yet. Yes, you have to be aware of regression but you also have to account for the normal career trajectory of a young player.
DeleteI'm much more concerned about pitchers getting a book on a guy like Lawrie which sometimes happens in the second season, I think it's been called the sophomore slump for pretty much forever. He would then have to make the readjustment. BTW, not everybody has a sophomore slump and not everybody who has one comes out of it.
Pablo Sandoval is actually a really good case in point. He broke in with a BABIP of .356 in 2008 and kept it going with a BABIP of .350 in 2009. He "regressed" to .291 in 2010 then bounced back with a .320 in 2011. League average BABIP is what, right about .300? What BABIP do you think Pablo is going to regress to?
DeleteI don't think Sando will regress in the Babip. Watching top 10 3B on MLB right now, they rate Lawrie over Sandoval, addressing the small sample size by... acknowledging it and then ignoring it. Mike Lowell thinks Sando's conditioning is an issue, when he's overweight before camp. Interestingly, Sandoval saved more runs than any other 3B last year, even beating out Beltre by a solid margin. Despite MLB's shredder going with the rookie, I'd still rec Sandoval. Joe Sheehan is the stats guy alongside Lowell. Now remember this isn't fantasy based, but it almost is because they are focusing on hitting almost exclusively. They went Zimmerman, Lawrie, Panda, Wright.
DeleteZimm is good when he's healthy but he's been hurt a lot. I drafted him pretty high my first season of fantasy baseball and he tanked. Next year, somebody else got him and he was great. I've never forgiven him for that, so Zimm might not even be on my draft board.
DeleteIt's really weird how nowadays one offhand comment can get picked up on the internet and then get repeated so much it becomes accepted as fact. My interpretation of the comment about Pablo gaining weight is that it was referring to Bochy checking in on him early in the offseason BEFORE he started his workout program in Arizona. I've seen recent pics of Pablo and to my eye he looks really good, and yes, I do believe he has probably replaced some of his adipose tissue with muscle.
I think Pablo's gonna be OK and this stuff about him being overweight and out of shape is getting way overblown.
In regards to the laser eye surgery, you should proceed with some caution with Sandoval. Yes he could become even more of a beast with better eyesight, but there have been players who had issues after having that surgery (I believe McCann had issues with it).
DeleteIn regards of who to rank higher, I lean towards Lawrie since he plays in a division with better offensive parks and has a better offense around him. Add in the fact that only the Rays' pitching staff is really all that fearsome in the AL East, there will be a lot of poor starting pitching for him to feast on.
Good point about Lasik. I remember McCann's problems. He was on my fantasy team and it was painful.
DeleteThe Sandoval issue relates, I think, to Bochy keeping on bringing it up in interviews. And from what it sounds like in CSNBA, Pablo is not too happy about all that talk, and thus by extension, with Bochy bringing it up.
DeleteBut I wonder if that is just Bochy motivating the player to do more or not. It is not like he said Sandoval was behind or even too fat, he just said that he looked like he gained weight and could lose a few more, then noted at FanFest that he's improved but still got some more to do.
I recall the Lasix problems, but shouldn't that have cropped up by now? Sandoval is still raving about how much better he can see now, is it really possible for him to have a relapse of some sort, I would think everything would be healed by now.
And perhaps that worry is what drove him to only get one eye Lasixed, so that if it goes bad, he still has his better eye, and it was not like he really saw the ball well before and he was still killing it.
For Sandoval, I would say that his BABIP should most likely fall in the .320-.350 range. There was too much going on in 2010 for that number to be reliable, with his focus and performance dropping every time he hit another milestone in his divorce and child custody fight, then his mother coming close to being burned alive. And he got really fat, affecting his hitting from the right side.
DeleteFor Lawrie, my point was whether there were any thing there that looks like an outlier. Yes, it takes years to establish a baseline (Shandler's book says 3 years), but still there are BABIPs that look way off, HR/FB, contact rate.
So let's take a look at Lawrie. He strikes out too much to maintain a .293 BA. At a 79% contact rate, the average hitter hit roughly .260. The lower the contact rate, the lower the batter usually hits. Of course, one could argue that he's not the average hitter.
His walk rate is good but not great, that the average hitter with that contact rate and walk rate hit .267 on average. His high P/PA suggests that while his hitting might be lower, he should end up with a good OBP because of his walks. However, a study showed that a hitter with a high P/PA and high BA, like Lawrie, tends to regress in year two, 79% of the hitters like that experienced a BA decline.
On top of that, he had an very small LD% rate, 15% vs. 19% average MLBer, that suggests that his BABIP is elevated by luck in 2011, it is much harder to get hits at a high BABIP rate when your LD% is so small, almost a quarter less than league average. All in all, I would expect his BA to fall, and given how poor his LD% is, perhaps by a lot, though given his speed, that mitigates the risk of that as well.
Now, his HR/FB% was 17%. Again, that stabilizes for a hitter's own rate, but that's a high rate, where the average is 10%. A lot of his value in due to his HR power. Most of the projections do not see him keeping up that HR rate, they see it dropping some, though projections basically see him as a 25/25 guy with .283 BA, so his BA might drop some, but he was just that good in 2011 that even a fall still results in a pretty good ballplayer.
Wow, pretty hard to pass up a player like Lawrie, even for Pablo.
So I guess it comes down to your strategy for your team, DrB. Do you need SB help with your plan (for example, I tended not to grab the big steal guys and focused on players in the 10-20 SB range so that I have a nice SB overall, then mid-season, pick up a prospect who gets the opportunity to steal a lot, or a vet dropped for some reason)? Then Lawrie would be the guy. If you have trouble keeping your BA up with your teams (I always sucked there for some reason), then Sandoval would be the guy.
How about HR? I think you were spot on saying that Sandoval could reach 40. That's a lot more than Lawrie's low 20's. Are you picking up big sluggers on your shopping list, or a bunch of 20's guys (for example, like Shankbone, I went early and often for guys with 20/20 potential, so I don't need the big homer guys; are the guys you targeting going to be HR guys?
Also, Sandoval should hit 3rd or 5th most of the time. Lawrie was used mostly in 6/7 in 2011. If you need runs, Sandoval would be the preferred guy, particularly runs/RBI, but if RBI is what you need, then Lawrie probably is OK, if you need his SB too.
Lots of permutations.
BPA may not be your most needed player, even with the first couple of picks. How do your three keepers do for steals? I'm not suggesting you punt the category, but if you have Reyes, Rickie Henderson and Lou Brook, you don't need 20ish steal from 3rd base. Going forward (thinking keeper) Lawrie seems as likely to improve on 20/20 as Pablo is to hit 350 and 30+ HRs in 2013 and beyond.
ReplyDeleteMy 3 position keepers will likely be Justin Upton, Eric Hosmer and either Brian McCann or Michael Morse. In the past, it would be a no-brainer to keep McCann, but catcher has all of a sudden gotten much deeper while first base and OF have thinned out over the last couple of years.
DeleteThe question then becomes, do I continue trying to build a team of 20/20 guys or do I separate the categories, load up on power early and draft a couple of pure speed guys at the end of the draft?
That's what I'm getting at for you - I tried last year to go 20/20 and came up short. So I'm rec'ing the speed guys at the end of the draft. But I'm also headstrong, so I might go back at 20/20 anyways. McCutchen is the Truth! (There's a guy who posts on Sickels with that handle - it cracks me up every time I see it)
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