#26 Roger Kieschnick, OF. 6'3", 215 lbs. BD: 1/21/1987. B-L, T-R.
AA: .255/.307/.429, 22 2B, 5 3B, 16 HR, 13 SB.
Roger Kieschnick is one of those players who has had a terrible time of it since being promoted to AA Eastern League. After putting up an .876 OPS for San Jose in 2009, he struggled in Richmond in 2010 and missed the second half of the season with back problems. He came back in 2011 and hit quite well for the first half with power. His offense collapsed in the second half casting a dark cloud over his future. At age 25, I think it's probably time to say he's paid enough dues in the EL and give him a chance to break out in Fresno. You hate to give up on a player with his combination of power potential and athleticism but time is running out.
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I agree, just give him a shot to see how he does in AAA and see if that gets him out of his funk.
ReplyDeleteHis .876, while great if he were doing it in the majors, is not really that outstanding, the bar for making the majors is very high when you are down that far in the minors, you really need to stand out and be among the top 10 or better in something, especially relative to players your age. That OPS was only 28th in the league in 2009, only 15th among those 22 YO and younger.
But if they do that, how would that fit in with other prospects? I'm still recovering from my bout of whatever, so my mind isn't still 100%, so I can't pull up all the names, say, DrB, have you thought of putting together a depth chart by position for the Giants? Basically, where you see all the Giants players fall out by level and position, your projections for 2012. Say, MLB C is Posey, AAA is Hector Sanchez, AA Tommy Joseph, Advanced A is Andrew Susac, for example. Or was that your planned ending of your series of top prospects?
I did the depth chart thing earlier this offseason. Sorry there isn't a good way to search this site's archives.
DeleteThat's probably what I remembered, what I do for my site is to label it by keywords like "Depth Chart" and that would show up as a label that can be reached by the label list. Oh, just realized that you don't list your labels on your site.
DeleteNo biggie, I didn't even think to search, I can do that.
The were in October and November of this year.
DeleteAnd they were excellent. My favorite way to check out the system.
DeleteKieschnick is in his make or break year most likely. Still, they thought enough of him to put him on the 40. Back injuries are tough, tough business.
saw a report on MLB.com that giants are 1 of many big market teams in on a D.R. 18 year old southpaw Gerardo Conception
ReplyDeleteThe Giants seldom do what they are rumored to be about to do, so I would take it with a grain of salt. It is encouraging that they are still showing signs of activity on the international market, though. It's possible the Cubans are sucking all the oxygen out of the international market this year leaving some relative bargains coming out of the DR, Venezuela, etc.
DeleteYou know how Brian Sabean is often accused of not understanding, much less exploiting market inefficiencies? Here's another piece of evidence to the contrary. Have you noticed that the Giants are signing more 17 and 18 year old international prospects? Bingo! There's an article in Fangraphs called Younger Isn't Better in the Dominican. It's about how teams are overvaluing 16 year olds and paying a premium for them when they can spend about 50% less on 17 or 18 yo and still get future stars.
DeleteI know, right? THT did the same a few years back, found that there was an inefficiency in baseball regarding players 36 and older, where those who lasted to that age range was good at producing value, then noted that it looked like Sabean has been capitalizing on an efficiency in recent years.
DeleteWhile I agree that most Giants rumors are to be taken with a grain of salt, I have found that rumors on the international front has been pretty good, I recall Villalona and RafRod rumors prior to the signing, some guy named Wagner Mateo or something like that, which they voided when something was wonky in the physical, and other lesser signings.
I'm glad they are looking internationally still, seemed like the RafRod and Mateo deals seemed to freeze things, then I saw somewhere (probably here) that the Giants switched from a few large deals to a lot more smaller deals, using a volume approach. I like that because if you look at the list of the top international signings, the vast majority flamed out really badly, to be honest. I was pleasantly surprised with Villalona's bust out power and RafRod's first nice season, but the history is almost totally against that mode of operations.
Say, I just saw on a TV show, Body of Proof, where the forensic physician had to testify that a youth was indeed a youth and not older, as he was from the Carribean, or something like that, and some sort of legal issue meant a much lighter sentence if he was a youth.
DeleteMaybe the MLB should hire such an expert to fly around and examine players that MLB teams are thinking of signing, since the age difference is often 3 years, making the supposed youth actually older than 18. Or if a team is smart, hire their own expert secretly to go around as their doctor to verify youth.
i don't think the giants will get him as it says the Rangers are favorites and they are pretty invested internationally, but it would make sense if they believe he can possibly be a 2/3 down the line because of the lack of impact pitchers in the system, and we don't have the high picks to get high caliber pitchers in draft and we need impact bats more than impact pitchers
DeleteOT: but interesting, the new owner of the Astros is considering (not finalized) changing the name of the team when it goes to the AL in two seasons, 2013. That actually makes a lot of sense to do, since they are changing leagues.
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-astros-namechange
Don't know what would be a good name though, not too familiar with the area enough to hazard a guess, though Cowboys and Oilers made a lot of sense. What else is down there?
Dave Cameron was on Clubhouse Confidential on MLB tonight - just watched it - he managed to stay professional and not mention magic dust or kool-aid while talking about the Giants aces. They discussed Timmy, the consensus was the Giants shouldn't push it on signing him with the ratios declining and he shouldn't lock up and give away his best years. Cameron did get in a little "Cain has figured out how to pitch in that park" dig. Its funny to see a face to a guy you've read. He's a fast talker. They discussed all the 100MM pitcher contracts. Timmy compares statistically with CC and Johan Santana. He has better K's and worse BB's. The decline in velocity is pretty extreme, 93-96 to 90-94 (ballpark). Cameron did have the point that can take him from an ace to a 2-3 starter. Maybe the Giants were right on the nose there at 5/100.
ReplyDeleteThey get this Cain deal done, it takes a ton of pressure off the situation.
Timmy is not going to give us a deal. Fair enough. He's perfectly willing to go year-to-year (or sign a two-year deal). I say take him up on it. I too see a mild, but pretty damn clear, decline in his peripheral numbers. And, as you point out, there is a very real, very measurable decline in his FB. Another two years will almost certainly clarify things. Either Tim will adapt and remain an elite pitcher, worth an insane contract or he won't. We will definitely know more after 2013.
DeleteI don't see how the Giants lose by keeping the deals short. Tim is incredibly confident and completely and totally WANTS this. He wants to be a free agent. Go along.
The only way to prevent this is drop the $200 million on him now. No way.
Let's sign Cain, come to terms with Tim on the 2-year deal and see what happens.
i believe that part of the loss of velocity is purposeful as it happened at about the same time timmy developed the killer change
ReplyDeletetimmy a number 3? dont make me laff
in other news, the boss gets a cool 3mil to play for the bosox...good for him
Well, statistics don't back up Cameron's Matt Cain "figuring out how to avoid HRs in that park" assertion.
ReplyDeleteBatters hit 220/291/350 for 640 OPS at home
Batters hit 236/307/376 for 683 OPS on the road.
HRs skew 55 allowed at home, 53 away. Yes, PAs skew towards home, 2881 versus 2569 (106 games pitched at home 98 pitched away). You catch up the 300 plus PAs you'd get another 6 HRs (about 50 PAs/Hr). So with rough estimates he's allowed a projected 59 away versus 55 at home. I'd say he's figured out how to pitch, period, and that dig about the home park is unwarranted. Yes, he doesn't play in the AL bandboxes, and that could possibly change things. But he doesn't pitch there, he doesn't have to worry about that currently. I'm sure if pressed Cameron would expand to the NL West as a whole as the reason Cain can do what he does instead of just admitting he's a great pitcher. Just like his jihad against MadBum.
There was an interview of Beltran on mlb, talks about how he's amazed Bonds did what he did at PacBell.
Bacci - you gotta good point on the velocity. Suddenly Timmy goes from 65% FB rate first 2 years to 55% his third year, then 38%, 42%. And checking fangraphs itself, its not nearly as big a dip as Cameron said last night on the broadcast. His avg velocity his rookie year on his fastball was 93.6 first year, topped out at 94.0 and dropped to 92.2 last year. Quoting a range makes it seem more dramatic than it is, but that might not matter compared to the pitch he's setting up.
Timmy's pitches are hard to pin down, exactly "what they are". According to fangraphs, he abandoned his curve and switched up to his slider (24%) last year. This is what I'm talking about when I say Timmy has to adjust to the league and I'm confident he will. I think he's in a league of his own as far as this goes.
It seems like that 5/100 is a low bid, OGC pointed out it should elevate at least to 5/116 or so. They're playing Team/Agent games, so be it. I agree Kelly, we're not going to get a deal on him, keep it to 2 and then see what happens. I'm pretty confident he'll remain an elite pitcher, but its good to look at all the data. As Monterey Shark says, Timmy for Two!
Also forgot to say the past 2 years he's throwing the 2-seam fastball, he throws it 15.2% 2010 and 12.7% last year at 91.3/91.7. Coupled with the slider, its just a different look and maybe he needs to keep the velocities closer together. But also every pitcher comes out throwing as hard as they can when they're young and then figure some things out, situational pitching. I'm more worried about his mental check outs at times then his velocity. And I think the walk rate is hitters adjusting to the change/splitter in the dirt.
DeleteIf 5/116 would get the deal done I'd say do it with a quickness. But I'm an optimist. I can understand waiting him out on the 2 years and trying again. I would expect some different pitch ratio next year as well. He's got 5 pitches for crying out loud!
Shank - nice call out on Timmy's pitch selection. What most people don't get is pitching is about keeping the hitter off balance. Yes high 90s heat makes a difference, but over a long season with the type of advanced scouting being done today a pitcher must mix it up to remain elite. Timmy's "freakish" ability is his body control/muscle memory that allows him to harness his full body power potential with five pitches that look the same coming out of his windup. Couple this with a very competitive nature to "prove that the skinny kid can pitch" and you have a big game winner.
DeleteTimmy for Two!
Part of me kinda wishes Timmy was a total douche bag so that we weren't so attached to him. If he had an attitude like Matt Latos then he would be shopped around after basically giving double guns to the Giants this offseason. Yeah he is just looking out for himself and I would probably do the same but he has to know that with every delay in signing he complicates things for the team.
ReplyDeleteI am also convinced that there are maybe 10 pitchers in the league over the last 10 years who have been able to sustain excellence over a 5-10 year span and the rest just wear out. There are even less that have lived up to their contracts and my guess is that it will be nearly impossible for Timmy to live up to his when he finally does sign long term.
And there it is, Timmy gets 2/40.5MM and we're done for the moment.
ReplyDeleteBring on the Cain extension Sabey Sabes.
Some stats I posted on the Gillaspie post, thought I would add here:
ReplyDeleteHe was tied for 14th in the EL in Homers in 2011, though to Roger's point, he was only 48th in overall SLG, but that was mainly due to his low BA, as his ISO was 174, which was good for a tie for 34th and just two extra bases away from 30th.
His 2011 was affected by a very slow start in April (maybe he succumbed to the cold New England spring?), with 0 homers, then hit all 16 in the next four months. So in those months, he averaged 23.5 AB/HR, which is a good ratio, had he done that in April, he would have ended up with 20 HR, good for tie for 7th, and his ISO would have been 24th, just behind Allan Dykstra of the Mets.
Oddly, his ISO was hurt by his home, but he made much better contact at him, much more LD, so he hit really well at home, not so much on the road, except for power.
Seeing his split stats - http://firstinning.com/players/Roger-Kieschnick-a/ - his collapse was really in the month of August. Either his conditioning wasn't enough or could his back have gone out again and he tried to play with it? Either way, his power was still there, .189 ISO in August, but his BABIP and BA went way down and his strikeouts went way up. It was actually kind of a repeat of April, only in August he hit homers which boosted his ISO.
ReplyDeleteGiven how well his numbers looked after April, I would just put him in Fresno and see how he does, as DrB aptly noted, he has probably paid his dues in AA, time to see how he does in AAA. And get him some training, either to build up stamina, his back, or both.
Given that he was slightly below the average age in AA, he probably could be a fringe starter (for a poor team) or good 4th OF by the time he's 28, 29, 30, somewhere in there.