The Giants offense erupted for 6 runs in the second inning behind two run homers from Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence. Barry Zito pitched a Quality Start and the Giants cruised to the win. Key Lines:
Angel Pagan- 2 for 4, SB(29). BA= .291. Pagan is within striking distance of his 3'rd consecutive 30 steal season.
Marco Scutaro- 1 for 4, HR(7). BA= .305. Scooter can flash some power every once in awhile.
Buster Posey- 2 for 4. BA= .333. Buster takes the lead in the Batting Title race!
Hunter Pence- 1 for 4, HR(22). BA= .255. Pence is hitting just .188 over his last 10 games. Should the Giants try to sign him long term? Offer arbitration that will likely result in a $15 M salary? Trade him in the offseason? Non-tender him and just let him go? Sabes has his work cut out for him this offseason.
Brandon Belt- 2 for 4. BA= .277. Belt is hitting .357 over his last 10 games with an 8 for 14 over his last 5.
Hector Sanchez- 2 for 4, 2B, HR(3). BA= .273. The Hector is the new whipping boy over at MCC now that Grant can't kick Crawford around anymore. Take THAT, haters! Yeah, I know. There is only one stat that matters. ERA, RBI's don't count. Here's what does count: If you check out the Giants W-L record in games Hector has started at catcher and consider the pitchers he's catching, I'm pretty sure they are not losing games because he is in the lineup. And hey, look at that! The Giants figured out how to get Hector, Buster and Belt in the lineup in the same game!
Barry Zito- 6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 4.19. Another QS for the Z man. Who is the #3 starter in the postseason?
Bullpen- 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K's. That's a nice 7'th, 8'th, 9'th progression of relievers there with Kontos, Casilla and Romo. I'm pretty sure Kontos is audtioning for a post-season roster spot. Romo had another dominant non-save 9'th. Giants have been winning by such big margins lately he has not had a lot of Save opportunities.
The Giants maintain at least a 10 game lead in the NL West having already clinched the championship. Now it's just seeing how many wins they'll end up with. Today was #91. In the race for the second Wild Card berth, the Cards were idle while the BrewCrew lost. The Dodgers are leading the Pesky Padres 1-0 in the 5'th inning of their game which could bring them to 2.5 games behind the Cards. Hmm.....Giants might need to open a can of whup-ass on the Dodgers in that last series to make sure they can't come back to haunt them in the playoffs. Now THAT would be sweet!
The Giants now head south for the final 6 games of the season starting with 3 in San Diego. Ryan Vogelsong takes the mound facing lefty Andrew Werner in the first game of the series tomorrow night.
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Pence? No question, sign him up to a long term deal.
ReplyDeleteStriking distance? I think it would be an upset if he doesn't do it.
Go Buster!
Well, Hector has not hit really well since his DL, but he's starting to get his bat back. Eh, he's only 22 YO and never a top prospect, I don't know what people expect from him. But he's been great at what he's suppose to be, backup catcher with some pop and bat control.
hector not a top prospect?
Deletegood enough to allow the giants to trade josephs
please rethink your comment
Right, ogc: No question but that the Giants should sign Pence to a long-term deal. Pence is hitting well enough as a Giant to put him at an RBI rate that extrapolates to over 100 a year, and helps explain why Posey, hitting fourth, gets so many pitches over the plate when Pence hits fifth. His history as a hitter suggests that his uneven hitting this year is anomalous, and such problems as he's had at bat in 2012 can only help make it relatively cheaper to sign him long-term, by weakening his leverage in potential arbitration.
DeleteAlso seems to me that bacci's response to ogc is a non sequitur: I take it that "a top prospect" would be a primary catcher, not a backup, an offensively abler Whiteside or Stewart. The Giants could feel free to trade Joseph (not "Josephs") because they have a regular, irreplaceable catcher, Posey, and a backup catcher (H. Sanchez) who, just as ogc specifies, has "been great at what he's supposed to be, backup catcher with some pop and bat control." If the Giants envisioned Sanchez in a primary role, one would think they would have been likely to leave him in AAA so that he could play every day-that has been their explicit practice with top prospects. That said, I agree that Sanchez has outperformed expectations. The anti-Sanchez blather on another website may have less to do with Sanchez than with the obligatory Belt-olatry that classifies playing anyone else and leaving Belt on the bench unthinkable or wacky or darkly perverse.
Well, Hector is a backup catcher for this team, but IMO, he's good enough to be starting right now on a lot of teams and will almost certainly develop into a first string quality backstop before his career is done.
DeleteHe may not have been RATED as a top quality prospect, but there have been indications of him being a significant sleeper and underrated all along.
Kind of ironic that what got the MCC folks excited about Hector a few years back when he was still in DSL and AZL was his high walk rates.
DeleteI feeel a liitle different about Pence...Don't get me wrong, despite his low average I like the guy and what he brings to the Giants and think he will be better next year......BUT......I would much rather sign him for the one year arbitration just in case...
DeleteIt's mainly becasue of the bigger picture...I want PAGAN signed for 2-3 years and it's obvious the Giants need a LF..It could be that person---either a FA or possible a trade that gets or has a long term contract....And then maybe you have BROWN by 2014..SO, kinda iffy...And yes, I actually think that, no matter the outcome of the season, the Giants will explore the benefits of trading LINCECUM who i don't think will be signable (if he returns to form) long term sftert the 2013 season......Maybe they get a ML OFer with a contract, which might make a long-term Pence deal a problem...But perhaps they get at least a top OF prospect which would go nicely with a long term Pence deal...We'll see...
As for HECTOR...who cares what they say over at McC...The kid is an imprtant part of this team at 22 years old...His bat is back and his defense/game calling is improving..what more can you ask?...And it seems to me that I remember reading over the summer that Sanchez was in demand on the trade market...I expect that to continue in the Off-season...GMs know what they need.......All that being said, I do think the Giants best all around starting lineup for the POS (especially including defense) is Posey at C, Belt at 1B with Sanchez on the bench...no matter who the pitcher is
SteveVA
Yeah, I don't think signing Pence long term is quite a slam dunk. If you do both Pence and Pagan, it really boxes them in for the future. Of the two, I think Pagan is most likely to provide more production/cost.
DeleteMy two cents on Hector, yet again... He is young. Very young. Making him a whipping boy is definitely being a snark instead of a fan. We have no idea where the walks will go, whether he will be a hacker in the majors. I have defended Hector over at MCC, but I get tired of doing it. He is a great backup catcher. So soon we forget that we had no idea what Posey would be able to do this year coming back from injury. I love the swing, he barrels up balls. To be critical, he does stab at the ball when catching, he needs to refine that aspect of his game. But he is tough, motivated and a great YOUNG add to the team. Clamoring for Whiteside or Stewart as the alternative didn't make much sense to me. The Giants made their evaluation, and went with it. Its proved to be successful.
DeleteThat said, Buster Posey needs to be the starting catcher every game of the playoffs, and I am pretty sure he will be.
Playoffs can be demanding and exhausting. If it turns out Buster needs a breather for his legs, I am very comfortable with Sanchez taking a game. Also, I don't care what stats Grant has, I watch games and Zito is clearly much more comfortable pitching to Sanchez, so if Zito makes a start and Sanchez catches it, I'm fine with it.
DeleteI was talking regarding the time when Hector was made the backup catcher, and really, his whole time in the minors. So nothing to re-think. He was never on the radar of any of the national prospect experts, he was only known to Giants prospecthounds, of which I count myself. I saw his walks, but the more important point to me was his ability to avoid the strikeout, in other words, his contact rate, which by itself was pretty good, but when you consider that he was young for the league too, I thought it was excellent.
DeleteHowever, to your point, Bacci, he has shown a lot this season in the majors, enough that Josephs was traded away, perhaps, though I wonder if having having Susac was also part of that equation, as well as how well Posey was doing when all the fear pre-season was whether he'll do OK, let alone excel. I think all of that went into the decision to trade Joseph, including that Sanchez has done well so far defensively, as well as offensively, which was his main negative coming up the system.
My point, really, is that I don't think it was realistic to think of Sanchez as an eventual starter and that he got hyped beyond realistic expectations. He showed a nice bat in the minors, enough that he should be considered potentially a starter, but with the question marks on his defense, to think that far ahead would be putting the cart in front of the horse.
That said, I'm really encouraged by what he has done this season both offensively and defensively. He's only 22 and we got Posey, so we have the luxury of spoon-feeding him in the majors and seeing if he develops more (some hit the wall and never progress). Most catchers take a while to get good defensively for the majors, then take even more time to hit well enough (I'm thinking CStew). So he's ahead of the game with his nice bat already and his switch-hitting makes him valuable as a pinch-hitter as necessary. Oddly, he has actually hit RHP better than LHP, even though he's a natural righty, though I've heard that SH learns to hit left-handed sooner because of all the extra ABs they get batting. And he hits adequately for a backup, for now, he will have to get better to be a starter, but at 22, he still has plenty of time to do that, I think, as his age catches up with the league, I think his hitting will pick up as well.
I was one of the ones clamoring for CStew, so I want to explain my position regarding Shankbone's point.
DeleteCStew hits LHP very well for a catcher, heck, good for any position. I thought he would be a perfect "platoon" partner to go with Posey/Belt at first in 2012, where we sit Belt against LHP and start Posey at 1B and CStew at C. I figured if Belt struggles again, no problem, but if he's hitting, he fielded LF fine last season, plus played OF previously, so it is not like putting him somewhere he hasn't played before, and I didn't view out OF for 2012 to be lock down starters for every game.
On top of that Stewart is a GREAT defensive catcher. GREAT. The Fielding Bible had him at 12 Defensive Runs Saved last season, despite playing roughly a third of the innings that starting catcher did, meaning he was among the leaders overall despite playing part time. And while he hasn't been as great this season, he still has 4 DRS despite playing about a third starter time, meaning if he were a starter, his defensive is good enough to add 1-2 WINS to your team.
Meanwhile, I really liked what Hanchez showed last season in the majors. I preferred to keep him in AAA and let him continue to develop because, while I was pretty confident that Posey would reclaim his starting position, you just don't really know until it happens. If anything should happen to Posey, I figured that CStew and Hanchez would make a good tandem platoon in Posey's place should the worse scenario happen.
Lastly, frankly, I didn't think that another team would give up that much for CStew, so I felt that trading him would not yield equivalent value in return.
But when we got Kontos in exchange for CStew, I figured the Giants thought that Hanchez's bat was developed enough, so though disappointed to lose CStew, I was OK with picking up someone who looked like he could be a decent reliever, based on how well he did in AAA in 2011. I thought that CStew might develop further as a hitter and maybe become a starter at some point, for as while Hanchez showed a good bat in the low minors, CStew had showed a good bat all through the minors and into the majors, in terms of taking a lot of walks while also keeping his strikeout down (and contact rate up). Still, some never make that final step, so I was OK with that trade.
Plus, Kontos was really good at both striking out a lot as well as not walking that many, in the minors, and he has kept it up in the majors. And Posey and Hanchez have worked out well too. So now I'm really happy about the trade.
The Yankees apparently appreciate really good defensive catchers. They had Jose Molina for years, and he also had great defensive numbers despite playing part-time, just like CStew. But I still think CStew could eventually hit, I envisioned maybe a career like Molina where he came into his own in his early 30's. But with Hanchez as backup, and Susac, Joseph, and Williams in the minors, sometimes you just need to trade from strength.
I wasn't exactly clamoring for CStew, but I did think Hector could use a bit more salt in AAA or even AA before being relied on to be the backup catcher at MLB. My thinking was that the Giants could get along with CStew and have Hector available as a midseason callup if CStew was doing the Mendoza at the plate.
DeleteI've admitted I was wrong about that already. While Hector was pretty raw and has gotten his seasoning at the MLB level, he has been more than adequate as a backup and has come up big, if not huge, time after time.
At this point, I think Bochy has earned the right to make these kinds of on-field decisions. I don't know how much Sanchez is going to play in the postseason, but if Bochy feels a lineup with him starting at catcher gives the Giants the best chance to win either that game or the series, I'm more an OK with it.
I'd note that despite the drizzle of sneers on the very same other website that knocks HSanchez, Fangraphs has a worthwhile article (Eno Sarris, Sept 27) about the sabermetric savviness of the Giants' front office.
ReplyDeleteooh, I hadn't seen that one. I will definitely check it out. I have maintained for a long time that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the Giants front office has been ahead of the sabermetric game for a long time, especially in defensive metrics but they obviously know things about pitching that not everyone else knows too.
DeleteGreat article. It even got a rise out of Grant Brisbee! Please check it out, everyone. Fangraphs is linked over on the left side of this site. Thanks to Campanari for pointing it out.
DeleteIt seems that it's not about further refinement of your numbers.
DeleteIt seems to be about looking at other areas, other aspects to find your players. Be a contrarian, - a strategy, which long before moneyball, has proven to be very rewarding to its practitioners in life in general. That no responsible GM would place his/her team's fate on some high potential, but injury prone players, would be one example of looking beyond the popular numbers.
And signing someone cheap hoping for a rebound, for another example, is not 'downside free.' The downside maybe 1) a roster spot is taken and when it doesn't work, so goes the team's chance of winning. That's the downside for a real world GM who is under pressure to win, as opposed to welfare GMs who are also part owners who are under no pressure to win nor to answer to their fans. My god, it's for adults, or 2) takes away a chance to devlop a young player, especially when you are not in a year where you are not expected to compete.
Yeah, thanks for pointing it out!
DeleteIt's too bad if people pick on Hector because of Belt.
ReplyDeleteI like all our kids to do well.
Who is our #3 starter?
ReplyDeleteI am hoping Timmy does well in his next starter. Bochy seems to be focusing on that one. A strong showing will go a long way towards strengthening our bid to go deep.
I think Timmy needs to be the #3 starter. It doesn't seem to matter where he's pitching; he still has a chance to get lit up or pitch a gem. I see him as sort of a wild card (ie Jonathan Sanchez) where if he can command his fastball, he can dominate.
DeleteWatch the 2010 playoffs to see what it means for Timmy to pitch a gem.
DeleteHe is not the same pitcher.
Give me Vogelsong for #3. I have a lot more trust for the guy right now.
Every couple of years McC identifies a player that demonstrates their level of sabermetric knowledge. A couple of years ago it was Fred Lewis (UZR and OBP), anyone who argued that Lewis was anything less than a very good major league player was instantly ridiculed. Now Hector is the indicator of catcher defensive metrics knowledge.
ReplyDeleteYou really should view the level of hyperbole and hysteria at McC as a symptom of the uncertainty they feel over what, for them, is new knowledge. Anyone who has taught young adults knows when you give them a hammer, suddenly everything is a nail. It will take them a couple of years to learn how to intelligently disagree about the nuances of catcher defense.
And to be fair, it's not that Hector doesn't deserve some level criticism, he needs work, but he's got all the tools to be a fine defensive catcher, which, really, you could say about Posey right now too. They're much closer to each other, defensively, than either is to Yadier Molina.
That is a fair analysis.
DeleteAnd they are probably both closer to Yadier than most people think. As long as Catchers are graded on SB/CS ratios, and as long as most of the Giants pitchers do poorly at keeping runners close, Giant's catchers will be sown in a harsh light, whether by casual fans, those that watch basic stats, or those that are looking at more advanced sabermetric stats (which are still based on CS%). This is one of the things harshing on Posey's WAR, and makes him look weaker in comparison with Braun in the MVP by WAR debate (who i think is benefiting from poorer RF replacement level defense around the league and who's defensive numbers this year don't match his reputation as a bit of a hack out there).
DeleteRE: McC most of the anti-Sanchez stuff is about ways that Bochy "will" use him in the future, whether Boch does so or not. Freakouts over Sanchez playing first or over Sanchez playing too much in the play offs. He's a good backup and young so we can hope for much more.
And some of that is because Posey is coming back from a major injury and can't (or shouldn't) start 140 games behind the dish. So Hector catches Zito. So Hector catches Timmy. ZOMG PERSONAL CATCHER, WHAT IS BOCH DOING! Simple, he's giving Posey a break (but he's still started over 100 games at catcher and played in more games overall than Molina).
Personally, I think Posey starts every game in the playoffs at catcher. Unless Nady or Blanco nose dive into a hackable slump, and then Sanchez will start, so that the slumping Nady or Blanco can be removed in favor the young catcher.
Give 'em a hammer.
DeleteReally nice, succinct observation about human beings and the use/misuse of a shiny, new tool.
I don't really go to MCC because, while I am pretty immediate and reactionary when it comes to the Giants, the MCC posters outshine my talents by a good margin. Even by MCC measure of hysteria, criticism of Sanchez and Bochy's use of him is ludicrous.
Nice analysis! I was one of the ones arguing against Lewis, then Bowker, but of course, they were "right". I was also one of the ones arguing for Posey over Smoak (he had this whole post about what a big mistake that was), but again, I was "wrong."
DeleteOnly, I think you are being kind saying that they will learn. I asked them to thank Sabean for getting us back to the World Series two years ago, and they refused to say one kind word about Sabean. Here it is, two years later, and they still think that they know what is best for the Giants.
That's why I don't go there much, I want to learn stuff about the Giants, but 99% of their comments are humor related, and I have nothing against that, I loved that aspect of it when I was a regular there and contributed, but now 99% of them are not that good.
Plus, they like to gang up on people who disagree with the herd, and I found myself more and more to be spending my time repeating myself over and over again, from 2007 to 2010, I had to explain that pitching was the future, no, we don't want to trade Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Posey, yes, Sabean has a plan and it is going to be great in a few years when the players develop and mature, and I told them that the Giants were going to be the team of the 2010's with this core set of players and a World Series should be in our grasp at some point.
I expect Posey to start every game too, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez gets a start because of matchup, say, there is a tough LHP starter, or because Bochy thinks that Sanchez is better than the LF alternative and move Belt to LF. I think the Giants are pretty attuned to when Belt and Crawford got their hitting stroke down, and will sit them down when they feel they have a better chance of winning with that player instead.
And I don't expect MCC to change. They have been doing this since it first began. Only, in the beginning, the ones like me outnumbered the masses that sways with the latest winds. I love Winn! I hate Winn! I love Winn! He's a good vet! He's useless, boot him out!
And they are always "right", which I can accept, because, well, I usually think I'm right too, but after all these years of thinking that they are right and Sabean is wrong, wrong, wrong, yet here we are, NL West Division Champs 2 of 3 years, one World Series championship, great rotation, now great lineup (oh, Sabean don't know players! OK, Sabean don't know position players, he's OK with pitching! OK, well, he's just wrong, because he doesn't ever do what I say he should do), looks like we should have a good shot this year as well, it is like that definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over again, even though you were wrong each time, yet MCC continues to do stick their finger into the light socket, and get Smoaked.
Kennv,
DeleteGoing ballistic about what they think Sabes or Bochy might do the future is a longstanding MCC specialty. It's like "hey, I think Bochy is planning to play Belt in LF during the playoffs! OMG! Look at this GIF, will you? I mean, Belt misses that ball EVERY TIME!! We can't have that! Fire Bochy!" LOL!
Every time I think of Sanchez in a critical light, all I do is think of 2011 and catching.
ReplyDeleteMendoza Line hitting. And hell I don't even know how you calculate WAR, but it had to be negative. It was painful watching the black hole of suck that Whiteside and CStew put out there. Okay CStew's arm was pretty damn good. But 2011 was BAD.
Enter Sanchez, and everyone gets on him? Don't get it. The guy is one tough hombre, the throwout of (I can't remember who) from his knees the other day was stunning. You don't see that everyday. The kid is young, growing on the job and I think will become a solid starter some day.
Totally agree there Shark.
DeleteJust look back to Whiteside/Stewart. And I love Stewart's D. But, really. Sanchez is a great backup. Great alternative for our problem pitchers. Gets Posey some starts at 1st.
Not sure what people are expecting from a young, switch-hitting backup backstop. One who leapfrogged, basically, from High A last year.
Perspective: this is an organization that went with Marc Hill as the primary catcher for a couple of years.
Again, I have to put in a good word for CStew for his hitting against LHP. However, Hanchez switch-hitting give the Giants a whole lot more flexibility, allowing them to be agile in when to put in the backup as the starter, and not have to wait for a LHP starter to come up on the schedule, that's something else that is really good about having Hanchez as our backup. That's a good tradeoff for the defense CStew provided.
DeleteAnd in 2011, CStew's defense was so good, he was worth 1.4 WAR (all defense, heck defense was 1.7 WAR) vs. the 0.7 that Hanchez provided (mostly offense but defense was about equal too).
And good point Kelly about Hector basically leapfrogging from High-A to the majors, that plus he's only 22 YO.
Ah, a Marc Hill reference. I see your Marc Hill and raise you a Dave Rader. :^) And I'll throw in Dennis Littlejohn as well. :^D
I met Dave Rader's daughter-in-law through a work related connection. I have a ball with his autograph on it.
DeleteOh, and I can't stand MCC/SB Nation's new site makeover. Who wants ESPN graphics on a simple baseball blog. Plus they took out the links to other sites, which got me to OGC and here.,
ReplyDeleteI"ll second the dislike of the new SBN format. Ugh, and It's 3 sites I like to visit every day: MCC, Minorleagueball and BTBS. The new format is just painful!
DeleteThat's when they wuz a mom and pop local watering hole for local yokels. Now they are all perfessional and all, don't have to deal with the little people who helped get them there.
DeleteI find it funny that SBN now tout themselves as sabermetric and that Grant is leading the way on that. Unless he got a crash course on that, I don't expect that to last very long before they bring in someone with more saber-ness as a "partner" to "help" Grant write saber-related content for them. I would not be surprised if someone defects from the ESPN Giants spotlight site (Paap would be my best bet) to be the sabermaster at the new SBN for the Giants.
Well, we've indulged in a bit of MCC bashing here and they deserve that every once in awhile, but I have to say MCC is still the premier Giants oriented blog and I still go there daily to read what they have to say. Not quite sure it's worth the annoyance of the new format, though. That is painful!
DeleteHoly smokes! Homer Bailey just pitched a no-no against the Pirates in Pittsburgh!
ReplyDelete