Hey team! Today is MLB Amateur Draft Day! It's actually 3 days, probably my favorite 3 sports days of the year. It's a first chance to get a look at players we may be rooting for wearing a Giants uniform in Oracle Park and to dream of possibilities. Please check out DrB's Final Draft Board posted on June 26 in the Archives to the left. Also check out my general draft comments from Friday. Here I thought I would post some thoughts on players who are likely to be available when the Giants draft and why I think they might draft them. I'll break it down by demographic.
College Hitters: The second tier of college hitters is crazy deep this year. Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford will be long since drafted by the time the Giants select at #16 but there will almost certainly be college hitters available there who are just as likely to be great major leaguers as ones taken in the 6-10 range. Here are a few to to consider:
Jacob Gonzalez SS- I have him at #6 on my board but I have seen mock drafts that have him falling to the Giants. Could the Giants use a lefty hitting shortstop in their system? You bet they could! That said, I think it's a longshot for him to still be on the board at #16.
Jacob Wilson SS- Son of former MLB SS Jack Wilson. Contact hitter without a lot of power but only struck out 5 times in a full college season. Could still grow into power as his frame can carry more mass. Grand Canyon U has a serious baseball program but plays in a relatively weak conference. Intriguing player but I'm not sure FZ digs the high contact/low power/low walks/low K's profile, although the Giants have drafted several in that demographic in later rounds like Wade Meckler.
Tommy Troy SS- I wonder why he didn't go to USC where he would have had an 80+ name. Still a pretty good name and ironic he played college ball at Stanford. One of the better all-around players in the draft who had a tremendous junior season. FZ likes local prospects. Odds of them drafting any one players at #16 are quite low as there are so many variables but if I was going to rank players by probability of being drafted by the Giants, he would probably be at the top of the list.
Matt Shaw SS- Very similar player to Tommy Troy who some scouts like better. He's slightly bigger with a bit more power. Like Troy is versatile and projects well to multiple positions.
Enrique Bradfield CF- It's been 20 years since a "slap and dash" hitter has made in impact at the MLB level. Bradfield is going to be a test of how much the new rules might bring them back. I have to say I would be disappointed if the Giants draft him but if FZ is convinced the new rules favor SB's I could see him drafting Bradfield.
Brock Wilken 3B- If you are looking for pure power, Wilken is your guy. 31 HR's for Wake Forest in the college season. Size and frame remind me of Pat Burrell. Relatively unathletic and slow of foot limits him defensively. I could see FZ falling in love with the power.
Nolan Schanuel OF- Video game numbers for Florida Atlantic. Where you rank him depends on real you think those numbers are. Gotta wonder about strength of competition. Lefty bat is a plus.
High School Hitters: Also a deep second tier. Comparable to the second tier of college hitters but will take longer to reach the majors with the accompanying risk. Too many to name all of them here but a couple who the Giants are rumored to be in on.
Colin Houck SS- Very similar profile to Tommy Troy and Matt Shaw but a little bigger. May not stick at SS but power projection plays at less premium positions. Bats righty.
Walker Martin SS- Attraction here is the projectable lefty bat and ability to stick at SS. Giants are rumored to be in on him but possibly for the second round at #52. Based on rankings and mock drafts I doubt he's still on the board at #52 but you never know, especially with high schoolers. Those rumors could be misdirections too.
High School Pitchers: HS pitchers are generally considered the highest risk demographic in the draft but the Giants have had a lot of success drafting them over the years. I mean, do the names Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner ring any bells? There are 3 HS pitchers, all very similar in size and stuff, who would make worthy mid-first round draft picks:
Noble Meyer RHP- Tremendous frame with tons of projection, smooth effortless delivery. Already has enough secondary stuff to make him a fast mover despite his youth.
Thomas White LHP- Very similar profile to Meyer but lefty arm an added attraction. I still rank Meyer higher as his frame looks a bit sturdier and White has more effort in his delivery to my eye.
Charlee Soto RHP- Again, very similar profile to Meyer. Frame is a bit more filled out. Meyer uses a changeup for his main secondary pitch while Soto uses a split. On one video it looked like hitters were picking up the split and laying off while it dropped out of the strike zone for a ball.
College Pitchers: Paul Skenes is so far ahead of any other college pitcher I am not sure there is a second tier. What's left after Skenes is more like third tier. On thing to remember here is the Giants head national cross-checker is Brian Bridges who loves to draft pitching.
Rhett Lowder RHP- Lowder is more of a classic pitchability college pitcher whose best pitch is a changeup. He did get his FB up as high as 97 MPH and matched up will with Skenes in the College World Series. Most mock drafts have him coming off the board before the Giants pick, though.
Hursten Waldrep RHP- More of a power pitcher than Lowder. Inconsistent during the regular college season but stepped up his game in the College World Series.
Chase Dollander RHP- Some preseason rankings had Dollander at #1 overall and no lower than #3. His command stumbled significantly his junior season so stock is lower. How much lower? Still might have the best overall stuff in the draft.
Two-Way Player(HS): Here is a wild card for you.
Bryce Eldridge RHP/1B/DH/OF. Tremendous size at 6' 7". The one true 2-way player in the draft. Most scouts see him as a hitter with tremendous lefthanded power projection. He looks more like a RHP to my eye with incredible size, downward plane and room to fill out his frame which is quite sturdy for a kid that tall. Giants reached for a 2-way player last draft. Would they do it again?
Having put this all together, the Giants will probably draft someone I haven't even considered but that's the MLB draft for you. Check back around 4:00 PM PDT. I am going to try to set up a live blog for the draft. Giants probably won't be on the board until around 2 hours in, around 6:00 PM PDT.
This is a great list. Thanks Doc
ReplyDeleteToday Mayo @ MLB Piopeline has the Giants taking Chase Dollander at 16, while his partner Callis reverts to Tommy Troy. One has Noble Meyer going at 9; the other at 20. If Meyer is there at 16 I think he would be my choice.
ReplyDeleteBecause it is so hard to follow or project the baseball draft, I like to look up relatively local guys who might be of interest. For purposes of the first three rounds, this year there seems to be very little from the Bay Area or even Northern Cal. beyond Troy.
If we look south, however, Cole Carrigg SS/OF/C of San Diego St. intrigues me. He has a profile that reminds of a former Zaidi choice from SD St. -- Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 60 | Arm: 70 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50. MLB ranks 46. Could be there at 52.
Later on, I like Joey Volchko RHP out of HS in Visalia. Big kid at 6'4" 210 lbs ranked 80 (Law has him 69), scouted with Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45. Stanford commit. Maybe round 2? Or underslot at 52?
An even bigger fellow (at 6'8") is UCLA's Alonzo Treadwell RHP, whom Mayo ranks 63 but didn't make Law's top 100. Despite the size seems like a control/variety guy, and was still recovering this year from 2020 TJ surgery - could be a bargain in round 2 if they conclude he's fully recovered. Scouted at Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50.
There are three SoCal HS players bunched in the rankings (1 comp picks or rnd Round) and somewhat similar in style and position, Eric Botonti SS/3B, Trent Caraway 3B/SS, Roman Martin SS.
Later on, maybe round 4 or 5, is Garret Forrester 1B from Oregon (apparently is from NorCal). Mayo ranks 116 (not on Law top 100), scouted at Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 35 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45. So he's slow, otherwise decent fielder, but "one of the better college bats on the West Coast in this Draft class." I like players who can put the bat on the ball. He could probably play 3B.
Gotta go all the way down to no. 159 to find a HS kid from the Bay Area, broadly read: Gabe Gaeckle RHP from Aptos. He's small (5'11" 185 lbs) but that hasn't daunted the Giants too much. Graded at Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 40. I would think being picked by the Giants around round 10 for an overslot could pull him from an Arkansas commitment.
The only other college guy form the Bay Area is all the way down at 248, Paulshawn Pasqualotto, a starting RHP from Cal. Had TJ surgery in 2022 and "returned this year as Cal’s Saturday starter, and while his results have been understandably up and down post-elbow reconstruction, he’s shown signs of having a big league arm." Currently graded at FB 50 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40. Could be undervalued and could be taken for an underslot in rounds 7-10.
The Giants usually look for at least or two relatively local fellows. It'll be interesting to see if any of them are above.
Bryce Eldridge it is. 2 two way players in the system now.
ReplyDeleteIf you think about it, @ 16 there are attractions, hitters AND pitchers, but there is NO certainty, SO why not take a guy who has 2 separate and distinct chances of making it?
ReplyDeleteThere is Mr Zaidi at his calculating best: every one else from 17 to Timbuktu has 1 shot at the Gold Ring and the Giants have 2!
Yes Eldridge is a good athlete with tremendous upside, but who knows how his development will go on the pitching or hitting side , he has 2 chances to make it. Good point.
DeleteSome really good predictions here Dr. B, nicely done.
ReplyDelete