Sunday, January 31, 2016

Hot Stove Update: D'Backs Make Another Bad Trade

The D'Backs traded RHP Chase Anderson, 2BAaron Hill and a prospect to the Milwaukee Brewers for SS Jean Segura and a pitching prospect.  Here is the breakdown:

D'Backs acquire:

Jean Segura, SS.  B-R, T-R.  DOB:  3/17/1990.  5'10", 2015 lbs.

2015:  .257/.281/.336, 6 HR, 25 SB, 2.2 BB%, 15.9 K%, fWAR= 0.3, 584 PA.

Segura burst onto the scene 3 years ago with one of the better first halves of baseball I can remember.  He ended that season with a .295 BA and 44 SB's.  He was the darling of fantasy baseball drafts the next season and then tanked.  Now, looking at those numbers, if he was playing for the Giants last year, I would probably be defending him, but even I have to admit that OBP is terrible and severely undermines his value.  It's unclear what role he will play in Arizona and it's not clear that he's an upgrade on Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings in the middle IF.  He does add some versatility in that he can play both SS and 2B and may still have some upside that Ahmed and Owings don't have.  As for Milwaukee, they have Jonathan Villar to take over at SS until top prospect Orlando Arcia is ready.

Tyler Wagner, RHP.  DOB:  1/24/1991, 6'3", 195 lbs.

2105 AA:  11-5, 2.25, 152.1 IP, 7.09 K/9, 2.66 BB/9.
2015 MLB:  0-2, 7.24, 13.2 IP, 3.29 K/9, 4.61 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.59.

Wagner is a groundball pitcher with a FB that runs about 90 MPH.  He bombed in a brief MLB trial last year, but might have better luck next time after some more seasoning in AAA.

Brewers Acquire:

Chase Anderson, RHP.  DOB:  11/30/1987.  6'0", 190 lbs.

2015:  6-6, 4.30, 152.2 IP, 6.54 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.22, Average FB Velocity= 91.5.

Anderson was probably no higher than #6 on the D'Backs SP depth chart, but most MLB teams need their 6'th starter quite often.  Anderson was a relatively rare SP who gained velocity over the course of last season.  His best pitch is a changeup which is quite good.  He is under team control for 4 more seasons.  His tendency to give up HR's won't be helped much, if any, in Milwaukee.

Aaron Hill, 2B.  B-R, T-R.  DOB:  3/21/1982.  5'11", 200 lbs.

2015:  .230/.295/.345, 6 HR, 7 SB, 8.8 BB%, 15.3 K%, 353 PA.

Hill has had an up and down career, mostly down over the past 2 seasons.  He's been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness.  He has one year remaining on his contract at $12 M.  The D'Backs are reportedly sending $5.5 M to the Brewers to cover part of his remaining salary.

Isan Diaz, SS.  B-L, T-R.  DOB:  5/27/1996.  5'10", 185.

Rookie(Pioneer):  .360/.436/.640, 13 HR, 12 SB, 10.9 BB%, 20.8 K%, 312 PA.

Here's why this is a bad trade for the D'Backs:  Diaz may be a long way from the major leagues, but he is quite the lottery ticket.  He was the D'Backs 2S pick in 2014, #70 overall.  He hit just .197 in his pro debut, but with some power and Kiley McDaniel called his bat "advanced" even before he put up a 1.076 OPS in the admittedly hitter-friendly Pioneer League.  He's a SS for now, but will probably move to 2B at higher levels.  He's not the sure thing that Dansby Swanson is, but again, the D'Backs give away a high ceiling prospect for what, a marginal IF upgrade at best?  Man, there are going to be some D'Backs fans grinding their teeth in the not-so-distant future!


  1. Huh...I don't see this as a 'bad' deal, but more of a 'meh' deal. Breaking it down to Hill for Segura, Anderson for Wagner, and Diaz as 'sweetener', it looks pretty even to me. Segura seems like a bit of an upgrade on Hill, at least defensively (neither is likely to hit all that much). Both Wagner and Anderson would likely be bullpen pieces for the D'Backs who can fill in start if needed. So the 'wild card' will be Diaz, and if he develops into a Major Leaguer. Which is hard to predict with someone this young.
    Certainly not a great trade, but not bad.

    1. Huh? Are you kidding? It's a TERRIBLE deal! Hill can't play SS, but has a better chance of a bounceback offensive season than Segura. I'll be generous and call Hill for Segura break even for the D'Backs. Anderson is an established MLB pitcher with 4 years of contract control left while Wagner is a fringy prospect. Big win for the BrewCrew. Then there is Diaz who we both seem to agree is a nice get for the Brewers. Terrible, terrible deal for the D'Backs!

    2. To start: Hill's salary is $12 mil, Segura is $2.6. Segura is younger and has more upside, while Hill might hit a bit better this year but has been on a downward trend overall.
      Wagner is better suited for the 'pen, where the D'Backs have needs, than Anderson. And Wagner is younger, with maybe a little more upside. Anderson wasn't making the D'Backs rotation this year barring injury, so he's expendable.
      So it all comes down to how Diaz pans out, which we won't know for several years.
      Sorry, but I stick by my position: Not a great trade, but certainly not "terrible".

    3. The part you missed there is the $5.5 M the D'Backs are sending the BrewCrew. It's a terrible trade for the D'Backs!

    4. OK, if you're right, well, I'm OK with the Diamondbacks getting worse. So, call it a "salary dump" (the D'backs still come out saving about $4.6 M overall).
      If Diaz turns out to be an elite player, then it could be a terrible deal.

    5. added: Look at it this way; none of the players involved would likely make the Giants 25 man roster this year. How nice does that feel?

  2. Thoughts on LA resigning Howie Kendrick?

  3. I think that this is a good deal...for the Giants! Aaron Hill always seems to overperform against the Lads in French Vanilla.

    Let's Go Giants!


  4. D backs fans might be grinding their teeth if they don't make the playoffs this year. They seem to be mortgaging their future to win now with their moves.Diaz, Swanson, Blair, Inciarte, Touissant are all either good Prospects or MLB players that they may regret giving up on later..