Bryan Reynolds, OF. DOB: 1/27/1995. B-S, T-R. 6'3", 200 lbs. Drafted 2016 Round 2 #18, #59 overall.
2016 SS: .312/.368/.500, 12 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 6.4 BB%, 24 K%, 171 PA.
2016 Low A: .317/.348/.444, 5 2B, HR, 4.5 BB%, 30.3 K%, 66 PA.
Bryan Reynolds was ranked as a first round draft prospect by many analysts going into the draft. It is unclear exactly why he fell to the Giants in Round 2. Signability concerns are the most often cited reason, but he also could have been seen as a "tweener" by some teams, not quite a CF on defense and not quite enough of a hitter to play corner OF on offense. The Giants seem to like drafting tweeners in general, so that notion probably did not bother them.
At any rate, Reynolds had a more than solid pro debut playing at two levels, SS and Low A with 3 games added in High A for the Cal League playoffs where he went 4 for 12(.333) with a HR. Coming off 3 college seasons in which he hit substantially over .300, Reynolds has not hit less than .300 at any level or situation at least since HS!
Scouts seem divided over whether he can stick in CF which if he can, sets him apart from other OF prospects as it is not common to find a CF of his size and power potential. On the other had, most scouts seem to agree that he has enough bat to play corner if he can't stick in CF. Eric Longenhagen raised a concern about a large L-R split but I looked it up and he hit .291 from the right side in Salem-Keizer. His RH BA of .241 in Augusta was an extremely small sample size. Others have noted his strikeout rate approaching 30%. He still has time to improve that, but it's probably more important for him to get his walk rate back closer to his college levels.
I'm personally excited about the idea of a switch-hitting CF of his size and power potential in the organization. I think he will likely start 2017 in San Jose, but will likely be promoted to AA by midseason if he hits well, which I expect him to. I think he is also a fast mover and should be competing for an MLB role by late 2018 or 2019.
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From what I read on Reynolds I think the reason he fell is he doesn't really fit profiles:
ReplyDelete1. May not have enough range for CF.
2. Arm isn't strong enough for RF.
3. Doesn't have LF power.
Personally, I just don't know. He's certainly been impressive with the lumber at the levels he's played though being more conservative than most, I'd rather see him play another year before 'Top-5ing' him... But it's your blog and there's no rule everyone needs to be as conservative as me... :)
Brian Sabean once said his drafting philosophy was basically take a bunch of shortstops and then move them to where you need them. I think you can extend that to CF. Maybe his bat would be underpowered for LF, but if he's a borderline CF, his D in LF should be good enough to more than make up for any offensive deficiency.
DeleteNot sure what you read but I watched a video of the commentary of Dan O'Dowd on MLB channel as well as Eric Longenhagen's comments on Fangraphs and both said the main reason he fell was most likely signing concerns.
Anyway, I have not given up on the idea of him playing CF just yet, which might be why I rank him higher than you. If I was convinced he was a LF at best, I'd probably have him ranked lower too.
You have to guard against the temptation to focus on what a prospect can't do instead of what they can do.
DeleteSo you're guaranteeing that Reynolds will be a better CF and hitter than Mays? Love the optimism!
DeleteBut seriously, that's a cool little story and thanks for sharing.
To kar120c,
DeleteI think kennv was just giving you a nudge there. You're response was fine except for the tie in to the current political climate which is way too hot to bring into a baseball discussion, even though I know you were not overtly promoting any particular viewpoint.
If you want to re-submit with comment with the political analogy taken out, I will give it full consideration.
DrB