Among multiple departures of last year's forgettable and regrettable Giants roster was one that probably should have received more attention, Jakob Junis RHP signing a 1 year/$7 M free agent contract with the Brewers. Junis signed with the Giants for the 2022 season for $1.75 M and then avoided arbitration for the 2023 season with a 1 year/$2.8 M contract. Both those seasons were bargains for the Giants. Junis is tailor made for ex-manager Gabe Kapler's mix and match, role-less concept of managing a pitching staff and as far as I know, did it without complaining. Let's look at the stat lines:
Jakob Junis RHP. DOB: 9/16/1992. 6'3", 2020 lbs.
2022: 5-7, 4.42, 112 IP, 7.88 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 23 G, 17 Starts, FIP 3.65, xFIP 3.67. fWAR= 1.3.
2023: 4-3, 3.87, 86 IP, 10.05 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 40 G, 4 Starts, 1 Save, FIP 3.79, xFIP 3.66, fWAR= 0.7.
The higher ERA in 2022 was likely due to fatigue from overuse in a starting role after just 64.2 IP combined in 2020 and 2021. His improved K/9 in 2023 likely due shifting more pitches to the slider(52.4% to 62.5%).
The Brewers reportedly signed him to be a SP and it is defensible for the Giants to let him go for close to market value(although this Hot Stove League season almost certainly inflated the pitching market). I am not sure he really has a SP repertoire of pitches. I think he is most valuable in swing-man/long relief role exactly how Kap used him the last two seasons. No matter who is manager or what his role is, though, those innings are going to be a challenge to replace.
Best wishes to Jakob Junis. He was a good Giant.
Hey Doc what do you think about what FZ said about the Giants future free agent plans? It almost sounded like they would be open to considering Boros's free agents if the prices comes down.
ReplyDeleteI would take FZ at his word. Anything is possible but it's unlikely the Giants will make a significant addition to the roster before Opening Day. 1. I am sure they would be open to signing one of the "Boras Four" if the price came down substantially, but Boras is historically stubborn about coming down on his asking prices. 2. It's more than just the asking price. It's much harder to make complementary moves if you make a major signing at this point.
DeleteAgree that a significant addition is unlikely at this point since it would disrupt their camp . It would have to make a lot of sense. I like their additions Soler and Lee on the offensive side, Ray and Hicks on pitching side.. can't wait to see how the young pitching like Harrison, Winn, and Beck start the season. That was their plan all along when they traded Descafani, Stripling and didn't re sign Wood, Junis.. We will see what happens.
DeleteSo does Joey Bart end up getting traded or sent down and lost on waivers. Can't see him not getting claimed.
DeleteI would think the Giants will try to work out a trade for Bart but he does not have much trade value. Maybe he will have some good AB's in the spring which might move the needle on his value just a bit? They probably feel like they don't have much to lose to keep him around until near the end in case of an injury or maybe Patrick Bailey, who has options, continues to struggle with throwing and at the plate and they decide he needs more seasoning.
DeleteEveryone agrees that Bailey is better than Bart: how much better?
DeleteFangraphs suggests 2-3 WAR points which assumes that Bailey will get better and Bart won't.
If that is correct, then Bart really isn't worth much on the market @ 0 WAR (zero times anything is zero), and trading him for a young minor league player without a lot of promise isn't much better than saying thank you and goodbye.
It's much like FZ's very first pick in the draft, Hunter Bishop, except there is still a tiny bit of hope for him if he can stay healthy. Also, there is much less invested in Bishop than Bart, but neither is worth much of anything on the market.
Looking back at the 2018 and 2019 first round picks, the Giants could have done better at their draft locations but better wasn't obvious.
I understand his stance on position players, but I think FZ is out of his cotton picking mind if he doesn't try to land SNELL or MONTGOMERY...The rotation is set up for a disaster with youngsters being counted on way too much and a reliever trying to become a starter who will likely have an injury, and probably sooner rather then later..and who knows about RAY and COBB...My bet is FZ is looking into them for the right price. Now, I am very excited about all these Young pitchers (Harrison, Winn, Teng, Black, Whisenhunt, Mcdonald and a few others) but, for this year, FZ doesn't get one of Snell/Montgomery, the season will likely go off the rails soon and that is not good for the kids...And the money is there to get one of them...Even if a big 1 year high cost contract. It would be worth it for the organization..Do it FZ.
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Not sure if true but Snell is rumored to have turned down a 7 yr/$200 M offer from the Yankees. The question becomes do you really want FZ commit that kind of money and more to a seriously flawed player jus to fix an immediate problem?
DeleteWell, I did say TRY...:). I understand the concerns with Snell and if he's rejecting offers like that, it does seem like another risk you don't want to add to Ray, Hicks, Cobb and the kids at such a high price/term...Looking more and more at MONTGOMEY..The guy has been really consistent the last three years and would be a real good lefty compliment to WEBB..at 31 doesn't have alot of innings under his belt..and just seems like a Giant...Does he want to play and live in Cali? I don't know but at least see if You can afford him either long term or short term..worth a shot..and if not let the fans know this is going to be a long growing season with a lot of ups and downs from kids and with no chance at success. or competion with the Dodgers (duh!) or Dbacks..which is fine, if that's the strategy for the Young pitchers and position players to develop on the fly
DeleteSteveVa
SteveVA
Wouldn't be surprised if in a week or two FZ signed Snell to a two-year deal for about $70 million.
DeleteCorrection: Per MLBTR, the Yankees offer to Snell was 6 yr/$150 M.
DeleteI agree that ideally the Giants need another proven frontline SP to start the season but is it really that dire if they don't? We think of the championship years as having these great rotations but it didn't always look that way in spring training. 2010 they had Cain and Timmy at the top of the rotation but Barry Zito was widely derided as a bust, Jonathan Sanchez was no sure thing and Bummy started the season in AAA. I can think of other Giants postseason or near-postseason teams with several young breakout SP's. Bob Melvin is reminiscing about winning a division title with the A's with 5 rookie SP's. Maybe I should write a post about that?
DeleteI gotta say it would be interesting and hopefully entertaining to roll with all the young arms after Webb. When you stand back, the stable champing at the gate includes (in my rough order of MLB proximity):
DeleteKyle Harrison
Mason Black
Kai-Wei Teng
Carson Whisenhunt
Landon Roupp
Hayden Birdsong
Carson Seymour
Just peeking over the fence are also
Trevor McDonald
Joe Whitman
Still, about half of these guys would have to establish themselves PDQ to have a credible rotation. Could happen, but seems awfully optimistic. I'd still like them to sign Snell on a short-term deal.
My problem is that the only SP without a question mark and more likely not to struggle is Webb. That's it. It's likely that most of the other guys falter or get injured. Doesn't mean I am not excited about the young SPs becaus I m pumped about them..and want them in the best environment possible... just that I think it's way to much uncertainty in the rotation which can effect all the pitchers, the entire team..and the Giants don't need that after last year's clustefudge and discord...An option like LORENZEN would also be acceptable.You want the young guys pitching without heavy load on their mind
DeleteSteveVA
Snell still seems like the perfect fit but if his asking price is completely unreasonable or if FZ is not comfortable with the walk rate and durability, I really think they should take a hard look to at least one of Ryu, Lorenzen or Clevinger who should be available on shorter term deals. Of course there is probably a reason why those 3 are still on the market too.
DeleteDitto to Jim. If Snell won’t budge on his AAV and doesn’t get the longterm deal he’s looking for in the coming weeks, it almost seems inevitable that FZ will be throwing a 2/70 with that classic FZ 2nd year player option at him.
ReplyDeleteHow about Ryu or Lorenzen on shorter-term deals? Isn’t it less about the money than the length Boras is demanding …
ReplyDeleteI like both Ryu and Lorenzen on shorter term deals than Snell or Montgomery are going to cost.
DeleteI disagree that it's too late to make a significant move, especially if it is to add an Ace , or fill an empty hole.
ReplyDeleteEven early season trades happen. Late signings happen because the Players Union won't consider a hard cap like all the major sports: it isn't in the super-stars interest although it could arguably hurt more players than it helps.
The NFL has passed MLB for a variety or reasons but the biggest is: any team can win. (Possibly the biggest reason is people like violence and the NFL gives them that. I hope it isn't true: it doesn't say much for our society if we ape the ancient Roman circuses.)
The Giants are looking to add significant pitching by mid season as Ray and Cobb become available. And they are not adverse to fill a hole before the trade deadline as they did in 2021 which almost beat the Dodgers. 2016 trading deadline also pumped up SF gaining Matt Moore, Will Smith, and Eduardo Nunez: had they stopped the Cubs in the 9th they might have won it all.
IMHO, it's never too late to add a stud and more players on a team are helped then the one who gets displaced, who would probably fill a subsequent hole created by an injury
Too late: Ryu is on his way to the Korea Baseball Organization
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