Sunday, January 1, 2012

Down on the Farm: #4 Heath Hembree

#4 Heath Hembree, RHP. 6'4", 205 lbs. BD: 1/13/1989.

High A: 0-0, 0.73, 24.2 IP, 12 BB, 44 K, 21 Saves.

AA: 1-1, 2.83, 28.2 IP, 13 BB, 34 K, 17 Saves.

Heath Hembree's stock rose pretty dramatically too in 2011. In his first full season, he got on the closer track and rode it all the way up to AA. He overpowered hitters in both the Cal League and Eastern League with an explosive FB that sat at 96 MPH the day I saw him early in the season. I've read reports of him hitting 98-99 MPH at times. According to Baggs' write up in BA, he has a slider with the makings of a plus pitch, but his changeup is a work in progress. Hembree is a strikeout pitcher who likes to work up the the zone as evidenced by a GO/AO= 0.55. He tends to "climb the ladder" with the FB.

Hembree didn't have much a a college career pitching for 3 different schools. He's one of those scouting finds the Giants have become somewhat famous for. They grabbed him in the 5'th round of the 2010 draft.

As some of you know, I am not a big fan of the "closer track". Yes, it allows for rapid ascent in the system, but it also doesn't challenge pitchers to develop secondary stuff nor does it give them the time. Hembree may have the stuff to take it all the way to the majors, or maybe he can still develop his secondary stuff while closing in the minors. At some point you have to think MLB hitters are going to catch up with him if he isn't able to throw them off balance just a bit. I expect to see Hembree esconced in the closer role with Fresno to start the season, but the Giants are going to have a bullpen slot available for the taking in spring training. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hembree sitting in the Giants bullpen come opening day.

27 comments:

  1. Man, John Sickels must just hate the Giants. He's got his preliminary list up at minorleagueball.com and it has just 39 names on it. There is no Leo Fuentes, no RafRod, no Alex Burg, no Cody Hall, no Kentrell Hill, no Demondre Arnold. I can tell by the whole tone of what he's said so far and the comments from his readership and this list that it ain't gonna be pretty.

    I know it's tough to keep up with the prospects in every organization, but the man does this for a living. It's disappointing that he seems to have such a superficial knowledge of the Giants system and appears to be unenthusiastic about learning more about it.

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  2. No Jake Dunning, Jacob Dunnington, Stephen Harrold either.

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  3. On the other hand, as of 9:15am anyways, he does have Clayton Tanner on the list.

    BTW, I also thought that my wife and I were the only people on the planet who have never been to a New Years Eve Party, although she was a party animal before she met me. She tells me that's how pathetic I am.

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  4. Oh, and Happy New Year, and thanks again for this blog, and thanks for allowing us to post anonymously.

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  5. i stopped going to nye parties when i was 25...they are just silly excuses to get roaring drunk

    as for hembree...not so worried about him using secondary pitches...he can develop one when called up...better mentors in the bigs

    can easily see him being a right hand setup this season

    if hembree continues on this path, makes it much easier for the team to trade bwiz

    would hate to lose wilson, but his salary is about to bust through the roof

    as for the whole "closer" track...i like it

    lets face it...some guys are meant to be in the pen...some are not

    and to be a closer, one has to be a bit twisted

    and from what ive read of hembree, he has the closer mentality

    2 months till pitchers and catchers report

    dang....really hate getting old...time goes by just like that

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  6. And a happy new year to everybody!

    I just put up a few names on Sickels list for him to mull over or ignore. Didn't think I was being too negative in the discussion segment, I did throw a quick zing at Sabean, maybe the photo Sickels put up got me going. Sabey Sabes gets a new Droid Razr under the tree this year so he can update his photo maybe? Apparently he is still wearing his 2002 ring to remind himself of how fleeting it can be.

    I bet there will be a lot of C, C+ grades, and at this point that might be fair with so many of these guys in the low minors. That can change in a hurry I think.

    Don't know much about this Stephen Harrold character, you like him enough to outrank my man Shawn Payne though? Wow. Like the K/BB ratio from a year ago, looks like they're moving him aggressively.

    One little thing to point out about Mr. Sabean - he wins another WS, he's going to the hall of fame. THAT will be hilarious to watch/read haters foam at the mouth about. Will Keith Law withhold his vote? The Astros are apparently trying to convince Mr. Law to leave the snark bidness actually.

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  7. bacci - I agree with you on the closer mentality. Something Wilson has in spades. The guys at Raising Matt Cain are doing a 12 days of Giants and just did a profile on Wilson. Despite his flair for digging a hole for himself to make things dramatic, he has been a great pitcher for us. And turning into Mo Riv at just the right moment was absolute magic. I think there is a big case for him being the MVP of the 2010 run. I do hope he's healthy, and I hope he goes back to simple pitches, not that ninja curve ball thingee that might have been the reason he got hurt. And the antics stretch only as long as he's pitching well for me.

    Hembree is a pretty interesting prospect. I know a lot of people seem to be up in arms because he's a reliever, and those guys aren't supposed to be the top prospects, but having a guy with that velocity is great, if he has the quirky closer personality to go with it. It is a specialized position, no matter how you feel about the 3 run lead save, etc. With the game on the line, gas can lit, Wilson has done a lot more good than harm for us. Good to have another guy in the wings.

    I'm definitely going to spring training this year, psyched about it.

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  8. Hembree's value to the Giants, right now, is much higher than to a "normal" team.

    1. He potentially extends what has become a dominate bullpen and a definitive competitive advantage for the Giants, especially in the playoffs.

    2. He potentially allows the Giants to trade Brian Wilson, just as Wilson is about to become very expensive in 2013. While I love Wilson's SF style beard swagger and his shutdown 2010 playoff relieving, he must be seen as the most likely high-cost player to turnover for the Giants. This allows the Giants to keep/pay the big 5 core.

    DocB agree/disagree on the Closer Track approach. For most teams, yes, drafting and fast tracking a closer makes little sense. But for the Giants to continue to field a cost-controlled dominate bullpen they must draft and fast track for the closer/set-up bullpen jobs. Just a fact of life for the Giants cost strategy - and one which seems to suit Sabes and the Giants ability to pick and produce major league arms very well.

    Happy New Year to all...

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  9. Just want to say, thanks for coming here and reading, everybody. I appreciate the quality of the comments. I think the comments section of this blog has become one of its signature characteristics and I'm really proud of the little community we've got going here. I'm pretty much of a libertarian when it comes to comments. I don't care of you go anon as long as the comments are constructive and contribute to a better understanding of the Giants and the game of baseball. If you come here to cause trouble, I'll hit the button on you though, so watch it. I've only had to do that once in the history of the blog which I think is pretty remarkable.

    When I think of the wasteland the Giants bullpen became after they lost Robb Nen, yeah, BWeez has been a pretty special player. As has been pointed out, he is getting very expensive, maybe a bit full of himself and I'm concerned about the health of his flinger. I agree that an upper 90's fastball is a great commodity whether it belongs to a future starter or closer, so have no problem with Hembree being ranked this high either.

    It's just from a player development perspective that I like to see pitchers getting more innings in the minors to stretch them out and force them to use more pitches. Could be wrong about that though.

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  10. John Sickels got a little testy over all the great suggestions from Giants fans over on his site. He's written off RafRod. OK, but Raffy didn't turn 19 until late in the season. To me, he's shown enough that I'm not willing to write him off after his age 18 season. Sickels system is very stats driven. He really doesn't know what to do with players who scout really well, but have not put up any stats or "tools" players who may not have broken out yet. Thus, he won't even look at a guy like Kentrell Hill or a Leo Fuentes, or instance.

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  11. The Giants have started to accumulate a large number of very young, high ceiling players who you aren't necessarily going to see a lot of stats from in their first couple of pro seasons, but who might break out at any time. Of course a lot of them won't, but the more of these you accumulate, the more likely 1 or 2 of them will make it big and that's all you need. The fact they have also continued to acquire lower risk players like Brown and Panik is pretty remarkable. These are factors that make the Giants system a lot better than it looks on the surface. Hopefully we can bring that notion to life as we profile the Giants prospects on this site.

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  12. I like razin' Anon's - having a handle allows future discussions to have some history, and I like the distinct personalities that come out. Also, I have read blogs for years without ever commenting, so I encourage folks to take the extra plunge. Its nice to have the choice though for sure, and the one post delete record for your blog is something to be proud of for sure, that's amazing in the age of interwebz idiocy.

    The thing that stands out for me DrB is the constructive nature of comments, the maturity to avoid small tiffs, and the respectful tones even in disagreement. Good stuff.

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  13. btw....totally forgot to thank doc for a year of hard work...done totally out of love

    pretty amazing with physician and family responsibilities

    and thanks for putting up with my crap

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  14. i know this is a bit in the future but who do you believe out of the upper prospects is the most likely to get traded if need to be? is it joseph because he's blocked?

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  15. I think the Giants saw their proverbial life flash before their eyes when Buster Posey got hurt last year. It tells you something when they risked losing out of Ricky Oropesa to draft Susac when they already had Joseph and Hector Sanchez in the organization. They are going to hang onto their catchers as long as they can.

    I'm gonna say maybe Frankie Pegs is the most likely to get sent out in a package deal. More about him in the next installment.

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  16. I think Joseph sticks around since the blocking will only be for so long. They could platoon 2 guys at C with Sanchez and Joseph once they move Posey to another position, wondering if he could conceivably play 2B or if his range wouldn't allow it. Could be like Jeff Kent maybe. Lets assume that either Crawford or Panik makes it at SS in the next few years, Posey at 2B would almost be as valuable as having him at C.

    Dr. B, your site rocks. I feel like I learn something new here every time I log on. It is also incredibly addicting as I can never get enough Giants 411.

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  17. Thanks Pato, glad to have you on board.

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  18. where do you think the giants rank in terms of systems in the mlb?

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  19. Well, before I answer that, I need to say a couple of things about rankings:

    1. Rankings are a snapshot of the minor league system in its current state at whatever time the rankings are made and are limited to only those players who have not "graduated". The term "graduated" is a technical term that does not necessarily reflect the true status of the "prospect." For instance, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford have both "graduated" but neither is really an established major leaguer either.

    2. Different evaluators have different criteria for deciding how that rank a system and there is a strong dose of subjectivity involved in all rankings. Some evaluators, like John Sickels, rely heavily on statistical analysis. Others rely more on "tools" and scouting reports. Some value having 1 or 2 elite prospects at the top of the system over having a "deep" system.

    I believe both BA and John Sickels will rank the Giants system in the bottom 3'rd of baseball. I believe the Giants system is generally underrated right now for the following reasons:

    1. Belt and Crawford, but especially Belt, are not being counted as prospects.

    2. The Giants 2 top prospects, Brown and Panik do not project only as solid players rather than potential superstars.

    3. The Giants have a large number of young, high ceiling prospects who have the potential to break out and become elite prospects, but have not done so yet.

    Personally, I would rate the Giants system more middle of the pack right now with potential to be a lot higher next year.

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  20. Point #2 above should read that Brown and Panik DO project only as solid players rather than potential superstars.

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  21. I just went back to Sickels and he did lay this down to a dissin' commentator about our system: it's not that bad. A lot of the Grade C types have potential but are just far away.

    He did respond to the guys I threw up there, giving up on RafRod, but including Roger K. Not impressed with the skinny Dunning/Dunnington fellers apparently though. I think RafRod and Chuckie Jones are in the same boat - insanely young hyped athletes who need some time. But way too early to give up on either. I did throw down the Alex Burg suggestion for you DrB.

    I completely agree with your statement on Posey/life flash. Sabean's comments on Cousins was just the tremor going through. I would think that Big Chris D might not have a spot to play, and with a good half season in Fresno could be prime trade bait, along with Frankie Pegs.

    The Giants system is under the radar for sure. Its hard to build it when we're making trades to bolster the big team, drafting late in the rounds (past 2 years at least). They are making some very interesting picks though. I really liked our draft last year. The highest rated drafts were either teams picking early (Nationals), going huge over slot and early (Pirates), the last hurrah of the manipulate the Type B Reliever and load up (Tampa Bay) or the spend huge and manipulate (Bosox). Given what we had to work with, I think the Giants on that comparative level came out looking great. The team that had the best draft though was Arizona in my opinion, those pitchers scare me. CBA should help equalize the field some, which will be advantage Giants.

    Lots of guys, especially the start of the restock with Mejia, Crick and Blackburn, who will toil in low-A, DSL, etc where the stats aren't as clear or credible. They'll take time to build hype most likely. Also, I think the rep of the Giants never developing hitters sticks with them, even with Sando, Posey and now Belt staring people in the face. Hitting seems to lead a lot of the time, both on sportscenter and in the minds of fans. That's just not where its at at this moment in time for Los Gigantes... But it'll change... Sooner than later I think.

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  22. Hmm....Sounds like Sickels may be surprise me a bit here. The comment about a lot of grade C types having potential but are just far away is pretty much what I say too. Thanks for putting Alex Burg's name out there. Hope he as least looks up his stats which I should think would impress him.

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  23. Sickels just posted his top 20. I think he was pretty fair. I like Sickels, especially the reevaluations he does later. While he is a tough grader, he is also one of the most thoughtful, and open about his methodology. Lots of C/C+ guys but room to grow. No surprises there really. Chris D being left off the 20 for Conor G maybe?

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  24. And buried in the others: Dunning/Dunnington/Burg. Was this from Shank's cage rattling? Hmmm...

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  25. Shankbone, your long comment just above stole most of what I was going to add. :^) I couldn't have said it better (though most probably longer :^D)

    I like Sickels site. Yes, he is more stats oriented, but that comes out of him cutting his teeth working for the legendary Bill James. As much as I admire his work, I also think that he picks up a long via his blog/website, as there are a lot of people there feeding him information, giving his targets to research and refine his opinions.

    I like that he is another strong voice out there on prospects and draft picks. He was one of the few who viewed the Giants picking of Panik not as a negative, noting that Panik had risen to a supp first rounder so the pick was not outrageous in his mind, it was fine to him.

    I like the ranking so far, DrB. About Hembree, I would add that the Giants historically is not committed to keeping a player as a starter or reliever, depending on need in the majors. Beck was a starter then made a reliever, Russ Ortiz a closer made into a starter, even Wilson was a starter in college, they put him in relief as recovery from TJS, but even up until his promotion to majors, the chatter on MLB.com articles was that the Giants were not sure if he was a starter or reliever/closer yet.

    I think he's the reason they felt safe trading Ramirez away, and perhaps is the reason he was traded, to create an opportunity for Hembree to take a spot if he is capable. I think Mota also might take that spot, if Zito ends up losing starting spot and ends up reliever, he would be the long man.

    I still think that RafRod has potential to reach the majors and do something. He's just too young to give up on yet, given that he wasn't overmatched when playing against prospects 2-3-4 years older and more experienced than he is. But he will need to put up some numbers soon to reach the potential he was signed for. But even then, if he can come up and be an average corner OF for us, that would be a win in my mind, but that is not viewed as a win in the prospecting world, as that is a downside to his potential, I find that better prospects who fall get a lot of negatives that sticks to them, like Sandoval when he had his struggles, even though he was still showing good bat discipline in respect to avoiding strikeouts. That is why I still like Pegs and Hector Sanchez.

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  26. Thanks OGC - if you want to see me in action I'm mixing it up on Sickels site a bit - damn, defending Brian Sabean again! This is going to kill my interwebz rep.

    I left a couple things in the Pato arguments/Panik post if you want to check that out also.

    I just left this comment for Sickels, but its one of my bugaboos - I like that he reevaluates his work. Way too many people won't admit being wrong or try to grow. I like that about him too. I think his grades were pretty fair. We just don't have a lot of stars right now, but overall its a really exciting farm.

    Your comments about starting/relieving makes me really want to know what they are planning for Josh Osich. I really like his college record and would love for the G's to be patient with him and possibly get a 2/3 starter, lefty to boot out of the equation. That would be great, and a total steal. The injuries and dead arm seem like such a huge question mark.

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