Friday, July 28, 2017

DrB's Midseason Giants Top 20 Prospects +1

Several commenters have asked for a midseason update on my Top 50 Giants Prospects.  50 is very tough to do, but jotted down some names for a top 20 and ended up with 21.  I may be missing someone but it seems like there is a fairly clear drop-off after #21.  I won't post full demographic information and stat lines but will offer some brief comments:

1.  Heliot Ramos, CF, Rookie-  The most tooled up player in the organization who has not suffered a disabling off field injury in my recent memory.  Just 17 yo, he seems to already have a clue of how to put those tools to use and is off to a great start to his pro career.  Let's all just pray for this kid to stay healthy and far away from glass tables.  I know he has a long way to go, but his ceiling is at least a full order of magnitude above any other prospect in the system.

2.  Christian Arroyo, IF, AAA/MLB- Arroyo is just 5 AB's away from "graduating" and losing his prospect status, something that will almost certainly happen in September when he should be fully recovered from a fractured hand suffered in a HBP.  Raked the PCL early in the season.  While he struggled in his MLB debut, he did show flashes of intriguing talent and he's just 21 yo.  Odds on favorite to be the Giants starting 3B in 2018.

3.  Bryan Reynolds, OF, High A- Top Giants draftee in 2016 selected in the second round.  Got an aggressive placement in San Jose for his first full pro season.  Got off to a slow start in April but has hit well over .300 since.  Has not shown as much power or speed as hoped for.  The speed is unlikely to show up later, but there is probably still upside to his power.

4.  Chris Shaw, 1B/LF, AAA- 2015 draftee who is already in AAA and mashing HR's there.  The top power hitting prospect in the system, by far.  Positionally he's limited to either 1B or LF with lingering questions about whether he can adequately play either position.  If he can, the bat is good enough to play.

5.  Tyler Beede, RHP, AAA- 2014 Draftee.  Has steadily worked his way up the organizational ladder.   Still has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the system by a large margin.  He still tends to lose command of the strike zone when he unleashes his full arsenal and has to go back to a 2-seam/cutter approach to get back in the zone.  Some inconsistency this season has caused his stock to slip just a little.  Currently on the DL with a groin strain.

6.  Austin Slater, OF, AAA/MLB- Another guy who will likely lose his prospect status by the end of the season.  Slater mostly flew under the radar as he worked his way up the system but hit at every level.  Continued to hit in the majors and showed enough D to be a plus defender at either corner OF. Probably the odds on favorite to be the Giants starting LF in 2018.

7.  Steven Duggar, OF, High A(Rehab Assignment)-  Duggar missed the entire first half of the season and just recently started a rehab program and is now in San Jose.  Were it not for the injury, it might have been him getting the shot in LF instead of Slater.  Candidate for RF when Hunter Pence is done.

8.  Ryder Jones, 3B/1B/OF, AAA- Jones has stepped it up in AAA hitting for average and power and even stealing a few bags.  He has a great arm and has shown enough speed to play OF.  Struggled at the plate in a SSS MLB callup, but is still just 22 yo.  Not sure where he fits in a future Giants roster but has an intriguing tool set.

9.  Aramis Garcia, C, High A- lost most of last season to a freak injury(fractured orbit due to collision with fielder's knee while sliding to break up a DP.  He was reassigned to San Jose and has split time between C and 1B while hitting about .270 with power.  Garcia is a big kid with tremendous power potential.  Question is whether he will make enough contact at higher levels.

10.  Miguel Gomez, 2B, AA/MLB- The kid can hit.  Question is whether he will ever find a position. Mostly used as a PH since his callup.  Looked pretty good at 2B in a rare MLB start.  Has also played C and 3B in the minor leagues.

11.  CJ Hinojosa, SS, AA- Hinojosa has hit well in a tough environment in Richmond this year while splitting time between SS, 2B, 3B.

12.  Ryan Howard, SS, High A- Has hit and hit and hit for San Jose this year while playing mostly SS but also 3B.  Has not shown a lot of power which he will probably need if he does not stick at SS.  Will need to prove he can maintain BA at higher levels.

13.  Andrew Suarez, LHP, AAA- A finesse lefty.  Those types often struggle in the PCL. Suarez has been somewhat inconsistent but at his best looks like a future mid-rotation SP at the MLB level.

14.  Sandro Fabian, OF, Low A- Fabian has held his own and then some at age 19 while playing in what might be the toughest hitting environment in baseball.  In his last 10 games looks like he might put on a late season surge.  If he does, he could end up higher on my 2018 Top 50 list.

15.  Kelvin Beltre, 2B, Low A- Toolsy kid who has missed a lot of time early in his pro career to injury.  Has stayed healthy while holding down a steady starting 2B gig in Augusta.  A .270 BA might not seem impressive, but you have to remember the environment and how much development time he's missed.

16.  Jacob Gonzalez, 3B, Rookie- Luis Gonzalez' kid and the Giants second round draft pick this year.  Off to a strong start with plus power potential down the road.  Already seems to have a good feel for the strike zone.

17.  Garrett Williams, LHP, Low A- High ceiling LHP with control/command problems.  Those have improved a lot this season.  If he can maintain that, is a potential MLB mid-rotation SP or better.

18.  Melvin Adon, RHP, Low A- Hard throwing RHP who got a late start to his pro career, especially for an international prospect.  Still, the ceiling is there and he is showing progress in his first crack at full season ball.

19.  Seth Corry, LHP, Rookie- Giants 3'rd round draft pick out of Utah HS.  Solidly built with a low-mid 90's FB and seems to have more in the tank.  Has pitched well in limited opportunities so far.

20.  Malique Ziegler, OF, Short Season- My current favorite prospect in the system.  My nickname for him is "5-tool".  I have not seen him play but might have the #2 ranked "toolsiest" player in the organization behind Heliot Ramos.  Has played great for Salem-Keizer and should get a nice promotion next season.

21.  Alexander Canario, OF, DSL- This is my "+1".  I just did not want to cut off my list without including him, but did not think he quite deserved top 20 status.  Has been the regular RF for the DSL Giants and his stat lines suggest he is a true 5-tool talent.  Keep the name in mind.


  1. Nice list, I can see that for most of them.

    Ziegler is a new name for me. Anything more you can share about him?

    Canario too, if you got the time.

    1. Malique Ziegler OF. DOB: 9/8/1996. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 170 lbs. Drafted out of North Iowa Area CC in 2016 Round 22.

      2016 NIACC: .395/.490/.726, 22 HR, 31 SB, 43 K, 300 PA.
      2016 AZL: .290/.384/.419/4 2B, 2 3B, 4 SB, 10 BB, 15 K, 62 AB.
      2017 SS: .301/.374/.438, 7 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 17 SB, 15 BB, 33 K, 153 AB.

      As you can see, Ziegler put up video game numbers in JC ball. Just 19 yo when drafted which is the age of a lot of HS draftees. Put up solid numbers in is pro debut in Rookie ball. Got off to a blazing start in Salem-Keizer this year at age 20. Has slumped a bit in his last 10 games although he has still managed 1 hit in 7 of those 10 games. There are several videos on Youtube from his JC ball days. They show a tremendously athletic body and a nice powerful swing.

    2. Alexander Canario OF. DOB: 5/7/2000. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 165 lbs.

      2017 DSL: .301/.418/.507, 11 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 15 SB, 26 BB, 21 K, 146 AB.

      Canario is playing in his first pro season in the DSL after signing at age 16 in 2016. He has been the most consistent performer for this year's DSL Giants squad while playing RF every day. He is hitting for average with numbers indicating both power and speed. I know it's the DSL but the reversed K/BB is exciting too.

    3. Thanks! Yes, video game numbers! (Or Barry Bonds numbers? :) And yes, reversed K/BB is always exciting, especially if the player is on the youngish side (I presume).

      I just realized, that seems to be a theme this season, 5-tool players, first with Ramos, and you pointed out two more. We used to hear that a lot for prospects from management, but none were ever quite that many tools, but Ramos, Ziegler, and Canario at least looks like there is a possibility of it, if not probability.

      Thanks for the great info you keep pumping out, I appreciate it.

  2. My first thought was that we needed pitching.
    In the top 20, only #5, #13, #17,#18,#19 are pitchers. And the last 3 are in Low A lower.

    1. I agree. Organizational pitching is extremely thin. Maybe the Nunez trade will help?

    2. You left Gregario off your list? Was it the suspension or you don't think he's Top-20?

    3. Inconsistency, command, suspension. A little bit of everything. Probably would put him in the 20's in a longer list.

  3. With Arroyo at 3rd and Slater in left and a hope and a prayer the rest of the Giants find another plane to live in.

  4. Great list with accent on the young:
    3 rookie league
    1 DSL
    1 SS
    4 Low A
    9 of 21 with limited exposure.
    The other 12:
    2 @ 22 yo (Arroyo and Reynolds)
    4 @ 23 yo
    And 6 old men @ 24
    Dropping: Quinn, Gregorio, Stratton, Slania, Davis, Coonrod, Okert, & Arenado
    Gregorio @ 25 may well have been called up this year (without the suspension) and will have a shot for a 2018 slot. Doesn't he still have a fair chance of being a mid-rotation guy?
    Two others with ML experience are still "prospects" by definition:
    Stratton @ 26 had somewhat more than a cup of coffee and may be back this year, and Okert, also 26, may be back this year but how well they will do as major leaguers is a question.

  5. D'backs traded a nice 22-yo prospect with some upside IMO, LHP Gabriel Moya, for a controllable 26-year old backup catcher.
    That would have been a nice pickup for the Giants if AZ wanted a better, albeit FA to be, backup catcher (Hundley).
    Do you suppose they didn't want Moya to come back to haunt them as Giant if he develops?
    Although AZ wants to (and probably will) be a wild card, they face an uphill battle to get past the NLDS, and ought to think about maximizing their chances.
    Why give up a potentially valuable player for someone who really doesn't help? It's a waste.
    (I admit I may be overvaluing Moya but he seems to have upside.)

    1. Most teams are not going to trade within their division except as a last resort. A prospect like Moya is the type of return the Giants might expect to get from a Hundley trade.

  6. Too early to rank Shaun Anderson, the pitcher acquired from Boston as part of the Nunez trade? I believe he was the #18 Boston prospect. Would he be ranked lower in the Giants farm system?

    1. Yeah, I thought about it, but I just don't have a great feel for Anderson yet. I'll slot him in somewhere in my offseason list.