Were it not for the '22-'23 Hot Stove League season, I would rate the '23-'24 edition the oddest one of all time and it might be anyway. We didn't have any last minute shocks like the infamous "Arson Judge" tweet or failed physicals minutes before the big press conference but here we are with spring training camps in full swing and four of the biggest name and biggest predicted contracts remaining unsigned. It's a bit hard to give out Hot Stove League grades when it might not be actually over. On the other hand, this is starting to feel like it could drag on past the start of the regular season and we have to close it out some time. Well, maybe we don't have to, but then what else would we write about during the spring training "silly season" when most of the stories are about how some player has cleared their head and come to camp with a renewed enthusiasm or they found a new workout regimen and are in the "best shape of their life?"
Another factor making final grades hard to assign is the dominance of the Dodgers signings which pretty much obliterated any other Hot Stove news and made any other signings seem lilliputian in comparison. Also, the massive, even ridiculous, dollar numbers put up by the Dodgers caused many Giants fans to start thinking of the Hot Stove League solely in terms of money spent than players acquired or team needs addressed. Sorry to say, Giants fans, but if that is how you are going to look at it, you might as well switch sides and be Dodger fans because the Giants are never going to come close to those money numbers nor should they. Of course, Giants management deserves some blame for the money obsession as they created the expectation they were almost certain to sign one of those gargantuan contracts with, well, with somebody which was an unrealistic expectation from the very beginning.
Having said that, let's break it down into what players they actually acquired and find a letter grade to give it all:
Departing Free Agents: Scott Alexander LHP, Roberto Perez C, Alex Wood LHP, Jakob Junis RHP, Brandon Crawford SS, Joc Pederson DH/OF, John Brebbia RHP, Sean Manaea LHP.
Most of these are frankly addition by subtraction but the pitching half of the roster would look a bit better with Manaea and Junis and both signed contracts the Giants could easily afford on top of their other moves.
12/13/2023: Giants sign Jung Hoo Lee CF to a 6-yr/$113 M contract. Lee has a player option for the last 2yr/$41 M of the contract. Lee has been the top player in South Korea for several years and is the son of a Korean superstar player. He is a classic CF/speed/leadoff hitter who should provide much-needed upgrades in CF defense and more classic leadoff skills than last year's leadoff hitter, LaMonte Wade Jr who should also be valuable in a lower lineup position. Lee is just 25 years old so even if he opts out, the Giants should have his services for the peak 4 years of his career. The Giants overpayed market projections for Lee but this market produced some jaw-dropping contracts so everything is relative. I consider it a solid, even exciting signing. He potentially gives the Giants a dimension they have lacked for a long time.
12/23/2023: Giants sign Tom Murphy C to a 2 yr/8.25 M contract with a $4 M club option for 2026. What? A club option? What a concept! Murphy was already a Forever Giant after being claimed off waivers on March 25, 2019 then DFA'd 3 days later when he failed to make the Opening Day roster and was traded the next day to the Mariners for someone named Jesus Osoria. I've been in love with Murphy's bat for a long time and I hated to see him not stick with the Giants in 2019. He is a ferocious hitter with light-tower power whose defensive reputation has been overshadowed by the offense but he is at least an average defender behind the plate to boot. His achilles heel has been injuries which have severely curtailed his PA's but none of them seem to be the type that turns into chronic disabilities. One of my Bold Predictions for the 2024 season is Murphy getting the most innings behind the plate and hitting at least 20 HR's. Has a chance to be a tremendous under-the-radar move by FZ.
1/5/2024: Giants trade Mitch Haniger RF and Anthony DeSclafani RHP and cash to the Mariners for Robbie Ray LHP. This would be a great trade for FZ without anything in return just with the addition by subtraction. Maybe Mitch Haniger has a good season or two left in him but he just has not been able to stay healthy and did not look good last season when he did play. DeSclafani has also been beset by injuries and has not contributed since 2021. Getting Ray in return creates the potential for a second-half boost to the rotation after he rehabs from TJ surgery. Ray has an opt out after this season. If he exercises it, it means the Giants probably got a great 3 months out of him. If not, he will be another offseason removed from TJ surgery and signed for 2 more seasons. The only major downside is it still leaves a hole in the rotation to start the 2024 season.
1/18/2024: Giants sign Jordan Hicks RHP to a 4 yr/$44 M free agent contract. Hicks is best known for a FB that consistently sits above 100 MPH and has been a successful reliever/Closer. He wants to be a SP and that's what the Giants signed him to be. If he makes a successful transition to SP, this contract will be a bargain. The downside is he goes back to being an effective reliever with just a slightly rich reliever price tag. Love the out-of-box thinking here. Relatively low risk move with tremendous upside.
2/2/2024: Giants traded Ross Stripling to the A's for Jonah Cox OF. Another addition by subtraction move but it feels like they need to use the saved salary and roster space on another SP upgrade for this move to make sense as Stripling only has one year left on his contract.
2/13/2024: Giants acquired Otto Lopez SS from the Blue Jays for cash. Light-hitting utility IF/OF who can play SS. Giants needed a reserve MI who could be a backup plan for Marco Luciano at SS but is Lopez an upgrade over Brett Wisely, Tyler Fitzgerald or Casey Schmitt? Feels more like a Churn move.
218/2024: Giants sign Jorge Soler DH/OF to a 3 yr/42 M contract. Soler replaces and upgrades Joc Pederson from last year's DH. Joc was a platoon hitter whereas Soler is expected to be in the lineup against all pitchers. You could also say he replaces Mitch Haniger who was traded back to the Mariners. As we mentioned, Haniger might have a good season or two left in him but he sure didn't look like it last year and Soler represents a significant upgrade on Haniger's production at the plate while clearing out roster space on the defensive OF side. Like Haniger, Soler's biggest challenge has been staying healthy but he seems healthier now. Love the move.
The Giants also acquired high variance lefty relievers Amir Garrett and Ethan Small to compete with Erik Miller for an Opening Day roster spot.
When looked at as individual moves, there are things to really like about them. Several positions are upgraded and add dimensions the Giants lacked the last two seasons. On the other hand, I believe I and several other analysts identified frontline/ace pitcher as the team's biggest Hot Stove League need which is why Yamamoto going to the Dodgers was such a huge disappointment. He seemed like the perfect fit and the type of free agent worthy of a huge contract. Just maybe not THAT huge? While Hicks and Ray are nice under-the-radar/outside-the-box moves, they really don't fill that need.
With that in mind, I am going to give this Giants Hot Stove League a C grade with an opportunity to upgrade to a B if FZ can sign at least one pitcher in the Ryu/Lorenzen/Clevinger tier and an A if he can somehow find a way to sign Blake Snell. Keep in mind, though, that Hot Stove League championships do not always translate into MLB championships. In fact, they usually don't.
Having to consider competing against LA lowers the scale, but knowing they only need to be beaten in a short playoff series nullifies attempting to compare to them. In baseball, the best team only gets the best record and a division title. No more, no less.
ReplyDeleteIf you leave LA out of the rating because they are bending the rules to spend exorbitantly, something the players union loves and won't allow baseball to be like ALL the other sports who prefer a level playing field, the Giants have had a GREAT off season which will be a SUPER off season if they snag another SP that performs. Or two.
A- or B+ depending on what they add in pitching, B- if they do nothing.
As a minimum they have improved for 2025.
If they sign Chapman, reduce the the grade across the board because they worsening the team overall in the future and throwing away a lot of money in the out years.
I have been kinda hard on FZ but Doc's post reminds that he did do some good things, mainly Lee, Soler, and Murphy and getting rid of a lot of dead weight and bad players/contracts, even if they were all FZ's mistakes in the first place. And then maybe some good things for the future with The Ray trade and Hicks to SP FA signing as which I see as gambles and a big ???? for this season but have much more downstream upside then for this year.
ReplyDeleteStill, how does the team stand now? For the offseason and the coming season, I still saw/see MAJOR flaws..FZ whiffed AGAIN on many FAs..followed by so much propaganda and "the Giants tried" stuff..and all the noise about players not wanting to play in SF and/or for FZ...And then I look at the roster NOW and with my brain I see the following: 1) A mess of a starting rotation for THIS YEAR., way too many question marks. 2) A mess of LH RP after Rogers..3) No lefty utility IF' s , heck any utility IFs (not buying this OTTO guy) and a lot of pressure on LUCIANO and 4) not enough improvement to the OF (RHB? maybe MATOS??) (though I do like SOLER for DH). Now, you add one more SP and it easily changes the grade for the improvement to the rotation and for the development of the kids.
Ah, the development of the kids and the chances they may get. I am stoked to see all the young SPs but only in the right environment (one more vet pitcher)..and hopefully the bulked up LUCIANO cam handle the pressure and MATOS has the new strength to take advantage of a chance. and maybe even FITZJARRAL/SCHMIDT...heck maybe even Eric MILLER as a LHRP. ANd then there's a full season of BAILEY..And then there's JOEY BART..Oh, wait...
So, since I am all over the Map, and consider both the present and future, I guess I also have to give him C...For now. But either way, it is going to be an interesting and very important season.
SteveVA
We should not forget to add in the signing of Bob Melvin as manager when we grade the hot stove. He will improve the team in subtle ways, bring in some toughness with the coaches he has added and hopefully an improvement in the clubhouse. APGiantsfan
ReplyDeleteMLBTR predicted Snell signing 7 years @ 200M.
ReplyDeleteSince Snell is historically excellent, very good, and just good, it might be reasonable to guess-timate him that way:
2 years excellent @ $35M/year = $70M
3 years very good @ $28M/year = $83M
2 years good @ $20M/year = $40M
7 years: $193M is close to MLBTR, just $1M/year below.
Snell is very good but $200M is an optimistic guess: it predicts no down years through age 36.
Although CG's are no longer common, in 191 starts, he has never had a complete game. By comparison, the Giants had 4 last year.
He has not, in either of his CYA years, averaged as much as 6 IP/start, and only 2 years ago he averaged less than 5 IP/start. Last year, he pitched 7 innings in 3 of his 32 starts.
The team that signs him knows that they will need 3-4 bullpen innings in his starts.