Thursday, January 28, 2016

DrB's 2016 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #36 Derek Law

Derek Law, RHP.  DOB:  9/14/1990.  6'2", 210 lbs.

AA:  0-1, 4.56, 25.2 IP, 11.22 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, GO/AO= 1.05.

A couple of years ago, Derek Law was a spring training phenom who some people thought might make the jump from San Jose to the majors.  Things did not go well and a couple of months later, he underwent TJ surgery.  He came back midseason last year in AA Richmond.  Although the ERA does not look good, there is nothing wrong with the K and BB rates, albeit a small sample size.  2016 will be his first full season back from TJ and it would be no surprise if he moved fast.  He has a high probability of becoming a solid MLB reliever with an ETA of 2017.  He may have an outside chance of sticking in 2016 with a great spring training.


  1. I was one of the ones who was enamoured with Law making the club in 2014. I was so disappointed when he didn't, but there really wasn't room for him and he didn't deliver a knock-out blow. Not terribly sure what happened in 2015. I figured it was his first year back from TJ surgery and I shouldn't really read anything into it.

    1. Those K and BB numbers are mighty nice looking. 2015 was probably just SSS bad luck.

  2. Law in Doc's Top 50:

    2013: 49
    2014: 16
    2015: 20
    2016: 36

    (28th on Cove's '16)

  3. There is an article on Fangraph's noting the difference between Steamer projections and fan's projections. While the fans of all teams believe their players will outperform Steamer, Giant fans are the most optimistic.

    Interesting subject as to the why of this. Is it that Steamer is projecting regression to the mean (Crawford)? Is it because the lack of player pedigree (Duffy)?

    It would go hand-in-hand with the farm being consistently rated lower than it performs (and the success this has translated into for the Giants.) Kelby is called out as very high on the fan (irrational?) exuberance scale, Steamer WAR/600 being 0.4, Fan 3.0.

    It feels like the Giants continuously outperform projections.

    1. I don't know if Steamer counts minor league performance in it's calculations, but Kelby had a rather sudden breakout in the minors which the projections may not completely buy into. Those of us who watched him last year and saw what a tough out he's turned himself into might have a better vantage point than a projection system that only looks at numbers.

    2. I didn't save the original steamer projections of the Giants from last year. And, of course, they don't either because, accountability -- who need it, right?

      As far as the Farm goes... That's easy to prove the Giants farm is under-rated. At least at which puts their rankings out there for all to see and even keeps their prior player ranking in the player biography.

      Anyway, the evidence is there to see. Remember Keury Mella? He was the #5 Giants prospect when we traded him. He's now the Reds #6 prospect and #94 over-all. He was NOT in the MLB Top-100 when he was a Giant and he only became Top-100 after the trade. In fact, no Giant was (or is) in the MLB Top-100.

      Yet, with the magic of the trade (and no breakout while with Cincinnati) he's now #94. Which means Beede, Bickford, Arroyo and Fox (all of whom ranked ahead of Mellay) should be, by any logical or equitable process, above him. Yet they're nowhere to be found.

  4. 45:1 from a few years ago. That one still excites me.