#8 Eric Surkamp, LHP. 6'4", 190 lbs. BD: 7/16/1987.
AA: 10-4, 2.02, 142.1 IP, 44 BB, 165 K, GO/AO= 0.97.
High A: 1-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 1 BB, 5 K's.
MLB: 2-2, 5.74, 26.2 IP, 17 BB, 13 K's.
This is more of a proximity ranking than ceiling ranking. The Giants have several pitchers in their system who probably have higher ceilings than Eric Surkamp, but none who are closer to a MLB callup. Surkamp moved up a level to AA and dominated it. He then got rushed up to the majors when both Zito and Sanchez got hurt and the Giants needed a 5'th starter. He didn't fare as well in the show. His first couple of games were OK, but then he lost control of the strike zone and got pounded.
Surkamp's fastball was about what I expected, high 80's with an occasional 90 MPH. I have to say I was disappointed in the curveball. I was expecting something along the lines of Zito's, but Surkamp's is much tighter and flatter. I'm just not sure it's the stand alone plus pitch I had envisioned from reports. He also is reputed to have the best changeup in the Giants system, but I didn't see anything to bring back memories of Noah Lowry's MLB debut.
I think Surkamp has enough stuff that if he commands it better and mixes his pitches right, he can be a solid #4 or #5 starter in the majors. He should start the 2012 season in AAA which will give him a challenge to polish up his repertoire and hopefully have more confidence the next time he gets a chance in the show.
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If all he is needed to be is a #4 or #5 starter, then I think he may do well in that role when Zito is gone. There are plenty of teams where most people would have no idea who the #4 or #5 starter is. I think Surkamp was rushed and put into a possible playoff race with lots of pressure on him. His location and control was off and that was probably due to the added pressure. I think he will probably start in 2013 unless someone gets injured next year. Remember, there were a few games last year where Bumgarner looked god awful and we know that is not the case. Let's give Eric a chance and I think he will do alright. Even if he becomes a pitcher who has a 12/12 season that is still better than anything we have put in the #5 spot in a long time.
ReplyDeleteFans expectations following on the heels of Cain, Timmy and MadBum are so out of control its insane. Surkamp got an emergency cup of coffee and was found lacking. I'd say he was too nervous to try his curve ball much, couldn't spot his fastball and I'm not sure about his change which is supposed to be a plus pitch as well. Hope the lad gets some confidence in AAA. His upside is we have a Woody who throws harder, his downside is maybe soft-tossing with not enough confidence or control like the late-era Barry Zito. He put up nice stats in Richmond and was a real standout. Let him breath I says! We need some cheap 4/5 guys to go along with aces.
ReplyDeleteNice to at least have him if Zito hiccups. And as the reclamation projects get obsessed about, maybe Zito is the best reclamation project of them all. I'm skeptical as hell, but the 2nd half of 2009 first half of 2010 was not bad. Throw some of that pixie dust in the air and mix up a smoothie of avocado kool-aid stat, Raggs!
In other news, Darren Oliver officially signed his contract - 4MM bones is a ton for a 41 year old, but I don't hear much outrage. I guess the clever Toronto GM has something buried in the sabermetric vault on this one so no criticisms, please. I'll say it again, Affeldt and Lopez were bargains this year. Good job Sabey Sabes.
Confidence is a big word when you are throwing a <89 MPH heater to MLB hitters. Woody had it, Zito in SF not so much. I really hope Surkamp pans out, gains confidence and Rags cool-aid works its magic. It would be a big relief to have a solid 4th/5th starter in the wings, cause Zito is going to mess the mound at some stretch this year.
ReplyDeleteI think 2010 went really well with trying to find value when a player is down in the market such as Huff and Burrell. We could use a few invites for LHP for Spring Training. I say it wouldn't hurt to invite Scott Kazmir and Zach Duke to Spring Training. If it doesn't work out, then we lose nothing. These are two guys were decent as recent as 2-3 years ago. Maybe a change a scenery and a team that is hungry will work. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteLong time reader of your blog DrB. Nice work by you and the contributors to this blog.
ReplyDeleteI think Surkamp was "gassed" last year after pitching 148 innings in the minors prior to his call-up. In 2010 he only threw 101 innings so the increase from 2010 to 2011 was significant. A dead arm will make even a good curveball flat and a changeup non-existant. I still have faith in Surkamp missing bats in the future and think he will have some decent results in 2012 if we need him.
That sounds about right, RBJ. Surkamp actually threw 131 IP in 2010, and Kruk always use 25 IP as the point of increase where you put some risk in. With his first start, he reached about 156 IP, and basically everything was downhill after that for him. Good point!
ReplyDeleteFor soft tossers, I take them a level at a time. So I look forward to him pitching in AAA next season and see what he got. But I love how much he is striking out, plus how few walks he gives up, so I am very hopeful as well that he can make the leap where others have faltered.
I agree with Roger that it would not hurt to invite Kazmir or Dukes to spring training and see what our staff can do with them, especially Kazmir, wow, has he fallen fast, anybody know why?
ReplyDeleteKazmir has fatigue and shoulder/knee issues related to his delivery that "baffled" Scoscia and the Angels. He got hit around in the DWL a couple weeks ago. That might be a big time project. Webb and Harden are the other injury ridden guys, not sure.
ReplyDeleteIt was looking at Zach Duke's BR page than looking at Zito's that I decided I needed to soften my hard tone on BPBZ. Zito is definitely the best scrapheap guy we can get, and we're already paying him some sort of salary apparently. Duke had a couple pretty good years with the Bucs. We seem to use some of our pixie dust on ex-Bucs, so why not go back to that well? Baseball is all about superstition anyways.
RBJ - great point about Surkamp and fatigue.
OCG
ReplyDeleteSurkamp actually pitched 131 innings in 2009. In 2010 he dropped down to 101 innings when he sustained a hip injury while fielding a ball hit back up the middle.
I have been reading this blog ever since I found it last year. Nice blog DrB.
ReplyDeleteI actually do like Surkamp also read reports that he was able to get his fastball into the low 90's at the beginning of the minor league season. He also has a nice frame and has a chance to constantly stay there. What concerns me about him though is his arm speed which seems well below average.
-PJT
Sorry, RBJ, I meant to put 2009 for the 131.0 figure.
ReplyDeleteWanted to show that he had built up to that 131 IP level for the 2010 season, but that the injury prevented him from reaching it, but I don't think bodies regress downward like that year to year, over one year, assuming he keeps his conditioning the same (DrB?).
So my point is that the jump was not as big as from 101, I would use the 131 figure as the jumping point, and I was trying to show that your point was still correct, he had a good first start but then he went over the 25 IP (and that is not sacrosanct, both Cain and Lincecum went beyond that with no problem) over his 2009 figure, and that's when his starts went into the crapper, lots of disaster starts.
Unlike, say, Vogelsong, who went many years before throwing as many innings as he did in 2011. I went through his starts and he basically passed his threshold in August, when his starts started looking worse, but then he came back with a great Sept.
Thanks for the comments everybody, especially new commenters. Welcome aboard! I think the "Verducci Effect" is overrated, but yeah, any pitcher is going to tend to get a bit fatigued late in the season, especially if he's never thrown that many innings before.
ReplyDeleteKazmir and/or Dukes on minor league deals would be great. Sign 'em up!
Bonjour Dr B,
ReplyDeleteOff topic subject but as you know on monday will be announced the results 2012 Hall of Fame election. Two players who played with the Giants will be on the list, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland.
It could be an occasion to discuss their fate, I am more thinking of Bill Mueller because he was the long time reference of the last hitter our farm system had produced.
Would it be possible for you to write a post about it ?
GIP
OCG
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with you on the 131 innings in 2009 being a base point for innings pitched.
I really think Surkamp has the ability to be a solid #4-5 pitcher for the G's.
GIP,
ReplyDeleteYou mean Bill Mueller was the last hitter the Giants farm system produced before it produced Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Nate Schierholtz, right? I'll have to think about doing a Blast From the Past on Mueller and Mulholland. I liked both players, although I think they both had their best seasons with other teams.
Yes that exactly what I meant, sorry if my post wasn't clear.
ReplyDeleteI have to say that I was a little fed up to ear always the same thing about the last hiter our farm system was able to produce... There is no better place for a blast from the past to be in the midst of posts regarding the future.
GIP
I agree with RBJ and others that Surkamp has the ability to be a solid #4-5 pitcher for the Giants, once he gets a solid year in AAA under his belt, plus maybe work on the nerves that others mentioned.
ReplyDeleteIf he can tweak his mechanics, though, maybe add on some meat to his frame, maybe he can regularly hit 90 MPH+, I mean, he's 6' 4"! That would be invaluable for him taking on MLB batters, maybe make him #3 capable (just not on Giants :^).
To Roger's comment about picking up down people, I would add Santiago Casilla to the list. Went from being let go by the A's, who was dying for relief, to being an integral cog in the Giants bullpen.