Monday, December 5, 2016

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Mark Melancon

Leading up to the Winter Meetings, the Giants had one huge priority.  They had to come away with a frontline closer!  Anything less would have been a major psychological setback.  There were 3 frontline closer available on the FA market:  Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.  You might count Wade Davis as being a frontline closer available on the trade market, but the Giants could not afford to waste precious time on trade talks and risk coming up empty.  Chapman and Jansen have more dominant stuff and more dominant strikeout numbers than Melancon, but there are a whole host of reasons why getting either of them was a longshot.  Again, rather than waste time chasing Chapman and Jansen while some other team made off with Melancon, the Giants focused on him like a laser beam from the minute the Hot Stove was lit.  They brought him to SF they made no effort to hide that he was their guy.  They came to the Winter Meetings and closed the deal on day 1.

It wasn't fancy.  It wasn't brilliant from a wheel and deal perspective.  There were probably more imaginative ways the Giants could have solve their closer problem.  A GM like Billy Beane would almost certainly have not gone this route.  On the other hand, there is something to be said for understanding what your needs are, setting your priorities and then getting the deal done.  That type of focused efficiency and decisiveness is what has characterized the Bobby Evans era as GM.  He pulled if off again.

So yeah.  Mark Melancon was the guy the Giants had to get.  Yes, he's expensive at 4 yrs/$62 M.  Yes there is risk here.  No, the Giants had no other reasonable option.  There were plenty of "second tier" options out there, but all came with significant question marks.  After last season's bullpen debacle, the Giants could not afford a question mark in the closer role.  They had to fill with a no-doubter.  That was going to cost a lot of money. The Giants probably got the best deal out of the big 3.

The contract is structured similarly to Johnny Cueto with an opt out after two years.  Like Cueto, if you add in the signing bonus money, the contracts are frontloaded for the first 2 seasons making it more likely the player will choose to opt out.   I get the feeling that in both cases, the Giants are actually hoping they opt out after the 2 years so they are not stuck with the more risky back-end of the contracts, but that remains to be seen.

As for the rest of the Winter Meetings and Hot Stove League, the Giants are now in a position where they can be on the lookout for ways to improve the team, but don't have to do anything.  Evans has already said he probably will not be signing any more RP's except maybe a minor league deal or two.  As for LF, if the Giants feel they need a veteran with a track record in LF, I'm OK with that.  They know more about player evaluation than I do.  I'll just say as a fan, if they stand pat and go with Mac Williamson and/or Jarrett Parker, I'm more than OK with it.  They have  backup plans already in place as Eduardo Nunez could play LF with Conor Gillaspie taking over at 3B if they had to.  Austin Slater should be ready by midseason.  Steven Duggar might be.  They can also make a midseason trade if they  have to.

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The Dodgers agreed to terms with LHP Rich Hill for 3 years/$48 M.  If fully healthy for a full season, Hill is worth every penny.  That is a big if as the 110 IP Hill pitched last season is the most since 2007 and just the second time in his career that he's topped 100 IP.  Last year, the Dodgers and Dave Roberts did a good job of splicing together a season out of a stable of injury prone pitchers, who…..were injured a lot!  We'll see if they can keep that magic going in 2017.

25 comments:

  1. have no doubt that with a real closer the giants pen is going to look a lot better than last year.
    evans isnt a wheeler and dealer...he is nuts and bolts and he didnt really make too many mistakes last season, although the duffy deal did hurt the team's morale...but sometimes when you have a need, you gotta do stuff you dont wanna do
    bacci

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    1. Evans was a bit tentative in his first offseason as GM, but since then he's put together a pretty strong resume:

      Cueto Signing- A

      Samardzija Signing- B

      Denard Span Signing- C

      Nunez Trade- B

      Will Smith Trade- C-(Could still work out as a win, but giving up both Bickford and Susac might have been too much for the return. Bochy could have done a better job using Smith too).

      Matt Moore Trade- A-.(gave up a lot but got a lot. Loved his last start of the season against the Dodgers and he had Game 6 of the NLCS won before the bullpen meltdown)

      Mark Melancon Signing- Too early to tell, but it had to get done and Evans got it done.

      I like his drafts so far, although that might be more of a John Barr thing.

      The tentativity showed up again when he did not pull the trigger on trading for Melancon at the deadline, but we don't know what the Pirates were demanding in return. Was it Matt Duffy or Joe Panik, which might have made it impossible to get Moore?

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    2. Correction: It was Game 4 of the NLDS that Matt Moore had won and the bullpen blew.

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    3. Re Moore & Duffy: I was a bit upset at first. Duffy was 'the little engine that could.' The kind of guy that makes you think 'had I only tried harder' or 'had more family support in athletics' I 'could have made it. Though, to be honest, he was probably so far ahead of anything I could do athletically that I'd be kidding myself. But guys like that have special places in my heart.

      But I'm happy with Moore coming in and Duffy being replaced by Nunez. We had 2.5 reliable pitchers, thanks to Samardzija's mid-season struggles, when we got Moore. And while he'd been up-and-down, there was a lot of positive press explaining why he was down (mechanics) and that they'd been fixed.

      And while Nunez isn't, defensively, as good as Duffy (who massively exceeded my expectations), he doesn't suck either. And I think the team can win with him at 3B and Gillespie as his infield/3B relief.

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    4. As much as I loved Duffy, he seemed like a risky bet going forward. Good to sell high and get a proven starter with front line upside on a really team friendly contract. Besides, maybe Duffy faulters and Giants can claim him off waivers so he can be NLCS savior in 2018!

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    5. Lol! Great thought Bryce. Count me in on that boat.

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  2. Hopefully he's the 'real deal' , I hope his pitching characteristics bodes well for Giants as they are a (infield wise) defensively orientated team.

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  3. The Giants have a habit of striking first before the market sets some. This was their play all along on this. One move I wouldn't mind them doing is signing Justin Turner. He could play 3rd and allow Nunez to shift to LF. Would also deal a blow to the Dodgers. I can also see them in on a Fowler too perhaps. I Just don't think they will go into the season with Parker and Mac in LF although I would be interested to see what those two could do in a larger role.

    Billy Baseball

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    1. I hear what you are saying re. Turner, but he has a very bad knee and the back end of whatever contract he get is going to be very bad for the signing team.

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    2. I really hope they steer clear of Turner. He's hurt, older, and blocks Arroyo's clear path to the majors. Plus, giving the dodgers current FO a first round pick is risky. They're doing good things in the draft.

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    3. The Giants are just fine with Nunez. Great glove, great arm, great speed, above average hitter with decent pop.
      https://youtu.be/bAa5-0ReXLA
      The Giants are fine with Williamson in LF and the platoon of ( Dead arm) Span and Hernandez in CF.
      https://youtu.be/ko1wtGOjj_Y
      Can't wait for next season.

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  4. Glad to have him. Spotrac is reporting that his contract is actually back loaded after the opt out. Unless I'm looking at it wrong. A vet to platoon with Williamson or/and another BP arm would be nice, but I would also be happy if this was all the Giants did in free agency. That would mean that they believe in Big Mac and their younger arms in the BP.

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    1. $14 M in the first 2 years plus a $20 M signing bonus = $34 M in first 2 years with $28 M in final 2 years.

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    2. Half of the signing bonus will be paid out after the first two years - in fact, if I read it correctly, a large portion will be paid beyond 2020, so that's the back loading..

      At this point, I have to assume that the interest in the Giant's structuring these signing bonus is from some sort of tax perspective.. Also, of course, it's great for the players.

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    3. That's not how Spotrac is reporting the bonus being allotted. They report his bonus is spread out 3 million per season during the duration of his contract with another 8 million deferred till after 2020. So your numbers are the exact opposite. Unless they are reporting it wrong.

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    4. In terms of a decision to opt or not opt out, it does not matter when the bonus is paid out. He still gets the money. So for the purposes of the opt out decision, it is a front loaded contract.

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    5. Thanks for clearing that up, I really didn't know that. Probably why I like this site more than others due to how informative and cordial people are here. Unless as I suspect you screen comments to keep it civil.

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    6. I do moderate the comments, but post well over 90%. I appreciated everybody who comes here and reads daily and appreciate the commenters even more!

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    7. From the reports, Melancon gets $4M salary in 2017, $10M in 2018. His bonus is split with $12M in 2017 and $8M at the end of the contract, similar to Cueto's deal. So if he opts out in two years, that's when he gets it, and if he don't, he gets it in 2020. And if he does not opt out, he gets $14M in 2019 and 2020, plus the noted $8M bonus afterward.

      So the calculus for him to opt out is whether he thinks he can get at least $28M from a team after opting out. And unless he is injured or perform really poorly as a closer, he probably opts out, as good closers should still be making $14M per year, if not more.

      I agree with DrB that the Giants are probably betting that Cueto and Melancon will opt out after two years, taking a calculated risk. Odds are that even at their age, they can put together two good years, enough with salary inflation that they will expect to get a bigger deal by opting out. Bumgarner is the only one I think they would bet on long term.

      I believe the hope is that Beede is ready to slot into the rotation once Cueto leaves and that they would have figured out how to get Samardzija to pitch well more consistently. And that Melancon will teach our young relievers how to be a closer: Strickland, Law, Okert, with one or more then being ready to take over when he opts out. Melancon's route to closer involved having his first good season at age 26 and then breaking out and becoming a closer at age 28. All our young relievers are in that age range, so I assume that the Giants hope one aspect of the signing is him grooming our relievers, like how they signed that Pirates starter to help groom Cain.

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  5. Evans as asked about McCutcheon today.

    “When you invest heavily in your rotation and you invest heavily in your bullpen and you invest heavily in your first baseman, your shortstop, your catcher, your right fielder, your center fielder, at some point, you need your farm system to raise up,” Evans tells Shea. “…Ultimately, you can’t lose sight of the fact your farm system is there for a reason. Successful organizations give their farm systems a chance to produce, and some of that production doesn’t get realized until it’s at the big-league level.”

    Sounds like it's Mac or bust!

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  6. i understand the tommy john history is important but 17 mil per year in the first 2 seasons still sounds like a lot for a closer....but i guess that's the market nowadays...

    Doc. do you think Strickland, Will Smith, Law, Osich or some other giants prospect will be able to take over for Melacon in two years or even next year if he falters? Or you think we will have to sign or trade for another closer in the future?

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    1. Too early to tell. 2 years goes by quickly. I suspect if Melancon opts out, the Giants will have to go back to the FA or trade market for their next closer.

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  7. If Lopez would take a BIG cut for another bite, he might be worth a year. Mentor? Presence? History? Comes in armis?

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