Ryan Vogelsong put on one of his pitching clinics and made a statement for a spot in the postseason rotation as the Giants took game 1 of the next to last series of the season. Key Lines:
Marco Scutaro- 1 for 2. BA= .305. Scutaro left the game after 2 AB's with "head and chest congestion." That, folks, is not a good thing, not that Scooter is in any danger, but even a mild common cold virus going through the clubhouse could have a much more debilitating effect on the team for the playoffs than you might think.
Ryan Theriot- 2 for 3, SB(13). BA= .272. Theriot has been a gamer despite losing most of his PT to Scooter. He's hitting .375 over his last 10 games in just 16 AB.
Buster Posey- 2 for 4, 2B, 3B, BB. BA= .334. Buster takes a .004 lead on Andrew McCutchen in the race to the Batting Title. Meanwhile, Bruce Bochy announced that Hector Sanchez will likely catch Tim Lincecum in the post-season. By extension of the logic, he'll probably catch any Zito starts too. Personally, I have no problem with dancing with who brung ya. Hector Sanchez is not detrimental to the team and Buster's bat is more than good enough to play at 1B.
Brandon Belt- 0 for 4. BA= .275. Belt didn't have a particularly good game. He made a couple of nice plays at 1B but made an awful decision to try to throw out a lead runner on a ball he had to barehand. The throw sailed into LF which led to Nady sailing another throw over Sandoval's head at 3B. Belt was a bit lost at the plate again too. Again, I'm not convinced that Hector Sanchez is a significant downgrade on Belt in the lineup.
Brandon Crawford- 1 for 4. BA= .248. Crawford had a ball sail over Belt's head on a throw to first. He also had one tremendous AB that lasted something like 11 pitches against Anthony Bass ending in a line drive base hit to LF.
Ryan Vogelsong- 6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 3.46. Vogelsong put on one of his patented fastball clinics and dominated the Pads. Belt's Boner play put him in a runners on 2'nd and 3'rd with no outs hole. He pitched his way out of it masterfully. This was Vogey's second consecutive strong start which bolsters the theory that a big part of his slump was BABIP luck. OK, dominating the Pads in Petco is not the same as facing the Reds in their bandbox, but it's awfully encouraging.
The Committee- 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. The Committee was in full force tonight with Casilla getting the 2 out Save to help my fantasy team.
The Win by the NL West Champion Giants kept them 10 games ahead of the Dodgers who blanked the Reeling Rockies 8-0 behind Clayton Kershaw. The Cardinals clobbered the Nats 12-2 to remain 3 games up on the Dodgers for the final Wild Card slot. The BrewCrew lost to the 'Stros 7-6 to fall 5 games off the Wild Card pace with 5 games to go.
Madison Bumgarner goes against Eric Stults tomorrow night.
Homer Bailey pitched a no-hitter against the Pirates in Pittsburgh for a CG 1-0 win and I'm feeling like it might be better for the Giants to face the Nats in the first round of the playoffs.
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Dancing with who brung ya: I haven't really been able to follow the logic of all the protests about HSanchez's catching Lincecum and Zito. At the start of the year, predictions were that Posey would be able to catch 100 to 125 games, because of his repaired ankle and the rigors of catching. Logic would dictate that Sanchez would catch on a regular basis, and since he was a rookie, the best way to limit risk with him, in terms of dealing with what they threw and calling optimal pitches for them, would be to have him catch the same pitchers repeatedly. Since the Giants have five starters, the math suggests that Sanchez would catch two of them, about sixty games to Posey's hundred games. The two that he would catch wouldn't come right after one another in the rotation. This system would give Posey some complete rest days and some days playing first base. The Giants in fact followed something like that logical scenario. To see the logic is to ditch the need to come up with personal arguments about whether Timmy likes Buster or Barry digs Hector blah blah blah blah.
ReplyDeleteSince not even ardent Beltists believe that BB is a better hitter than Posey or Melky Cabrera, or can play LF better than Blanco, it was equally logical to have Belt sit for the games in which Sanchez was preserving Posey's health while the Giants could still profit from having Posey's bat in the lineup. I can understand (without necessarily agreeing with) the anger of the free-Belt crowd at seeing Huff or Pill in place of Belt at 1B, but I can't easily see why they've been outraged by the use of Sanchez to spell Posey at catcher during the regular season. How many games do they suppose that it would have been prudent to use Posey as catcher for, from April thru September?
If the plan I've outlined makes logical sense, then the question in the playoffs is whether to go all out with Posey so as to get an optimal lineup or to continue the same pattern as during the regular season so as to preserve continuity and familiarity at a time of high stress. I don't see that this is a simple question to answer. My inclination would be to trust a seasoned staff who know the players well and have experienced similar situations, rather than a vocal group of bloggers who happen not to know the players or the situations first-hand.
Excellent analysis, Campanari. You are on fire lately, my friend!
DeleteYou know, I love seeing young players develop. I believe Brandon Belt is either the Giants first baseman of the future or their LF of the future depending on whether they feel it's best for Buster to move permanently to 1B. I think Belt has a heckuva future as a hitter with prodigious power to go with his BA and OBP.
At the same time, the Beltists are once again putting him up on a pedestal that he hasn't earned yet. Yes, I understand what the stats say and I believe in their validity. Belt certainly brings something to the lineup that Sanchez does not give you right now. On the other hand, I also watch the games and see that a guy like Sanchez brings something to the lineup that Belt does not. That something is a certain attitude, particularly in certain situations.
Bottom of the 8'th inning, 2 outs, runners on 2'nd and 3'rd, tie game. Who would you rather have at the plate? Me, I'd take Hector in a split second! See, after watching both players all year, I firmly believe that Hector goes up there in that situation thinking he is going to get a base hit and win the game. Belt, as much as he's improved, goes up there hoping he doesn't blow the opportunity. Big, big difference!
I'm not saying that swapping out Belt for Hector in the lineup makes it a significantly better lineup, but I am saying that it doesn't make it signficantly worse. I do know that with the game on the line late, Sanchez is the batter I'd rather see up there at the plate. Add in the apparent intangible benefits of having Zito and Timmy pitch to a catcher they are familiar and comfortable with and it's at least a wash in terms of the Giants chances to win games.
One more point: I know what the RC formulas say, but those are theoretical runs produced. Sanchez and Belt have hit in similar spots in the batting order most of the season. Here's what they have produced in real life:
DeleteIn 456 PA's, Belt has produced 55 RBI's and 47 Runs while in 217 PA's Sanchez has produced 34 RBI's and 21 Runs.
In real life, Sanchez has produced runs at a greater rate per PA than Brandon Belt. Yes, some of that may be due to lineup context, but given that, Sanchez has produced as well or better in the lineups he's found himself in as Belt has in his lineups. There is actually a theoretical reason why you might expect those results anyway.
I wrote a piece a couple of weeks ago titled the The Hacking Bonus. I basically showed that given and equal BA, hackers give themselves more opportunities for hits, XBH's and thus RBI's that is at least a partial positive trade off for the lost times on base. When you are hitting near the bottom of the lineup, like Belt and Sanchez, the Hacking Bonus is magnified because if you simply get on base without driving in the runs ahead of you, the rally is likely to die with the #8 and #9 hitters.
In summary: The Giants lineup with Hector Sanchez playing instead of Brandon Belt is not an inferior lineup.
I agree with campari about Huff and Pill, and agree about Sanchez and Belt.
DeleteI also think they should leave him in one position., either 1B or LF. They can think about playing at both next year after some offseason mental and physical preparations. And if they do decide to do that, they should play him at booth regularly throughout the season.
Right now, it may be too late and too much.
Nice he is willing to try for the good of the team though.
BA has their NWL top 20 list up. Mac Williamson was the only S-K Volcano to make the list at #11. In the chat, they said Chris Stratton would probably have been #3 had he qualified.
ReplyDeleteWho else might have had a shot at the list?
DeleteProbably nobody. I liked Kentrell Hill's season at age 21 and he's supposed to have some tools. There were a couple of high velocity bullpen arms in Gardeck and Stephen Johnson. You generally aren't going to find names like that on top prospect lists though.
DeleteAlso, nice writeup on Chuckie Jones by Baggs for his regular Giants team report for BA. Chuckie had a nice season for S-K after falling on his face in 23 games with Augusta to start the season. Chuckie is still quite young and did not get a lot of experience on the travel circuit while in HS. He showed excellent plate discipline and some power in his S-K stint and the Giants love his D in CF.
DeleteInneresting choices for for the AFL roster: Chris Gloor, Jacob Dunnington and Heath Hembree. It's a chance for Dunnington, in particular, to take a big step forward in his career.
I had an observation that worries me a little from last night. Every year when a team goes to the playoffs there are certain players that you watch closely to see how they do under the pressure. Angel Pagan looks to me like a guy who is already feeling that pressure and I'm not impressed with how he is dealing with it. His at bats don't look all that different in terms of pitches he takes or swings at but it seems like when he does swing now he is pressing and not making good contact like he has over the last month or so. He is also running his mouth like a politician every time he takes a borderline pitch that is called a strike. He routinely shows up umpires over calls that he really shouldn't be getting bent out of shape about. He is setting himself up for a disappointing playoff by making enemies with every umpire (they all have to be well aware of his act by now) and the pressure has affected his swing.
ReplyDeleteThe key to this offense is the top of the lineup with Pagan and Scutaro. Obviously we need guys like Panda, Posey, and Pence to drive in runs but if Pagan and Scutaro aren't on base then there are much fewer opportunities to drive in runs. One of the reasons I really like Pence is that he finds a way to get the run home when he is up with a runner at 3rd and less then 2 outs. He wouldn't have half the opportunities if it weren't for Pagan and Scutaro constantly being on base. Much like 2010 with Torres and Sanchez, this offense will go as far as the top two batters take us.
I wlll give the benefit of the doubt for now.
DeleteHe did respond nicely after the Melky affair.
Pagan tends to run hot and cold. Playoffs are a small sample size, so the possibility exists that he could have a bad series or a bad 2 weeks and have it happen in the playoffs.
DeleteI've already said I'm a bit concerned about Scooter because he has been so hot for so long, a regression is actually overdue, unless you believe he found a new level at age 36 just as he was traded to the Giants.
To balance that out, Pablo seems to be heating up at the right time. I think Nady could come up surprisingly big. I expect a big postseason out of one of the Brandons or Hector. Posey should stay hot because he is a superstar who is capable of sustaining this performance.
Giants success or failure in the playoffs hinges on their pitching, which I am afraid is not as dominant as it was in 2010.
DeleteDocB, while I agree that the Giants success hinges on their pitching, their hitting can and has won ballgames this year. I think their pitching can be good and they can still win. And this year I think their bullpen overall is deeper. If their starters can go six they can still win.
DeleteAgree that the Giants hitting is better than it was in 2010, but when you look at the Reds pitching staff, well, they can shut down anybody. The Giants are going to have to pitch their butts off to beat them. Not saying it can't be done. I'm just not quite as confident as I was going into the 2010 playoffs when I felt like the Giants pitching could neutralize any offense.
Delete