The Giants faced a trifecta of negative energy today: Facing a rookie pitcher making his first MLB start and a getaway game on the east coast. It went about as expected. Not good! Key lines:
There is honestly not much to say about this game. The Giants lineup mustered just 3 hits and 2 walks against Jhony Brito RHP while Ross Stripling RHP and Sean Hjelle RHP had tough outings. Brito was sitting at 97 MPH with a very live heater backed by what looked like at least a plus changeup, which is a tough combination to hit off of. On the other hand, it looked to me like Brito was getting most of his close pitches called in his favor while Stripling was consistently getting squeezed.
What's hard to know is how much of that was related to catcher "framing", a concept I still don't understand and makes me wish for automated strike zones every time I read or hear about it.
Blake Sabol C got mostly positive reviews from Stripling and Kap but did not look like a MLB caliber catcher to my very amateur eye. Sean Hjelle was visibly frustrated over a no-throw on a double steal although it looked like the problem on that play was no defender at 3B to throw to. Hjelle also threw 3 WP's and really has nobody to blame but himself for those. They were scuds who any catcher would have struggled to block. Bottom line: I think Sabol is going to need a few more games to get the full picture of whether he can play the position or not.
Churn Watch: Joey Bart C was placed on the 10-day IL with a mild back strain which made room on the active roster for Hjelle. Currently Roberto Perez C and Blake Sabol C/OF are the only catchers on the active roster.
The Giants move on to Chicago to face the White Sox tomorrow at noon PT with Anthony DeSclafani RHP facing hard throwing Michael Kopech RHP.
I was reading a baseball chat page and another person wrote the following about platooning ball players. " The platoon system realy strips the heart out of the game! When players are pulled simply because analytics determine active play by match, it doesn't matter how much fight anyone has to win. There is no room to draft off one another's success or all in attitude. The role in team chemistry is not shown in the algorithms ! There can be the time and the place occasionally for stats, particularly with pitchers, but spirit is killed by platooning determining major moves. It is drastically w/o heart. I don't know if this is Kap, or he is merely a puppet in this approach, but it is ruining the game. " I kind of feel the same way as the above author. Yesterday's game was exciting baseball to me and today's games and the first game of this season was so boring I question my loyalty to the Giant's as a fan.
ReplyDeleteOh come on! Platooning is as old as baseball itself. Earl Weaver did it all the time especially later in his career. Bruce Bochy was not a strict platooner but he sure liked to play matchup baseball and nobody was better at getting the right matchups, especially on the postseason. So FZ and Kap did not invent platooning or matchup baseball. Whether their strict analytic modeling produces better results that Boch's more organic approach is debatable. It sure worked to perfection in 2021. Not so much in other years. Maybe in in the end it depends on players executing which every system depends on.
DeleteWhere I think FZ and Kap deserve some criticism is they seem to be almost oblivious to the fact the roster size limitations make it impossible to platoon every position.
DeleteThere is nothing per se wrong with platooning. It only becomes a problem when you are forced to platoon too many positions because your roster is full of incomplete players. Then you're starting to create roster issues that, in turn, create structural vulnerabilities to pitching changes. Here's an example. You're in a tight game. If you have four platoons (RF, CF, 1B & 3B) how many do you swap out when the RHP starter is relieved by the LHP? Well, it'll depend on the batting order.
DeleteProbably at least one or two because, let's face it, the opposing manager put up that LHP because at least a couple of guys in this inning's batting order can't hit LHP very well. Maybe later in that inning, or just a couple of more, you'll be forced to swap all four based on the game's circumstances. But can you do it? Top of the 9th, I'd say so. But what about the Top of the 6th? There are four innings to be played and relievers can be swapped out again after the minimum three, potentially leaving you in a world of hurt because your bench is pretty much empty.
Take our team. Wade Jr - .799 OPS against RHP. Very solid number for a first baseman (would have been 10th for 1B last year). Not elite, but very solid. Incapable against LHP - .308 OPS. Must platoon. If he was the only one, I'd be pretty happy about it. But Slater, Villar, Pederson, Conforto and to some extent, Yaz, need at least some platooning.
That becomes a managerial opportunity, playing the platoons, but also a burden as you know the other manager will take advantage of your lopsided roster at key moments if he can.
I take it, when I read people commenting about the team's platooning, to mean excessive platooning, with the assumption that we all understand that platooning has been around for a long time.
DeleteThe same with defensive shift, which has been around a long time, but had been more pronounced, extensive and frequent. The new rule, a reminder that in Nature excesses are checked, aims to reduce it (without completely eliminating it - a 2B can still move some distance towards the SS side of the diamond, for example).
Didn't like their chances today hearing an inexperienced catcher Sabol started the game. At least they won game 2, they need to get healthier with Haniger and Slater coming off the IL soon. Bryce Johnson roster fiasco seems more bizarre after reading Pav's report. I'm glad Bryce Johnson is on the roster because he deserved it. The way I understand it is the FO was trying to make a 2nd trade for a player they were going to put on the 40 man roster which would have opened up once they put Luke Jackson on the 60 day IL. Once it fell through that opened up a spot for Bryce. Crazy ride. Fans would have been outraged if 2nd trade went through and it prevents Bryce from making team. But what if the player in the trade was considered a better player then Bryce. We'll never know. This is an example of the business side of baseball being crazy sometimes. The people I felt sorry for is Brett Wisely 's parents who were denied the chance of being at Yankee stadium for their son's MLB debut because of all this.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I am reading too much into it but it sure seems like Ross Stripling has taken Sabol under his wing and is trying to help him succeed even to his own (hopefully temporary) detriment.
DeleteI didn't see the game since it's blacked out, but read that Stripling and Kap gave encouraging comments on Sabol's catching which is good. Didn't FZ say they need Sabol to be able catch to keep him on the roster all year. The next month is going to be huge for Sabol and the other catchers competing for roster spots.
DeleteIt does seem like a management failure that they are going to spend the first month of the season auditioning catchers.
Deleteif they were/are as down on Joey Bart as they seem, based on their own comments, it sure seems like it might have made sense to sell the farm for Sean Murphy or sign Willson Contreras in the offseason.
DeleteI remember Susan Slusser reporting that they were in the trade market last season looking for catching help and brought up Sean Murphy's name, which was shocking then Yes, would like to see FZ make a trade or two to plug their roster holes since they are in the win now mode but it seems like he doesn't want to sell the farm. Even the trades he makes are usually considered "minor deals".
DeleteI wonder if platooning is cheaper, money wise.
DeleteFor example, a CF (centerfielder) who can only hit LP (left-handed pitching) plus a CF who can only hit RP - together, are they cheaper than a CF who can hit both LF & RF (while playing 95% of the games) at an offensive output level similar to the combined total of the two plus a reserve CF who may play only 5% of the time?
Morning All... I attended yesterday's game (LF Bleachers, 1st row - great seats). DrBGiantsfan captured some of what I believe. Here are some additional thoughts and real-time opinions I formed whist watching...
ReplyDelete(Part 1/2)
1) The Giants have no one in the lineup that a pitcher must fear. Yes, Aaron Judge can launch one out of any part of a ball park (his HR yesterday was caught by a fellow 5 rows behind and 8 seats to the left of me and my daughter, one of many, many fans with an expensive 'Judge' 99 jersey). But Mike Stanton! Next up - he hit one some 40 feet over the CF wall (408, I believe), that landed in the pavilion. A monster shot. The Giants have no one like that. The closest thing they have is Joc. And they pitched around him all day (he still hit one to the track in RF). At least when the Giants had B. Bonds, he meant that others (Kent, Burks, Snow) would get pitches to hit when they pitched around him.
2) Blake Sabol is not an MLB catcher. He blocks nothing. In between-innings warmups, his throws down to 2B are far away from 2B. On the aforementioned double steal, he did not look to 3rd and Villar did not cover. I wonder if he was focusing on Hjellie - 3 WP in the same AB (I thought at least 1 was a PB) will do that to an inexperienced catcher, I suppose. But all the excuses from Kapler or Stripling will not change what the rest of us can plainly see. They don't want Bart. No other C can hit. I put the over/under date to see Gary Sanchez at Apr 15.
3) I thought Ross Stripling pitched OK. He gave up 2 mammoth shots (Judge, Stanton), but was not terrible otherwise. He will do OK, against a more ordinary lineup. But in a big game (against a big-time lineup)? No.
4) Sean Hjellie: I was impressed with his FB (94, 95). Sinking motion. Also, he has guts - he struck out Judge, swinging, on a 3-2 FB in the high end of the strike zone. Sabol was not helping him at all. Framing is the art of a Catcher catching a ball whilst his mitt is moving towards - and ends up in - the strike zone, no matter where it is thrown. Buster Posey was a master at it (so was Benjie Molina, for that matter). It takes hand-eye coordination, balance, and smooth movement to do that well (you must be subtle to influence an umpire). Blake Sabol? Well, all I can say is learning how to be a catcher whilst you are in the majors is tough to do.
(Part 2/2)
ReplyDelete5) Management: I can see why the Dodgers let Zaidi go. I can also see why the Dodgers (and the Phillies) let Kapler go. I suppose you can be somewhat competitive when you focus on finding guys that other teams gave up on and proving the other team wrong. Yes, the Dodgers found Justin Turner (given up by the Mets, originally), but they drafted a slew of guys (Urias, Muncy, Lux), and signed others (Freeman, Betts) who play at a the star level. But the Dodgers and the Phillies went in a different direction - they went after, and acquired, stars. Freeman and Betts. Harper and Trea Turner. Who like that, have the Giants signed lately? Who like that, have the Giants drafted lately? They can't or won't do what is necessary to land a Judge or Trea Turner. So they hunt for cast offs, who range from Mike Tauchman to Mike Yaztremski. With Zaidi and Kapler, I get the feeling that it is vanity. Perhaps they are more interested in keeping the attention on themselves - look at me, I found Mike Yaztremski and Thairo Estrada, and now, Blake Sabol when everyone else gave up on them! Perhaps. But the fact is the Giants have not drafted or signed a single foundational player - a guy who can carry an entire team for extended periods - since Zaidi arrived. And when it comes time to roll the dice on a guy, find out one way or another if they can play (Bryan Reynolds, Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos, Bryce Johnson), both Zaidi and Kapler are remarkably timid. I am from New York, and with guys like that, we say: They like to bet at the $2 window.
I have been a Giants fan since the first game I ever saw in person (Shea Stadium, against the Mets. I was 7 years old - Mays was in CF that day. I am a Giants fan ever since). I have hope that a slew of guys they currently have in the minors can become big time guys. But the team I saw yesterday is not much better than a AAA team. I hope I am wrong, but at this point - they will do well to finish at .500.
To follow up on point5: When I say Zaidi likes to 'hunt for cast offs', this includes Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Mitch Haniger, and Mike Conforto. Guys who had a potentially high ceiling, but at a very risk averse contract. Good money? Yes. Long term commitment? No (opt outs preferred). A previous commenter said a 'platoon system really (sic) strips the heart out of the game'. I would say it does the same with a team. Where is the excitement I felt 2 weeks ago, looking at Bryce Johnson, wondering if he would be stealing 2 bases in the same inning? Soring 2 or 3 runs a game? Thinking now, THERE is a leadoff hitter. THERE is a center fielder. Well, the Giants see it differently - the look at Lamont Wade and see a leadoff hitter. They look at Brett Wisely and see a center fielder. I wonder if star players (Judge, Harper) visit SF and pick up on that? Maybe what the Giants truly want is a team of role (read: platoon) players. Reclamation projects. You know, a Lunch Pail Crew. Like I said, the Dodgers and Phillies went the other way. And they have had some success with that approach. The Giants? Who know how successful they will be this year? But if you see 2021 as an outlier, they have not had much success in the Zaidi/Kapler era. And, after yesterday, it is reasonable to assume it will be more of the same in 2023.
DeleteAs I replied to the first comment above, platooning is as old as the game itself so I have no problem with it. But FZ and Kap seem to forget that roster limitations prevent platooning every position.
DeleteKapler is +10 Pythagorean which is about the only you can tell if he's making a difference For comparison's sake, it took Bochy who is +36 Pythagorean (one of MLBs all-time great +Pythagorean results) the better part of a decade to get there. Plus, there are plenty of managers in the HOF that have a lower Pythagorean score than Kapler, one of the worst is Tommy LaSorda who (off the top of my head) something like -36. He's also doing better than other HOF managers like Tony LaRussa, Whitey Herzog, Sparky Anderson...
DeleteSo maybe you're pointing your finger at the wrong target. In baseball, winning is about talent acquisition. That's why some teams, like the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers keep winning. They keep signing good/great players in FA along with drafting well. Two things the Giants haven't done in a long time.
So, whose fault is that the roster is filled with poor fielders (https://tinyurl.com/45w35ynr), batters who have major holes in their performance profile and a roster full of players that routinely break? It's Zaidi and nobody else.
In the end, this team will win or lose based on the roster Kapler is given. Kapler, if plays his best managerial cards right, he might squeeze out a couple of more wins out of these guys. Which is all you can really expect out of a manager. But should the Giants fail, Kapler will pay the price even though he got a bad hand by the dealer.
If Kepler is assisted by the staff from the analytics, and if the VP or GM also has some say in formulating the daily lineup and/or some or many of the in-game moves, then isn't a direct comparison with earlier coaches harder?
DeleteAh the old pitcher we haven’t seen excuse! Seems like if this were true, other teams would just have a revolving door of young arms that nobody has a book on yet throwing every night. Also seems like other teams would struggle more as well against a guy like Hjelle who I assume not many Yankees had seen. Or it could just be that our players aren’t very good and can find excuses for struggling almost anywhere. Cole shut them down in game one but that was only because he is an Ace. Day game after a night game seems like another good excuse so looking forward to that one. Blame it on the short porch in RF or the cold weather or maybe someone has the sniffles or a tummy ache which excuses any efforts that weren’t made! At some point there has to be accountability and I’m not seeing much yet!
ReplyDeleteNobody is making excuses here. Just observations about situations the Giants have not handled well in recent years.
Deletei don't want to get into overreaction mode this early in the season but, if the giants miss the postseason this year, it may be time to hire someone parallel to FZ to give him extra eyes. i also think FZ and kapler will be on the hot seat in 2024.
ReplyDeleteAgree about overreacting too early positively or negatively. While I'm happy with the 1st game win in Chicago, I can't believe I streamed Micheal Kopech today to start on my fantasy team, lol. Overreacted to the Giants being shutout twice. I thought Kopech was good, I'll drop him so fast.
DeleteNot meaning to further rain on Kaplers parade, but Boch's Rangers are currently 3-0, fresh of sweeping the defending NL champion Phillies.
ReplyDeleteDoc,
ReplyDeleteThis has to be one of the most active periods of comments I have seen in the last decade. Shows your success -- and peoples frustration. Glad you have built such a strong community.
- Fan
Thank you for the kind words. I think readership has slowly picked up over the last 2+ seasons and comments are definitely up. We understandably peaked around 2014/2015 and and probably hit a nadir along with everyone and everything else in 2020. Very gratifying to see interest picking up again.
Deletehehe...Enough with the 'doomed' talk. The season has barely begun, and a lot can change in the coming months. When you've been a Giants fan as long as I have (sixtieth year), you've seen a lot of early seasons change by June, both for better and worse. Give it a few weeks folks!
ReplyDeleteA partial clip from The Athletic a couple of days ago:
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK — Rob Manfred got a phone call. It was “one of our more senior owners,” as the commissioner put it, and they began talking about the number of employees who work on, well, numbers.
“You know, I don’t know what this analytics thing is, but I have, like, 75 guys,” the owner told him. “What I want to do is, I would spend a week in the analytics department. I was going to figure out what the hell these guys do.”
“So, how’d it go?” the commissioner asked.
“Well, you know, I got a lot of smart guys down there,” the owner said, “but I am absolutely convinced that analytics is an arms race to nowhere.”
Manfred told that story to laughter Wednesday during an executive luncheon hosted by the Paley Media Council in New York. And he chose to tell it because he agrees with the sentiment.
“It’s become one of my favorite lines because I think it’s actually true,” Manfred said.
It goes on...
By Evan Drellich
Apr 1, 2023
So if this owner really believes that, why doesn't he put his money where his mouth is and lay off at least half of the people working in his analytics department?
DeleteHa ha! I wonder if it was one of the Johnsons or Larry Baer?
DeleteYou probably read it - he doesn't give a hint...
Delete