Tuesday, July 11, 2017

All-Star Break Q/A

All-Star Break is a nice time to catch our breaths and do a Q/A.  Submit questions on any baseball related topic.  I will try to answer some of the simpler ones during the day, but most answers will likely come this evening after work.  If community members want to give. their own answers before then, that's OK too.

A news note:  The Giants optioned Mac Williamson back to AAA to make room on the roster for Eduardo Nunez who they anticipate will come off the DL when the season resumes on Friday.  According to SF Gate, Gorkys Hernandez will likely play LF with Nunez playing mostly 3B.  The Giants are reportedly considering promoting Chris Shaw, who would have to be added to the 40 man roster to come up.  

I understand activating Nunez.  He has to play to rebuild his trade value.  I also understand keeping Gorkys Hernandez around to be the the 4'th OF.  What I don't understand is why they would keep Conor Gillaspie when they also have Jae-Gyun Hwang who can play the same positions.  You put all this together and it sounds like they have 1.  Given up on Mac and 2.  Are still trying to put the team out there that has the best chance to win now.  If true, both parts of that are a mistake.

I know Mac has scuffled since coming off the DL, but the Giants have to find some power for LF by next season if they want to contend again.  It would be a mistake to count on Austin Slater making a full recovery from his injury or to count on Shaw being able to handle the position defensively.  Just my opinion, but Mac still is their best chance of getting both the power and defense they need out of LF for 2018, at least among internal options.  Why not put him out there long enough to see if he can get his timing and swing back?

OK, with that off my chest, fire away with the questions!

42 comments:

  1. Heliot Ramos and Jacob Gonzalez!! I haven't been so excited since Rafael Rodriguez and Angel Villalona. From your medical (and baseball) perspective, what do you make of Gustavo Cabrera? He seems to be hitting and running with some authority at S-K but plays only once every few days. Do you think that's explained by his now two-year old injury, and if it is do you think there's any reasonable chance of further recovery?

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    1. I don't know if Gustavo's relative lack of playing time is due to health or performance. I will say this about Gustavo: There was a video interview of him about a year ago and he footage of him showing his hand to the interviewer. I have to say I am shocked that he has any significant function in the hand let alone able to play at all, let alone every day.

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  2. I think Mac still may not be 100% and they would prefer he gets better in the middle IRS than struggle at the bigs and then mess with his head long term in terms of confidence.

    Now for the questions, top 5 giants likely to be traded and % of possibility?

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    1. Mac is playing every friggin day in Sac, so what is this phantom injury you're all talking about that maybe exists. If you look at old comments from Sabes, he prefers guys to get a certain number of at-bats in Minors before they give you a full chance in SF. Last year Mac was below that number I believe by 150 at-bats roughly. Now with the injury and there are players I do think they regard higher. I believe Parker is better but who knows now with the injury as well & we know Slater has dibs on LF next year as he deserved to show both on defense & with bat.

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    2. Potential Trades? I kind of addressed this in my final Thoughts on What Went Wrong post, but let's see. One problem with prognosticating liklihood of trades for the Giants is the front office is not accustomed to being in this position this soon in the season. I sense they are struggling with what to do themselves.

      I think you start with the players who are free agents at the end of the season then move up the ladder of years of control. I think the Giants will be more interested in acquiring talent than dumping payroll, so it won't be a full teardown, which some fans seem to want but they may not like the outcome of.

      1. Nunez- Nice player, but he's a free agent at the end of the season so won't be around when the Giants are good again, even if that is next year. The Giants need to trade him even if the return is a mid-level prospect. Just have to hope he stays healthy long enough to convince other teams he's not an injury risk. 60%

      2. Nick Hundley- The return won't be more than a mid-level prospect, but the Giants don't need a good backup catcher the rest of the way and they even have nice backup plan in Fedex. Gotta think there is at least 1 contending team for whom Hundley would be a significant upgrade. 30%

      3. Denard Span- Giants don't have to trade him. He's having a good season, they do not have a ready CF replacement and he is relatively inexpensive for next year. On the other hand rumors have the Cubs being interested and if the return was right, the Giants would have to seriously consider it. 10%.

      4. Johnny Cueto- A month ago, Cueto was a lock to opt out of his contract. Now he's saying things like he'd like to stay in SF. I think it's really tough to find a trade partner willing to take on the risk of the opt in. If the Giants are going to assume that risk, it's better to keep him on the team and hope if he does opt in, his pitching improves next season. 10%

      5. Jeff Samardzija- I don't think the Giants want to trade Shark, but if some team bowled them over with an offer, they would have to consider it. 5%

      6. Sam Dyson- Relievers and good closers are at a premium right now. I think the Giants want to keep Dyson for next season, but if they got a great offer, they should consider it, even though they probably won't. 5%

      7. I could see the Giants being "buyers' at the deadline in the sense that I would not be at all shocked if they traded prospects for player(s) with contract control for at least 2-3 years, similar to the Matt Moore and Will Smith trades last year. 20 %.

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    3. We're all in the flailing around mode at this point, your explanation trades/buyers are as good as anybody else. I'm thinking if Sam Dyson has somehow (?) figured it out (using him the rest of the season)to give team a good idea as to where he is at along with Melancon and Will Smith returning in good condition (?) bullpen should be in pretty good condition next year. OK that's item 1 solved.

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  3. Is it possible that there is a reason that the Giants aren't playing Mac other than they've given up on him? Maybe an undisclosed health issue? What else could it be?
    On the "statistics can be silly" side:
    Through Bumgarner's 4th start April 19th, the Giants were .375 (6-10).
    Since that game, the Giants are .378 (28-46).
    Thus the injury didn't make any difference.
    Since Bum was 0-3, and Blach is 6-5, they are better without him.
    More silly? Continuing @ .378, the Giants would finish 61-101.
    If there is a selloff of "unneeded" players or undesirable contracts are shed, it could get worse.
    Scary.

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  4. 1. Do you think they'll trade Span? Have the Giants given up on Williamson & Parker? If so, what do you think the OF will look like next year (all three positions) after FA and/or promotions?
    2. Who will replace Nunez (FA) at 3B?
    3. Assuming Cueto opts-out, Cain is bought-out and Moore non-tendered, who will/should the Giants chase/promote?

    I'll take my answers off the air.

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    1. My bet would be Moore will be picked up for at least a year. If Rags can "fix" him a little, he's still a value for what he would cost to replace. OTOH, if someone really wanted him and gave up a mid Top 30 guy, why not?
      Do the Giants have enough beyond Blach to fill for 3 SP's? Might be a problem finding one.

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    2. i think moore could be moved via waiver trade, he might get a one-year prove it contract but, he has been a bust for the most part to me. he could be a good a's project next season and it may best for the giants to move on from him.

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    3. Cueto opting out appears to be less and less likely. Cain will likely be bought out. I don't think Moore will be non-tendered. Unfortunately, Ty Blach seems like a candidate for a pretty strong sophomore jinx like we saw from Hesto Presto.

      Organization is most depleted in pitching prospects so the Giants may need to trade for another starter or else sign 1 or 2 as FA's. They might be better off doing some dumpster diving and low cost FAs like what ATL did this last offseason than sinking more big $$$ into a major FA.

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  5. Better luck on both sides of the ball, rebound year for Crawford, minimal injury bug, a little growth from Belt, normalcy for Panik, someone at third, someone to fill in for CFer and RFer getting long in the tooth, a LFer, better health for the pitchers - even ALL OF THAT, how will the Giants make up 30 wins in 2018?
    That's drawing to an inside straight, it just ain't gonna happen.
    This problem isn't 2017 -- it dates to July 15th of 2016 when the "best team" in baseball, out of the blue, in full powerhouse mode, opened the 2nd half going 2-11 and losing 5 and a half games off a commanding lead in just 2 weeks!
    This 12-moon swoon won't be easily fixed. Atlanta couldn't, Philadelphia couldn't, the Yankees couldn't, no winners have had the success SF had in their run. It's more than reload -- it's rebuild a team getting old.

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    1. In addition to better luck, they need to find power at 3B and LF. If they do that, I think a 1 year turnaround is possible.

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  6. Thoughts on Miguel Gomez? He reminds Bochy of Pablo and he's hit well in the minors. Does he have the potential to make it in MLB?

    LG

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    1. Gomez has a similar statistical hitting profile to Pablo, so I can see why Boch would say that. He may be the best hitting prospect in the system, maybe even better than Arroyo. The question is where is he going to play? He's been playing 2B most recently in the minors. I don't see him forcing a trade of Joe Panik. If Hwang's bat does not come around by the first of August, I could see Gomez getting a chance at 3B, but in the longterm, he'll have to beat out Ryder Jones and Christian Arroyo there.

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    2. How do you think Gomez would work as a super utility player, DrB? He could be a good bat off the bench, but give rest for a number of positions (forgot, did he catch too?), and if we are good enough to make the World Series again, be the DH, if his bat is that good.

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    3. Gomez can definitely be a valuable bat off the bench. He's already showing that. Again, the question is whether he can fill in at a defensive position without becoming a big liability.

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  7. What do you think is wrong with Moore. When I watch him he's locating his 93 mph fastball and his nice curveball decently and getting tattooed on balls in good locations in the strike zone. I almost wonder if he's tipping his pitches.

    In terms of minor league starting prospects, what are your thoughts on Gregorio, Beede, and even Flores for next year?

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    1. I suspect Moore is tipping his pitches based on my observation that on several big hits off of him, the batters were swinging from the heels on pitches where you would not necessarily expect them to.

      Beede, Andrew Suarez and Gregorio are possibilities for next season. I think the Giants can afford to leave 1 rotation spot open for competition among prospects, but probably no more than that. I do not see any single pitching prospect you would feel confident in for next season.

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    2. I feel the same way: that the Giants can handle 1 open rotation spot, but not more. So Cain buyout should be that spot, and thus no need for all the talk about trading Samardzija and Moore. I would be OK with trading Cueto, but with his pitching and injury, unless he comes back healed and pitching GREAT in August, AND he passed through waivers (likely, because no team wants to take the chance the Giants just give him), that's the only way he'll be moved and still get us an interesting prospect.

      But maybe the Giants just want to move him and get rid of him and his contract. Given his semi-public complaints about the team this season, seems like he's been putting out bread crumbs regarding his wanting to move on, much like Sandoval. So it will be interesting how any deal turn out to be.

      Moore, according to recent interviews, said that his problems stemmed from losing his mechanics for his bread and butter pitches after incorporating a cutter into his repertoire. Perhaps that also made him tip off his pitches, that's certainly a possibility, that appears to have been what happened to Samardzija when he was with the White Sox.

      I agree with those prospects as possibilities for a starting position next season. I can also see a Wellemeyer type signing, where the Giants take a chance on a pitcher who had recent success but not in 2017, and hence why that pitcher is looking for an opportunity, to battle for that rotation spot.

      But if they hope to compete for 2018, they need to have at least 4 starter they can rely on for a good to good enough performance. We are there yet with Moore.

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  8. what would it take to get christian yelich? would span and arroyo be enough?

    LZK

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    1. If you look up Yelich's contract on Cot's Contracts, linked to the left, you will see why the Marlins won't be trading him.

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  9. Just read Cain is going to the bullpen now that Bumgarner is back.

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  10. Only so often do I fail to see any clear path out of a fix, but I don't see one here. The Giants seem

    (a) unable to sell off veterans to buy high-level prospects (burn down and rebuild) because they have too many veterans stuck with large, long-term contracts,
    (b) unable to throw more money at clear holes in the lineup for 2018 (already in luxury tax levels), and
    (c) lacking in advanced prospects that can clearly fill those holes in 2018.

    I suspect management will look at this and try to restructure as best it can to make another run in 2018 (an even year, if that still counts). In theory they should have a good starting rotation that will return to career norms and, if need be, work in one more rookie (Beede, Gregorio, Suarez). If they keep Dyson, they could have a very strong pair of late-inning relievers. So they may feel that if they an lay hands on some thunder -- even older thunder -- to handle the 3-4-5 spots in the lineup, they can return to contention. That would mean a combo of trading vets and prospects. The only vets with market appeal (aside from Posey and Bumgarner) at this point appear to be Nunes (as a rental), Panik (a cornerstone player), maybe Belt (he's got interesting numbers but he just isn't a 3-4-5 guy; the contract may be hard to move), Shark (ditto, though more reasonable), Cueto (that opt-out clause needs to be addressed). I suspect any prospect is available for the right trade. Panik is also a guy who has several potential young replacements (Arroyo, Gomez, Tomlinson). So there may be whispers of picking up a Josh Donaldson for power and energy (it'll be expensive). And they probably need a good CF - I could even see Span being kept to play LF with the right CF'er.

    So that's what I think they'll do -- trade Panik, a starting pitcher, maybe Belt, a couple of relief pitchers (Kontos at least), and some prospects all to pick up impact 3B and CF. Could get kind of painful. Might not be possible. But I don't see any other better path.

    Do you?

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  11. does matt cain go on the disabled list once melancon is activated?

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  12. Who do you think the top pitching prospect in the system is? Is it still Beede, even with his struggles? And do you think the giants could get a top 100 prospect from trading either cueto or nunez?

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    1. Beede is probably still the top pitching prospect in the system. Neither Cueto nor Nunez will bring back a Top 100 prospect in a trade. Cueto because of the contract and Nunez because he is just not that caliber of a player.

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  13. Your reaction to the Brian Sabean interview in Baggs recent article? Good read since Sabean doesn't hold back.

    LG

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    1. As usual, Sabes was all over the place and a often cryptic in his responses. It did sound like he was firmly on the side of selling and might be willing to go a lot further with trades than we might imagine if the return was right. Encouraging that he said the brass has a game plan for the trade deadline and they have put a lot of work into it.

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    2. Funny expression: "a lot of work into it" -- as they have been for 8 years but now on the other side of the trade!
      Even SF's "final year" contracts are useful for some -- there are a whole lot of teams on the cusp, including Chicago, St Louis, Milwaukee and most everyone in the AL. The 3 NL Central teams are fighting for 1 spot, perhaps 2 if Rox falter. One of them will get in and that team is NOT strong, not is Washington. They must improve and SF has some tested veterans.
      Would the Giants consider an in-division trade for anything other than a rental? That could come home to bite!
      With so many teams close, only 3 are near locks and have a playoff ready team, isn't this a seller's year? The Giants have been known to buy a rental, sometimes it's exactly what a team needs, and it is always win now if you can. SF last year showed why that is important (but didn't) and the Cubs are showing it this year (and will?).
      The missing piece -- for up to 15 teams, is there -- will they pull the trigger?
      This is as exciting as the Giants' buyer market has been for years -- put a price tag on everyone except, maybe P, B, and marginally C, and take it if it comes!
      I hesitate to disagree with you, Doc, I'm always wrong when I do, but I don't see making up 25 or 30 games next year. Maybe 2 years, certainly possible in 3, but rolling dice is like BABIP, sometimes you wins and sometimes you loses.

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    3. 1. Cueto does not opt out. Bumgarner is back to full health. Moore figures out how to not tip his pitches, Samardzjia continues to pitch well, Blach continues to pitch well. That's a pretty good rotation there.

      2. Melancon's arm heals. Dyson continues to pitch to his historic standards. Will Smith is back to full health. That is the foundation of a championship caliber bullpen.

      3. Giants find some power for 3B and LF. Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Span and Pence are all healthy.

      A lot of things have to go right, but I see a playoff caliber team there.

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    4. I agree. and picking up Dyson was a smart move. I like his stuff. This season is a disaster, but no need to blow up the team. I am optimistic for next year. BC in NV

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    5. Don't forget some OF upgrade across the board. Hernandez just got dinged by Bleacher Report as one of MLBs Top-10 underperformers of the first half. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2721096-mlb-metrics-101-mlbs-worst-players-of-the-1st-half

      Spann is past his prime in CF and only likely to get worse there, like Pagan degraded. Pence is going to be 36 and has become injury prone. I think we need more than 'just a LF' at this point.

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    6. Span is actually playing quite well right now. Pence has just one year left on his contract and is probably adequate for 1 more season. Prioritize LF and 3B for 2018 and then CF and RF for 2019.

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    7. Besides left field 3rd base /utility infielder has been very confusing, I think Kelby Tomlinson seems the likeliest candidate for the utility infield position ,as far as third base if were are not keeping Nunez I'd go with Hwang the rest of the year since Christian Arroyo is not available . I think Giants are/were trying to get younger at least in left field and since they seem to have a backlog of 3 basemen I'm also assuming that was there intent there also.Maybe everything will change here shortly with the trade deadline and the way the team has been playing.

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    8. I just read today that Kelby leads the team with 10 base hits which puts him 4th in all of MLB. I guess I'm surprised by that only because he seems to do it so quietly.

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    9. I think that is pinch hits, right?

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    10. Thanks Doc. That is correct.

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  14. Assuming the Giants attempt to trade for an outfielder (CF or LF, presumably) and a third baseman, any thoughts on possible targets?

    Eloy Jimenez is, alas, already gone. (Quite a load the Cubs just gave up for Quintana.)

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    1. Wow! The ChiSox are going to have a helluva team in a couple of years! They just keep on pillaging other teams' farm systems in these trades. I don't recall when I have seen a "selloff" managed as brilliantly.

      As for Giants trade targets, I have not gone through rosters of other organizations to draw up a list of potential targets. Priorities would be power hitters who can play LF or 3B and almost any type of high ceiling controllable pitching.

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    2. Wow, Cubs show no fear.
      Or a lot of it.
      So much for the "untrade-able" -- there was a lot of never happens around.
      Quintana eats a lot of innings and will help the Cubs -- is it enough?

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