Sunday, January 10, 2016

DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #18 Jarrett Parker

Jarrett Parker, OF.  B-L, T-L.  DOB:  1/1/1989.  6'4", 210 lbs.

AAA:  .283/.375/.514, 25 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 20 SB, 12.3 BB%, 32.5 K%, 504 PA.
MLB:  .347/.407/.755, 2 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 0 SB, 9.3 BB%, 38.9 K%, 54 PA.

Jarrett Parker is exhibit A for why it is so hard for a young player to break into MLB, especially for a team that thinks it has a chance to win its 4 championship in 6 seasons and a team that has money to spend on free agents.  I mean, look at both of those stat lines.  What more do you need to do?  Those are numbers that you would think would make a GM say to himself, "we have a problem in LF?  Problem solved!"  OK, you say, it's not about what he did in AAA.  The PCL is notorious hitter's league and the Giants have a long history of OF prospects coming up and falling flat on their faces in the majors.  It's also not about what he did in September last year.  Anybody can get insanely hot for 54 PA's.

OK, then let's take a look at what we might reasonably expect Jarrett Parker to do with the starting LF job next year.  We'll look at his Steamer Projection:  .234/.308/.387, 13 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 8 SB, 8.8 BB%, 32.2 K%, 339 PA.  Take a look at the PA's and let's project those numbers to 600.  You get about 18 HR's, and 14 SB's.  Do you know how many OF's had at least 18 HR's and 14 SB's in MLB last year?  6.  That's right, 6.  Now, SB's and HR's aren't everything and all that adds up to a modest 0.7 fWAR, but the point is the Giants would not have been exactly throwing in the towel on the season by making Jarrett Parker their starting LF out of Spring Training.  Of course, he might still be, but as of right now, he has both Pagan and Blanco in front of him on the depth chart.  Now he'll likely have to hope he can deliver enough off the bench to get a shot during the season when the inevitable injuries start to happen.

Right now, Jarrett Parker is looking like the 5'th OF coming into the season.  It's his big chance to gain a toehold in the major leagues.  His ceiling is starting OF on an average MLB team.  His 3-true outcomes approach is something I would think might interest Billy Beane, especially after that 3-dinger performance in Beane's yard last year.  I could see Beane signing him after a DFA with Parker responding with 2 or 4 seasons of 20 HR's and 15 SB's with the A's.

One more thought:  Early in his career, Parker had a very awkward looking batting stance.  It was like he didn't quite know where to put his long arms and legs in the batter's box and he always looked a bit off-balance, kind of leaning back a bit.  To my eye, he looked much more comfortable at the plate last September.  He was in a big more of a crouch with his weight centered over feet and between his feet.  He was back off he plate an inch or two which allowed him to lean slightly forward.  This helped him avoid getting jammed on the inside corner while his long arms still covered the outside corner.  He could spring out of his crouch with a power stroke in one motion.  Just another thought, but Brandon Belt might want to take a look at that stance.


  1. While I still question whether Parker will be able to make the offensive adjustments necessary to be a regular MLB outfielder, it's fair to say his performance has earned him this spot in the top 20. I've got him #19 on my list, and we know how far he's come to be in this spot. Repeating levels multiple years, and for many years being known as the guy drafted after Gary Brown. But he persevered, and very few minor league prospects (or big leaguers for that matter) will ever put together the string of performances he showed during that run last September. That was certainly enough to open my eyes, and I've been one of his biggest detractors.

    Cove Chatter

    1. His biggest issue is probably the high K rate. There may be teams out there that do not care about K rates, but the Giants do not appear to be one of them in their current organizational philosophy.

  2. The Giants need a power threat off the bench and JP certainly provides that. Add in some speed and decent defense and he makes a useful #5 OF. I think he is what he is at this point and more AAA seasoning is not going to vastly change him. Let's give him the chance to spend all of 2016 with the big league club and let Mac work on his overall game in Sacto. Next season JP can serve as a platoon partner to Mac or the #4 OF.

  3. Parker on Doc's Top 50:

    2012: 16th
    2013: ---
    2014: 27th
    2015: ---
    2016: 18th