I don't have the time or energy to post a detailed review of each prospects first half but but popular demand, here is a quick review of DrB's 2023 Giants Top 50 Prospects list with hot takes and stock trends.
1. Kyle Harrison LHP- Showing great stuff but still struggling with command and pitch counts at AAA level. PCL is tough and the electronic strike zone reportedly small. Would he do better at the MLB level? Stock stable.
2. Marco Luciano SS- Coming off an extended back injury. Seems to be heating up at AA Richmond after a slow start. Stock stable.
3. Casey Schmitt 3B- Promoted to MLB club and has accumulated enough AB's to be officially "graduated". Actually playing more SS and 2B than 3B. Spectacular defender. Struggling with pitch selection after league got a book on him. Stock stable.
4. Luis Matos CF- Big rebound from 2022 struggles in A+ ball. Currently playing well at MLB level. Needs to get stronger so more warning track flyballs go over the fence. Still very young so that should happen naturally as he matures. Stock up.
5. Carson Whisenhunt LHP- Promoted twice in first full pro season. Adjusting to AA. Double-plus changeup looks to be for real. Stock up.
6. Reggie Crawford LHP/1B/DH- Late start to season coming off TJ rehab. Conservative placement and cautious usage. Has pitched just 11 innings in 7 appearances. 18 K's and 4 BB's in 11 IP. Batting .250 but with a .563 SLG% in just 18 PA. Still has the ceiling and is still playing 2 ways. Still high reward/high risk. Stock stable.
7. Aeverson Arteaga SS- Showing flashes in A+ but inconsistent. Still young for level. For a comp, see Luis Matos last season. Stock stable.
8. Grant McCray OF- Hitting better at A+ after an extremely slow start. Is he running out of time? Stock down.
9. Vaun Brown OF- Hitting HR's at AA. Stock up.
10. Patrick Bailey C- Starring at MLB level and looking like Giants starting catcher for next 10 years. Officially "graduated". Stock way up.
11. Jairo Pomares OF- Has all but disappeared. Stock way down.
12. Mason Black RHP- Recently pitched over 20 consecutive shutout innings at AA. Stock way up.
13. Landon Roupp RHP- Pitching well at AA. Stock up.
14. Carson Seymour RHP- Inconsistent at AA. Stock slightly down.
15. Will Wilson SS- Has had some good games but still looking for traction. May be running out of time. Stock down.
16. Heliot Ramos OF- Struggled again early but big rebound after IL stint. Will he get another shot with the Giants? Stock stable but recent trend up.
17. Cole Waites RHP- Big struggles with command. Stock down.
18. R. J. Dabovich RHP- Has disappeared. Must be injured. Stock down.
19. Trevor McDonald RHP- Struggled then disappeared. Injury? Stock down.
20. Jose Cruz RHP- Pitching well at AA. Stock up.
21. Eric Silva RHP- Struggles at A+. Stock down.
22. Adrian Sugastey C- maintaining around .300 BA while young for A+. Stock up.
23. Will Bednar RHP- Late start to season but stat lines look all too familiar in rehab starts. Stock down.
24. Blake Sabol OF/C- Big contributor to the MLB club. Will almost certainly complete season with the Giants as a Rule 5 pick. Officially "graduated". Stock way up.
25. Randy Rodriguez RHP- Promoted to AAA. Still getting his feet on ground at that level. Stock stable.
26. Keaton Winn RHP- Has pitched will at AAA and MLB levels. Stock way up.
27. Brett Wisely IF- Has filled in at MLB level. Looks like a career AAAA/depth player. Stock stable.
28. Tristan Beck RHP- has pitched well in lower leverage situations at MLB level. Will Giants challenge him with higher leverage/SP roles? Stock way up.
29. Matt Mikulski LHP- Struggling at A+. Stock down.
30. Chris Wright LHP- Pitching well for AAA Sacramento. Second half callup? Stock up.
31. Brett Auerbach UT- Continues to struggle at the plate and demoted to A+. Stock down.
32. Tyler Fitzgerald SS- Hitting well for AAA Sac. Future with Giants unclear but biding time. Should eventually get a shot somewhere. Stock up.
33. Nick Swiney LHP- Quietly holding his own in AAA Sacramento. Stock up.
34. Nick Zwack LHP- inconsistent at AA Richmond. Stock stable.
35. Juan Sanchez LHP- Pitching well for AA Richmond. Stock up.
36. Andy Thomas C- flashes of power for AA Richmond but BA remains low. Stock down.
37. Wade Meckler OF- tearing it up for AA Richmond. Not much power. Stock way up.
38. Victor Bericoto OF/1B- Tore up A+. Has already shown some power at AA. Stock up but may be running out of time(rule 5 elgible after season).
39. Nick Sinacola RHP- Inconsistent at A+. Stock stable to down.
40. Alexander Suarez RHP- Hitting a little better for A San Jose but may be starting to run out of time. Stock stable.
41. Diego Velasquez SS/2B- maintaining a .300 BA for San Jose. Stock up.
42. P. J. Hilson OF- holding his own for A San Jose. Very slow developer. May be running out of time. Stock Stable.
43. Anthony Rodriguez SS/3B- Showing flashed of power potential at A San Jose but wildly error prone in the field. Stock stable.
44. Mikell Manzano RHP- Struggling for A San Jose. Stock down.
45. Nomar Medina LHP- Inconsistent for A San Jose. Stock stable.
46. Gerelmi Maldonado RHP- Flashes of dominance for San Jose but inconsistent. Stock up.
47. Zack Morgan C- Has struggled to hit consistently for A San Jose. Stock down.
48. Jared Dupere OF- Hitting well with power for A Eugene. Stock up.
49. Mauricio Pierre OF- Disappeared. Is he even still in the organization? Stock way down.
50. Hunter Bishop OF- Another lost season and may be running out of time. Stock down.
I am not going to go through the Honorable Mentions but should make note of Ryan Walker RHP who has shined out of the bullpen for the Giants. Stock way up. Also Hayden Birdsong RHP is pitching well for A+ Eugene after a promotion. Lots of DSL kids off to great starts to their pro career but bonus baby Rayner Arias OF looks like a future star(although currently out with apparent injury).
Looking forward to an exciting second half of Down on the Farm including onboarding of new draftees.
Excellent synopsis.
ReplyDeleteWith several disappointments, outlook seems between "Stock up" and "Stock way up."
Is anyone indispensable, not to be traded for anyone, not ever, never, including the 2-way guy down south who is really 2 guys in 1 package?
Nobody is totally indispensable but I don't think you trade Luciano or Harrison for a 2-month rental even if that rental is by far the best 2-way player of all time.
DeleteCompletely nitpicking, it is hoped to be a 3-month rental:
DeleteFrom NLT August 1 to November 5th
Doc,
ReplyDeleteThanks for this mid-season review. Good news with only 6 of the 50 with a "Stock Down" rating. Looking forward to the rest of the season with interesting race in the NL race and with how the Giants plan to play it on the trade market. Looks to me like bringing up Kyle Harrison might not be a great idea this season. With Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck contributing I don't think they need to rush Harrison.
Is Sean Hjelle not on the list because he had 25IP last season or because of limited success?
Thanks
I left Hjelle out of the original list because I thought he graduated but he hadn't so I wrote a separate profile on him. I would say his stock is pretty much stable.
DeleteDoes Harrison need a Norm Sherry?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/sports/baseball/norm-sherry-dead.html
McCray running out of time? Absurd strikeouts, but: gets his walks (& last season too), .350BABiPs, gets a few HRs, steals a lot of bases, bats lefty, plays CF, 21 years old in A+ 4 years after being a 3rd rounder out of HS. Not meteoric, but seems he's on a reasonable trajectory & has some margin to start K'ing less while progressing through the couple levels remaining ahead of him, especially with lefty OF prospect problems indicated on your list's #s 11 & 50
ReplyDeleteWhich other prospect should be protected from rule 5 draft?...thanx!!!
DeleteIt's college players drafted in 2020 and HS/international players drafted/signed in 2019. The 2020 draft was shortened so there may not be that many New Rule 5 eligibles. I haven't had a chance/time to review the full list but Victor Bericoto is another.
DeleteUnless Bednar has a great second half, he probably would not be protected. Since Kyle Harrison came out of HS, he has another year. Nick Swiney probably not unless he comes on strong in second half.
DeleteErik Miller. Stock up! 🥳
ReplyDeleteWith a walk rate of 8.23/9?
DeleteLooking at your top 50 prospects list, the latest draft seems to address 2 areas that the system is weak in: left handed hitters and middle infielders. Eldridge, Martin, Foster(switch hitter), Ahuna, Schliger, Banduras, Szykowsky all drafted in the 1st 10 rounds and bat left-handed. As for middle infield I like that although Martin is a high risk/high rewards pick at SS, they drafted 2 other highly rated college SS Foster, and Ahuna to fall back on if Martin struggles. With Schmidt graduating not much in the system in the middle infield besides Luciano, Fitzgerald, and Artiaga who's in the lower minors. This draft could fill that void. Also the Giants are showing that they are not risk adverse to drafting talented high risk/high reward players. Eldridge and Martin in 2023, Reggie Crawford in 2022. I also read that Keith Law said that Hunter Bishop was a serious swing for the fences pick in 2019 too. Too bad he can't seem to stay on the field.
ReplyDeleteAgree, they definitely drafted for organizational need as well as addressing FZ's obsession with 2-way players and catchers.
DeleteYOU are truly amazing, Doc, to pull this together, so complete, so analytical, so enlightening.
ReplyDeleteAre YOU this good a doctor, too? I bet you are.
Thank you for the kind words. I will let others be the judge. I basically just start writing and say whatever comes to my mind. I set up a window to the side to look up stats and boxscores but the rest is pretty much just stream of consciousness.
DeleteBallpark numbers, where would you put in the new rookies in the rankings?
ReplyDeleteI assume you mean the new draftees? I would put both Eldridge and Martin somewhere in the 5-10 range. Whitman 10-15. The rest? Probably not listed until we see some actual pro results.
DeleteDabovich is listed in the current River Cats Roster as "Injured - Full Season"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.milb.com/player/r-j-dabovich-681924