Friday, November 21, 2014

2015 Giants Depth Chart: Starting Pitching Part I

Despite winning their 3'rd championship in 5 years, the Giants come out of 2014 with their starting pitching looking more unsettled and precarious than it has in more than 5 seasons.  The roster as it currently stands has 1 ace pitcher and 4 major question marks with not a lot of help immediately available in the upper minors.

MLB Starters:

1.  Madison Bumgarner- 18-10, 2.98, 217.1 IP, 9.07 K/9, 1.78 BB/9.  Undisputed ace of the staff and one of the elite pitchers in baseball, especially in the postseason.  The best part he is still getting better adding in the high heater and the slow curve late as serious weapons late in the season and postseason.

2.  Matt Cain- 2-7, 4.18, 90.1 IP, 6.97 K/9, 3.19 BB/9.  We'll pencil Cainer in as the #2 until proven otherwise, but lots of questions in the wake of his early season ending elbow surgery.  Can he fully recover?  What will his velocity be like?  Can he succeed with the same stuff and approach he is used to?  We could be at a career crossroads for The Hoss.

3.  Tim Hudson- 9-13, 3.57, 189.1 IP, 5.70 K/9, 1.62 BB/9.  Will the offseason be enough to rejuvenate Huddy?  He was tremendous in the first half last year, kind of collapsed down the stretch and was clearly out of gas by the end of the World Series.

4.  Yusmeiro Petit- 5-5, 3.69, 117 IP, 10.23 K/9, 1.69 BB/9.  Petit took over Lincecum's spot in the rotation down the stretch and was tremendous.  He carried that into the postseason.  He may be the second best SP on the team at this point, but has a history of inconsistency.  Rags tweaked the curveball and made it harder and sharper.  Is that the key to a new consistency?

5. Tim Lincecum- 12-9, 4.74, 155.2 IP, 7.75 K/9, 3.64 BB/9.  Maybe it was coincidence but Timmy fell apart when Hector Sanchez went out with the concussion.  He seemed to get a bit stronger as the postseason wore on, but Bochy still clearly did not trust him.  $18 M says he will be back in the rotation  to start the season, but for how long?  He has steadily lost velocity each season and was under 90 MPH for his average FB for the first time last year.  Tough to see him turn that around and tough to see him as a finesse pitcher.

Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong are both FA's.  The tea leaves are telling me that Peavy is gone, but that Vogey will probably be back on a similar deal as last year.  Vogey might be the guy who goes to the long relief/spot starter role.

AAA:

Chris Heston(RHP)- 12-9, 3.38, 173 IP, 6.50 K/9, 2.65 BB/9.  Heston is probably the 6'th starter as it currently sits, but it is almost certain someone will be brought in for that role before the offseason is over.  If not Vogey, then 2-3 minor league signs with ST invites.

Mike Kickham(LHP)- 8-8, 4.43, 148.1 IP, 7.95 K/9, 3.88 BB/9.  Kickham got worse as the season progressed.  At this point, his career seems to be going backwards.  Frustrating to watch because he appears to have good stuff.  Can he turn it around?  

Jake Dunning(RHP)- 0-3, 4.57, 65 IP, 7.06 K/9, 3.60 BB/9.  Dunning was exclusively a reliever until the final 3 weeks of the season when he got 4 starts.  The beat writers had been reporting that the Giants thought he might have a starters repertoire.  He went 3.60 ERA with 15 IP, 2 BB, 12 K's in those 4 starts.  Kind of a sleeper for 2015.

Austin Fleet(RHP)- 4-2, 3.95, 43.1 IP, 6.85 K/9, 2.70 BB/9.  AA- 8-1, 2.78, 97 IP, 7.14 K/9, 3.34 BB/9.  Fleet has been slowly and quietly working his way up the minor league ladder.  He held his own in the PCL which is a notoriously tough place to pitch.  Another sleeper candidate.

Kelvin Marte(LHP)- 1-2, 5.45, 36.1 IP, 5.20 K/9, 1.98 BB/9.  AA- 8-3, 3.83, 5.69 K/9, 2.38 BB/9. As you can see, Marte is an extreme contact pitcher.  I saw him pitch a couple of years ago with San Jose.  He had a FB that sat 90-92 MPH with a nice breaking ball and a solid changeup.  Longshot to be an eventual back of the rotation MLB starter.

Because of volume, we will cover lower levels in future installments.

38 comments:

  1. With Cain and Lincecum being a wildcard for next year I think we either need to sign a free agent or make a trade. I am pretty positive the Giants will not be making a splash in 2 areas. So, if we do not sign Panda or Tomas, would a guy like Lester make sense for the Giants. They have another 30+ million coming off the books after 2015 so I don't think Lester will ruin future plans. I just don't see anyone at the lower levels helping us in 2015. I would like to think we could get Panda and Tomas and also add a decent SP but I just home we make one decent move this offseason.

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    1. I expect the Giants to spend their money on position players and dumpster dive for additional rotation help. I am starting to think that they have a deal in place for Tomas dependent on whether they sign Pablo or not. Just a hunch.

      But yeah, if they have the $$$ to sign Pablo but end up not getting it done, they would be able to afford an ace pitcher such as Lester. Then it becomes a question of how long you want to commit to any pitcher. Somehow I think Lester wants to play either in the South or the East Coast though, so they might have to look at Scherzer or Shields or make a trade.

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    2. If we cannot get Panda for a "reasonable" contract, it would be cool to get anothrr young Cubano. I like your notion of Tomas deal ready to drop.

      Isn't Lester a NW native? Maybe a West Coast return isn't completely out of the question.

      NWGiantsFan
      DtF!!!

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    3. Lester was born in the NW, but he apparently owns his home and lives out in Georgia.

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    4. I've seen reports (= gossip) that Tomas can't field well, that he is lazy and not focused on willing, and that he has girth problems. That leaves me wondering whether one or more of the following is significantly true:
      1. He really can't field well, and so forth.
      2. Teams that realize they're unlikely to get him are claiming sour grapes.
      3. Teams that hope to get him are also hoping to discourage their rivals.
      4. People are rebelling against the hyper-hyping from his agent, Jay Alou.

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    5. Focused on winning

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    6. The Phillies' interest in Tomas has reportedly cooled due to concerns about his fielding. Giants have seen him workout 4 times. I'll trust their scouting acumen whether they sign him or not. Maybe they are more interested in Moncada at this point?

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  2. 1 stud and 4+question marks. There's a difference between being realistic and complaining.
    If they add one piece and get positives from at least 2 of the question marks, the team will be fine. But besides Petit those are guys trending down, so it's gonna be something to keep an eye on.

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    1. Sorry enwrit, the previous comment was an obvious troll comment so I hit the button on it. I agree with you here.

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    2. Just to clarify, it was not enwrit's comment that got the heave-ho.

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  3. As far as the SP market goes I think if we cant get Lester then we should make a trade. With the Blue Jays, Mets and Sox losing their picks already we keep getting a higher pick. I think we are sitting at 19. Depending on where the other FAs sign we might end up a few spots lower. I think we have a chance to get a special player with our pick. Shields is too old for a long term deal. Scherzer wants Kershaw money. Santana and Liriano IMO are not worth the pick. I like the idea of giving Petit a real chance so we need a legit #2 or #3 guy and we should be fine. Cain hopefully will be a glimmer of his old self and am very optimistic.

    I have fallen off the Pablo bus and think the best move we can make might be to try to sign Tomas and Moncada instead. Put a decent defender at 3b like Headley or Callapso so they make up for their offense in saving runs defensively. A lot of hype about Moncada saying he can play anywhere except SS and has plus speed and hits for average. He and Tomas would not cost us a QO and we would gain a comp. pick for Pablo. Pablo will kill us with his weight in the last 2-3 years and I don't think it is worth it. I know Tomas and Moncada are not proven MLB players but the writing is on the wall. If the Giants went to see him 4 times then their is something there. With all the talk about how Moncada will receive the highest bonus for a under 23 signee then thats another sign.

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    1. I agree with everything you said here. I just have visions of Pablo coming to camp packing 30 more lbs with the long term contract in hand. Just too much risk there with not enough upside for my taste.

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    2. Cain had bone chips removed. He didn't have muscle or tendon surgery, did he? Why shouldn't he be back to normal? If his problems this year and last year were because of the bone chips, why shouldn't he be good and dependable again? And the team ought to be able to make a good guess whether his problems did occur because of the bone chips. That means they should have a good guess whether the Giants can count on Cain or not.

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    3. Bone chips are the result of an underlying disease or trauma. What caused the bone chips in the first place? He also had bone chips removed trom his ankle. Does he have a tendency to form bone chips? Bone chips are usually broken off bone spurs which form as a reaction to trauma of inflammation. They can form surprisingly quickly.

      Hopefully Cainer will be back to his old self, but it would be no surprise if he isn't.

      I am not sure what the track record of pitchers who have bone chips removed is.

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  4. I'm not sold on Petit as a starter because he tends to get hammered in later innings (6th on) when the opponents figure him out and his ++control/deception. Which is, more-or-less, been the book on him his entire career, including this year for the Giants. Starts strong, but then he gets figured-out and hammered, but manages to keep you hooked on his potential with the occasional great game where they just don't figure him out.

    So, I think we need to pick up two pitchers and I think there are a number of quality 3/4/5 guys still out there.

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    1. Lucky the Nationals did not pick up on Petit by the 6th (17th) inning.

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    2. Petit should be fine as the #5. I guarantee if you look around the league he is probably better than most #5's. The problem is the drop off from Madbum. Then we have a few #4's at bedt. Although Hudson looked great in the first half. He was batting practice in the second half. If Cain can come in and be a solid #2 then things are looking up. Vogey might be retained again just for insurance for Lincecum or Petit. I like Vogey and think he might have one more season in him. I would rather put more time in the bullpen after Romo and Guiterrez are most likely done. I had high hopes for Strickland but after the playoffs I don't know what to think. Cishek would have been an awesome trade but I heard he is off the table. Pat Nishek would be a low cost/high reward guy. Andrew Miller is a little rich for my tastes.

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    3. He was 3-4 with a 5.03 ERA as a starter last year. And here's his 2014 line deep into games: Pitches 46-60: .414AVG .469OPB .793SLG 1.262OPS As a Giant, his three year 46-60 line is: .394AVG .442OBP .549SLG .991OPS. So, it's not just a 'one year' problem. It's not just the Giants. It's a career problem he's had from his first stint in the major through 2014.

      But as a reliever, this is his line: .177AVG .226OPB .246SLG .472OPS See how good he is in short-stints? This guy is excellent coming out of the bullpen. He's an outstanding RH middle-relief pitcher with marginal pitches, but fantastic control & deception. And I think that's great!

      But, as a starter, as you can see by the cold, hard numbers, he was routinely pasted when he got deep into games for his entire career. Which is not uncommon for ++control/deception pitchers who lack a plus pitch. They'll do great for half a game. Then, most often, they get figured out and the wheels come off.

      And there is no amount of wishful thinking that will change this. That is his career profile from when he was considered one of the Top-2 minor league prospects with the Mets and was traded to the Marlins. Great command. Great deception. Easily handles minor league batters.. In the Majors he gets hammered later in games to the tune of HOF-batting lines.

      And, yes, sometimes they don't figure him out. And I mentioned it. So it's not like I was being unfair and unbalanced in my reservations and pretending that he doesn't, sometimes, tease you into thinking he's going to make it in MLB as a starting pitcher. Take the near perfect game against the D-Backs two years ago. Yet just before that game he had a 5.37 ERA in 251 1/3 major league innings as a starter. Years of futility and a tease and people jumping on the bandwagon because, for one night, one team just couldn't figure him out.

      But you can't build a championship rotation on the back of a guy that is, if you're lucky, is going to fool 4 teams a year and do something special when, while most of the time, he's going to get hammered somewhere in the 5th or 6th inning.

      Anyway, it's not like the book isn't there. And it's not like he hasn't fooled teams and fans time-and-time again. People keep seeing these great control (K/BB) numbers, but it never translates into 'solid starting pitcher.' Because he doesn't have what it takes to be a starting pitcher in MLB -- a 'plus' pitch.

      A good reliever, yes. I'd love it if we kept in the bullpen as the #1 RH middle-reliever. He's great at it. As a a starter... He's got bad numbers.

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    4. Moses, Moses, Moses! There you go again! You have accused me of cherry picking stats, but nobody does it more than you!

      Petit made 12 starts last year. In 1 game he gave up 8 ER in 4.1 IP, and in another he gave up 6 ER in 4 IP. Take out those two poor starts and his ERA is 3.47 in the other 10 starts. Petit can give up runs in bunches when his command is off, but it doesn't matter whether you lose by 1 run or by 10, it's still just one loss. Most of the time he is more than adequate as a 4'th and 5'th starter.

      How many 4'th and 5'th starters can you name that routinely go deeper than 6 innings in games? Almost every pitcher in baseball not named Madison Bumgarner does way worse the 3'rd and 4'th times through a lineup.

      Petit will have a few spectacularly good games and a few stinkers. Most of the time he will be somewhere in the middle. It is perfectly reasonable to give him a try at 4'th or 5'th starter as long as there is a back up plan.

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    5. I totally agree DrB. Why spend or trade to fill the 5th starter role. I will be happy with either Petit or Vogey. Either MadBum had a few outlier games. Maybe his mind was somewhere else, sick or just not feeling it. Petit is no different. Besides the Colorado and Pittsburgh game he was above average in my opiniob. Pencil him in and hope for the best.

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  5. Starting pitching is the Giants bedrock foundation of our WS dynasty run.

    2015 starting pitchers, I believe DocB is right - the bedrock is shaky. The Giants will hitch their wagon to MadBum. They will hope/pray that Cainer returns to pre-perfect game dominance. And they will hope/pray that the combo of Timmy, Timmy, Petit & Voggie "Lawyers That Throw Strikes for You" will be competitive enough. Finally, I expect Sabes will dumpster dive for 2-3 more starters/long men. Maybe this gets them to the playoffs and we all know what MadBum & 4 guys throwing 2 innings or less can do from there.

    2016 Timmy, Timmy & Voggie will be gone. And so will $30M+ off the books. The Giants will need 2-3 new starters - preferably young, cheap and dominate homegrown arms from the Farm. Realistically, if they get one #2 or #3 starter (Beede, Crick, Blackburn) and a #5 starter (Mejia, Blach, Mella) from the farm they will be doing very well. And realistically this means a FA and/or trade by 2016 for another frontline starter. They will have $20M stud money to pay a frontline starter and stay under budget. I think Sabes does this deal in 2016, depending the timing and development of the farm arms.

    This year is either a Panda or a Cuban. The rest will be filler (not that filler doesn't win WS).

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    1. Oh, and the Giants have $20M/yr in mortgage payment cost coming off the books in 2017.

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    2. Saw some video of Bede. Wow, his rep is earned. He's all over the place. (Small sample size notwithstanding.) The gurus are going to have their work cut out for them getting him reigned in.

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    3. I agree Shark. I really am banking that out Crick, Blackburn, Beede and Blach that at least 1 of them will stick on our MLB roster in 2016. Would be awesome if 2 could. With all of that money coming off the books I think we have the money to sign a frontline starter like Lester but I don't want to lose or round one pick. I really like Tyson Ross of the Padres from what I saw. Heard Padres were dangling him. Would be a great pickup if they would trade within the division.

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    4. I think I know what video of Beede you are referring to. He walked the first couple of batters in that inning but then settled down and looked quite sharp.

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    5. Shark,

      Great follow up point to a very good post.

      Perhaps AT&T Park being a privately financed concern is the most remarkable aspect of the Team of the Decade. Incredible...in an era of corporate welfare...where a $7B entity like the NFL doesn't pay taxes.

      Hat tip to the Grey Beards and the RDF!

      And another $20M off the books in 2017!

      NWGiantsFan
      DtF!!!

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    6. Knowing Charles Johnson, I suspect the $20M will be pocketed and not find its way into the Giants budget. But it is real $$$ and it would be nice to see them invest it into the team.

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    7. I'm showing my ignorance here, but my guess is that Charles Johnson is the primary owner of our favorite team (I'm also an old Vikings fan - they have 2 Charles Johnsons on their starting roster)...I agree, it would be great to see it be reinvested in the team (or ballpark upkeep, etc.). Having seen the Safeco Field taxpayer swindle up here, I do find it remarkable that PacBell/AT&T was built with private funds. Kudos to Peter the Pink, Mr. Johnson, Duke Neukom, whomever - still a cool rarity in today's fiscal environs.

      To Quote Stan Lee: Nuff Said. Let's Go Giants!!!!

      NWGiantsFan
      DtF!!!

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    8. I think it is a safe bet that the Giants will not go over the luxury tax threshold with payroll no matter how much money they are making. I'm OK with that.

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  6. No way Sabean doesn't sign a top tier FA starter. He see's the same thing we does and knows it is not near enough pitching in our division let alone to win the NL again. Look for him to sign at least one top tier guy and may be even trade for another or a second tier guy.

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    1. I don't know. Sabes has had a lot of success for a very long time dumpster diving for starting pitching. I just don't see him forking over the type of contract it would take to get one of the top tier starters.

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    2. Not until 2016 and not until the farm doesn't produce 1-2 starters. Can't see Sabes spending/trading big on a frontline starter until he is forced to.

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  7. It's one thing to dumpster dive when you are doing it behind guys like a healthy Cain, Lincecum ad Madbum and are looking for some back end guys. it's another to try to use that approach when realistically you only have one guy you can count on and the rest question marks at best. Look at the Dodgers and even the Padres, we don't come close to their starting rotations and won't with another dumpster dive. We need a solid 1/2 and that is going to require us getting at least 1 top tier FA and perhaps another one or a 2nd tier guy. No way Sabean is not seeing that.

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    1. Just look at Sabean's history before he had Cain, Lincecum and Bumgarner. Barry Zito is the only top tier SP he's ever gone after. Think he wants to do that again? Don't get me wrong. I understand your reasoning here, but if you are a serious Sabeanologist, you will understand that he thinks he can find good SP just about anywhere and is unlikely to go after one of the top tier guys.

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    2. We aren't necessarily worrying about the Dodgers and their big pockets. History just showed us that 2nd place in the NL West is good enough to win the world series. We don't need $150mm players to win the wildcard. I hope we try to get Lester but trying to trade for a player mid season when teams start to get out of contention would be fine with me.

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  8. Top tier FA means losing a 1st round draft pick, except for Lester, and giving out a long-term contract of the sort that may bite us with Cain and would have bitten us with Lincecum. With guys like Masterson and McCarthy on the market, I would think Sabean could make a smarter deal. He needs to see how Cain is throwing, in any case, before he goes for, and pays for as to dollars and contract length, a top tier guy.

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  9. What about Justin Masterson? He would seem like a good buy low pitcher for the giants. He would be pretty affordable and playing in AT&T with the giants stellar infield defense behind him might do wonders.

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    1. MLBTR reported that the Giants are one of the teams that has asked for Masterson's medical records.

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