Tyler Beede, RHP. DOB: 5/23/1993. 6'3", 210 lbs. Drafted 2014 Round 1, #14.
AAA: 6-7, 4.79, 109 IP, 6.85 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, GB/FB- 1.69.
AFL: 0-1, 4.50, 16 IP, 4 BB, 11 K, GO/AO= 1.13.
Disclosure: I've been a Tyler Beede fans since he was a high school draft prospect. I was very happy when the Giants drafted him and felt he could be the steal of the 2014 draft(I had him going to the Cubs at #4 or wherever they were drafting instead of Kyle Schwarber. And yes, the Giants might still get the last laugh on THAT one!). Beede has definitely had his ups and downs in the Giants minor league system and last year was mostly a down. I am not going to try to convince you he had a great season, but I am going to try to show that it was not as bad as it's been made out to be in some circles.
Before his season was cut short by a groin strain, Beede made 7 Starts in what I call "high and dry" PCL cities including Reno, Colorado Springs, Salt Lake City, Albuquerque and Las Vegas(not high, but very dry and a wind tunnel blowing out). His ERA in those 7 Starts covering 31.2 IP was 7.47. Only 1 of his "disaster" starts was not in one of those cities. His ERA in his 12 other Starts covering 70.1 IP was 3.33. His Home/Road splits were not quite as dramatic, but still significant: 5.43 Away, 4.01 Home. Likewise, his overall AFL line is a bit deceiving because he got rocked in his first AFL start, allowing 5 ER in 2 IP. In his other 4 Starts, he allowed just 3 ER in 14 IP, with 1 BB, and 10 K's.
Baseball Census, linked to the left, posted a scouting report of one of his poor starts in Salt Lake City. The difficulty of the environment was noted. They reported his FB to be 92-93 MPH up to 95 MPH when he really reached back. His repertoire is 2-seam FB, 4-seam FB, cutter, curve, changeup. In this particular game, he was spiking his curveball and the changeup was fading down and out of the zone and batters were laying off it. They also noted that he did a good job of maintaining his composure in some tough situations.
I could be all wet, but I think Beede may be one of those kids who pitches better in the majors than the minors. At the very least, he only has one "high and dry" city to worry about and at least that park has a humidor which I guarantee those PCL parks do not.
He has a shot at a rotation slot out of spring training, but he will need either a boffo spring or an injury to someone ahead of him on the depth chart to get it. Most likely he returns to Sacramento for more salt. He will likely make his MLB debut sometime in 2018.
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It seems like Tyler Beede has the talent to be a good major league starting pitcher, so he needs to have a great spring and force the Giants to consider him to make their 25 man roster.
ReplyDeleteLG
When you say that Beede "will need either a boffo spring or an injury to someone ahead of him on the depth chart to get" a rotation spot, do you think he is #6 at this point, behind the 3 big dogs and Blach and Stratton?
ReplyDeleteMLB depth has Beede ahead of Blach, but, like you say, what's with that? -- Blach's been there.
Other than Suarez, who else has started games? Holland? Gomez? Tyler Herb?
#4 is going to start Game 4 in Los Angeles -- aha! -- that sound like Ty Blach! He's 2-2 with a 1.046 WHIP in 7 games/36 innings (career), 3 good starts last year and the GREAT start in LA in 2016.
Pencil that in!
At this moment, I think #5 is probably Derek Holland's to lose with Blach #6 and Beede #7.
DeleteFrom above: Blach: " ... 3 good starts last year and the GREAT start in LA in 2016."
DeleteThe "3 good starts last year" meant against LA (in 2017).
How many pitchers can say that for last year, against the Dodgers?
Given history, albeit SSS, wouldn't Bochy lean toward starting Blach in LA Sunday, April 1?
I can go with Holland 5, Blach 6, Beede 7: for me it depends on how much the Giants can "fix" Holland.
ReplyDeleteLots of good nuance to Beede's performance, thanks, I'm now more enthused about his prospects of pitching well in the majors, those places can really wreak havoc to a pitcher's ERA. I can even go with Beede 6 and Blach 7, based on the numbers you provided.
I still like Suarez, there's something about him that I like a lot, his high level of performance at every level, along with his ability to keep his walk rate low, no matter the level he has pitched at. Until his 2.7 BB/9 at AAA last season, which is still good, his highest was 1.9 BB/9 the season before.
I would go with Holland, Suarez, Beede, Blach, Heston as my order, I think the Giants can figure out enough about Holland to get him to win that last spot over the others, and I really like Suarez's ability to keep the walks low. Beede has had a lot of up and down in the minors, Blach was really bad in late 2017, and appears to be one of those show should not be allowed into the 3rd time with the lineup, and Heston has done nothing but struggle since his one great season with us, along with the no-hitter.