Monday, November 11, 2013

Scouting the Draft: Luke Weaver

Luke Weaver is ranked as the #5 overall draft prospect by Big League Futures, linked to the left.  He's a RHP from Florida State who put up terrific numbers in last year's college season.  BLF's scouting report has him throwing both a 4-seam and 2-seam fastball that sits 91-94 MPH and reportedly hit 97 this summer.  He also has a change and a slider.  He throws from a 3/4 to low-3/4 arm slot which could give him trouble with LH hitters, but he reportedly has enough bite on the slider to attack LH hitters with it on the inside corner.  At 6'2", 170 lbs, he does not have quite the ideal size you are looking for in a first round draft pick, but that is probably quibbling.  6'2" is certainly adequate.

Here are the numbers from his first two college seasons:

2012  1-0, 5.93, 41 IP, 21 BB, 40 K's.

2013  7-2, 2.29, 98.1 IP, 19 BB, 119 K's.

As you can see, he has a very nice combination of strikeout stuff along with great control.  I see him as a Mike Leake type of pitcher who would probably give you a nice MLB #3 or 4 right out of the box, but might not have much more upside than that.  BA's comp is Tim Hudson.

As already mentioned, BLF has him ranked as the #5 overall draft prospect, which I think is too high considering all the talent in this draft.  Mack Ade of Mack's Mets has him at #18 in his early mock draft, which I think is more where I might rank him.  Matt Garrioch at Minor League Ball has him ranked at #19.  BA has him all the way down at #32.


  1. When it comes to non triple digits college guys, I would prefer them to be in the above average to plus fb w/ a plus change up mold. You can teach someone an average to above average breaking ball, look at Wacha. Change ups are a whole different story, and in my book plus change > plus breaking ball. Look at Stratton.... If it's between a slider/fb college guy or a flame throwing prep, go prep. High cieling all ways beats low floor.

    just my 2 cents

    1. I agree with all that. You go with velocity and with the guy with the changeup. These days, if he doesn't have a breaking ball, you can teach him a cutter.