MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2023 First Round

1.  Pirates:  Paul Skenes RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  0-0, 0.99, 27.1 IP, 14.82 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.86 GB/FB.

2024(MLB):  11-3, 1.96, 133 IP, 11.50 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 1.66 GB/FB.

Dylan Crews was the consensus top prospect throughout the draft cycle but Skenes had a tremendous college season and word got out in the week leading up to the draft that the Pirates were seriously considering him.  Although Crews may well end up being the more valuable MLB player in the long run, it's hard to remember any 1-1 draft pick making such a huge immediate impact as Skenes.  Maybe he will be among the handful of durable super-ace pitchers in baseball history like Justin Verlander but given his high 90's velocity and touching triple digits, chances are there is a TJ surgery in his future at some point.  But for now, home run pick by the Pirates!

2.  Nationals:  Dylan Crews OF, College.

2024(AA):  .274/343/.446, 5 HR, 15 SB, 7.6 BB%, 23.7 K%, 211 PA.

2024(AAA):  .265/.340/.455, 8 HR, 10 SB, 8.4 BB%, 17.6 K%, 238 PA.

2024(MLB):  .218/.288/.353, 3 HR, 12 SB, 8.3 BB%, 19.7 K%, 132 PA.

The Nationals were going to draft either Crews or Skenes but had to wait for the Pirates to dictate which it would be.  Crews didn't quite set the minor leagues on fire and scuffled a bit in his small sample MLB debut but there is no reason to not expect him to be an impact player for a long time.

3.  Tigers:  Max Clark OF, HS.

2024(A):  .286/.386/.421, 7 HR, 26 SB, 14.4 BB%, 17.4 K%, 333 PA.

2024(A+):  .264/.344/.421, 2 HR, 3 SB, 8.3 BB%, 22.9 K%, 157 PA.

Modest power which may increase with maturity, excellent speed and defense in CF.  A+ is an agressive level for a HS draftee to reach in his first full pro season so Clark is on track to be a future impact player at he MLB level.

4.  Rangers:  Wyatt Langford OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .253/.325/.415, 16 HR, 19 SB, 9.2 BB%, 20.6 K%, 557 PA.

That's an impressive MLB debut even for a top college player in his first full pro season.  Plenty to build on here and should be in impact player for many years.

5.  Twins:  Walker Jenkins, OF, HS.

2024(FCL):  .393/.514/.571, 3 SB, 21.6 BB%, 5.4 K%, 37 PA.

2024(A):  .273/.404/.413, 3 HR, 4 SB, 18.5 BB%, 11.3 K%, 151 PA.

2024(A+):  .290/.382/.481, 3 HR, 8 SB, 11.2 BB%, 15.8 K%, 152 PA.

2024(AA):  .160/.250/.200, 2 SB, 10.7 BB%, 14.3 K%, 28 PA.

Again, A+ is aggressive advancement for a HS draftee in his first full pro season.  The late season cameo at AA just gives him a look at what he has to get ready for in 2025. Super-impressive numbers at A and A+ levels.

6.  A's:  Jacob Wilson SS, College.

2024(AA):  .455/.473/.705, 3 HR, 2 SB, 2.2 BB%, 10.8 K%, 93 PA.

2024(AAA):  .396/.448/.613, 4 HR, 7.8 BB%, 4.3 K?%, 116 PA.

2024(MLB):  .250/.314/.315, 7.8 BB%, 9.7 K%, 103 PA, 0.1 fWAR.

Wilson is the son of a former major leaguer and has an extremely advanced skill set.  Modest MLB debut impressive for first full pro season with plenty to build on.

7. Reds:  Rhett Lowder RHP, College.

2024(A+):  2-0, 2.49, 25.1 IP, 10.30 K/9, 2.13 BB/9.

2024(AA):  4-4, 4.31, 77.1 IP, 8.96 K/9, 2.09 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 10.5 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-2, 1.17, 30.2 IP, 6.46 K/9, 4.11 BB/9.

Ratios dropped dramatically after MLB debut.  Is that second-half fatigue setting in or did he reach his talent ceiling?  I wasn't a huge Lowder fan going into the draft.  2025 should be a telling season.

8.  Royals:  Blake Mitchell C, HS.

2024(A):  .238/.376/.439, 18 HR, 25 SB, 17.0 BB%, 30.5 K%, 466 PA.

2024(A+):  .111/.200/.111, SB, 5.0 BB%, 35.0 K%, 20 PA.

HS catchers are the highest risk draft demographic.  A level is appropriate for first full season and those numbers look quite good except for a high K rate.  Would ignore the extremely small A+ sample and consider it a head start on 2025.

9.  Rockies:  Chase Dollander RHP, College.

2024(A+):  4-1, 2.83, 70.0 IP, 14.27 K/9, 3.60 BB/9.

2024(AA):  2-1, 2.25, 48 IP, 10.88, 3.56 BB/9.

Dollander was the consensus top pitcher in the draft at the start of the cycle and was #1 overall on one early ranking.  He had an OK but disappointing junior season but looks fine so far in pro ball with normal progression.

10.  Marlins:  Noble Meyer RHP, HS.

2024(A):  2-2, 2.65, 34 IP, 11.38 K/9, 6.09 BB/9.

2024(A+):  0-5, 5.18, 40.0 IP, 9.45 K/9, 7.20 BB/9.

Premium HS arm who needs to develop better command of his pitches.

11.  Angels:  Nolan Schanuel, 1B, College.

2024(MLB):  .250/.343/.362, 13 HR, 10 SB, 11.2 BB%, 17.0 K%, 607 PA.

Good numbers that should get better considering he's being force-fed at the MLB level.

12.  D'Backs:  Tommy Troy SS, College.

2024(A+):  .227/.319/.347, 5 HR, 16 SB, 10.4 BB%, 22.2 K%, 288 PA.  

Somewhat polarizing prospect out of Stanford who was widely projected to go to the Giants.  Probably a good thing for the Giants D'Backs took him off the board, not that he's a failed prospect at this point.

13.  Cubs:  Matt Shaw SS, College.

2024(AA):  .279/.373/.468, 14 HR, 25 SB, 12.1 BB%, 17.5 K%, 371 PA.

2024(AAA):  .298/.395/.534, 7 HR, 6 SB, 11.2 K%, 19.7 BB%, 152 PA.

The rap on Shaw coming out of college was he might not stick at SS.  Well, the bat looks like it will play anywhere!  He is working at SS/3B and 2B in the pros.  Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who loves colorful descriptions said "Shaw is a power-hitting stick of dynamite who crushed pro ball after the draft.  With Nico Hoerner post-surgery, expect Shaw in the Cubs lineup somewhere from Opening Day.

14.  Red Sox:  Kyle Teel C, College.

2024(AA):  .298/.390/.462, 11 HR, 9 SB, 12.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 382 PA.

2024(AAA):  .255/.374/.343, 2 HR, 3 SB, 16.3 BB%, 23.6 K%, 123 PA.

Given FZ's fetish with catchers, I thought Teel would be the Giants pick if he fell that far.  That didn't happen but he would have been a fine pick if it did.

15. White Sox:  Jacob Gonzalez SS, College.

2024(A+):  .273/.364/.399, 3. HR, 7 SB, 11.5 BB%, 10.3 K%, 165 PA.

2024(AA):  .225/.284/.321, 5 HR, 10 SB, 6.9 BB%, 14.0 K%, 407 PA.

AA is an aggressive placement for first full pro season.  He can repeat the level and still be in good development position.

16. Giants:  Bryce Eldridge 1B/OF/RHP, HS.

2024(A):  .263/.323/.478, 10 HR, 2 SB, 7.4 BB%, 26.6 K%, 229 PA.

2024(A+):  .335/.442/.618, 12 HR, 3 SB, 16.3 BB%, 24.2 K%, 215 PA.

2024(AA):  .270/.325/.459, HR, SB, 7.5 BB%, 20.0 K%, 40 PA.

2024(AAA):  .226/.314/.226, 11.4 BB%, 31.4 K%, 35 PA.

2024(AFL):  .293/.348/.512, 2 HR, 3 BB, 16 K, 46 PA.

It's still early but this is shaping up to be a draft for the ages.  Fortunately it looks like the Giants didn't miss the party with Eldridge.  Drafted as a 2-way athlete, he never pitched and hit so well out of the gate decided to concentrate on that.  Could well make his MLB debut in 2025.

17.  Orioles:  Enrique Bradfield Jr OF, College.

2024(A+):  .267/.345/.363, 3 HR, 59 SB, 10.0 BB%, 16.6 K%, 349 PA.

2024(AA)):  .287/.395/.396, HR, 15 SB, 12.5 BB%, 11.7 K%, 120 PA.

Blazing speed but not much power.  That's demographic has had it tough for over a decade but Bradfield's ratios look like he might overcome that.  Given some of Buster's statements about how he envisions constructing the Giants roster to fit the ballpark, you have to wonder if he might have popped Bradfield instead of Eldridge if he was the POBO then.

18.  Brewers:  Brock Wilken 3B, College.

2024(AA):  .199/.312/.363, 17 HR, 13.4 BB%, 28.2 K%, 471 PA.

Might have been the top power hitter in the draft.  Looks like a classic 3-true outcomes guy which is a demographic I am skeptical of at the minor league level.

19.  Rays:  Brayden Taylor 3B, College.

2024(A+):  .269/.389/.513, 14 HR, 26 SB, 15.9 BB%, 24.9 K%, 383 PA.

2024(AA):  .194/.290/.435, 6 HR, 3 SB, 12.0 BB%, 36.8 K%, 125 PA.

Some analysts thought he was the best pure hitter in the draft.  A+ is an appropriate level with AA being an aggressive promotion.

20.  Blue Jays:  Arjun Nimmala SS, HS.

2024(FCL):  .238/.467/.571, HR, 30.0 BB%, 23.3 K%, 30 PA.

2024(A):  .232/.313/.476, 16 HR, 9 SB, 8.3 BB%, 31.3 K%, 361 PA.

Eric's take on Fangraphs:  "Nimmala is a tooled-up teenage hitter with huge power projection and a risky hit tool caused by poor breaking ball recognition."  Has time to develop skills to back back up the tools.

21.  Cardinals:  Chase Davis OF, College.

2024(A):  .232/.337/.401, 8 HR, 5 SB, 12.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, 315 PA.

2024(A+):  .301/.388/.451, 3 HR, 10.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, 129 PA.

2024(AA):  .250/.323/.429, HR, 3 SB, 9.7 BB%, 16.1 K%, 31 PA.

Late helium in the draft cycle.  Not sure what to make of these numbers his A+ and AA numbers are better than his A line but smaller samples.  2025 could be a pivotal season for him.

22.  Mariners:  Colt Emerson SS, HS.

2024(A):  .293/.440/.427, 2 HR, 6 SB, 18.1 BB%, 14.0 K%, 193 PA.

2024(A+):  .225/.331/.317, 2 HR, 9 SB, 10.8 BB%, 21.6 K%, 139 PA.

Again, promotion to A+ is aggressive but seems to be the new normal and gives him a head start on 2025.

23.  Guardians:  Ralphy Velasquez C, HS.

2024(A):  .243/.362/.414, 10 HR, 8 SB, 15.0 BB%, 20.1 K%, 373 PA.

2024(A+):  .176/.275/.250, HR, 12.5 BB%, 25.0 K%, 80 PA.

Ditto.

24.  Braves:  Hursten Waldrep RHP, College.

2024(AA):  3-4, 2.92, 49.1 IP, 8.76 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 1.40 GB/FB.

2024(AAA):  2-2, 3.38, 40.0 IP, 9.68 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, 1.42 GB/FB.

2024(MLB):  0-1, 16.71, 7 IP, 3.86 K/9, 10.29 BB/9, 1.10 GB/FB.

Faceplanted at MLB level but it was an aggressive promotion and a small sample.  Looks like command needs some refinement.

FB 95.8 MPH.

25.  Padres:  Dillon Head OF, HS.

2024(A, Padres):  .237/.317/.366, HR, 3 SB, 8.7 BB%, 24.0 K%, 104 PA.

2024(A, Marlins):  .333/.333/.500, 2 SB, 0.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 12 PA.

2024(ACL, Marlins):  .167/.286/.667, HR, 14.3 BB%, 28.6 K%, 7 PA.

Traded by the Padres to the Marlins for Luis Arraez.  Beset by a series of injuries after that.  Had surgery for a hip acetabular impingement. Yikes!  

26.  Yankees:  George Lombard SS, HS.

2024(A):  .232/.344/.348, 5 HR, 30 SB, 12.8 BB%, 24.0 K%, 366 PA.

2024(A+):  .226/.321/.296, 9 SB, 10.7 BB%, 19.8 K%, 131 PA.

Familiar development pattern shows up again.

27.  Philies:  Aiden Miller 3B, HS.

2024(A):  .275/.401/.483, 5 HR, 10 SB, 14.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, 182 PA.

2024(A+):  .258/.353/.444, 6 HR, 12 SB, 11.6 BB%, 22.1 K%, 258 PA.

2024(AA):  .190/.227/.190, SB, 0.0 BB%, 18.2 K%, 22 PA.

2024(A):  .275/.401/.483, 5 HR, 10 SB, 14.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, 182 PA.

2024(A+):  .258/.353/.444, 6 HR, 12 SB, 11.6 BB%, 22.1 K%, 258 PA.

2024(AA):  .190/.227/.190, SB, 0.0 BB%, 18.2 K%, 22 PA.

I read one predraft analyst who thought Miller was the best pure HS hitter in the draft.  These numbers don't contradict that notion.

28.  Astros:  Brice Matthews SS, College.

2024(A+):  .321/.423/.580, 6 HR, 10 SB, 14.4 BB%, 26.8 K%, 97 PA.

2024(AA):  .252/.376/.497, 9 HR, 16 SB, 13.3 BB%, 33.7 K%, 181 PA.

2024(AAA):  .143/.250/.190, 3 SB, 6.3 BB%, 39.6 K%, 48 PA.

Should start 2025 in AAA and should hit better.  A Mining the News note in Fangraphs says he has fringy arm strength for both SS and 3B and could move to 2B or CF in the majors.

Summary:

Wow! What first round!  It's still early and there will undoubtedly be dropouts but the early returns point to this possibly being one of the greatest draft classes of all time.  Fortunately it looks like the Giants did not miss out on drafting a gem with Eldridge at #16.