#16 Jarrett Parker, OF. 6'4", 210 lbs. BD: 1/1/1989. B-L, T-L
High A: .253/.360/.397, 25 2B, 13 HR, 20 SB, 5 CS in 486 AB.
Jarrett Parker has tools, all 5 in fact. He can hit, hit for power, run, throw and catch. After a fine sophomore season in college, he was projected as a potential first round draft pick, ahead of Gary Brown, among others, by some analysts. His stock slipped after a disappointing junior season. The Giants have made it a draft strategy to use non-first round single digit draft picks on formerly highly ranked players whose stock has fallen. The grabbed Parker in the second round of the 2010 draft after taking another toolsy college OF, Brown, in round 1.
SJ was Parker's first professional experience. He didn't have a bad season, but it wasn't a great one either. He started off slowly, hitting .211 in April, then caught fire and hit .282 and .299 in May and June, but tailed off considerably after the All-Star break hitting just .239 from then on.
If Parker's performance had been at the MLB level, it would have been quite valuable mainly due to his excellent OBP. The problem comes in trying to project him into the future from high A ball. Can a guy who hits .253 in high A ball hit above .220 at higher levels? If he can't, the low BA will drag all his other numbers down with it. Was the dropoff in the second half due to fatigue or did the Cal League pitchers get a book on him? Is the K rate an acceptable byproduct of his patience at the plate or does he take too many called strikes? Does his height make it too difficult for him to control the strike zone?
I saw Parker play in 3 games last year. He didn't look impressive at the plate. The one thing that stands out in my mind is a throw he unleashed from RF that rivals anything I've seen Nate do. What a cannon!
He'll be 23 yo this season and the Giants are hinting he may be back in San Jose. That doesn't bode well. Do you send a guy like this back to San Jose and hope he dominates or do you push him to AA and risk having him be overwhelmed? I'd lean toward pushing him. Parker is a hard guy to rank. He appears to have a high ceiling, but he's behind the curve age-wise and a risk to stall out early in his pro career.
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Again Dr.B as you know this is my favorite prospect, mainly for the defense, arm, power, and speed combination of tools. But, I do understand your trepidation, as if he only hit .253 in San Jose, can he hit any higher at other levels? My inclination would be yes, just because eye doesn't go away. I would also push him to AA. My report on him will be posted on my blog tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteHe has to repeat SJ, I think, because of horrendous strikeout rate there, his contact rate is right at 70%, very poor, and only in Advanced A. His eye may not go away, but neither would that bad rate. Particularly with that bad second half.
ReplyDeleteI do not think that would hurt his status much. I recall Nate repeating SJ, and he has done OK. it is not like We are expecting him to be a great hitter prospect, like Belt became. A good average hitter in RF with pop and defense would be great for us there in 3-4 seasons would be good return for second round draft pick.
I agree as well. The biggest example I can recall is the Giants rushing Noonan to Double-A even though he was young and he could have used another year in High-A. Double-A just killed his confidence, and he hasn't been the same since. Though Parker seems to get on base well, I would want to see a better average and cut down the strikeouts before I would feel confident sending him up to Double-A, which is very tough on hitters. Furthermore, just because he starts in High-A doesn't mean he has to stay there. If he does well and tears it up, then there is no reason why he can't get promoted to Double-A and still be on track.
DeleteDrb, Keep up your great work on Giants prospects! While I've read about the Giants top 10 prospects in BA, I'm enjoying familiarizing myself with the other Giants prospects. Parker is interesting because of his tools and being a 2nd round pick. I don't think repeating A ball would hurt his status either. Lets say he does well starting the season in A ball, then move him up to AA for the 2nd half of the season.
ReplyDeleteLG
On the plus side Parker got hot at the end of the season and killed it in the SJ playoffs. Small sample size for sure, and it came on the heels of an awful August where his K rate spiked big time. If the Giants can get their minor league system working to the point where we don't have to go out on the FA market for the Dave Roberts, Randy Winn's, David Dejesus and Coco Crisps of the world, we're coming out ahead. Tall order to become a major league baller for sure. Solid yet unspectacular OFs can be very useful. The Giants seem to collect 3rd or 4th OF types all the time. Paying them less money would be a good strategy.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants seem to favor college bats early in the draft at this time. They are immediately behind the 8-ball developmentally, the age relative to league will usually not favor them. So Parker didn't hit the blocks running like Brown or Panik, it could be because he's not up to the task, but I'm glad the Giants seem comfortable letting these guys breath a little, the under-performing college bats that is.
Parker is why we have a stepped development system. Guys like Belt, Posey, Brown and Panik seem to have rockets attached to their backs. Guys like Parker who struggle to harness their gifts hopefully get to grow and learn their craft over several years, 1,000+ ABs and maybe, just maybe, make it to the bigs. So yeah, the system should have lots of Parkers and hopefully 1 or 2 breakthrough and make it.
ReplyDeleteI just hope that Parker doesn't turn out like Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez has all the tools but just can't use them consistently. At some times he looked like the best pitcher on the roster with unhittable stuff and at other times he walked every player in sight and barely get through 3-4 innings. I like Parker, but by repeating the PCL, I don't know what that will accomplish. The PCL is an extremely hitter friendly league and the numbers can look inflated. I think by going to the EL he can make a lot of believers if he produces at the plate and get with players more in his age group. Also, I believe it shows faith in a prospect when you move thdm along. Making him repeat the PCL may hurt his game mentally when his buddies move up. I could be wrong but when you have 5 tool player not playing at his potential, it could be thd mental game. The best example is Matt Kemp of 2010. A mix of ownership issues and dating Rihanna screwed up his game.
ReplyDeleteI believe Roger meant CAL League, PCL is AAA.
ReplyDeleteThere is a fine edge between moving players up so that they are not mentally affected and showing some standards for getting promoted. I do not think his numbers justify promoting him. How would Brown feel about out hitting Parker by a lot and yet did not get promoted last season, then see Parker get promoted anyway? I would rather worry how my better prospects feel mentally than marginal ones like Parker who did not show a lot.
Because they were picked at almost the same point in the draft I compare Parker (#74 2010) to Roger Kieschnick (#82 2008). DrB has Kieschnick at 26 this year, in his 3rd year now, including a back injury and a repeat of the Eastern. Roger K doesn't have the speed of Parker but maybe the same contact issues, it looks like the same development train for these two. Whether its the Eastern or the Cal, slowing a guy down isn't the worst thing in the world. I don't think it will damage a psyche. If anything that should motivate any athlete with some sand. If they don't go with DrB's good prediction of Jankowski early I bet they'll look at the St. John's OF in the 2-4 to keep repeating the process. Nate Schierholz is a good OF, and while it remains to be seen if he's as good as a Randy Winn, he costs a lot less. Developing your own guys slow and steady saves good money in the middle market, which is where we don't want to be if it can be avoided.
ReplyDeleteYou're exactly right. Parker is essentially a poor man's Kieschnick. He's not quite as good as Roger in most aspects, aside from speed, but doesn't have the recurring back injuries holding him back and he's got more time to develop.
DeleteHell yeah! Real Giants news! 2 years 8MM for Vogelsong. Good for everybody on that one. Vogelsong is a lot of fun to watch, congrats on that contract Ryan.
ReplyDeleteYou know, I really feel good about that contract for Vogelsong. All those years of struggling finally paid off. Now, if he invests it wisely, he's pretty much set for life no matter what happens. It's a bit chancy for the Giants. They are showing a ton of faith in him, but you know what? He's earned every penny of it as far as I'm concerned.
ReplyDeleteGreat for Giants, great for Vogelsong.
ReplyDeleteYep, at roughly $4M after taxes and agent fees, invest that in good stocks, the income and appreciation should sustain him for the rest of his life, as long as they don't go hog wild in spending (well, some now to celebrate, nice car, nice home, should still have lots of money left over to invest for the future). Plus, even mediocre pitchers have been able to carve out a long afterlife in the free agent market, so he might be able to get another 2 year contract down the line for about the same and still be good value for the signing team.
I don't view it as too chancy. That's less than 2 WAR total, less than 1 WAR per season for it to pay off for the Giants. Don't know what a 1 WAR starting pitcher is, exactly, but I don't think Vogelsong will have any problem reaching that. And if he can just be average in 2012 - which is around 4 ERA - that's 2 WAR right there, if I understand the methodology correctly, which pays off the contract in year 1, with year 2 to come. If he can do two years of that, then he's a bargain. And pretty good in the 4th starter spot.
So I'm happy about the deal, plus it sounds like from Baggs that the Giants are moving on the Cainer front in getting an extension done. At least they are talking a lot and they are positive about it. I think they want a deal done before Lincecum so that no bar is set too high and Cain's side might want more.
Not surprisingly, the Lincecum negotiation has been cold the past month, but I'm sure there are wailing going on now in other Giants sites. Lincecum's side is always asking for the moon, so negotiation with them is useless unless you want to bend over and get reamed. The Giants are right to pass on the 8 year proposal from the Lincecum camp, and wait to see what figure they submit for arbitration.
I mean, if Lincecum's side wanted to, they could have given the Giants an indication of what the ballpark is that they are looking for and they can avoid arbitration now, then work on the extension, just like Cain's side is doing right now. But after seeing Lincecum's agent pull that stunt last time to have both sides sitting there ready to go into the arbitration session, and then pull the Giants aside to negotiate, shows you his negotiation tactics are not driving towards conciliation and resolution, it is driving to get the maximum he can get.
And that's fine, that's their prerogative, but Giants fans don't seem to realize that Lincecum's side is playing hardball negotiating and thus you have to be patient with the process and not worry over how long it is taking, that is part of the game plan of Lincecum's agents, for good or bad.
Given, however, that Lincecum had a tentative deal to be the 3rd pick overall with Tampa, only to see them pick Longoria, then he fell to 10th, probably is a sore point with him, as that probably costed him at least $2M in bonus money, he's probably been looking to make up that money somewhere, somehow.
I still think that it will be hard for any player to turn down a $100M+ deal (and at 5 years, which seems to be the trend for pitchers in his age range, it has to be that large, I think), when he is guaranteed only the money he makes in 2012 (roughly $15-18M I think). Would take a lot of cajones and bravado to turn down such a deal, and I think the Giants are banking on that.
And given the closeness of entering arbitration last time with them, what if Lincecum's side ask for the moon, as many internet guessers have guessed, and the arbitrator awarded it? I think that is the driving factor in why the Giants have stuck to the $130M payroll figure, as they cannot really plan for anything really until the Lincecum situation is handled. I'm sure they will go above $130M if necessary to retain Lincecum, but what if they spent money on a hitter too and now their payroll is $145-150M? That they can't handle.
OGC,
ReplyDeleteI agree with this analysis completely. Great comment!
Can't plan anything until the Lincecum situation is handled. Well said, such a simple concept, and sitting in plain view. But the Loogys! I'm pretty sure Timmy's arbitration can eat a Loogy contract for breakfast and ask when brunch starts.
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis of the face off the Giants staring at. And on the player front, its fantastic that Vogelsong's trip through the wilderness paid off for him. It should be a good deal for both the Giants and his family. Couple in Evans encouraging words on the Cainer front and it was a nice couple hours of Giants news for sure.
Reading Baggs article, with Vogelsong in the backwoods of PA so he has no distractions and he can work out, I can't help but contrast it with our supposed #5 starter. Zito may become the best reclamation project of them all, and I'll root for it, but I have my doubts. He's getting married, not even any pr puff pieces about long toss this year? Zito is in serious trouble here. He needs to gain back 3-4 MPH on his fastball, and that is conservative. In addition, he needs to stop being a mental midget. As Yogi says, baseball is 90% mental, and looking at Vogelsong powering through I have to agree with that. I'd give BPBZ a 5% chance of achieving reclamation, and he needs to go all out to do it. I just don't see Zito going all out. Anybody else see that happening?
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