#5 Francisco Peguero, OF. 5'11", 195 lbs. BD: 6/1/1988. B-R, T-R.
High A: .324/.387/.441, 2 HR, 4 SB in 68 AB.
AA: .309/.318/.446, 12 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 8 SB, 1 CS in 285 AB.
DWL: .264/.312/.345 in 87 AB.
Francisco Peguero is a perfect example of how you get a divergence of opinion between scouting oriented vs stats oriented analyists. In his BA write up, Baggs called him "the most tooled up player in the system." Peguero is the classic "tools" prospect. He has a great hit tool. He runs well enough to steal a lot of bases and cover CF. He catches the ball once he gets to it. He has a strong enough arm to gun down runners from RF. He has projectable power, although we haven't really seen it yet. So what keeps Peguero from being the top rated prospect in the Giants system? Well, there's the power that hasn't displayed itself yet, but when the stats oriented analysts look at his lines, they stop at one item, throw up their hands. and say, "he's never going to amount to anything." That one item? BB%! Peguero is a very aggressive hitter and just never walks. That's the death knell for most sabermetric oriented prospect evaluators.
Now, I'm somewhat stats oriented myself. I'm certainly no baseball scout, although I'm trying to learn something about what scouts look for in a player. I just don't happen to necessarily buy into all the statistical dogma that's out there. To quote Bob Seger: "Call me a relic, call me what you will. Say I'm old fashioned, say I'm over the hill." As I've said many times, BA is still the first stat I look at when evaluating a prospect. It's not that I don't also value the ability to draw a walk or hit for power. I just don't think that a prospect who can't hit for average in the minor leagues is going to be able to stay much above the Mendoza Line in the majors. I'll put up 3 hypothetical batting lines:
Player A: .300/.315/.450.
Player B: .300/.360/.450.
Player C: .260/.360/.450.
If we are looking at established MLB players, yes, I'll take Player C as the guy who gives you the most offensive value. He gets on base at the same rate as Player B and hits for a lot more power. Player A would be the least valuable of the 3 at the MLB level. Let's say these are 3 AA players? Does that make a difference in which one you would pick? It definitely does for me. I believe that if Player C hits for a .260 BA in AA, he's going to have a heckuva time keeping his BA above .220 in the majors and all the other numbers in the line drop along with it to the point where he really isn't a very valuable player anymore. Anthony Rizzo of the Padres would be a perfect example and why I said the Padres did not get enough back in the AGone trade back when it was made. Given the choice between player A and Player B, yes, I would take Player B too. That's why I have both Brown and Panik ranked higher than Peguero despite Peguero having arguably equal or better tools. Given the choice between Player A and Player C though, I would definitely take player A, especially if he scouts well. I believe most sabermetric analysts would take Player C though, no matter what the scouts say, and that's where the divergence comes.
Francisco Peguero started out last season on the DL for arthroscopic surgery on his knee. That may have slowed him down a bit after he came back, but he still put up a fine season. Baggs reports that by the end of the season, Pegs was running normally and looked like his old self. There just aren't very many hitters who hit .300+ in the Eastern League, so count me as impressed by that. Pegs should move up to Fresno in 2012 which is a much more conducive hitting environment. He will have to learn to deal with those crafty AAA pitchers though. He will turn 24 yo mid-season so is starting to run out of time. He should have a big year in Fresno and be ready for a callup mid-late season and ready to challenge for an MLB gig in 2013. He has a very wiry body type and I see him still gaining power, but he may turn into too much of a "tweener". Brown is clearly the CF of the future for the Giants and Pegs might not hit for enough power to stick as a corner guy. I wouldn't be shocked if he's moved in a trade package at some point.
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That "tooled up" quote stood out to me as well. Frankie Pegs has to show something this coming year. Said it before, but Fresno could be a juggernaut with Pegs, Chris D, Hembree, Conor G and maybe even Belt! Gints have had bad luck with injuries to top guys - both Crawford and Adrianza as well as Pegs. As we look at 4th OF types who bat right handed, I can't help but glance at Mr. Pegs here. Tough to trust a rookie who will hack, but the Giants are showing a ton of faith in their minor league system so far this offseason, why not a little more?
ReplyDeleteI am not too worried about the walk rate. Sandoval hardly ever walks. I just hope he can keep the strikeouts down and his BA up. Sandoval held a .315 BA with 32 walks and only 63 strikeouts. That is excellent. He also lowered the amount of GIDP due to his weight loss. Pegs could be another free swinging player like Pablo which is not necessarily a bad thing. Vlad Guerrero is a good comparison. I am just hoping the power comes in. I have a feeling he will not be part of the major league club. I can see him as a part of a trade this year. With Pagan, Cabrera, Belt, Schierholtz and Gary Brown, I don't think there is room for him in the plans. I like the thought of a talented cost controlled guy like Pegs, but just like Thomas Neal, it probably won't happen.
ReplyDeletePlayer C looks ALOT like Jarrett Parker, my favorite prospect in the system. Can hit for decent power, can steal bases really well, plays great defense in right and center, has a killer arm, and his OBP is through the roof. While he does not hit for average very well and strikes out too much, I believe he has a better future than Frankie Pegs.
ReplyDeleteI am not optimistic on Peguero. Roger, I don't think the Sandoval or Guerrero comparison applies here. I tend to think , he is more like Schierholtz with less power and more speed (Although the San Jose stats shows that he couldn't translate his speed on stolen base threat).
ReplyDeleteOnly in Richmond, did he basically bat like Schierholtz who had seen his power killed by Norwich stadium and was a year younger.
That's why I don't think he could survive in MLB as we have seen that lack of patience and BB almost ruins Schierholtz career.
I agree with you that he won't be in the Giants Plan in the future and I hope his stats will be inflated enough by the PCL league to make him a good trade bait.
Dr B. thanks again for all the hard work, your blog is a real pleasure to read and each day I learn something new. I much appreciate all the passionate discussions on our favorite ball club.
I wish you and all your family a happy new year and hope you will still blogging every day
till the first week of November ;-)
GIP
Thanks for all the great comments.
ReplyDeleteAnon,
Yes, player C looks a lot like Jarrett Parker. If he can do that in MLB, he'd be a very good player because he has some tools to go with it. Right now, though, I don't think there's any way Jarrett Parker would break .220 on his BA which doesn't look quite as good as player C's line.
OK, I'll have to get off Sickels' case. Maybe I've just been reacting to some of the jerks that comment on his site more than to him anyway. His grades and especially his comments are very fair and not at all far off from what I would say. He had a lot more B- and C+ than I thought he would.
ReplyDeleteI see he even put Leo Fuentes in the HM section!
Loved Shankbone's comments about rankings.
I'm not blindly adherent to stats. I value the skills that are either unmeasurable or poorly measured by sabermetrics.
ReplyDeleteBut, Fransisco's walk rate is pretty damn alarming. A pitcher will never, ever throw a strike if he doesn't have to.
I don't know if the Giants farm can or will address this. Once you determine that Peguero can hit AAA pitching, then I'd like to see them to start to control his ABs. Give him the red light in the box. Make him watch pitches. For whole ABs. All he's up there to do is watch the pitcher work. Chart pitches in his head. "Get" the difference between an outside FB in the black and one that is 3" further off the plate.
If you are going to be a hacker and not learn about the craft of pitching, you'd better have extraordinary skills. While Peguero has great skills, I don't see him as elite.
Muzzling him at the plate might hurt his numbers, but if the Giants are committed to trying to develop him then you just don't care about the numbers. You care about a guy who can hit MLB pitching.
It concerns me when the Giants make a point to let Belt know he's too timid at the plate. Belt is a whole other complicated issue, but I'm just looking at how the Giants develop hitting.
I don't think, for instance, that Huff's great 2010 coincided with (by far) the most walks he'd had in his career.
I know the other side of this is you don't want to screw up a guy by meddling with his approach. But, it's hard to see how setting up a situation where he study pitchers is a bad thing. (Other than just for his stats)
*I don't think it's a coincidence about Huff's solid 2010 and his elevated walk.
ReplyDeleteAnon,
ReplyDeleteSorry. I did not mean Vlad was a comparison to Pegs. I meant that Sandoval and Vlad are free swingers and do not really have a strike zone. They will swing at everything from their head to their toes. It seems that Pegs is a free swinger as well with his low walk rate.
Roger - I enjoy watching Sandoval bat with the away announcers. They'll go on and on about his hacking, and then he'll take a couple pitches. I think if you project out his missed games the walk/K numbers would be similar. He has shown the ability to walk 50 times a year, with K #s about 80, I think we can all take that.
ReplyDeleteFrankie Pegs is pretty extreme though. I've only seen him play on tv 3-4 times, he was definitely an exciting player to watch, but I agree with the tweener problem and the red flag on the bb's. Still, hitting over 300 in the eastern is pretty good. Can this power fill in? I'd rather have this problem than the OF of 10 years ago: Torcato and Linden. And I'd rather have farm guys like Schierholz and Frankie Pegs than paying pretty big money to Winn, Roberts and of course Rowand. Think about how bad that 2008 OF was - Freddy Lew trying to break in as well. Good time to be a Giants fan for sure.
Oops, that didn't make sense. Project out Pablo's BB/K #s and its similar to his first 2 years. I expect him to get a little more patient, maybe get the BB/Ks close to a 1:1 ratio even, due to being more experienced and this Lasik surgery. He is a gifted hitter for sure. I love that he won Fangraphs Yogi Berra award 2 years running. Not sure if they've done it again this year.
ReplyDeletei see no reason not to expect peguero to be the number 4 of in 2013...he has speed and power
ReplyDeleteim not at all concerned with his bb rate
I think very highly of Peguero, but a lot of his value is tied to whether or not you believe he can play a decent CF. I think he can -- in fact, I think he can be a plus defender in CF. The offensive bar he has to clear in CF is markedly lower than at a corner. The fact that he has the arm for RF just makes him that much more valuable.
ReplyDeleteI also agree with Roger. While an extremely low BB% is a red flag, you have to look at it in context. He's also maintained a low K% at every level -- the lack of plate discipline isn't hampering his ability to put the bat on the ball. And, due to his speed (I would guess) he's consistently putting up high BABIPs -- which a lot of people assume will automatically regress to .300 -- which is not necessarily true. I think he can keep a higher than average BABIP in the majors. All of that adds up to a guy who has a profile to maintain the ability to hit .300 or higher in the majors, which makes him a valuable player -- very valuable in CF and extremely valuable if the power keeps showing up.
Frankie has got speed and contact tools, and it seems he may project for more power, that plus his arm and defense equals 4/5 of the five tools, all five if u agree on his power potential, but i believe somebody at MCC did a study looking at the prospects and above replacement-level major leaguers with walk rates as low as FrankiePegs and suffice to say, that list was astronomically small.
ReplyDeleteI dont think im an all saber guy either, but unless u believe that Frankie Pegs is an extreme outlying talent, Frankie will probably never amount to a replacement-level major leagurer. The odds are just stacked against him.
If u look at DRB's reasoning above, with contact rates, a person who hits .330 in the minors will probably not hit at .330 in the majors, most likely it will be lower, perhaps .300, as a prospect advances, because of the higher talent level, those ridiculous numbers decrease. Walk rates are the same. In the minors, prospects will be taking advantage of players that just cannot find the strike zone, which will happen less in the majors. If a player only draws 10 walks a year, something which Frankie is certainly capable of(this year most of his walks came in High A), do u think he is a good bet to draw EVEN 10 in the majors? Thats staking an awful lot of hope on his contact tool and the promise of power. thats looks like a empty .300 or less, batter. Based on his good D and speed it seems like he profiles a lot more like a 4/5 outfielder than a regular. Definitely not top 5, probably not even top 10 material. Certainly his power could develop and pitchers would pitch more carefully around him, but the odds are strongly against him.
HIRO
Peguero is most certainly an interesting subject. He's put up intriguing numbers, and has definitely looked like a legit prospect at times. And as Dr.B points out, his low OBP holds him back from full credit as a top prospect. Save for the low OBP, most teams would love to have someone like Peguero coming up in their system...which is, in many ways, why I've sort of considered him more as trade bait than an eventual starter for us.
ReplyDeleteWith Nate, Brown, possibly Belt (if Huff/Pill/Posey force the issue), and Melky possibly ahead of him on the depth chart, I figured he could be packaged with someone to acquire to fill a hole elsewhere when the need arises. However, if he puts up good numbers in Fresno, it would put the pressure on Nate to do well in SF. And if he doesn't, perhaps he's the eventual RFer. If Nate and Peguero perform next year, perhaps it allows us to let Melky or Pagan walk. If we kept the former, perhaps a three headed monster in CF/RF: Brown/Peguero/Nate.
Lucky
HIRO,
ReplyDeleteI don't think you can automatically project it that way. You don't have to look any farther than Pablo Sandoval to find an example of somebody who not only succeeded at the MLB level after being written off for the same reasons, but improved his walk rates a after he arrived in the majors. Again, I'll take Frankie Pegs chances over a guy like Anthony Rizzo, who the sabers love.
BTW, it's a miniscule sample size, but Frankie actually drew a few walks in the DWL. Projected to a full season's worth of AB's, it would come out to around 40-45 per season. Even if you look at last year, he drew 11 walks in approximately a half season of AB's, so there's 22 right there.
Do not write off Frankie Pegs because of some statistical analysis of outcomes done on a very small sample size!
My bad on the Yogi Berra award. its hardballtimes, and after Pablo winning it back to back, they gave it to lousy Juan Pierre this year. Boo.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the Sando minor numbers as a comparison is pretty interesting actually. Sando has more power, more walks and less Ks, 2 years younger when he busted out. Overall slash lines look similar though.
You can learn some plate discipline. Jose Reyes did it to some extent, I'm sure there are other examples. But 30 walks in 2 years of MiLB play is pretty extreme.
I'd rather just keep Pegs then have him be the throw in on some injury replacement/sideways move. What do the Giants need now? A corner OF bat, and a play everywhere guy who's good. Preferably right handed, but lets not get too picky. Most fans want Huff gone, and in a year they'll have that one covered. After that? Well, the OF is sort of wide open, but Brown/Panik go to plan, Belt slides to first, then who's the whipping boy? Poor Nate Schierholz? Looking from that perspective, I'm pretty psyched to have Pegs as a 4th OF, a RF, or a backup CF. Giants need cheap players.
It goes back to the negativity with fans. What if he sucks? He can't walk. Well, what if he's good? What then? That's how I feel about Melky Melk and Pagan this year as well.
Somebody over on minorleagueball.com just posted a spreadsheet of BB% and K% for MLB'ers when they were in low A ball. I understand Pegs is higher than low A ball now, but here's a list of players who had low BB%(I was surprised. You might be too):
ReplyDeleteMatt Kemp- 5.2%
Ryan Braun- 5.4%
Jose Reyes- 4.1%
Howe Kendrick- 3.6%
Robinson Cano- 5.7%
Pablo Sandoval- 4.7%
Yadier Molina- 4.9%
Erick Aybar- 3.2%
Brian McCann- 5.3%
Carlos Lee- 4.2%
Neil Walker- 3.9%
Adam Jones- 5.9%
Jeff Francoer-5.3%
Carlos Ruiz- 3.5%
Placido Polanco- 4.6%
Alcides Escobar- 3.6%.
Brennan Boesch- 4.2%
AJ Pierzynski- 4.4%
Nelson Cruz- 5.6%
Ian Desmond- 4.1%
Garrett Jones- 4.6%
Casey McGehee- 3.9%
Carl Crawford- 5.3%
Alex Rios- 4.5%
Jorge Cantu- 5%
As you can see, low walk rates in the minors is not quite the death knell some folks would make it out to be.
Bonjour DrB,
ReplyDeleteI am not sure if you mean that this list could apply to Peguero case.
I just had the time to check the first 6 players and as you can see, this is a situation that is more related to the critics on Brown inability to draw BB. These guys (except Sandoval case) were so good that they didn't need to draw a walk; they just dominate the league (because of power or batting average).
BA Hr OPS
Matt Kemp- 5.2% 288 17 841
Ryan Braun- 5.4% 355 8 1041
Jose Reyes- 4.1% 307 5 (15 triples) 809
Howe Kendrick- 3.6% 367 10 976
Robinson Cano- 5.7% 276 14 767
Pablo Sandoval- 4.7% 265 1 607
I don't mean that Peguero is not good or didn't have any future as an MLB player but that will be the case only if he can develop power and if he can be more selective at the plate.
Can we agree that this is the definition of an "if he" player?
GIP
No, I'm not convinced that Pegs has to develop power or become more selective to succeed. Some of those numbers you put up there are not exactly dominating for the level.
ReplyDeleteI think Pegs CAN develop more power and more selectivity, but I'm not insisting that he has to be in order to be succeed in MLB.