The Giants finally jumped into the mid-season trade market, and landed the guy they probably had targeted all along. Mike Leake is solid mid-rotation starter who has thrived pitching half his games in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball. I have a bit of a personal stake in Mike Leake because he has been on several of my fantasy baseball teams including this season where he has been, well, a solid performer.
The Giants have been rumored to be Mike Leake admirers for a long time and Leake has been rumored to have San Francisco high on his list of preferred destinations when he reached FA eligibility, so it seems like it could be a match made in heaven. He's not Cole Hamels or David Price, but he is certainly more than competitive with the pieces the Dodgers acquired and he did not require taking on a $%&#load of dead money nor a huge haul of prospects to get.
Oh, there will be gripers about this trade. Keury Mella was ranked by mlb.com as the #1 Giants midseason prospect. I mean, how could they trade their #1 prospect for a 2 month rental? I love Keury Mella's arm just as much as the next Giants fan, but IMO, they have a lot of comparable arms in the organization and I would not rank him ahead of Tyler Beede or Phil Bickford. Hey! Maybe mlb.com helped the Giants out with that ranking by goosing Mella's trade value while letting the Giants hang onto the guys they really wanted to keep?
Again, Mella has a great arm, but his performance on the mound has been somewhat inconsistent and a number of keen-eyed Giants prospect watchers have noted his high-risk delivery. Some nationally known prospect analysts have him pegged more as a bullpen arm than a future starter.
As for Adam Duvall, I wish him all the best. He has some serious toonder in the bat, but it is not clear he will ever make consistent contact at the MLB level and he is pretty much stuck at 1B or DH. He was clearly not in the Giants future plans.
So, where does Mike Leake fit into the Giants rotation? It would seem that barring an imminent injury, Tim Hudson is the odd man out. It also moves Tim Lincecum farther away from ever pitching for the Giants again. As for the current rotation pecking order, I would rank them 1. Bumgarner 2. Leake 3. Hesto Presto 4. Peavy 5. Cain. I don't see Huddy pitching out of the bullpen, so he has to go somewhere.
This really seems like a similar play as the Hunter Pence trade in 2012 where a team and a player who have long term interest in each other get a chance to audition for a longer term commitment. Leake will be a FA at the end of the season, but don't be shocked if the Giants make signing him to a long-term deal a priority in the offseason. Had Leake stayed in Cincinnati, he would have been eligible for a QO, and the Giants don't like to lose first round draft picks. This trade makes Leake available to them as a FA without having to give that up.
In conclusion, love the trade. The Giants chances of winning another World Series just got significantly better. The Giants know their stuff on these trades. They rarely, if ever, give up a future star in the process.
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I love it too. Leake has a 2.28 ERA this year when he's out of the Cincy bandbox, he has a groundball rate only a few pct points lower than Hudson's (to help make best use of the Giants' excellent IF defense), and he eats innings. That might mean at least a fresher bullpen, and maybe a slightly smaller one. He's 27, so is presumably in his prime, and although he will have a FA salary after this season, isn't likely to boost the caution level by requiring a long-term, high-AAV contract. And we can hope, as the Giants explicitly do, that his moving to a more pitcher-friendly park will boost his relative value: he's at 1.6 fWAR currently.
ReplyDeleteHow good Mella is, I don't at all know. But I do know that predicting the future wondrousness of Single-A pitching prospects is a very shaky business. Unless someone is sizzling through the minors in the manner of Bumgarner, I feel pretty cautious about extrapolating. As to Duvall, he had no future with us.
Love the trade as well. I know Bobby Evans is technically the GM but how much input or control do you think Sabean had on the trade? Personally, I'd feel more comfortable knowing Sabean was basically the one to engineer the trade, because I worry that Mella will become a star, and a first time GM could give up too much. Do you know how the share of responsibilities work in the Giants FO now that management has changed a little?
ReplyDeleteI have no reason to believe Sabes did not have input. He's out there scouting for some reason.
DeleteI think Sabes was seen personally scouting Leake earlier this season.
Deletehuddy pretty much hit all hit bucket list with the giants....so he can hold his head high,,,great career for a great ballplayer and wonderful human being
ReplyDeletebacci
I made similar comments regarding the 'big 3' pitching prospects. I also pointed out that he had a delivery (the inverted W) that is (at least supposedly) prone to higher rates UCL tears. Also he did have the shoulder problem last year. And while I have no gripe with his #1 prospect ranking (and might have gone that way myself at the end of the season) I also know that if you take a snap shot of club's Top-10 prospects in any year, only 3 will ever make the majors in any significant way. And even if they make it, they may end up only as marginal players.
ReplyDeleteIn 2011 the Giants Top-10 (per MLB) were:
1. Gary Brown (Fail with marginal outside recovery hope)
2. Francisco Peguero (Mexican league)
3. Charlie Culberson (Cup of coffee MLB career, in AAA, 7-day disabled)
4, Ehire Adrianza (Still has a great glove, still can't hit in the MLB, time is really running out on him though I do retain some small hope.)
5. Eric Surkamp (57 MLB innings, 6.47 ERA, little chance of sticking in the show. I think he's on the Dodgers farm club right now.)
6. Tommy Joseph (Phillies AAA club. Has concussion issues. Is now moving to first base to salvage career. Has some power so he has a chance.)
7. Heath Hembree (Recalled from AAA, then sent back to the minors by RedSox, hasn't looked good against MLB hitters)
8. Chris Dominguez (Just DFA'd by Reds on 7/27, went 1 for 7 (HR) in his cup-of-coffee call-up)
9. Hector Sanchez (Injury concerns (concussion prone?) and has been passed by Susac and Garcia in the C prospect rankings.)
10. Conor Gillaspie (Made it to the big show. Was cut by the White Sox for a rookie. Plays for the LAA. Modest hitting, poor fielding 3B.)
So, yes, Leake is a 'rental.' But the odds are against Mella ever making a significant impact in MLB.
OTOH, unless he gets hurt, Leake becomes the third-best pitcher on the team and solidifies the biggest problem the Giants are facing -- suspect rotation -- in winning the division and advancing into the playoffs. Plus, if what Dr. B says about the Giants and Leake in FA, I don't think this trial run could hurt.
So I'm happy about the trade because, as of now, I think we have four quality starters -- Bumgarner, Heston, Peavy & Leake. I'm hoping Cain can solve his command issues because he is throwing strikes and the issue seems to be that he's just putting too many strikes in the wrong spot of the strike zone.
PS. I'm glad the Giants traded Duvall. He was truly stuck and I hope does well with the Reds. It was a shame he's so defensively limited.
ReplyDeleteYep, hope Duvall can figure out contact at the MLB level. Guy really abuses those pitches he connects with.
DeleteI wasn't a big fan of Mella. He had a live arm, but a lot of risk he wouldn't pan out. I like Chase Johnson more.
ReplyDeleteNow it's just a question of the numbers that the Giants will resign him at 5/90, 5/70, or 4/55 special. Of course, they will wait until end of season. I think it's a miracle in itself that the Giants got through the trade deadline without having to give up Beede! Very thankful Reds took Mella!
ReplyDeleteNot much new to add...Just adding my voice to "loving the trade"...Yeah, Mella is a very good prospect but you gotta give to get...And if the Giants were willing to give up Mella, it means they truly value some of the other arms like Chase Johnson and others..And I will trust them big time...As for DUVALL, I like the kid, but had no future home for the Giants and had to be traded..I truly hope he succeeds in Cin or elsewhere.....
ReplyDeleteBut the big thing is Leake. I truly think people are underestimating in...Guy is only 27 and has continued to get better year by year to where, this season, he is one of the better pitchers in the NL. WIth his age, stuff, the Giants Ballpark and the Giants infield, I see no reason for him not o improve any more this season and in the future...Which means he can be a very big component for the WS run this year and, if re-signed, the next 2-3 years..Love the move....
Two other things...
One, Giants desperately need some IF depth form the trade market or within (Frandsen/Tomlinson/Cabrere)....
second, and it shouldn't be minimimzed.....with Madbum, Leake and Heston, the Giants have the best hitting starting pitchers in the game...by a fair amount....This could really be important in any NL PO series and even the home games of the WS..
SteveVA
From these three , Frandsen/Tomlinson/Cabre, Tomlinson seems to be getting the lion's share of playing time, and he's playing 2B, SS, and 3B. No doubt the Giants have a plan. It will be interesting to see what it is come September . . . or sooner.
DeleteReally like this trade and I think Hunter Pence comparison makes a ton of sense. We get a guy who can pay immediate dividends. Helps the pen since he eats up innings. Will do very well in a pitcher friendly park and we have a great shot to resign him. We are still left with our two best pitchers (Beede and Meija) and a guy who might be as good if he fixes his head (Crick). Plus we have Blackburn and Stratton waiting in the wings. Not including Brickford and Marshall. That is 7 guys to replace 3 starters, and could be 2 if Leake is signed. Very good depth. Mella might be good, but we have plenty and this was a position of strength. Trading Duvall means we didn't give up other pieces (Broadway or Cordier for example) and get a guy off our 40 who was blocked. Good for us and good for him too.
ReplyDeleteWhat two prospects will be added to the top 30 now that Duvall and Mella are gone?
ReplyDeleteWhat top 30 are you referring to? I'm not sure Duvall was even in my top 30 at all. IMO it's a lot more complicated than that as there are new draftees making their mark, Lucious Fox to add in and lots of players with rising and falling stock. I prefer to wait until the offseason to put a new list together, myself.
DeleteI don't think the Giants gave up too much to get Leake.
ReplyDeleteMy only concern is if re-signing Leake in the offseason prevents the Giants from signing someone like Greinke, Price, Cueto or Zimmerman to slot behind MadBum. They really need a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, and Leake won't give us that, which is fine. But, that is something the Giants need to give them a good chance at plowing through the playoffs.
I don't really expect the Giants to sign one of those pitchers in the offseason regardless of whether they re-sign Leake. I think they will go hard after Leake and then sign another FA or two who do not get QO's.
DeleteTK - I think it all depends on what Peavy and Cain do the rest of the way.(Hudson/Lince/Vogey all gone)..They will have MADBUM and Heston and they will do all they can to sign LEAKE ...If Peavy and Cain pitch the rest of the way like they have since coming back from injury, I could see the Giants only doing Leake....and bridging the final year to some younger arms......
DeleteOTOH if injury befells either Peavy or Cain, And youngsters still iffy I could see them going all in for a big arm
So far down the road, let's win the World Series first!
SteveVA
It might matter what their W-L record is for this season. The draft pick that they would lose if they signed an FA with a QO gets worth less the lower they are in the draft order. The Giants got Bickford with a #18 position, so could feel good about not signing someone who'd make them forfeit it, but even then they were willing to lose it for Lester or Shields. I will guess that they will be more willing to lose the draft position if it's a 26th spot.
DeleteA friend of mine who is a Red's fan is not happy. Says Mella would only be ranked as 6th best prospect for them now. Didn't care about Duvall. IMO If they can resign Leake this is a going to be good regardless of what Mella does. I still think they are going to get a reliever too.
ReplyDeleteBilly Baseball
not 100% certain since I don't have the list from Wednesday, but all moved up one since Mella was ranked one, so now Beede one, and must have added Chase Johnson to 29 and Dylan Davis at 30, since I think Duvall was 30th on the MLB.com midseason ranking
ReplyDeleteI know this is consistent with where several other players were ranked Wednesday (they've now moved up one)
This is a great trade for the Giants. Beede, Blach, Blackburn, Mejia, Chase Johnson and Biagini will provide depth for starting pitching next year with possibly one of them getting the #5 slot in the rotation in 2016. Because of the depth, the Giants may not need to go after a high priced SP for 2016. Our future bullpen is looking good (and cheap) with Law, Broadway, Osich, Okert, Crick, and Cordier waiting in the wings. Strickland looks like he might start pushing Romo and Casilla for the 8th and 9th innings.
ReplyDeleteWith Pagan's contract up after 2016, the Giants might want to look for a CF of the future in trade of via FA in 2016/17. The pitching looks like we got it covered for the near future, we just need to keep developing hitters, especially outfielders.
If they re-sign Leake that will give them 5 SP for 2016 including Madbum, Cain, Heston, and Peavy, so hard to see them signing another big $ SP.
ReplyDeleteI like the trade. While Leake isn't a "sexy" pickup, he seems like a good fit for the team for a lot of reasons. So this looks like the FO made a smart trade in this case. Look forward to seeing him pitch. The other good thing is Hudson handled it well.
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