Friday, July 21, 2017

Game Wrap 7/20/2017: Padres 5 Giants 2

This game is Exhibit A for DrB's First Theory of Relativity which states, "in an environment that favors home run power, contact and gap power won't compete."  If this were 2014, the Padres probably would not have hit those 2 dingers off Madison Bumgarner and the final score might have been 2-1 Giants.  In 2017, those 2 dingers meant the Giants had no chance to win this game.  Key Lines:

Denard Span CF- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .289.  Span continues his offensive surge.

Eduardo Nunez 3B- 2 for 4.  BA= .300.  Hopefully Nunez is convincing trade deadline scouts that he's healthy and can help one of their teams.

Brandon Belt 1B- 0 for 2, 2 BB.  BA= .239.  The first 3 batters in the lineup got on base 6 times in 12 PA.  The next 3 batters reached 1 in 12 times.

Gorkys Hernandez LF- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .242.  I suppose the Giants feel they don't have anyone else to put out there, but as good as Hernandez has been, the Giants need power out of the LF position and Gorkys will never give them that.

Madison Bumgarner LHP- 6.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 3.57.  2 mistake pitches cost Bummy and that's been the story of the season for this pitching staff.  It's a league-wide trend but the Giants offense has not kept pace.

Kyle Crick RHP- 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 2.61.  Cricky did an impressive job coming in with runners on base in the 8'th inning and getting the last 2 outs.  He then hung tough in the 9'th inning for a scoreless appearance.  He just kept pumping fastballs that went 95-97 MPH and beating hitters who knew they were coming.   One thing I noticed in the 9'th is he stayed calm through 2 high pitch count AB's.  When I saw him pitch a few years ago in San Jose in a similar situation as the pitch count went up, he got more and more visibly frustrated and more and more wild.

One more thing:  How much does Kyle Crick look like a young Matt Cain?


Jeff Samardzija tries to break the Padres spell over the Giants tonight facing Trevor Cahill.


  1. 2 mistake pitches cost Bummy and that's been the story of the season for this pitching staff. It's a league-wide trend but the Giants offense has not kept pace.>>
    Right now, is this a question of MadBum still rounding into form or will he need to make adjustments to his approach given what you say above? In his previous outing, it was 2 curve balls in the same spot that ended up in the seats. It appeared the same location for at least one of the homers last night. i did not see a replay of the other.

    1. It's not so much a case of Bummy making an adjustment. He pitched OK. It's a matter of the Giants finding some power for their lineup so they can compete with the inevitable HR's hit by opposing teams.

  2. Has it really changed much?
    Earl Weaver's First Theory/prescription for winning was: “pitching and three-run homers. Pitching keeps you in the games. Home runs win the game.”
    The Giants were built for contact and gap power BUT they aren't scoring runs. They don't win many games scoring 3 or less runs.
    They are 23-11 when scoring 5 or more runs. They're 6-4 when they score 4, 29-15 scoring 4 or more.
    Is it too much to ask for contact and gap power to score 4 runs? In their worse playoff year this century they won 87 games and averaged more than 4 runs per game. This year they aren't scoring.
    You and Weaver are right: you do better with power -- didn't they call the ever-winning Yankees the Bronx Bombers? -- but that doesn't mean you can't win my "moving the line" which the Giants aren't doing.
    The corollary to a baseball truth: if you don't score you don't win is if you don't score much you don't win much.
    Pitching can keep you in a game but without 4 runs. you'll lose more than you'll win. (Exceptions to this exist, but don't they prove the rule?)
    When Bochy chose Hundley to pinch hit for Tomlinson last night, he actually lessened the chance of winning. That was Bochy channeling Baker: I've got a hunch.

    1. It's all relative. Sure, 3 run HR's win games but if 3 run HR's are down around the league, a contact/gap power approach becomes relatively more valuable

      The 2017 Giants are hitting HR's at about the same rate as the 2014 Giants. The difference is in 2014 their opponents hit about the same number as the Giants in H2H competition while this year opponents are hitting about 1.5 times as many. Now, it's a fair question to ask if the increase in opposing HR's is due to poor pitching but opponents HR's have increase approximately equal to the increase in league-wide HR's, but the Giants have failed to increase their HR rate apace.

      In summary, in a low HR environment, contact and gap power is a relative advantage. In a high HR environment, it is a relative liability.

    2. Whiteyball. Pitch, speed & defense (OBP) to win games with some pop at the #3 or #4 spot like Jack Clark or George Brett. He did this because he managed in big parks like Kauffman (Kansas City) and the old Busch Memorial (St. Louis).

      As for the OPB vs HR issue, they have the same multi-season correlation to winning as they both hover around 0.42 in any one season. Sometimes one gets ahead of the other, but that's just baseball and it's constant fluctuations.

  3. Cleveland should definitely trade for Hundley.
    The Yankees should try to get Belt.
    The Angels should try to get Panik.
    The Red Sox are a great fit for Nunez.
    The Twins could use Span.
    Cueto and/or Samardzija could help many teams, Milwaukee for one may well go from 1st to out, and at least half a dozen teams need depth.
    The Nationals should trade for Strickland -- that WOULD be funny!
    Not sure anyone has a realistic need for Pence, including the Giants.
    If the Giants help Colorado, it should be with someone who will be a free agent!