Fantasy Impact: Starting Pitchers

Starting pitching from a fantasy perspective is difficult to write about because the subject is so huge and there are multiple strategies that work. Rather than make yet another list of starting pitchers, best to worst, I'll make a few observations that I've found helpful and maybe take a brief look at some specific pitchers who I think will help your team.

In general, I think the common strategy of not drafting pitchers in the early rounds is sound. But that has more to do with what other teams in your league are doing than with inherent unpredictability of pitchers. I mean, is Tim Lincecum any more likely to get injured or have a bad season than, say, Jose Reyes or Grady Sizemore were last year? or Manny Ramirez? Vlad Guerrero? David Wright? With so many fantasy mags and websites espousing the "7 and 7 rule" as a tenet of faith, it's reasonably safe to wait several rounds before drafting pitching so you can get in on the feeding frenzy of drafting top hitters. Still, I want to be one of the first owners drafting pitching, so I wouldn't necessarily wait until round 8 to start. My strategy would usually be to draft hitting in the first 3-4 rounds while watching for any signs of someone else jumping into the pitching line. Then try to grab an ace starter or two and then a couple of closers before turning my attention back to hitting.

Wins are a crapshoot in MLB. 7 innings is considered essentially a complete game for starters these days and enough games are decided in the last 2 innings that wins are extremely fungible except for very top aces. A lot of leagues have more than one percentage stat too. in my league, it's ERA and WHIP(Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched). If you are in a weekly head-to-head league, this means that one disastrous start can ruin 2 or your 5 categories almost before the week gets started. So, while you do want an ace or two anchoring your staff, you also want consistent pitchers farther down your rotation, guys who will rack up the quality starts with very few shellings in between. That's why a pitcher like Matt Cain, who a lot of fantasy mags dis, is extremely valuable as your #3 starter. The trick, in my book, is to try to accumulate as many Matt Cain type pitchers in the middle rounds of the draft as possible. Often, you have to use most of your midseason roster moves to adjust your starting staff to maintain a deep rotation.

ERA is a notoriously unpredictable stat, so that means most leagues have two categories, Wins and ERA that are difficult to predict. K's and Walks are more stable indicators with injury being the only wild card in these categories. There is a mountain written in fantasy mags and websites and sabermetric sites about things like BABIP that attempt to ferret out what pitchers got "lucky" or "unlucky" in posting a low or high ERA. I'll keep it simple for you here. Look for pitchers with high strikeout rates(>7/9 IP) and low walk rates(3.5 or less.) If you do that, you have a great chance of getting a low ERA and WHIP along with it and Wins are a throw in.

I don't particularly like groundball pitchers from a fantasy perspective. They tend to not get a lot of K's and they tend to have games where the sinker isn't sinking and then they get lit up ruining your ERA and WHIP categories. Of course, there are always exceptions and you wouldn't pass up a Chris Carpenter or Cliff Lee just because they don't have great K rates.

I like young pitchers. Young, hard throwing pitchers, that is. I know it's a fantasy axiom that young pitching will break your heart, but if you pay attention to little things, young pitching can be your best bargains. I look for young pitchers whose stock may have fallen, yet they maintained their K and Walk rates, or else maintained their K rate, but lowered their Walk rate. Homer Bailey in Cincy would be an example of a formerly highly touted pitching prospect who as scuffled, but showed signs of turning it around late last year. He's the type of pitcher I target late in the draft or even on the free agent market after the season starts if he starts out good. I look for young pitchers, in their second year back from Tommy John surgery. Occasionally, a pitcher will come roaring back from TJ like nothing happened or even with an extra 3-4 MPH on the fastball. More often, they struggle a bit in the first season or even two and then breakout big. Francisco Liriano would fit that mold to a T this year. Clay Bucholz is another one who might be kind of a hybrid. He's bounced back and forth between MLB and the minors, had some nagging injuries, but appears poised to grab a starting pitcher gig with Boston and he already has a no-hitter to his credit! Jonathan Sanchez in San Francisco has breakout written all over him. He's always had tremendous K rates and great stuff, he's just walked too many batters. Last year, after throwing the no-hitter, he gained confidence and lowered his walk rates significantly. Look for a breakout this year!

I look for pitchers from teams with pitcher friendly home parks. Mediocre pitchers everywhere else will likely put up acceptable or even good numbers in San Diego, Los Angeles(Dodgers), San Francisco, Oakland and Seattle(Notice they are mostly on the west coast?). The Mets may fall into the same category, too early to tell for sure. I stay away from anything less than ace starters in Coors Field, Cincinnati, Texas, and most AL East teams. Clayton Richard is a pitcher who I think will benefit greatly from pitching in the San Diego and the NL West. Kevin Correia is a good bet to keep putting up good numbers for San Diego. I absolutely love Brett Anderson coming into his second full season in a great pitcher's park with a great defense behind him. Watch for Cliff Lee to put up jaw dropping numbers in Seattle, again a great pitcher's park with a great defense behind him.

I'll post more about specific pitchers as the season approaches and gets started.