Hey team! I was going to post a draft preview this morning but ran out of time. There was plenty of intrigue to speculate about going into the draft but it turned out to be very little drama and unfolded almost entirely according to best player available for most teams. I was going to headline the preview with something along the lines of Will Roch Fall? or Will Roch Float? While Buster Posey may have had designs on using his Bonus Pool war chest to make Roch Cholowsky and offer he couldn't refuse and the first three teams would not meet, that effort seemed to lose steam as the draft approach and Roch emerged as the consensus #1 among draft experts and that is exactly what happened. Grady Emerson SS, the consensus #1 HS prospect went #2 as widely expected and Vahn Lackey C, the ultra-athletic catcher from. Georgia Tech went to the Twins at #3.
That brings us to the Giants pick at #4. After months of Jacob Lombard HS SS assigned to the Giants in mock drafts the more obvious pick, Jackson Flora College RHP emerged as the likely pick late in the cycle and that is who they took. The rest of the first round stuck pretty close to script and as anticipated, the Giants nabbed a high-ceiling HS arm at #29 overall with the Competitive Balance pick they got from the Guardians in the Patrick Bailey trade. So with that introduction, here is a breakdown of the Giants first four rounds:
Round 1 #4: Jackson Flora RHP, College(UCSB). DOB: 05/25/2005. 6' 5", 205 lbs.
2024(USCB): 3-2, 3.83, 47 IP, 25 BB, 40 K.
2024(West Coast League): 1-0, 0.69, 13 IP, 4 BB, 9 K.
2025(UCSB): 6-3, 3.60, 75 IP, 17 BB, 86 K.
2026(UCSB): 12-0, 1.06, 102 IP, 32 BB, 133 K.
Jackson Flora is a prototypical college ace pitcher who still has physical upside. He sports a high-90's fastball that regularly hits triple digits as well as a nearly complete arsenal of secondary pitches including a sweeper and more traditional down-breaking slider and added a "kick" change this year that gives him a weapon against lefty batters. Once Cameron Flukey RHP from Coastal Carolina went down with a rib injury, Flora quickly separated himself from the pitching field and formed a tier of his own. With the standard caveat of barring injury, he should move quickly through the minors and establish himself as an elite MLB starting pitcher, something the Giants desperately need. The only other player who made sense for this pick was Jacob Lombard SS HS. I agree with Mark DeRosa that Lombard has the highest ceiling in the entire draft but he also has some strikeout concerns that give him some bust potential. He ultimately went to the Marlins at #14 and they may end up with the steal in the draft but given the Giants needs and the plethora of high-ceiling shortstop prospects they already have in their system, Flora was the right pick.
Round 1 #29(Competitive Balance from Guardians): Carson Bolemon LHP, HS. DOB: 4/5/2007. 6' 4", 215 lbs.
As if we need more pitchers named Carson in the Giants organization.......Although we do not have HS pitching stats and they don't mean much anyway, Bolemon put up elite numbers in high school and continued to shine in showcase and international competition. He struck out 101 batters in 42.1 IP his junior year of HS and struck out 17 in 11 IP in World Cup competition.
He has excellent command of a mid-90's fastball, a sweeper and a downward curve as well as the kick changeup shiny new toy. As with any high school pitcher, injury is the big concern and Bolemon does have a history of a partial UCL tear in 8'th grade(8'th grade? Yikes!). He has shown no signs of arm trouble since. He also turned 19 yo 3 months before the draft but should be a fast mover in the minors to make up for that. The Giants have a strong track record of success with drafting high school pitchers. Carson Bolemon has all the makings of another success.
Round 2 #55: Kaden Waechter RHP, HS. DOB: 8/3/2007. 6' 3", 190 lbs.
Son of former MLB pitcher Doug Waechter RHP. Projectable athletic frame. Fastball mid-90's with room for more. Secondary pitch is a slider. Changeup sounds like it needs some work. Hey! Maybe he can use a kick change?! Nice combination of pedigree, size, projectability and current pitchability.
Round 3 #90: Peyton Bonds OF, College. DOB: 7/19/2005. B-R, T-R. 6' 5", 230 lbs.
2024(Campbell U): .267/.341/.427, 5 HR, 14 SB, 15 BB, 30 K, 170 PA.
2024(Perfect Game Collegiate League): .364/.556/.455, 4 BB, 2 K's, 18 PA.
2025(Rutgers): .300/.384/.430, 5 HR, 16 SB, 21 BB, 45 K, 258 PA.
2025(Cape Cod League): .333/.333/.667, 0 BB, 3 K, 6 PA.
2026(Rutgers): .352/.436/.535, 6 HR, 13 SB, 16 BB, 21 K, 166 PA.
Talk about pedigree! Young Peyton is the grandson of Bobby Bonds and the nephew of Barry. Elite size with above average athleticism and tools across the board. Although he does not have elite speed, per scouting reports he is a plus defensive CF. Has a feel for hitting currently with contact over power but high exit velocities suggest there is power to unlock. MLB scouting report says outstanding baseball instincts with a passion for the game with a willingness to grind it out like his father, Bobby Bonds Jr. I am sure Young Peyton's Unc is more than willing to make him a personal development project.
Round 4 #118: Carlos Martinez RHP, College. DOB: 9/21/2004. 6' 2", 210 lbs.
2023(Hofstra): 1-1, 12.83, 13.1 IP, 5 BB, 9 K.
2024(Hofstra): 6-4, 4.02, 78.1 IP, 32 BB, 95 K.
2026(Hofstra): 6-3, 3.30, 76.1 IP, 27 BB, 96 K's.
No MLB scouting report. Video available online shows a solid frame with long arms and legs. Loose arm action. Available scouting reports show a 92-93 MPH fastball. Slider is his best pitch. Missed the 2025 season with Tommy John surgery. Probably projects as a reliever. Giants may be looking to go way under slot but probably could go back to school as a redshirt senior so likely still has some negotiating leverage.
16 more players to be drafted tomorrow so we are just getting started. Christmas in July!
WooHoo! Christmas in July! I was on the Lombard train (with Booth Jr as the back up) for a while, but I think you are right and that Flora was the best pick. Nine other teams had some misgivings about Lombard as well. I just hope passing on Booth Jr doesn't come back to haunt the Giants and that they will find their future center fielder in someone else. And wouldn't it be something if that someone else goes by the name of Bonds... Peyton Bonds!
ReplyDeleteLiked that the Giants sprung for a couple of high upside high school arms. And I don't even mind they went off the board for the 4th round college pitcher... seems like he could be a diamond in the rough and given his repertoire I would just put him on the closer track right away. I feel better about this Giants draft than I have the last few years and I'm hopeful that the Giants will take some gambles and use the war chest they have built specifically for this draft.
Doc thanks for providing a grear breakdown of the Giants draft picks.. I'm excited about a Flora pick and apparently so is Logan Webb. I had a good laugh watching an interview between Dallas Braden and Flora that had a lot of playful banter..between the 2 about him being a Giants fan during their 3 world series run and how he teased his friends who were A's fans. Braden didn't expect that Flora would answer his quesrions the way he did, lol.
ReplyDeleteAlmost forgot it was cool that the Giants drafted Peyton Bonds, Barry's nephew. He was teammates at Rutgers with Trevor Cohen, Giants 3rd round pick last year.
ReplyDeleteThought you all might enjoy this video of Peyton Bonds, produced by Big Ten Network. Very insightful. I couldn't be more thrilled with yesterday's picks for this organization! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hot_NNIZLVg
ReplyDeleteThanks for providing the video Covechatter. Wow, 6'5" 230 pound outfielder would stand out on a college team! I bet uncle Barry will make trips to watch him play and give pointers.
DeleteHad the Giants not gotten "lucky" getting the 4th pick as their 1st round draft position, their ranked slot would have been #15.
ReplyDeleteMost likely Jackson Flora RHP would have been gone.
So who was left?
Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla. (ranked @ No. 8) would have been there as he was picked #16.
MLB.com says of Rojas:
"We had heard Rojas, the top high school arm – and best lefty – could go in the top 10. But when the Royals and Braves, the two spots that made the most sense, passed, it was unclear who would swoop in to take him. As storied a high school program as Stoneman Douglas is – Jesús Luzardo and Roman Anthony are among its alums – this is the school’s first first-rounder. Rojas has two plus pitches in his fastball and slider to go along with a solid changeup and good command."
Well, that wouldn't have been awful.
And they still might have gotten their Competitive Balance Round A pick Bolemon (No. 24) at #29.
Maybe.
A part of me wanted the Giants to draft Lombard because he was considered to have the highest ceiling and his brother is legit, so he seemed like a potential sexy pick. But boy am I glad they went Flora. Flora would’ve been drafted with the #5 pick if the Giants past on him while Lombard lasted all the way to 14. If we had Lombard, you know it’s a guarantee we would be lampooned because our top 5 prospects are all shortstops. I didn’t want Posey to draft for need, but Flora was what we needed AND we just happened to have the perfect pick to get him without even having to consider a reach. He easily will be a top 100 prospect and we will be back to having 4 top 100 prospects on MLB’s list. Bolemon also looks like a steal and someone who should’ve been drafted higher. Waechter with his combination of stuff and physical projection and MLB bloodlines is also an exciting guy to add with the other two guys. Even though we did draft for need, we didn’t reach for any of the guys we drafted. Bolemon in particular should’ve been drafted much higher as a lot of teams drafted pitchers ahead of him that were ranked below him. The bottom line is all these pitchers not only greatly improve our already great farm system but they add much needed positional diversity. We will have to wait to see how these guys perform next year but them in addition to Whisenhunt, Tugboat, Bresnahan, Birdsong and the international pitchers, we suddenly have a great amount of young pitchers in the system.
ReplyDeleteGetting Peyton Bonds is like the cherry on top. Honestly was in shock that they drafted him. I always root for them to draft bloodline players (wanted Landon Thome because I was a big Thome fan back in the day, even though Landon is a SS). Bonds was the one I wanted more than anything and I can’t believe we actually drafted him
ReplyDeleteBonds looks like an absolute beast. 2nd gen players don’t often work out, but this kid LOOKS the part!
DeleteAfter this strong draft, how would you rank our top 10? I got Gonzo, Hernandez, Level, Flora, Kilen, Jordan, Davidson, McDonald, Bolemon, and Bresnahan. Is that too far off where you would rate the system today?
ReplyDeleteThat's a fair ranking considering Flora has yet to play a professional game. I a bold one and am plugging Flora in at #1 due to a combination of high ceiling and potential to be in the majors within a year. Yes, I said the same thing about Will Bednar a few years ago.
DeleteThat is aggressive for Flora, but your reasoning is pretty sound. The Dominican twins have a lot of buzz, but they are also really young, and as we have all seen over the last 15+ years, a LOT can happen to young prospects on their way up (Villalona, Cabrera, Luciano just to name some of the more high profile ones).
ReplyDeleteAnd you get a pass on Bednar. I think we were all excited about him, and his clear fast-moving projection and high floor. However, you got me very excited about Bishop at the time. I still haven’t fully forgiven you for that one…
ReplyDelete