Sandro Fabian, OF. DOB: 3/6/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 180 lbs. IFA 2014.
Low A: .277/.297/.408, 30 2B, 11 HR, 5 SB, 2.0 BB%, 17.5 K%, 504 PA.
Hitting .277 with 30 2B, and 11 HR in Augusta is no easy feat. The list of good prospects who have struggled there is long. So, Sandro Fabian's full season line is actually quite impressive. On top of that, he just kept getting hotter as the season progressed slashing .311/.331/.473 with 8 of his 11 HR's in the second half. He hit .370 in August and .476 over his last 10 games. So, what's not to like here? Welp, it appears he graduated from the Frankie Pegs school of hitting where students have it drilled into them that they absolutely cannot walk off the island! On the other hand, the most HR's Frankie Pegs hit was 10 at age 22 in San Jose so Fabian is showing some power at a much earlier age in a more difficult hitting environment, especially for power.
Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs who is actually quite high on Sandro has written repeatedly about how bad his 2017 season was. I think he is focusing on the walk rate almost exclusively because that actually pretty impressive performance from a 19 yo in Augusta. Longenhagen scouted Fabian in the Fall Instructional League in Arizona this last October and posted this report: "He's making among the loudest contact at Instructional League with multiple exit velocities in excess of 100 MPH during my in-person looks. He tracks pitches well, has great timing and bat control and can drive balls to all fields. There is a special offensive talent here, and I'm still buying stock in Fabian even after a horrendous season!"
OK, I love what I'm reading here until I get to the word horrendous. I agree the walk rate is a concern, but Sandro Fabian actually had a pretty good season in Augusta. If Eric Longenhagen wants to see a truly horrendous season, he might want to look up what Christian Arroyo did in Augusta or Ryder Jones or maybe Pablo Sandoval in 2006. By 2008, Pabs was hitting .345 in his MBL debut.
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You and MLB rank Shaw above Fabian and who would disagree?
ReplyDeleteHowever, from MLB prospects:
C Shaw: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 20 | Arm: 55 | Field: 40 | Overall: 50
Fabian: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45
Power rules! It doesn't matter if you hit below average, field and run considerably below average -- if you project pop you get a considerably higher rating.
Comparing a 24 yo to a 19 yo and beating the kid down on power (although they add that he probably has average or better pop -- shouldn't that be a 50?) is problematic at best.
I like Fabian -- he's a "fringy" 5-tool guy, isn't he?
Part of the ranking of Shaw ahead of Fabian is proximity to the majors. If you go purely by tools and ceiling, I would rank Fabian higher.
DeleteAnd once again, please don't get too hung up on the exact order here. On a different day, I might have flip-flopped Fabian and Shaw and been just as happy with my list. The point of this exercise is to become more familiar with the Giants of tomorrow. Making the list is more for fun. Everybody loves a list!
DeleteYou and I are in total agreement regarding Fabian's performance in Augusta: to do what he did in Augusta as a 19 YO is on the special side. Horrendous walk rate, granted, but when someone is hitting well enough, you want him to swing the bat, not take walks like, say, Bocock, until pitchers figure out he won't swing enough.
ReplyDeleteOf course, he'll have to do it again with each move up, it's never easy for the non-Top-100 prospects. But I agree, he outdid what Pablo did there, and Pablo did OK as he rose. But I feel very good about what he did there, he actually started slow, but once he figured out the pitching, he hit .800 OPS over the last 3 months. Never easy, but he figured it out. Now he needs to do it again in San Jose.