He recorded an ERA of 2.78 with 20 Saves for the Astros in 2012, but was traded in the offseason to Boston for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland. He got off to a terrible start in Boston and was optioned to AAA. He as called back later in the season, but finished with an ERA of 6.20 even though his K and BB ratios remained strong. That offseason, he was shipped to the Pirates in a multi-player trade. His career really took off in Pittsburgh starting as the setup man for Jason Grilli but quickly working his way into the closer role. His numbers from 2016 are representative of the past 4 seasons with the Pirates: 2-2, 1.64, 71.1 IP, 1.51 BB/9, 8.20 K/9. He is a strong groundball pitcher with 54.2 % GB's. He also keeps the ball in the yard with a 6.3% HR/FB. Looked at another way, his GO/AO has approached 2.00 over the past 4 seasons and he allowed just 10 HR's in 289 IP. He gets about twice as many GIDP's as he gives up HR's.
Melancon is not a classic closer in that he does not throw particularly hard. He averages just under 92 MPH on his 4-seam FB, but he only throws it about 10$ of the time. His workhorse pitch, which he throws about 70% of the time, is the cutter which he throws almost as hard at an average of 91.0 MPH. It's a great pitch that he can use to jam left-handed batters and work the outside corner on RH batters. His main secondary offering is a knuckle curve which also serves as a changeup at 81 MPH. All 3 pitches are at least above average in terms of effectiveness by Fangraphs rating with the Cutter being his most effective pitch and a definite plus offering.
By all measures, Melancon should be the shutdown closer the Giants sorely lacked last year, which should also stabilize the rest of the bullpen and allow Bruce Bochy to return to the more traditional bullpen roles he is comfortable with and bullpens seem to like. The only dark cloud on the horizon is that he might be nearing the end of the shelf life for his TJ surgery which occurred 8 years ago. If that were to happen off the bat, the Giants would be stuck with a large 4 year contract. They seem to be hoping they can get at least 2 good seasons out of him as he has an opt out after 2 years. The way the Giants front loaded the contract when you add in the bonus money makes you think their ideal scenario would be to get 2 great seasons out of him then let him opt out and take the TJ risk to some other team.
Melancon is not a classic closer in that he does not throw particularly hard. He averages just under 92 MPH on his 4-seam FB, but he only throws it about 10$ of the time. His workhorse pitch, which he throws about 70% of the time, is the cutter which he throws almost as hard at an average of 91.0 MPH. It's a great pitch that he can use to jam left-handed batters and work the outside corner on RH batters. His main secondary offering is a knuckle curve which also serves as a changeup at 81 MPH. All 3 pitches are at least above average in terms of effectiveness by Fangraphs rating with the Cutter being his most effective pitch and a definite plus offering.
By all measures, Melancon should be the shutdown closer the Giants sorely lacked last year, which should also stabilize the rest of the bullpen and allow Bruce Bochy to return to the more traditional bullpen roles he is comfortable with and bullpens seem to like. The only dark cloud on the horizon is that he might be nearing the end of the shelf life for his TJ surgery which occurred 8 years ago. If that were to happen off the bat, the Giants would be stuck with a large 4 year contract. They seem to be hoping they can get at least 2 good seasons out of him as he has an opt out after 2 years. The way the Giants front loaded the contract when you add in the bonus money makes you think their ideal scenario would be to get 2 great seasons out of him then let him opt out and take the TJ risk to some other team.
You know what I like about him? He's efficient, effective and BORING. AFter the roller-coaster-ride of Casilla the past four-ish years, I really need a dull, no-excitement kind of closer.
ReplyDeleteGood call MZD...the Giants and us fans need efficiency from our closer. No drama, lots of boring ground ball outs and 3-up-3-down innings. Plus no walk-off balks, no mound meltdowns and holding base runners on. It will be a pleasure to watch Melancon serve up a big 'o heaping of pine meat.
DeleteMy mind still thinks had we had Melancon last half year, we would have had Cueto on the mound for game five and the Cubbies would still be waiting..,
And to your point, MosesZD, we have actually had a lot of roller-coaster ride, for the most point, since Nen's shoulder gave out, with Herges, Hermanson, Benitez, others, BWeez was not for the faint of heart either, even Romo, who didn't allow many baserunners, had the unfortunate habit of allowing gopherballs at inopportune moments, to go with Casilla.
DeleteMelancon looks to be THE stopper we have been waiting for a long time now.
This is really the best option out of the big 3 closers and we had to get one of them. He didn't cost a draft pick and will end up being the cheapest of the three. He isn't sexy but he gets the job done with the best of them. I like the move as well because they went after him quickly and didn't mess around trying to low ball or flirt with Jansen or Chapman first. Every other team that was looking for a closer this offseason just threw up a little in their mouths knowing how much they are going to have to pay for one of the other two.
ReplyDeleteThat's the Giants M.O. under Sabean: identify who you want, go after them hard; repeat as necessary until you sign someone you really want, and not muck around trying to get the best price or contract. There is so much money out there, as long as it is within industry bounds with a stretch for inflation and such, they just go hard and try to sign as soon as possible.
DeleteThanks for the great post on Melancon, particularly his history. No other news source noted his TJS, all did mention that he was never on the DL his whole career in the majors, making it seem like he's been a healthy horse this whole time, particularly given the emphasis on his physical preparation.
ReplyDeleteThis, unfortunately, brings up for me, memories of another early TJS survivor who was also noted for his fanatical physical preparation, who eventually had his second one in his early 30's: Brian Wilson. Do you know if there has been any study of players who came back from TJS, how many years, on average, until they have their second one or lose effectiveness? That would be interesting to know.
Since Melancon had his in 2006, it has been 10 years since his surgery, so that, to your point, seems like a warning light should be on. That is roughly how long Wilson had after his TJS before his second one, which as BWeez noted at that time, the record of recovering from your second TJS is pretty low. Of course, only one datapoint, but still, would be interesting to know what the history is.
Found some TJS data, but only about guys who had a second one, and thus excludes all the guys who had one TJS and never had another one. Still, wanted to share for anyone who cares, it is a public spreadsheet with all TJS info that the author could find: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/edit#gid=2096785497
ReplyDelete