Since there's no Game Report to post this morning, I thought we'd try a Q/A which have been popular in the past. Post any baseball related question in the comments and I'll do my best to answer. Readers are welcome to provide their own answers in addition to mine or comment on my answers. Giants, Farm System, Draft, Fantasy, MLB? Whatever is on your mind, fire away!
The Hardball Times(now part of Fangraphs). took a look at Tim Lincecum's struggles. Looks like they basically copy and pasted my theories. You can find Fangraphs and THT by clicking the link over on the left.
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I like what Scutaro is doing for the giants right now, but i'm afraid it's a case of short sample size, and that the giants will overpay for him in the offseason. What's your take?
ReplyDeleteI've liked Scutaro for a long time. Right now he's playing way above his career norm and that, obviously, can't be expected to continue forever. On the other hand, his career norm is pretty darn good so I would not mind seeing him in a Giants uniform next season. He is 37 yo so I would hope it's not for more than a 1 or at most 2 year deal.
DeleteOverpay? Look, predicting the future of baseball players is a tough business. All teams overpay and all teams find bargains. Sabean has done a good job of finding as many or more bargains as he has overpaid. The most important factor in the Giants talent acquisition is the collection of homegrown talent that forms the core of this team. I think we can now safely say that Sabes succcessfully added two more homegrown pieces to the core this year, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford.
Whoever plays 2B for the Giants next year is a 1-2 year placeholder for Joe Panik.
One more thought on Scooter. 9 swinging strikes since he joined the Giants. 9? THAT is pretty darn unbelieveable!
DeleteAgreed. Wow.
DeleteThank you for your reply. The next question is about the outfield. Next year i expect the giants to offer arbitration to Pence, so they'll have Pence and Blanco. They can either play Belt in Left, which will open 1B, or keep belt at 1B and have an outfield position open.
ReplyDeleteHistorically, it's cheaper to find the same production signing 1B than OF, but i'm not very familiar with next years FA. Do you think the Giants should go after an OF or 1B?
My personal opinion is Belt is a gold glove caliber first base men so, why move him. For Posey to rest ok. Other than that I'd say go after an outfielder. Giants are known now for OF free agent flier like Torres and now Blanco. May be they can strike gold again or Sabean comes through to another lopsided trade.
DeleteThe Giants already have several backup options for 1B so I don't see that it would make any sense to go out and acquire a 1B.
DeleteOptions for the OF range from re-signing Pagan to making a trade for David DeJesus to re-signing Xavier Nady. I see Blanco as more of a 4'th OF, so if they re-up both Pagan and Pence, they will still need a 3'rd starter.
Personally, I think Melky Cabrera is going to be the bargain of the offseason for somebody. (ducks and runs).
Well the Giants do have some $$$s available that would have gone to signing Melky. So an OF FA is an option. Would like some power out of LF and to keep Blanco for 4th OF and hot streaks.
DeleteKeep Pence and Pagan. They will most likely overpay, but until Brown, Pegs or Special K prove out, who else you gonna call? Nady is a longshot but maybe adds some bench power.
Until I know the name of every player who used steroids, greenies or bennies, I more than willing to let Melky come back.
DeleteI've been kind of thinking that the Giants should just move Belt to the OF right now and let him acclimate to that long-term. Part of me thinks that Sandoval will eventually end up at 1B, pushing Belt to the OF anyway. Another part thinks that Posey might end up there as well, though now I'm hoping for 3B when Pablo is moved to 1B.
DeleteIn any case, Posey is going to see significant time at 1B still in 2013, so Belt is going to the OF in those cases, as I am hoping that he's hitting consistently well enough that they must keep his bat in the lineup. So just move him there permanently so he can get comfortable there, I mean, he was an OF in high school and he handled the OF fine in 2011, had a plus defensive rating. Then we could get a cheap left-handed platoon 1B who hit RHP well enough (too bad Ishikawa took off), with Posey basically platooning with him at 1B. Ishikawa was a fine 7th place hitter and great defensive 1B to boot. And against RHP, he's a fine 6th place hitter, his batting line is right in line with the average 6th place hitter.
Not that I'm saying to give up anyone good for him, but someone like him in the free agent pool would be good.
Do you think Giants should change their draft mentality for hitters. I mean it's either light tower power, but can't hit for avg. or ALL glove no offense!
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure I agree with the premise here. Between Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Crawford, Brown and Panik, I think the Giants are doing OK with drafting hitters. I think Shankbone and I share a dream of them drafting more athletic 5 tool OF types, but the risk is high with those types even though the reward is also great.
DeleteI don't remember where Lewis Brinson ended up getting drafted but He's the type of player I would like to see the Giants try to get more of in the draft.
LOVE the signing of Gustavo Cabrera on the international front, but it's going to be a long development path for him.
Angel Villaona and RafRod whiffs (prove me wrong Rafael!) make people forget about the teams investment in international FAs. Excited for Cabrera. Hopefully he and Raf Rod can join top prospect lists soon, so we get some new scouting reports on them. and maybe someone like Galindo or Meija can join Hector Sanchez as smaller scale successes.
DeleteUnless you are losing a lot of games, the type of hitters you want (and are likely to reach the majors) tend to be only available in the first 10-15 picks of the draft. After that, it is like roulette trying to find a hitter who is not characterized by the two archetypes that you listed, power no avg vs. glove no hit. So it is not that the Giants preference is for these types of hitters, the unfortunate fact is that these are all you can regularly find beyond the first 10-15 picks in the draft.
DeleteAs we know, the Giants have not lost much under Sabean and when they did, they drafted pitchers for the most part, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Wheeler, with only one hitter Posey. Heck, even when we were winning we were drafting pitchers, with only the last couple of years that we picked up Brown and Panik, before going back to pitching with Stratton.
How long do you think Bochy can continue the closer-by-committee? Wilson will not be back in 2013 until probably mid-season, as TJS recoverers require at least a year after surgery, plus he will need rehab time pitching in the minors to get back into baseball shape.
ReplyDeleteI've been guessing that Casilla will be reinstated either in the last week of the season or for the playoffs - thinking that they would save his arm for the playoffs - but he's been pitching a lot, and early too, so I'm starting to think Bochy will continue this into the playoffs. Plus, I know Romo wants to be a closer and taking it away from him now might leave him unhappy, so perhaps Bochy might prefer to deal with that after the playoffs (assuming the Giants make it).
Boch sure took the closer by committee to an extreme that last game in Colorado, huh?
DeleteI really like how he has it set up now with Casilla pitching the high leverage situations in the 7'th or 8'th innings then mixing and matching his LOOGY's along with Mota and Romo for the last 3-6 outs. I hope he continues that into the playoffs. Boch and his bullpen wizardry may be on the cusp of finally making the sabers' bullpen dreams come true!
Unless the Giants starters change their stripes in the next three weeks and start going deep with allowing 3 runs or less, Bochy will need every ounce of bullpen shutdown. That means "closers" from the 6th inning on. So yeah OGC, I think it is a Democratic/socialist closer-by-committee that gets the Giants victory in November.
DeleteMay be heresy, but Wilson may not even be invited back at $12MM he is due. Big risk decision for the Giants this offseason.
Not heresy, many have espoused those thoughts too. I think most people expect Wilson to be non-tendered then signed to a low base, games reached bonused contract. I don't see him not doing that either. 2014 is the big year, depends on what he demands, but given the poor history of pitchers coming back from their second TJS (Wilson hinted at that in his last public interview on his recovery), I can see him getting a minor league deal with the Giants as he continued to rehab his arm.
DeleteDo the Giants resign Affledt? And if so, for how much?
ReplyDeleteI"ll say yes. 2 years/$10 M
DeleteHow much do you think it will take to sign Pence to a long-term contract, years and amount?
ReplyDeleteHe is still arbitration eligible for one year, so i hope the giants will just sign him for next year and wait to see how he does.
DeleteI'll say Pence will be looking for at least 5 years at $13-15 M. Not sure I would do that. It might be better to go 1 year then make a qulifying offer for a draft pick after next season. Trade him if a great deal comes along.
DeleteReally, you are willing to give Pagan 5 years at $12M each, but hesitate on giving Pence 5 years at $13-15M? Wow!
DeletePence has not only hit a lot better for his career, but is also a year younger. Plus, middle lineup guys are harder to find and get hold of, whereas leadoff types with OBP and SB are relatively easier to find. And I would be OK with Blanco leading off for us if Pagan proves expensive and a better option does not materialize. The average leadoff guy has not been that good at getting on-base the last two seasons, Blanco is a whiz in his career at getting on base compared to the average lead-off guy the past two seasons.
Not that I wouldn't be willing to trade him in a deal, depending on what we get, but I don't see how we don't sign him unless he's asking for the moon. He doesn't seem like that kind of guy, though, and I think he's looking for a place to stick around with (plus compete for the playoffs annually).
Our lineup just looks so good with him in it, even if we don't bat Blanco first, a lineup of Scutaro, Belt, Sandoval, Posey, Pence is actually pretty good. And if Crawford is coming around like Belt, he would be fine batting 6th. And even if not, presumably either our LF or CF should be fine 6/7 with Crawford batting 8th.
Go back and read what I said, OGC. I did not say I thought the Giants should sign Pagan to a 5 year/$60 M deal. I said I thought that's what he might get as a FA on the open market from some team.
DeleteI think there is no more than a 50/50 chance Pagan is back next year precisely because he may be too expensive. I do think it's a slam dunk to make him a qualifying 1 year offer to get the draft pick though.
BTW, I know you don't like Pagan, but he's averaged a 3.3 Fangraphs WAR over the last 4 years despite a big down year last year.
It is not that I do not like Pagan, it is just that I am not as enamored with him as you or others.
DeleteSorry I misinterpreted your statement.
Maybe so on his WAR, but there is nothing in his stats that says to me that he should get such a high contract. But, then again, the Angels gave Mathews Jr. That huge contract, so clearly it does happen. And the Dodgers are looking to buy the west. Do not mean that he is worth the money.
wRC+ for Pence last 4 years: 115, 111, 141, 105.
DeletewRC+ for Pagan last 4 years: 120, 113, 99, 112.
One outlier up year for Pence, one outlier down year for Pagan, otherwise essentially the same.
Pence average WAR the last 4 years: 3.5
Pagan average WAR the last 4 years: 3.3
Maybe 5 years is streching it a bit for Pagan, but somebody is going to pay him this offseason!
I would argue that you cannot count his 2009 120 wRC+ season because as we have seen this season, when he's hot, he's hot, and when he's not, he's not. And he barely played more than half a season that year.
DeleteStill, to your point, 115/111/141/105 is not THAT much different from 113/99/112. It is much closer than I would have thought looking at his stats.
However, when I dig into the numbers, I see that Pagan's stats benefited greatly from his ability to hit at home well when it is a pitcher's park. In the park adjustment that they make for him, that boosts his numbers up a lot more. He only hit .714 OPS on the road. Pence has a lifetime .807 on the road, though he benefited from hitting at home too and did get knocked down because both Houston and Philly are hitters parks.
Ah, things look a lot different if you account for their entire body of work. If you look at his OPS+, Pagan is 105 for his career, Pence is 118. For wRC+, Pagan is 106 for his career, Pence 117. I think that clearly states the difference I see when I compare the two players. For full season results, from 2008-2012, Pence's OPS+ is 116, while Pagan's over the past three (2010-2012) seasons is 108. Throwing in his partial in 2009 would push him to 111, which is still a good percentage lower than Pence, I guess at that level, yeah, I can see your point.
So, for me, it hinges on whether you believe on whether 2009 is a representative season for him. Given where he is right now in this season, it does appear representative by OPS+ but not really by wRC+. But overall, looking at the stats, I still don't get the love for him. I see now that he's probably going to get something in the range you foresee for him, but to me that is going to be an overpay, whereas I think Pence is worth the contract that people are estimating for him. Put on top of that, I think Brown will be ready by 2014 and that Blanco can be adequate leading off for us in 2013, the Giants don't need to get Pagan, but if we can get him for a reasonable price, I would love to have him back. Just not at a Rowand-range type of contract. 2-3 years, low teens per, works for me.
Especially since Melky is no longer in the picture, they can use the money they were using for him on Pagan for the next 2-3 years. And I'm perfectly OK with 3 years at $9M, push to $10 maybe, but not 5 years at $12M per.
DeleteI STILL think Melky is going to be the bargain of this upcoming offseason!
DeleteOGC,
DeleteCan't argue with the overall stats for Pence and Pagan. I'll just point out that the difference is all due to one positive outlier year for Pence and one negative outlier year for Pagan with Pence having a larger sample size.
Also, I've never said I thought Pagan would get the same contract as Pence. I think Pence could get something in the range of 5 yrs/$75 M while I think Pagan's ceiling is 5 yrs/$60 M. Pretty substantial difference there.
DeleteYes, I got that wrong about the contracts, sorry about that.
DeleteYeah, it's OK to disagree, just wanted to make my points. Also would point out that Pagan had a negative outlier but one out of three seasons is hard to say whether it is the outlier or the other two seasons.
How much do you think it will take to sign Pagan and keep him around as a bridge, years and amount?
ReplyDeletePagan's value is rising rapidly. Some team is going to give him a lot of money this offseason. I'm thinking 5 years at $12 M per is about what he will get from someone. Maybe that's overvaluing him, but the FA class is very thin and teams are flush with cash.
DeleteGood point on that. But the LAST time the Giants went 5 years $60 million for an aging outfielder coming off a career year....
DeleteAll things considered, if that's what it takes to sign Pagan, I think we have to let him walk.
The unknown, of course, is the Giants payroll. If we're up in th $150-$160 million range, that might change things.
FWIW, I think these crazy-big TV contracts have a decent chance to blow up. Everything is so leveraged. Sports seems to be where all the television advertising cash is heading. But this generation did not grow up on TV like us old codgers did. I can see the possibility of a future where local cable networks default on the super-contracts ten years down the road.
You can't quite compare a potential 5 year deal to Pagan with the disaster that Rowand was. Rowand hit for power in his career year and did it while with the Phillies. Pagan is doing it for the Giants so we know this ballpark won't be a hindrance to him. However, I could see the issue of giving 5 years to a 31 year old player whose main weapon is speed since that's usually one of the first things to go as players get older. There are risks of it not working out, but not in the same way as the Rowand contract.
DeleteAgreed. Didn't mean to draw a direct parallel to Rowand, other than the possibility of a large overpay based on a career year.
DeleteTo get more concrete, and what I think is fair to all: 3 years, $32 million, with a 4th year option and $4 million buyout.
I keep on seeing Pagan getting offered qualifying money and I just don't see it. If he hit like he does in his hot streaks all season long, then I can see that, but he's a career mid-700 OPS CF, which is OK but not elite. He's more like a Winn than a Rowand, in terms of contracts, I think.
DeleteAnd I'm hoping the Giants only go 3 years with him, max, I would really be surprised to see him get 5 years from anyone, though with the Dodgers paying like they got Monopoly money, that could be the team.
For comparison, Rollins got a 3 year, $33M contract plus 4th year vesting option at $11M. He's a little older (2 years) but he also has a longer track record of performance (11 full seasons as a full-time starter), Pagan is only completing his third full season, though last season was not really a full one, close to so I'll give that.
So for me, 3 years at $27M ($9M per season) plus option year is what I would go with, maybe going to $10M per if necessary to seal the deal.
I see Pagan as a Huff deal. 2/20MM with a buyout/third year of 2/10. I bet with the market some team will beat that offer, so the qualifying one year deal to secure the draft pick is a slam dunk. What holds Pagan back some is the lack of power and the track record, as well as age. But after Bourne and BJ Upton come off the board, he's a strong 3rd guy in the market, assuming Melky is on a one year prove out deal.
DeleteIf the Giants could get Pagan signed for 3 years/$36 M with some sort of option for a 4'th season, I'd go for it.
DeleteCloser for 2013 -who will it be?
ReplyDeleteCasilla?
Is Wilson a possibility?
Hembree?
Committee?
Free agency?
I can't see the Giants offering arbitration to Wilson. I would think Wilson would be looking for a 1 year deal to rebuild his value. The Giants would offer the best chance for that value to go up. I think a 1 year deal avoiding arbitration could be work for both sides. If Wilson leaves, I could see a competition between Romo and Casilla or just continue the committee as a bridge to Hembree who I don't think will be ready until mid-season at the earliest.
DeleteSay Wilson is not ready until Mid-season next year.
DeleteIf the Giants don't re-sign him, and another team doesn't pick him up, does he get paid?
If the Giants do not offer arbitration and he does not sign a contract, he does not get paid.
DeleteGoing to go ahead and apologize in advance for the long question..
ReplyDeleteDoc, I went to a SF/LA game at the very end of July 2010. Timmy was pitching, and the most memorable thing about that game was that from the first pitch until he was out of the ballgame, he was pitching out of a more traditional windup. Turns out, he was doing that because he was having control issues; here's a quote from Tim from a story on that game:
"Lately I've had a tougher timing issue out of my wind-up keeping myself over the mound and going toward home plate before my arm could get to the right spot," Lincecum said. "It's something I did before (in college) when I was dealing with a control issue. I figured I'd go back to it and it felt pretty comfortable considering I haven't thrown with it all year."
Now, I'm no pitching-mechanics expert, but I have to wonder why, after all his struggles this year, hasn't he tried to go back to that windup? (Especially since most of his problems have been his wildness (his inability to throw strikes AND wildness within the zone.)
What are your thoughts on this? Should he try to go back to a more traditional windup? It's obviously a SSS, but in that particular game vs LA, he threw 7 IP, and allowed only 2 runs on 7 hits (he K'd 9 and BB'd 2). It might be too late in the year to do something like that again, but you have to think that if his struggles continue into next year, he should consider some drastic changes...
Here's a video of that start: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10454557
I tend to believe Timmy is overthrowing to try to compensate for lack of strength and velocity. I believe the first thing he needs to go is get on a rational diet and conditioning program with the aim of playing at a strong 170-175 lbs. The mechanics will fall into place once he fixes his body.
DeleteOh my, that was fun watching Timmy throw fastballs for strikes. Memories, huh?
DeleteWhile he has thrown better in the second half, I don't think anyone feels Tim is throwing well. So, yeah, I think everything is on the table in the off-season. I have no idea how bad an idea it is to tweak things mid-season.
But ultimately, I don't really believe Tim has a problem that can be fixed with an adjusted delivery, or 20 extra lbs. (C'mon Pablo, give it over to Tim.) I hope I'm wrong, but really, I think everything stems from his efforts to maintain velocity. I think his additional wildness (Lincecum was always a little wild (effectively)) stems from his overthrowing. Harder he tries to throw, the wilder he's going to be.
Good point, and thanks for the answer! That's another thing that I've been wondering about this year; it can't be a coincidence that the one offseason he decides to lose weight (he was already thin!), is followed by the worst season of his career. Time for more double-doubles and chocolate shakes!
DeleteThere has to be a better way to gain some weight and maintain it than gorging at In-N-Out. Timmy needs to spend some of his $20 M salary on a professional sports nutritionist and strength coach.
DeleteAgreed on that nutritionist and strength coach.
DeleteNot sure about trying Zito's offseason coach, but definitely the above.
I totally agree with DrB, he's been advocating that for a long while now and when I first saw it, I wished I had said it first. Timmy needs to get into shape professionally, hopefully with someone who has worked with pitchers before guiding him, and he'll have a bounceback season.
DeleteThe only silver lining is that we might be able to sign him to a lower and shorter term deal after this set-back, to buy out some free agent years without going crazy in size, maybe 3 years at $25M per extension? I'm willing to bet on Timmy, but only if he agrees to seek professional help in getting into shape.
Maybe it's crazy to think Panda and Timmy should train together.
DeleteBA just release their Classification Minor League All-Star lists.
ReplyDeleteChris Heston was AA Pitcher of the Year
Clayton Blackburn was Low A Pitcher of the Year.
Congrats to Chris and Clayton!
DeleteWho won the high A Pitcher of the Year?
DeleteOh, and by the way, how does Heston compare with Surkamp?
Heston is kind of a RH Surkamp, but more of a groundball pitcher. I think Surkamp throws a tick harder and is LH, so that increases his value a lot. Both are pitchability pitchers when you get down to it though. Back of the rotation starer is a ceiling for both.
DeleteEdwin Escobar had a good year in low A what are your thoughts on him? I heard he throws in the mid to high 80s is this true? Is there any room for velocity growth?
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts for Adalberto Mejia?
I don't know what Escobar's velocity is. He's only 20 yo, so I would think there is room for growth. I would rate him in the second tier of Giants pitching prospects overall.
DeleteLove Mejia. Love his size love his numbers, age vs level. I think he's going to be a good one. Top tier pitching prospect but not #1.
Rank:
ReplyDeleteStraton
Agosta
Surkamp
Heston
Kickham
Fitzgerald
Crick
Blackburn
Escobar
Mejia
Off the top of my head: Crick, Stratton, Blackburn, Mejia, Agosta, Kickham, Escobar, Surkamp, Heston, Fitz.
DeleteHow's that?
Thanks! The high ranking of Mejia over agosta is pretty surprisng considering his early struggles.
DeleteBut look at Mejia's age vs level. He started out the season as an 18 yo who had not pitched above the DSL level. His early struggles were expected and the fact he overcame them to become a top line starter in the same season is actually a plus in my book.
DeleteBTW, my dividing line between top tier and second tier goes between Agosta and Kickham.
That is a very nice set of long arms (starters) to look at. The SJ rotation is going to be baaaaad next year. Agosta or Mejia or Escobar maybe on the bubble, I hope the Giants try to have Agosta start but there have been those whispers of bullpen arm.
DeleteThanks DrB for all your answers, love chatting about the Giants, reading chats.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the kind words and contributions to the comments, OGC.
DeleteHere is a minor league question... What position would you consider the Giants being well stocked with good prospects in their system? What position is a weakness? Position player or pitcher in Round 1 of the 2013 draft? Thans for your great work!
ReplyDeleteLG
OF is the best stocked. SS is the weakest(after seeing Panik play in person a couple of times, I think he's a 2B).
DeleteBPA in round 1 of the draft. I would love the Giants to draft a high ceiling SS, but I doubt someone like that will be available where they will be drafting.
There are a couple of CA HS guys coming on the scene - JP Crawford out of Lakewood and Chris Rivera out of El Dorado. Right now they are ranked late enough the Giants might have a shot at one of them. Obviously way too early, if showcase action goes well they can get kicked into high gear.
DeleteThe A's may have the best pick of the 2012 draft with Addison Russell. He is tearing it up.
Also on your question about Lewis Brinson, the Rangers snagged him at 29. With 5 picks in the top 100, plenty of money to spend, they were able to go after 5-tool bonus babies with huge boom/bust potential. Joey Gallo came on the scene and homered a bunch, peops got a bit quiet about the hype once he started K'ing all over the place though. Sure do like them 5-tool OFs and am very very happy with Gustavo Cabrera.
I'm happy with the Stratton pick, but I would not have complained at all if the Giants had taken Brinson at #24. I"m pretty sure MCC would have melted down, though.
DeleteAnd how can you mend a broken heart?
ReplyDeleteHow can you stop the rain from falling down?
How can you stop the sun from shining?
What makes the world go round?
How can you mend a this broken man?
How can a loser ever win?
Good Day, Sunshine.
DeleteGood Day, Sunshine.
Good Day, Sunshine....
Oh my!
DeleteFollow the yellow brick road!
DeleteFollow the yellow brick road!
Follow, follow, follow, follow the yellow brick road!
Since The Trade, the Doyers are...6-12? Ho ho. Since The Bust, the Gints are... 18-9? Ho ho. Ain't life grand?
ReplyDeleteHere is a question about them there lefties, specifically the RPs. What are 2 good stats to evaluate relief pitchers? I am glancing at sorted stats on ESPN and Lopez, Affeldt and our new KC lefty all have ERAs under 3.00, but that really doesn't tell much of a story. One problem I have looking at season stats for RPs is with the limited # of innings pitched 2-3 disasters can really skew the stats. Anyway, any insight on stat analysis of our pen, emphasis on lefties or in general?
I look at WHIP, K/9 and BAA with splits. I don't think ERA is as bad as it's made out to be, but it can be deceiving if the guy allows a lot of inherited runners to score.
DeleteI really like K/BB and K/9, for whereas the baseball gods can play havoc with hits and HRs, those stay pretty constant and therefore relevant. For closers, you want 2.4 K/BB or above (2.0 is the general benchmark for good pitchers). And, of course, you want high K/9, ideally over 9.
DeleteERA is generally good, but I would adjust things mentally if he has one really bad outing, because often that is because he's taking the bullet for the team and pitching longer than the manager normally would use him because some innings need to be eaten.
And, of course, they are especially good for fantasy baseball.
For LOOGIES, you have to realize that the stats are skewed by LHB results, but still look at those metrics, plus BAA with splits. WHIP is nice in general, but can be skewed by bad BABIP. I would look at career RHB results for how much you might want to let him face more RH hitters.
I've been thinking about a PQS for relievers, on and off, and maybe a way of that working is 1 for at least one out, 1 for one hit or less, 1 for no walks, 1 for at least one strikeout, and 1 for no homers. Plus automatic 0 PQS for no outs. I'll have to go play with that.
I should have included BB/9 in my reliever metrics.
DeleteWe can keep this one going as long as you all want, but I'll take time right here to thank everybody for the great questions and comments.
ReplyDeleteDo the giants offer Melky 13 million for a draft pick? What about Pagan?
ReplyDeletePagan is a no brainer. If they can't get him signed to a new contract prior to the opening of FA, they have to make the 1 year qualifying offer.
DeleteMelky? I really hope the Giants are open to re-signing him as I think he will be the bargain of the offseason. I seriously don't see them making a 1 year qualifying offer although I would not be against that.
No way for Melky because he would sign that in a heartbeat and the Giants know that. All the media agrees that the Giants ownership/management is not interested in keeping Melky at the moment, so that attitude would have to change for them to entertain the thought of signing him. He might be a bargain in terms of a ballplayer, but not in terms of PR. And that's especially so at $13M.
Delete