The 2023 MLB Amateur Draft is coming up this Sunday evening. We'll start our coverage with some bigger picture analysis. As we get closer over the weekend, we'll take a look at some specific players who may interest the Giants who are also likely to be available when they pick in the first round at #16 overall. Draft scouting beyond the first round is ridiculously futile at best and it's gotten a lot harder in recent years as amateur baseball content is increasingly sequestered behind paywalls which IMO are not worth paying for, at least for a non-professional blogger like me. And of course we'll review and analyze every Giants pick out of the 20 rounds.
Two to three years ago, the Giants farm system leaned heavily to the hitting/positional side. That has rebalanced or even reversed since the last two drafts went heavily for pitching. The Giants are in pretty good position to take the best players available this year but it might be time to invest slightly more in hitting, especially in the first round. More precisely, I would say there is a small organizational deficit in impact lefthanded bats and in power bats. Currently, once you get past Marco Luciano SS, who bats RH the prospect with major power potential is 17 year old Rayner Arias OF who also bats RH.
Overall this looks like a strong draft. This college class of juniors are made up of 2020 high school prospects many of whom got shut out of that draft due to it being shortened to 5 rounds due to COVID which has swelled the ranks of good college players. For some reason that translated more to the hitting side than pitching as the college hitting class is extremely deep. While Paul Skenes RHP looks like a Stephen Strasberg level prospect and their is some depth later in the draft, it's tough to find any other college pitchers worthy of a first round pick. High school hitter and pitcher classes are about average. Historically college hitters give the best draft ROI so overall this is a really strong, interesting draft.
As a general rule, organizations should never, ever draft for MLB level needs. Organizational needs can and should be addressed in subsequent rounds but the first round pick should always be the best signable player available. Signability is relative and there is the catch. The FZ era Giants seem to like to draft players in the first round who will accept underslot bonuses so they can draft high-ceiling HS players who have the option of going to college as leverage in later rounds. That strategy worked like a charm in 2020 with Patrick Bailey C taking the major leagues by storm and Kyle Harrison LHP a very promising pitching prospect they were able to sign away from a UCLA commitment. In general, though, drafts are made or broken in the first round and I personally favor drafting the best player available and doing what it takes to get them signed.
Interesting that Keith Law today has a HS pitcher - Noble Meyer out of Portland - dropping to the Giants. Seems unlikely to me, and would be ironic given your comments. In past mocks Law mostly has called Tommy Troy (also an ironic name given his school), who seems like he's in the center of the bell curve and would fit, though not terribly exciting, though at least local.
ReplyDeleteLaw also says the Giants are in on the HS SS from Colorado, Walker Martin, but thinks they may be looking at pick 52 (for Rodon). Mayo ranks Martin no. 30.
Mayo slots them with the speedster Bradfield at 16. I understand the appeal but the lack of clear hitting ability gives me the willies. Mayo also places your guy Gonzales SS down several slots after the Giants' pick and I'm not sure why. Law has him going at 5. If available Gonzales seems like a stronger pick than Troy to me, even though I like the local angle on Troy.
I completely agree with your take on Bradfield. If FZ takes him at #16, it will give us a major window into his thoughts on the new rules and how to take advantage of them but it's been close to two decades since a player with his skill set made an impact. I really like the three HS pitchers I have bunched together on my list. In spite of TINSTAPP, the Giants have had a lot of success with HS pitching. I'd be pretty happy if they took Noble Meyer. I like Martin's long term upside but it will obviously take him longer to reach it with more inherent risk than a similar college prospect.
DeleteNolan Schanult. Dude rakes
ReplyDeleteNot so much in the Cape Cod League. Video game numbers in college but what was strength of competition?
DeleteNothing but a hunch, but I get a Brandon Belt feeling
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