Aaron Hill and Paul Goldschmidt continued abuse Giants pitching, especially Tim Lincecum, as the D'Backs broke on top early and cruised to the win. Key Lines:
Giants Offense- Managed just 4 hits, 3 of them doubles by Scutaro(30), Posey(37) and Ryan Theriot(16). Xavier Nady got the other basehit.
Tim Lincecum- 4 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 4 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 5.15. The big blow was a 3 run dinger off the bat of Goldschmidt that hit the LF foul pole. The pitch he hit wasn't even in the strike zone. He kind of tomahawk chopped a pitch that was sailing up and in. It was hooking, but just managed to hit the foul pole for a HR. Not that Lincecum was pitching well, but as Kruk and Kuip would say, when you have ownage, things like that happen.
Bullpen- 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K's. Runzler came in and allowed 2 inherited runners to score then settled down and pitched a pretty good inning. Loux, Kontos, Hensley and Penny had a shutout inning each after that with Penny getting 2 K's.
The Dodgers lost to the Padres 2-1 so the NL West Champion Giants lead remains at 10 games. The Cards shut out Houston 4-0, so the Dodgers trail them in the race for the last Wild Card spot by 4.5 games with 8 to play. Not sure what has been more dramatic, the Giants end of season surge or the Dodgers collapse. I don't get the LA Times any more, but TJ Simers must be having a field day.
Matt Cain faces Wade Miley in game 2 of the series. Is it just me, or is Madison Bumgarner's turn getting skipped? I haven't seen any announcements. Is it just a positioning thing for the playoffs?
Decision on Melky and the post-season roster in the next 48 hours. I'm betting yes, but we'll see. I think it should be a baseball decision. On paper, he would make the team a lot more formidable, but you don't know how well he would hit in a small sample size after missing so many games. Of course, the Giants have to win the first series for it to even be an issue, right?
I read an interesting comment by Stan Kasten, a member of the Dodger's ownership group, commenting on how proud he is of his former team, the Nationals. He kind of went out of his way to say they built the team the "right way" through the farm system with selected additions through trades and FA signings. I'm guessing his philosophy of team building is polar opposite that of Magic Johnson. Could make for some interesting off-season discussions in the offices of Dodger Stadium this offseason, especially in light of how well adding a quarter of a billion dollars of payroll obligations worked out for them this year.
Eric Gagne has written a French language book detailing his use of HGH while he was with the Dodgers and how it impacted his health. He asserts in the book that 80% of his Dodger teammates were using PED's during his time there. I'm guessing the number has dropped some since MLB started testing, but probably not by as much as we'd all like to believe. All of this is part of why I have a hard time getting too worked up about the whole PED issue. Yes, I think they should be banned. Yes, I think there should be testing. No, I don't think records set are particularly tainted because almost everybody who was competing was getting the same advantage, however much it is.
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Timmy actually gave up 7 earned runs, the last two scoring off of Runzler. Bumgarner hasn't been skipped. He got the win the night the Giants clinched the division. It just seems like a while because the Giants had Petit start the game after the clincher to give the starters a break. Keep up the great work Dr. B.
ReplyDeleteThat's what I get for trying to write in the middle of the night.
DeleteLincecum is so washed up. He can only pitch good against mediocre batting teams. There was no need for him to pitch against Dbacks as we all knew the outcome. Very concerned about the Giants pitching, only reliable ones are Bumgarner (who has been struggling lately) and Cain. With Zito I really dont trust him in a playoff game and Vogelsong looks pretty lost in the mound right now. Am not bashing the Giants or anything but their second half turn around has to do a lot with the fact that they have been facing mediocre teams (SD, CHC, COL, LAD, PIT, HOU) Against teams like Cardinals, Nationals, Reds and even the Mets they have really struggled. It kind of reminds me the 2010 Reds team that beat up on teams under .500 but had a tough time with over .500, what happened (got swept in the first round). Not saying the Giants will be swept but it would not surprise me.
ReplyDeleteI would not say LIncecum is washed up. I think he has some serious issues to work on in the offseason, mostly having to do with diet and conditioning. Before last night's game, I think he did have the best ERA of the starters over the last 10 starts or so.
DeletePlayoffs are a crapshoot. You have to be a good team to get there, but once in, almost anything can happen.
Am not bashing the Giants? Hate to see it when you are bashing. (of course, we'll never know because you are anonymous)
DeleteOne bad start after a half season of good ones overall and a career of greatness, let alone goodness, and Lincecum is washed up. It is this crap that drives me away from most Giants watering holes. And in the how soon do they forget department, Vogie just had a great start. I'm willing to accept Lincecum's comment that he didn't adjust well to the two extra days of rest, as he was wild like he was too strong and out of control. I'll worry more about him if his next start is like this one.
But yeah, of course we should be concerned about the Giants pitching, there has been enough question marks, but you know what, so do most other teams, they have their question marks as well. Worry is all relative.
I'm willing to give the Giants a pass on this series, they probably have been majorly hungover after Saturday, and a bit out of sync.
You point out that the Giants took on a lot of poor teams (FYI, San Diego has one of the best records for the past 3 months, so no, they are not mediocre; also, most people would not consider LAD as mediocre before the Giants beat them down). Well, so has the other "good" teams. Teams with over .500 records against teams over .500: Nats (+6), Braves (+4), Reds (+5), Giants (+1). That might seem like a lot to you, but it is the difference between an 87 win team and a 82 win team: in the playoffs, not a heck of a lot.
About the 2010 Reds, they faced the Phillies in that first round, Halladay no-hit them in the first game, their bullpen failed them in the second game (as well as their defense, 5 unearned runs), and Hamels 5-hit shutout them in the third. What that shows is that when you have dominant starting pitching, you can shut down any offense. And while the Reds did get good starting pitching, the Phillies got better ones.
For all the worries about the Giants staff, we are in in pretty good shape right now. Cain has a 3.21 ERA in the second half, Bumgarner 3.25, Lincecum 3.67. Zito and Vogelsong has not been so great (4.40 and 5.56 respectively), but they each have two more starts to show where they are, particularly Vogelsong, who had a 5 PQS DOM start in his last start. If he can close out with two more, he's probably getting the nod for the 4th starter role, pushing Zito to the bullpen, and then I would put our starting rotation against any other.
Plus, the Giants have a good mix of hitters that will drive the other pitchers crazy. Scutaro and Posey are such disciplined hitters that are great at making contact that pitchers have to focus real hard to spot their pitches on the fringes, then they are followed by Sandoval and Pence, two undisciplined hitters who will take those fringe pitches and knock them around for extra-base hits. Add in supporting offense from Pagan, Belt, Crawford, and you got a pretty good offense.
Re: DrB's comment about anything can happen: it can and does, but if you build a rotation of pitchers that can throw a lot of dominant (high PQS, that is, a large percentage of quality starts) starts regularly, your team can control the other team a whole lot better in terms of things happening and winning playoff series. That is how the Giants won in 2010, their pitching got them to the finish line. And it will have to do it again for us, though with offensive support.
DeleteIt hasn't been easy for Timmy this season, but he has battled along. Calling him washed up is a joke. He needs to find a different way to prepare physically as well as mentally though. On the physical side he needs to find that ideal weight and reinforce it with a professional trainer. On the mental side, he needs to adjust to the league adjusting to him. His change/split/whatever the pitch he throws in the dirt that used to make hitters look stupid... gets stared at now. He has a big problem getting that final strike, runs up his pitch counts, etc. But washed up? Hells naw. Next year will be prove it time before the end of the contract, and if he plays well in the postseason the Gints might want to dangle one of those 2 year extension deal-i-o's he was talking about feeling comfortable with.
DeleteOGC - I agree that it takes a mix of hitters, you need your patient guys along with your hackers, to get a nice balance. The Giants are no juggernaut, but they have good hitters who field their positions very well. I expect Pence and Panda to step up, and I expect Belt and Crawford to let their defense and high B-ball IQ shine. Mainly Buster Posey will continue his methods. Like we said all year, this is a good ballclub.
As I've been saying since Tim's 6th or 7th start, he is no longer an elite pitcher. (I have to hurt my arm patting myself on the back on this one, because I believe the balance of this season has borne that out.)
DeleteHowever, he can still be a very good pitcher.
BUT, I'm not sure he can do that. He needs to think. He needs to be realistic. He needs to pitch within his abilities. I don't see Lincecum as a guy who is able to do that. Tim is supremely confident. He did not want the Cain-type extension. He wanted Free Agency. The approach he needs to take requires him to be realistic and a little humble. Don't see it happening.
Right now, FWIW, in the playoffs, I like a 3-man rotation with Vogelson as #3. Tim is the emergency guy if Bumgarner folds. Zito is the emergency guy if Cain or Vogey folds. Make it so!
Lincecum as the fourth starting pitcher? With Vogelsong as #3? Madness.
DeleteLincecum had been the best starter in the second half until his last start. He has also had a month full of dominating starts until that last start. Meanwhile, Vogelsong has been lost for a long time too, until figuring it out in his last start. Tim might not be Timmy Elite, but he's been good since the ASG.
I used to think that Timmy was supremely confident before. He has been about the money too, confidently holding out for $1M when the Indians offered him $400K-ish, holding out for that extra $200K when negotiating the draft bonus (slot was $200K less), asking for that large salary in his first arbitration.
But his comments this season (plus his issues with not handling adrenaline well in first games) I interpret to mean that he has hit his mental threshold where his mental affects his physical and he can't control it right now. He has made progress in the second half, but he's not elite, to Kelly's point.
I think his tough first half had more to do with having signed the largest per season contract for a RHP and his trying to pitch to that lofty achievement. I think it is telling that he has openly talked about the pressures of a huge contract, preferring shorter deals. I think that Shankbone is right that the Giants will offer him that 2-year dealio, but I think they will do it even if he don't have a great playoff performance. And I think he will sign it.
Ultimately, I think he will prefer comfort level over money. Once you got $10-20M in the bank account, plus the status of the highest paid RHP in history, I don't think he will push to get every dollar that he can get. His comments show that he is self-aware enough to realize that the big contract could be a big anchor (and perhaps it is Zito, either by example or perhaps they have even discussed it, who got him to realize that). Then he should be aware enough that if he stayed in SF, the fans will not put an additional level of burden on him to be the savior, unlike if he signed with another team for 10 years, $250M. And he's aware enough that if he performs poorly, the fans will turn on him (much as so many Giants fans have turned on him this season), even in SF, and thus if he went anywhere else, it would be that much worse. So I think 2 years, probably in the $25M per season range, a nice bumpup from before, and I think that is the highest salary, period, would keep him around.
I used to think that he wanted that big honking mega-contract. Now I think free agency is the last thing on his mind. I think he's self-aware enough of the pressures and the downsides of that contract. I think he's aware of the downside from the fan perspective, where if he's already been dropped by Giants fans after so many great seasons for them, record breaking seasons, really, then what would happen if he moved on as a free agent and not perform well, much like Zito. At least here, there will always be a base group of fans that will always appreciate all that he has done for us in the past and still root for him in the future.
Extend Timmy for 2 x $50 mil???
DeleteNot a chance in my book.
He's not earning the 2 x $40 mil right now. I don't see the merit on paying him elite money when he has been unable to return to elite status all year. And, c'mon, he's just not going to return there. (Yes, he's done MUCH better in the the 2nd half. But look at what we're comparing it to.)
Doc can talk weight, conditioning and mechanics all he wants. Ultimately, Tim is not getting back the 2-3 MPH on his fastball that he used to have. He can try to throw as hard as he likes. But, we've all seen what that leads to: wildness.
Lets not be silly and extend him now for a couple of years, and then be happy because it's not a Mega-length contract. Tim has an ERA over 5.00. Let's see how he does next year. (Personally, I think REGARDLESS of what he does next year, he's not worth a huge deal. Not even a Matt Cain deal. He's shown that he can slide into ineffectiveness too easily.)
In 2010, didn't our starters have an impressive streak of holding opposing teams under X runs per game (don't remember if it was 2 or 3), as we charged towards the finish line?
ReplyDeleteThat seems to be not how we are doing it this time - we have been scoring 4 or 5 runs a game, but not holding teams consistently to 2 or 3.
Yeah, it was like 20+ straight games, 3 runs or less, longer if you go to 4 runs or less.
DeleteYeah, that is not how we are doing it this time, but our offense has been super for a long while: 5.24 runs scored per game since the day Melky was suspended to the clinching game.
But the pitching was good too. In those 34 games, the starters held the opposition to 3 runs or less in 18 of them (over half their starts, very good) plus another 4 games to 4 runs. And in their last 10 games leading to the clinch, they held the opponent to 3 runs or less in 8 of those 10 games, plus one to 4 runs, so they ended with a great flourish, to your point, you were just missing them.
Melky decision:
ReplyDeleteMelky is available: First it would be the NLCS, only if the NLDS goes 5 games. Otherwise it is the WS only. This is based upon 50 total games suspended and that you can't activate a player onto the roster once the roster is set for a playoff series. Also the Giants must activate him onto the 40-man even if they want him or not (someone has to be dropped). Then he can only be not activated to the 25-man, per union rules, for baseball reasons e.g. being out of playing shape. He can't just be released. (note I believe this is correct but I am not a baseball PED-release specialist)
So even if the Giants want to be rid of Melky it is still a politically sensitive process that involves a 40 man roster spot. They can't just dump him.
Given that the Giants can't just slam the door neatly and say goodbye, I say why not have Melky get ready if the Giants get that far in the playoffs. He could be useful, hell he was the team's first half MVP(PED category). Maybe Blanco/Nady goes really cold/gets hurt. Maybe they actually need Melky. Maybe he can still perform while not on PEDs.
Will/could the clubhouse team vibe be upset? Yes, could happen. But clubhouse harmony does not equal a WS victory, on field performance does.
1. So get Melky ready now. Giants PR spin - "We want to keep all our options open to win the WS, Melky will be a baseball decision at the time he is able to be reinstated".
2. See if the Giants get to the NLCS or WS and actually need Melky. Make it a baseball decision.
3. Deal with releasing him or making an offer after the year is over.
Only caveat, Giants need to stay in the good graces of baseball's ownership regarding the A's move to San Jose. So maybe they don't go all Melky, release him and claim the high moral ground.
This PED stuff is really screwed up!
Ulp! Looks like the Giants are taking the high moral ground using "baseball related reasons" to not bring Melky back. And I assume this means not back forever. Okay it's done. Hope this works out.
DeleteYeah, I'm kind of glad the Giants are taking this route. It would be a mess in the playoffs of the Giants had the option of 2nd-guessing into Melky. Have to go with who is available and ready.
DeleteI other than the idea of a bonus wild-card in your back pocket, I can't see much advantage of leaving the option of a Melky return.
The real deal-breaker, I think, is how the Giants seemed to react to his suspension. Almost no support. The way Melky ducked out. That really sounds like the end.
As a strategist, for next year, it's too bad. Can't really make a qualifying offer. He won't get that much money on the open market for 2 years right now. So, no draft pick. So, his value is gone. Oh well.
Was out at AT&T last night. Wow, just flat.
ReplyDeleteWe had a couple of nice (not spectacular) defensive plays by Pagan, Pence & Pablo. But, wow, Giants were really there.
Saw something I've never seen:
Pablo fouled two straight pitches back to the same fan. Same guy, same location. Some people go all their lives without getting a foul ball, this guy gets two straight. Funny, huh?
Off Topic : WBC QUALIFICATION
ReplyDeleteAs you may know the final of the World Baseball tournament will be held in San Francisco on 17 to 19 March 2013.
Unfortunately, French team won't be there.
France had the weakest roster of the qualification round in Florida and it was clear from the beginning that the French team won't be a factor in this tournament. The team comprised young players from French teams and some former affiliated players such as Joris Bert (ex-Dodgers) or Frederic Hanvi (ex-twins) to name some and a new one, Andy Paz, who is a player in the A's organization. I hope that someday a French player will be draft by the Giants which is possible as MLB association is ready to help European countries to develop baseball here. For those who are interested Netherlands, Italy are where baseball is the more developed in Europe.
Nevertheless that was a good experience and for your information, Spain won against Israel in the final (those teams were favorites as they comprised Cuban, Dominican or American professional born players like Engel Beltre, Adrian Nieto, Yuneski Sanchez, Shawn Green, Gabe Kapler and affiliated players of Jewish descent for Israel (like Justin Schumer for Israel, our San Jose pitcher, who won a game against Spain in the first round).
In the other group Canada won against Germany in final.
Qualification tournament will continue and in November Ricky Oropesa should be part of the Filipino team with former Giants player Geno Espinelli.
GIP
Bruce Bochy has a french last name and was born in France, although his father was over there as an American serviceman so Ol' Melonhead is a natural born citizen of the USA.
DeleteI'll just add that the WBC games are a pleasure to watch. I am amazed at how different the styles of play are, especially the Asian teams who just put on a clinic of how to play classic "smallball".
DeleteI feel bad for Geno Espinelli sometimes. He was set up to go to the Olympics but got called up to the Giants (and I'm sure he prefers that experience) and ended up being replaced by Nate Schierholtz on the Olympic team. Still, the Olympics is a unique experience too, too bad it had to be one or the other.
Delete