Saturday, January 16, 2016

Hot Stove Update: Ian Kennedy Signs With the Royals and Chris Davis Re-Ups With the O's

Two big FA signing went down yesterday as Ian Kennedy signed a surprisingly strong 5 year/$70 M package with the Royals and Chris Davis signed a 7 year/$160 M deal to stay with the Orioles.  Kennedy's deal includes an opt-out after the second season while Davis' deal reportedly includes long term deferred money.  Hate Scott Boras or not, but he almost always gets the goods for his clients.

Kennedy's deal is probably the more surprising of the two.  He's been a replacement level pitcher for 2 of the past 3 seasons and I thought he would be lucky to get a 3 year deal.  Many analysts thought he should have accepted the Padres QO, and I was certainly leaning in that direction myself.  Well, he obviously got a much better deal than a QO or a 3 year deal!  Kennedy may well turn out to be a worth it for the Royals, who were heavily criticized for signing Edinson Volquez last offseason and look how that turned out for them!  Kennedy has always had strong peripheral numbers even in his down seasons, so he is a good bet to bounce back.  It's just that when you make that kind of investment in a player, you want something more secure than hoping for a bounceback.  On the other hand, the Giants spent $251 M on 3 players who are all going to need to bounce back some to justify their contracts.  I would have been happy with an Ian Kennedy signing by the Giants, but probably not at this price.  I'll take Cueto and Samardzija, thank you.

Chris Davis and the Orioles finally go a deal done after weeks of brinksmanship negotiations on both sides.  Davis is a bit challenged for Batting Average but has been the premiere HR threat in baseball over the past 3 seasons.  The Orioles really had no comparable alternative to re-signing him and his career has thrived in Baltimore, so it seemed like both sides needed each other.  I think the O's needed Davis a bit more than he needed them, though and that's why he ultimately got a very sweet deal.


  1. I'd rather be betting on Chris Heston to fill out my rotation than pay Kennedy 5/$70M. This is the problem with overpaying mediocre pitchers, you're "hoping" for bounce up, but to what and over 5 years?

    That's why I love the Giants because if Cueto, Shark and Span are even average they are very good players. And if they bounce back, you got two ace starters and a stud CF. That's a high and very reachable ceiling for all three players.

    Chris Davis, thank god the Giants figured out they don't one guy hitting dingers to field a baseball team. Been there, done that = 0 WS.

    1. Yeah, I think that's a serious overpay for Kennedy. Before we signed Shark and Cueto, Kennedy was one of the "might be worth checking" pitchers on my list, if the price were right. But I wasn't thinking anywhere near those numbers (more like 3yr./$30m. in my mind). I mean, he's a serviceable starter but no where near an ace.
      Davis was never on my list. Not a good fit for what we need.