I promise to give you all a Mock Draft before June 5, but first I would like to offer some thoughts that may impact how I put that together. The Astros are sitting on the first overall pick for the 3'rd year in a row. Those 3 years also happen to be the first 3 years of the new Bonus Pool system which hardens the cap on how much teams can spend on draft prospect bonuses. I have noted a few consequences to this system, some undoubtedly intended and some possibly unintended.
While the system does appear to effectively put a damper and a ceiling on the bonus demands of a consensus best player in the draft, such as a Bryce Harper, it also puts tremendous pressure on the team holding the first 3 or 4 picks to overpay when there is not consensus #1 and the first round talent is roughly equal deep into the round. For instance, Houston's slot bonus for the first pick is $7.9 M. The slot money then drops of rather steeply to $6.8 M for the Marlins at #2, $5.7 M for the ChiSox at #3 and $4.6 M to the Cubs at #4. The Twins have 3.8 M at #5 while the Giants at #15 are still over $2 M, so the dropoff becomes much less steep from #5 on. The thing is, the Twins will have a shot at a large choice of players who are just as likely be be great picks as the #1, except they have to pay a lot less for it. There are two ways for teams to deal with this scenario: 1. Find a player you can strike an under-slot deal with and use the money saved to sweeten the pot on later picks. 2. Go ahead and take the the guy who seems to be the Best Player Available, even if it is by a small margin and pay him the slot bonus.
The Astros have tried it both ways taking Carlos Correa who was rated as a mid-first rounder on most draft boards in 2012, signing him for a couple of $ M below slot then taking some kids who were thought to be tough signs later in the draft. So far, the 'Stros are happy with Correa who is becoming one of the top prospects in baseball, but the players they went over slot for later have been a bit underwhelming. Last year, they took the opposite tack and drafted Mark Appel, warts and all, at #1 and used up their entire #1 slot money on him. Just a guess, but the Astros are probably less than thrilled with how THAT is turning out so far!
Carlos Rodon is this year's Mark Appel. He's been the consensus #1 draft prospect all along until very recently when Brady Aiken's name has edged him out in a few mocks. If you look at Rodon's junior season numbers, you'd say this is just pre-draft jitters and possibly gamesmanship. On the other hand, do you really want to spend all $8 M of your bonus pool slot money on a college pitcher who is already leaning on his slider way too much? The Astros are going to try to strike a deal with someone! Will Aiken be willing to sign for $5 M or $ 6 M? If not, look for the 'Stros to surprise on draft day.
The problem for the 'Stros then becomes, who do you spend the extra money on later? Teams learned quite quickly that most HS players are not as intent on going to college as was previously believed so they just go ahead and draft the BPA regardless of "signability". Most of the time, the player signs. Prospects who drop in the draft due to "signability" are now few and far between and most of them who do are set on going to college no matter what bonus is offered. This means that a team holding a dubious #1 overall pick has a choice between overspending at he top of the draft or overspending later on.
The other big wrench that has been thrown into this draft, is the Ghost of Frank Jobe. The surgery he invented has become necessary for a frighteningly growing list of pitchers. It's become a lot more than just losing a year of development, which for some of these kids is almost trivial, as you don't need a whole lot of development time if you throw 100 MPH. It's that there has also been a huge spike in Tommy John redo surgeries, sometimes within 2 years of the original surgery! I guarantee you that teams are frantically looking at TJ risk factors as I write this, and it is going to be a factor in the draft.
Two consensus first round pitchers have already gone under the knife, Jeff Hoffman and Erick Fedde. Will teams look at the relatively high success rate of initial TJ surgery and take them in the first round anyway, or will they look at the spike in TJ redos and be scared off? Since throwing a lot of sliders, especially early in a career, is widely believed to be a TJ risk factor, that may impact thinking on Rodon. The other huge risk factor to emerge in the last 2-3 years is triple digit velocity. Tyler Kolek, a consensus top 3 selection, is the hardest throwing HS draft prospect in the history of the draft, but he is also a TJ surgery waiting to happen! I believe his stock is going to drop on draft day for that reason alone.
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Interesting post Drb. BA has the Giants taking Jeff Hoffman with their #1 pick. Would you be happy with that?
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I would be skeptical but if the Giants believe enough in him to take him, I would trust it. I don't think that's what they will do, though. I think they are going to take a hitter or a HS pitcher.
DeleteIts Carlos Correa, not spelled like our old buddy Kevin. I kind of liked that move, but they may have missed out on the best player in Buxton, so its a huge gamble. The Mark Appel pick was much worse. I think the pressure at the very top of the draft to not screw the pick up is immense.
ReplyDeleteNick Gordon to the Twins is a pretty solid guess. I just don't see much difference between the 5th overall and the 25th overall in this draft, its relatively thick with arms with some potential. But TJ could be a factor in knocking the choices down for Los Gigantes, 2 out already. I don't think its a smart move to go risk your first rounder on a TJ survivor, at least not in the first 20 especially.
Better now?
DeleteAgree on TJ risk in top 2/3 of the first round. Probably a risk worth taking in the bottom 3'rd of the first round and definitely in the supplemental round or 2'nd round. I was never that sold on Hoffman in the first place, though.
Deletetotally agree on not being sold on Hoffman in the first place.
DeleteI agree, #14 is too high to take a risk on someone making a successful recovery from TJ surgery unless that prospect had a great track record pre-surgery. In the case of Hoffman, the risk of a TJ failure vs the reward of obtaining a pitcher whose stuff has not consistently translated into results is just not worth it. In a draft this rich in pitching a move like that
Deletewould be an unwise use of funds.
On another note, I would not be surprised if Correa eventually becomes a better player than Buxton. CC is nearly a year younger than BB and showing all 5 tools at the key position of SS. He is also said to be mature way beyond his years and a team leader even though still in his teens. It may have appeared the Astros passed up on Buxton intentionally to save $ for later in the draft, but maybe, just maybe it was Correa they wanted all along. Those of us outside the Astros organization may never really know for sure.
Dr. B, if Kolek somehow dropped to the Giants, I would hope they snatch him up in like a millisecond. The difference between him and Hoffman is that he has never been hurt despite touching 100 regularly. I guess any pitcher is a TJ surgery waiting to happen, but maybe Kolek is just some freak whose body can withstand the stress of throwing really really hard. He is certainly a big enough guy to be a workhorse. Nolan Ryan threw really hard for a really long time and I don't recall him ever having a serious arm injury until the very end of his career. I'd be willing to take that chance with someone who has had a clean heath record like Kolek, so the mere fact that he throws really hard would not be a deterrent in and of itself.
ReplyDeleteHow many Nolan Ryan's have there been in the history of baseball? One! What percentage of pitchers who have ever hit documented triple digits have undergone TJ surgery? Pretty much all of them! Yordano Ventura is awaiting his MRI scan as I write this. Kolek is a TJ waiting to happen. Yes, the initial full recovery rate is pretty good, but it's not 100% and a recent study showed that a high percentage of TJ survivors require repeat surgeries within 7 years. #15 is a place where you might start to consider taking a risk on someone like Kolek, and the Giants have shown interest in relievers who have hit triple digits. If a lot of teams are scared off buy the TJ risk, Kolek could drop to #15, but most likely he won't.
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