Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Fantasy Impact: Closers

Just signed up for my fantasy league. My team, the Savvy Vets will be defending their league championship. I'll keep you posted on their progress as the season goes along. We get to keep 3 position players and 3 pitchers in our league. I'm pretty happy with mine: Prince Fielder, Justin Upton, Brian McCann, CC Sabathia, Matt Cain and Tommy Hanson.

Closers might be the most interesting position in fantasy baseball. At any given time, there are 30 closers in MLB, 1 for each team. Most fantasy teams have 2-3 RP positions, and another 2-3 P positions that can be either starters or relievers. Saves is the only category unique to relievers, and for all practical purposes only closers get Saves. Put that all together, and in a 10 team league, there are potentially 50 spots where you would like to have a closer and only 30 closers to choose from making Closers the position of greatest relative scarcity. It only gets worse in larger leagues.

What makes the position even more scarce is that there are only about 20 closers who enter the season secure in their role. This is where you want to start looking at potential "closers in waiting." A perfect example would be the LA Angels where Brian Fuentes saved 48 games last year, but they acquired Fernando Rodney, who saved 31 games for Detroit last year, in the offseason, setting up a potential co-closer situation or a mid-season take-over if Fuentes struggles. One way to deal with a situation like that is to draft both Fuentes and Rodney.

Injuries are always a headache too. Joe Nathan has been the most reliable closer over the last 6 seasons and is ranked #1 at the position by many fantasy mags and websites, except now he's come up with a torn UCL and suddenly the Twins closer situation is a free-for-all with Jon Rauch seeming the most likely candidate, but there is also talk of a trade with Toronto for Jason Frasor, which would also throw Toronto's closer situation up in the air! Now comes word that Huston Street will likely start the season on the DL. Do you draft Street anyway hoping he will come back soon, or do you grab the substitute for a few early season Saves and hope that Street's shoulder doesn't come around?

While you don't want to draft closers too high, you also don't want to follow the advice of waiting until the end of the draft to take them. They'll all be gone by then. Now, you can pick up closers during the season. There is always significant turnover, but every other team is trying to anticipate changes in the position too. You will end up using all your moves just chasing closers if you wait too long in the draft.

If you are at the end of a snake draft, you might want to be take the first closer in round 5 or 6, and go back-to-back to get a jump on competition. You can add a less secure closer and/or closer-in-waiting late in the draft. If you are in the middle of the draft, you can probably safely wait until the first closer goes and then jump in the next time you pick. Just remember, the difference between the top closer and the bottom one is miniscule. They are all going to get their Saves. Last year, Brad Lidge was the worst closer in baseball, by far. Yet, he got 31 Saves and I would not have won my fantasy league without him. You don't have to have the top rated closer, but you do want to have as many closers as you can get and use.

2 comments:

  1. I know this doesn't have anything to do with this particular blog, but I was wondering if you knew anything about Angel Villalona? I knew he posted bail and was looking like he would be exonerated. If so, what do the Giants do? If he returns, he is obviously a Top 10 on the Prospect List.

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  2. I am not aware of any new news on the Angel V front. The latest I've read is that the family of the victim as dropped charges, amid reports that they received a large sum of money from Angel V. and is not cooperating with the prosecutor. The prosecutor has reserved the right to pursue the case anyway. I don't know what the rules are in the DR, but in the USA, there are generally no statute of limitations on murder, so theoretically, the prosecutor could leave the case open indefinitely which would make it impossible for Angel to leave the country or obtain a U.S. visa. I vaguely remember reading that the prosecutor has some sort of deadline this spring to fish or cut bait, but it was just a passing comment I read on another blog somewhere. Even if he is exonerated, there's no guarantee the U.S would let him have a visa and there's no guarantee the Giants would want him back if he got one. For the time being, I am not counting on Angel V ever being a part of the future of the SF Giants.

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