#25 Charlie Culberson, 2B. 6'1", 200 lbs, BD: 4/10/1989. B-R, T-R.
AA: .259/.293/.382, 34 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 14 SB, 4 CS in 553 AB.
That is not a particularly inspiring line for Charlie, and it's disappointing coming after something of a breakout year in SJ in 2010. But, you know what? He's 6 months younger than Gary Brown, so he could repeat AA and still end up at the same age/level as Brown. Culby actually looked really good at times, but he also endured a couple of prolonged slumps. His monthly splits:
April- .290
May- .271
June- .217
July- .278
August- .231
September- .292.
He finished with a flourish hitting .348 over his last 10 games.
While I think the challenge of hitting in the Eastern League is good for Giants hitting prospects, I'm not sure it's a good idea to leave them there too long as the weight of that struggle might just wear them down and break their spirit. I would be inclined to give Culby a passing grade for the level and promote him to Fresno where I think he might put up much better numbers.
Ultimately, Brandon Crawford may hold the key to Culberson's future with the Giants. If Crawford can nail down SS this year, that would probably end up pushing Panik to 2B leaving Culberson the odd man out. If Panik is the SS of the future, though, I could see Culberson moving into the 2B role, possibly as early as 2013 after Franchez' contract is done. Culberson seems like the type of prospect who will have an adjustment period to the majors and will requre some patience, something the Giants have tended to not show their hitting prospects. Possibly he could get a toehold with a utility role and gradually expand that like Nate has done. I see his ceiling as being a .260-.270 hitter with a lot of doubles, about 15 HR's and maybe about 10 SB's, kind of a league average 2B.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Although it would be nice to see Charlie someday in SF, I think 2B is Panik's job to lose. Charlie even has almost the same haircut as Crawford. It was like their barbers thought they were born to turn double plays with each other. Cavan is another 2B who I would like to see more from. Either way I think our future at 2B is bright. I am just not sure which prospect will emerge as the clear favorite for a starting job.
ReplyDeleteI still wonder if Ishikawas development was damaged by him having to play again in Norwich, while Nate got promoted.
ReplyDeleteI think that Crawford can do it, his defense is so good, and I w impressed by his ability to make contact and by the improvement at the end of the season. So I expect Panik to end up at secondbase. That would make Culberson a utility guy for us. He has not really shown much on a consistent basis to make me think otherwise, but you never know.
Ishikawa's development was hampered by the fact that he couldn't hit OR play defense AT ALL at the time. That's the reason why he dropped all the way back down to A. It was more of a reality check for him than anything.
DeleteI guess I beg to differ on the D thing. Travis was always a slick fielder around the bag as far as I can remember. There seemed to be some issue with Machemer who was managing in Connecticut at the time. Don't really know what the issue was.
DeleteOne thing I remember about Travis when I saw him play for SJ was that he had these really big thick heavy thunder legs and was kind of scrawny around the chest and shoulders. He seemed to work hard on his upper body strength as looked better proportioned by the time he came up the Show.
DeleteI beg to differ as well. All the reports on him back then was that he played good MLB defense - which was shown when he came up and played - and what I was referring to was that while he hit for a good average on the road for Norwich, his horrible batting line at Norwich sunk his overall batting line, resulting in him repeating AA (not sure what you are referring to about A-ball, I'll have to check on that).
DeleteI can dig up a few of my blog posts, I wrote plenty on that subject (Norwich's hell of a park, Dodd Stadium)
The Eastern sure does kill helium on prospects. Sandoval and Belt have busted through. Frankie Pegs has held his own. Look at Thomas Neal - went from soaring to nitpicked, and he wasn't that bad in the Eastern. And of course ol' Crawford. Injuries factor into all 3 of those guys as well. Interesting take on Ishi OGC. Nate had 50% more games and put up better BA, OPS, but not by a huge amount. As I recall there was an injury. What is in the water with the injuries?
ReplyDeleteSaw a nice interview on Culberson on sfgiants. He seemed very relaxed about his ups and downs. Acknowledged the pitching, and how the teams get a book on you and pound your weaknesses. His big advantage is he's young, and can hit a bit. The K's are a bit worrisome but he's under 20% for his milb career.
Speaking of utility guys, sort of surprised the G's weren't in on Scutaro. I thought they might trade RamRam for Scutaro, although I'm very pleased to have Pagan instead, much more upside and just as much a position of need. Its funny how value shifts. I thought for sure the Sox had a great trade chip when they picked up his option. A few Alex Gonzo/Jamey Carroll signings later, everybody's all set? I would think he would be a perfect caddy/Sanchez insurance, albeit a bit expensive now. The pitcher the Rocks gave up is in my opinion better than most people are saying though. These are the moves I wonder how it goes. Seems like the Giants would be one of the first calls for shopping Marco on a salary dump.
The Rockies have done some very strange things this winter. They've been stockpiling gas cans, but then trade a guy who I think has a chance to be pretty good. At least he looked dang good against the Giants, but then, everybody looked good against the Giants last year. Did they really need another veteran MI?
DeleteScutaro's salary is $6 M this year which we call know by now is way out of the Giants price range. Is Scutaro really worth as much as Melky Cabrera? I know I'd definitely rather have the LHP's than Scoots.
I liked the Bosox pickup of Mike Aviles last year, who wasn't getting the time of day from Ned Yost. Maybe they feel comfortable with Punto and Aviles. Scutaro was a pretty consistent force last year for them though.
DeleteBoth the D-backs and the Rocks are loading up with pieces that don't make a ton of sense to me. Mortensen sure did look good against the Giants. I think the Bosox pitching coaches are not up to par, but maybe they see a back end starter in the making.
I don't think Scutaro is worth either Pagan or Cabrera, and most likely not Affeldt either. Still, if Freddy does go down, we might be holding a low card in this game. Its not too late for The Riot, I'm curious how many teams are fishing in those waters. One thing about The Riot, he used to steal a ton of bases, that fell off last year. He would be a fine pinch running substitute for Burriss and he can actually mash lefties. His D is not up to Handy Manny levels though, especially range, so it is a compromise. If his asking price dips to Hobbit levels, and the Giants get Timmy straight and are at 128MM or so, I can see The Riot being The Answer. Given up on the 4th OF RH bat though, I don't think that's happening.
At this point, I'm guessing the Giants will leave any room they end up with under $130 M for mid-season upgrades. Any more moves prior to ST will be minor league deals.
DeleteRockies already had Herrera, Chris Nelson and EY Jr. to compete for 2B. Herrera isn't really very good, but Nelson has a bit of pop and some upside while EY Jr had a .342 OBP with 27 SB's in part time play. I'm really not sure how much they helped themselves with the Scutaro trade.
DeleteMaybe the Rocks are just fed up with the prospects who can't quite make it, Stewart, EY Jr, Herrera, even Fowler. You could view Cuddyer as "we're keeping CarGo in Center, enough of this Fowler stuff". So they're going scrappy good vet clubhouse instead. They'll lose a fair amount of athleticism and defensive range with this strategy.
DeleteThis is part of what I've been saying, the Giants (meaning Sabean) has been trying to give their better prospects a chance to show what they got, so if they had gotten Scutaro, what if Crawford hit as well as everyone hoped and Franchez was relatively healthy, then we have a $6M utility guy sitting on the bench unless the Giants do what they are accused of doing, playing the vet and sitting Crawford down.
DeleteMeanwhile, instead, we got Pagan who actually fills a position that is open for us and we didn't have anybody internal who was likely to fill it as well (Torres is too much of a coin toss right now; what a nice guy, still said nice things about the Giants afterward, which is what a good person should do, they gave him the opportunity and now he's making multi-millions this season, which in his native country would probably qualify as super wealthy that he could retire on.
I didn't say that Ishikawa was doing as well as Schierholtz overall, but if one looked at his splits that season, he actually hit very well on the road (not great, but well), but just could not figure out Dodd Stadium (he and almost everyone else in the Eastern League). I think being forced to hit in a place you have no confidence in just puts the player in a bad place, no matter how confident he is, and that wears down on him, he's only human. I think it would have been better to push him to AAA like Nate and see how he did, it was not like we had another 1B prospect who might be ready soon, and if he doesn't do well, then bounce him to AA mid-season.
So I'm not saying that Ishikawa was an equal talent to Nate, but with power and patience like he exhibited, along with his defense and our pitching, he would have been OK at 1B if he could hit high .700 OPS, which he was doing in the middle of his first full season in the majors. That repeat of AA perhaps costed us another useful season out of him and perhaps he could have been adequate enough that he could have pushed Huff last season, instead of ending up pushed to the minors.
Great analysis on Culberson. You pretty much nailed it exactly.
ReplyDeleteAh, DrB, straight from the horses mouth...
ReplyDeletehttp://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/21/q-a-with-tom-seaver/?ref=baseball
I keep on harping on Tom Seaver as the reason to hold onto Timmy and Cain, well there you are for your statement of Cain pitching like Seaver. Seaver is of the opinion both can pitch for a long time (I'm implying it on Cain but he says it for Timmy). From a PR angle, I think the Giants trading Timmy would be a disaster.
Amen. Timmy for Two. And Schulman just reported the Giants and Timmy at $40M vs. $44M for 2 years. Now that's a gap that can be closed given what Timmy means to this team and given that the Giants still have a one year fallback to arb for leverage. A deal will get done here.
DeleteYes, you have Shankbone. I've also seen some other people talk about their mechanics being very similar.
DeleteYes, trading Lincecum would be a PR disaster. It would be an even bigger disaster for the actual team if he leaves us in two years and all we get is a lousy supplemental draft pick.
Looks the Giants and Timmy are very close to a two year deal. Hopefully this is just to get a deal done now so that they can discuss a longer deal, but I suspect not, else may as well do a one year deal then do the long term.
What were the numbers? $17M and $21.5M I think, so it is already above those numbers for even the Giants offer of $40M. the total of the two is "only" $38.5M.
culberson was just picked as one of the top 10 second baseman in all the minors
ReplyDeletehaving depth in the if is a good thing...will allow for injury and trade
dont really have to worry about this till 2013....unless freddy goes down again next season
Bad beat tonight for the Red and Gold.
ReplyDeleteand then this...Heyman writes that baseball people believe that Cain could match Cliff Lee's $120MM deal as a free agent if he tests the market after the year, but word is that he badly wants to stay in San Francisco. Those in the industry also believe that if Lincecum can put together two more outstanding years, he can become the game's first $200MM pitcher on the open market in 2013.
Its just Heyman, I'd take it with the usual pound of salt, but it all makes sense. The best thing the Giants can do is get Cain long term, and then try their best with timmy. If he really wants 200MM, go for it. You play it like the Cards played Pujols. We tried our best. I don't think trading a franchise player is a good move ever. Let him leave, save your money, take your measly draft picks. Its not worth the fans good will to shuffle him off. If he wants to be that greedy, that's his business, take the high road.
Word is Timmy turned down a 5 year $100+ M offer from the Giants. That's a lot of do-re-mi to walk away from. I'm thinking Timmy may end up regretting that and the Giants may breath a sigh of relief that he did walk away at some point in the future.
DeleteI still think you try to trade Timmy at some point if you can get more value than the draft pick compensation in return. Let the pitchfork mob rage. It's still what's best for the long range health of the team.
The Giants have always been about winning now, though. I think they will try to squeeze one more championship out of Timmy even if they are convinced he is leaving.
BTW, no way should the Giants ever try to match or best a $200 M offer for Timmy. No way, no how!
Wow, turned down $100M (and if the Giants are offering $40M for two years, a 5 year deal is really closer to $110M) in order to get a Pujols sized deal. That's a lot of gambling. Takes a lot of cajones too, thought he liked it here but clearly he is more about the money, which is what I feared because of the way he has acted before, but which I didn't think any pitcher would do, giving the inherent fragility of their profession.
DeleteGood for him, that is his prerogative, as the saying goes.
Likewise, trading Lincecum for the bushel of prospects he should net is the best move for the franchise, should that time come, assuming they can get such a bundle from somebody who thinks they can talk Lincecum into staying, or at least start the wooing process in earnest. Such a move would take a similar pair of cajones and would be on par with, say, a team trading a beloved player like Matt Williams.
If we can get a pitcher ready for the majors with the potential to be a front liner at some point, plus another with potential for top of rotation, and a position player who is nearly ready, I think the Giants would need to seriously think about trading him next off-season. He's not staying here if he's turning down 5 years at $100M+, 10 years at over $200M is too much risk to take with any pitcher, no matter how good he's been in the majors.
If we were GM's we can't let personal sentiment or public sentiment interfere with making the right moves for the franchise. Even Matt Holliday got a bundle of good players out of the A's (of course, that could have been a factor of Beane's incompetence as a GM in understanding the talent level of the players) for one year. Of course, Minnesota really didn't get much of anything for Santana. Still, that was the right move to do, getting rid of him to keep the current core of players capable of winning championships for us.
I would rather spend our money keeping Posey happy and around long-term, I think he's more critical for our future success than Lincecum, based on what happened in 2011 after Posey went down. I still hope they can sign him long term this off-season, that would take the sting out of Lincecum not giving us a few of his free agent years.
Heck, I would rather we keep Lincecum around, but if he does not want to be around, that is his right, but it does not mean that we need to let one of the pistons of the Giants engine go without any future replacement value, that would certainly stall the upward trajectory we have with our core of players, both pitching and position.
Sabean has always been about winning now, putting the most competitive team on the field. I think you are underestimating the depth and force of the pitchfork mob in a trade Timmy scenario. This is the face of your franchise and the guy who's back you rode out of the doldrums. Every casual fan knows him. Personally I don't mind the agent playing agent games, or Timmy being evasive. It's a business and you treat it like a business negotiation. We have no idea either way, if he's all about the money - the ego of having the biggest contract ever. He does have the hardware for it.
DeleteI think trying to win the next two years and then putting the best effort possible is much better than trading off for prospects. The protect the franchise cuts both ways - you can seriously damage your brand and fan support with the wrong move. Yes, I'll just say Seaver and Perry one more time. No way would I want the Gints to put up 200MM for Timmy though. Keep trying for something in the middle.
The Cards played Pujols to perfection. There is a good lesson in that. Getting the value out of him (which yes, they hit on in spades) is worth a whole lot as well. Trading Timmy for prospects when he might pitch us into and through the postseason in 2013? You are leaving a lot on that table as well. I say keep him, try and sign him and ride it out. And I'm confident that is what Sabey Sabes will do.
It is funny about fan support, as long as the Giants are winning, they will probably still come out to the ballpark, grumbling.
DeleteHey, I think Lincecum is a once in a lifetime talent too. I was dumbfounded by the Gaylord Perry trade for Sudden Soused Sam McDowell, as well as the George Foster trade, as my intro to crazy trades, so you can stop preaching about those HOF pitchers to me.
But there is no way we can pass up the influx of talent that trading him would bring us next off-season if he's still unwilling to sign a long extension with us next season, at least if we hope to stay one of the top teams in the NL in the latter half of the 2010 decade. Losing him would put a big hurt on our ability to do that if we don't get talent back for him instead of a measly supplemental first round pick.
The only way we could remedy that is if a big name pitcher goes on the free agent market after the 2013 season. And we would have to outbid everyone else, including the Yankees, though we would be lucky that Lincecum would overshadow anybody else available.
I thought of another angle which Lincecum might be thinking, that he wants a short deal now because he's aware of his declining stats, so he's going to work hard the next two seasons to boost up his stats so that he'll get a contract based on that instead of a declining stat lines.
But I go both ways, sometimes at the same time, like quantum mechanics, where I say, yeah, keep him here, I hated trading away all those Giants greats over the years, like the above, Bobby Bonds, etc.
Still, I come to the same conclusion and cold-hearted fact, there is less than 5% chance that the pick near the beginning of the second round could be a good player but when you trade him for a bucket of players, like in the Dan Haren trade, especially since Sabean's scouts are pretty good at identifying players and prospects, I have to think that the odds are much greater, at least double, if not at least 50/50.
So, yeah, it could be another New Coke debacle, but if he picks up the talent I hope he will, Sabean would have done the right baseball decision in trading Lincecum if Lincecum clearly is not interested in a long-term extension after the 2012 season.
If the Rays have not won by then, they might be willing to back up the truck and give us a lot of prospects (especially if they are as good at that 2% as the book claims they are) and near ready prospects for that last piece for a championship Lincecum. Royals too. I also wonder if Washington might give up a lot for him, as they seem to have a lot of money to throw around and could harbor thoughts of resigning him to a long extension.
If things go as planned the Giants will be knee deep in a pennant race ourselves. We're going to pull out of that and get prospects? Brian Sabean, near the end of his career where he's never done that ever? Tall order.
DeleteOne thing I've thought of is things are constantly in motion. What looked like a sound strategy 3 months ago doesn't match priorities now. There is an "Off-season review" where overall the moves don't make the most sense, unless you put em in chronological order and go through it.
I'm trying to be consistent, chase windmills til the end on Timmy. Your point about draft picks versus a bucket of scouted minor league tested prospects is sound. I'm going to ignore it and focus on ex-Giant mistakes, mixed records for ace tradings and trust in Sabean headstrongness for the moment. I see it more likely we will be in a position to win than the Rays or Royals, and I doubt those prospect loving organizations would back the truck up for anything.
Yeah, I'm not talking mid-season unless another team really backs up the bank and drop a lot of good prospects on the Giants. I think the most logical would be next off-season.
DeleteYes, I agree that those teams might not be in a great position, but that would be my point, they might feel that they are one away and want to do something now, some people just can't wait sometimes. The owners get tired of losing and losing and tells the GM to call the Giants up and see what they want for Lincecum. Or better, they get close in 2012 but are just short, and think Lincecum is the key.
But you are right, it would be very hard to trade, not saying that is not true, but I still think that is the best baseball decision to do, though if the Giants should win the World Championship again in 2012, in that case, I think you are right, the outrage would be too much for the ownership to take, plus they would want to defend the title. Then the only way a trade could be made is if the Giants somehow are not competitive in 2013 and he gets traded mid-season.
I think Shankbone's scenario is the one the Giants will most likely take, although I can't say I agree with it. Another point to consider: Timmy's camp may say no to things now that they might not say no to on the courthouse steps going into an arbitration hearing. If I were the Giants, I would offer a set of options for Timmy to choose from: 2 years/$40 M, 4 years/$80 M, 5 years/$100 M. Then, tell Timmy and his agent they can choose any of those options or they can go through with the arbitration hearing and risk ending up with $17 M for 1 year. I don't know which of the options Timmy would choose in that scenario, but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be to go into the arbitration hearing. His smartest choice would be to take the 5 years/$100 M option, IMO.
ReplyDeleteThat's a great idea. Lincecum's salaries thus far has fit into the saber calc of 40/60/80 where a guess I saw for super 2 was 30%, resulting in a free market salary equivalent of roughly $30M for his last contract. The Giants $17M fits that line and it is not like he topped himself in his last two seasons, so an arbitrator should award the Giants figure, not Lincecum's.
DeleteThus, they can see which deal seems more palatable to them.
I still think the 5 year, $100M deal doesn't make sense for Lincecum, it is an additional season at the same $20M AAV, it should really be more like $110-115M if raises are taken into account. And same for the 4 years, $80M deal, should be more like $85-90M, for Lincecum's side to look at it and think more about it.
But I love your idea, and hope the Giants are doing something like this.