Someone requested a post on a projection of what the Giants might look like 5 years down the road based on current talent in the organization. With the minor league season all but over and an off day for the MLB club yesterday, I have an opening to throw something up here pretty much off the top of my head.
First of all, I'll just say these types of projections are incredibly difficult to make as some of the better prospects at some position may be in the deep lower minors and not quite ready by 2020, as incredible as that may seem. Other very good prospects may be blocked by incumbents at the MLB level. Just one example: Buster Posey will almost certainly be playing 1B by then, so what do you do with a prospect like Chris Shaw? And of course, and exercise like this does not account for possible future trades and FA signings. With that out of the way, here's my projected 2020 Giants roster:
Catcher: Aramis Garcia
First Base: Buster Posey
Second Base: Joe Panik
Third Base: Matt Duffy
Shortstop: Christian Arroyo
Left Field: Chris Shaw
Center Field: Mikey Edie
Right Field: Mac Williamson
Bench: Miguel Gomez, Austin Slater, Hunter Cole, Johneshwy Fargas, Rando Moreno
Starting Pitchers: 1. Madison Bumgarner. 2. Mike Leake. 3. Tyler Beede. 4. Phil Bickford. 5. Andrew Suarez.
Closer: Chase Johnson.
Bullpen: Sam Coonrod, Jake Smith, Martin Agosta, Josh Osich, Rodolfo Martinez, Adalberto Mejia.
Notice the lineup is way too heavy on the RH side. Bummy's contract is up on 2019. I think the Giants will find a way to extend it. I think Leake will sign a 5 year contract this offseason which would put him in the final year in 2020.
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No Lucius Fox in the bench DrB?
ReplyDeleteI thought about Lucious Fox as well as some other young studs in the DSL and AZL. I have him projected to be in the upper minors in 2020. Maybe I should do a 2025(yikes!) roster. Fox would definitely be on it.
DeleteBtw, is Lucius Fox expected to play somewhere this winter?
DeleteAlan
My expectations are that Fox will take part in instructional league this fall in Arizona then spring training then extended spring training and make his official pro debut with the AZL Giants in June 2016.
DeleteDo you anticipate a change to a 26-man roster by the 2020 season?
ReplyDeleteDid I put 26 names down? Maybe I counted wrong. Count me as not in favor of 26 man rosters as teams will just use the roster spot to add another pitcher in an era where hitting needs a boost.
DeleteDrB, I like what you have put together. The only thing I would have like to see is some risk taking with some of the current and former DSL guys such as Raffi Vizcaino, Manuel Geraldo, Victor Concepcion, Mecky Coronado, Deiyerbert Bolivar, Richard Rodriguez or Gustavo Cabrera (if he can ever play again after that injury). I am pretty confident there is at least 1-2 everyday players in there. They are all pretty young and have time to develop into something special. Are there any you think could be eventually on the 2020 list?
ReplyDelete2020 is not as far away as it seems. I think any of those guys would have to move pretty fast to be starters on the 2020 team. Maybe if I did a 2022 or 2023 team or like I said before, a 2025 team? Again, I would project those players to be in the high minors in 2020 unless one or two of them move faster than I anticipate.
DeleteI can respect that. A player like Brandon Belt played 2 years in minors before a callup but he played until his Senior year in college. You are right, it probably would take 4-5 years with these guys if at all.
DeleteBlackburn has succeeded at every level despite his critics and just seems like someone who knows how to win. I would slot him in as the #5 starter.
ReplyDeleteI kind of came down to Blackburn vs Suarez. I went with the lefty.
DeleteI agree about Blackburn but also hard to discount Suarez. Kurrasch should be in the mix as well. Blach, could be but my guess is that he'll move on by then. I'd also have Kyle Crick in the bullpen over Jake Smith.
DeleteKurrasch? Really? Crick has a high ceiling, but a low probability of ever achieving it due to extreme wildness.
DeleteAlso, from what we have seen from Tomlinson, I think he will find a way to carve out a long and productive career as a utility player, so he could bump one of the bench players or be part of a rotation between the majors/AAA with one of the bench players.
ReplyDeleteIt basically came down to Tomlinson vs Slater/Moreno. I think Slater has a much higher ceiling with the bat and Moreno gives you a switch-hitter and maybe a bit better D. Close call.
DeleteDrB, since we are talking "what ifs", who are the 2 people you would bring in to fill the rotation vacancies next year? Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Jake Peavy are slated probably to fill up 3 out of the 5 slots assuming Cain does not have anything wrong with him. So, slapping the GM hat on who would be the 2 guys to bring in to fill out the rotation that are realistic pickups. I know you are high on Mike Leake. I myself would want David Price (Johnny Cueto would be my next choice) and Yovani Gallardo. However, I am warming up to the idea of Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija. I just don't like the idea of Leake and some guy like Heston or another scrub who didn't work out somewhere else like Bud Norris. Heston had his moments this year but I think he is a good spot starter or maybe take over for Petit. We need 2 decent additions to make a run next year.
ReplyDeleteIf Leake will sign for a reasonable price, say 5/$75 or $6/90, He would definitely be my first choice. Yes, I like David Price a lot , but I'm guessing he's going to cost close to Max Scherzer money, if not more. Not my money, but I'd really hate to see the Giants locked into a contract like that. Cueto just seems too iffy healthwise to be spending big bucks on. Zimmermann and Samardzija will both probably cost draft picks in addition to big, long contracts. I think the Giants should hold the line on not signing FA's who cost draft picks.
DeleteAnyway, if Leake signs quickly, then they should turn their attention to the best FA SP's who won't cost a draft pick. Fister, JA Happ, Ian Kennedy are some names that come to mind. Maybe even Dan Haren for 1 or 2 years?
I am not sure if Leake and one of those guys make the Giants a playoff team. However, much of the losses resulted from injured players. I think if they go with that rotation they will probably need an upgrade at either LF or CF. Aoki was great in the first half and Pagan was good for the first few months but after that it was average to below average at best. Blanco provided some decent backup innings. If the Giants aren't looking at Cespedes maybe there could be a trade for someone like Ben Revere.
DeleteFister sounds really good. Fits the Giants way of pitching (pitching to contact, sinkerballer that really fits well in AT&T) and can get Leake-ish money. It's like getting 2 good pitchers for 1 ace in the wrong side of 30. I honestly would love to have Price but there are a lot of teams who'll shell out their pockets for him in the Scherzer-range like what you said. WIth that in mind, I am happy that MadBum anchors our rotation and getting 2 sinkerballers in NL plus the arrival of Beede and other SPs.
DeleteRevere sounds good for us Mr. Roger. A guy that injects the speed in the contact-oriented, moving-the-line lineup of the Giants while playing good CF D. Cespedes is a 99% lock for the Mets (I bet he loves hitting there are their main guy which is what he was in Oakland and I think he loves to be the guy leading the pack and not being thrown behind the spotlight like the rise of Donaldson and protecting Miggy). The lineup is sound when fully healthy. I think it's just a matter of luck, great depth and getting them hot altogether.
My vote is for Doug Fister. Bring the Merced boy home!
DeleteVery nice post DrB & commenters.
NWGiantsFan
DtF!!!
I would love to have Cespedes, but not at the price he is going to command. Revere has no power and no arm. I would much rather re-sign De Aza and/or keep Aoki and of course Blanco.
DeleteIt is not fair to complain about how poorly Aoki did after two HBP broke his leg then caused concussion issues, especially after the latter, which is still not well understood or diagnosed.
Deleteogc, if you are responding to Roger above, I don't think he was singling out Aoki so much as saying LF has been a problem in the second half. Much as I loved what Aoki did in the first half, I get the feeling the Giants just might not pick up his $5 M option at the end of the season. It's looking like Byrd's $8 M option is going to vest and Bochy has been pretty outspoken about liking what he's seen from De Aza. I could see the Giants letting Byrd's option vest and then quickly re-sign De Aza and let Aoki go. Whatever the case, I don't think they are going to be out there competing for the likes of Yoenis Cespedes. Of course, one of these years, the Giants are going to realize that Blanco is their best LF and will give him the starting job.
DeleteNo Strickland? What's the thinking there? Gone somewhere else as a F/A closer?
ReplyDeleteI don't know. Injury? Trade? Goferitis? The Giants do seem to keep relievers they like around longer than most teams, but I'm just betting Strickland doesn't hang around that long for whatever reason. Take your pick.
DeleteChase Johnson excites me as a staring pitcher prospect, but he sure seems like he could make a great closer with that 97-99 mph fastball and hard curveball. Imagine, a guy who (for some odd reason) wasn't even fit to close games for Cal Poly closing games for the Giants. Talk about a chip on the shoulder!
ReplyDeleteCove Chatter
5 years committed to Leake, who has been an average pitcher throughout his career, is a long time. I'm not sure Blackburn wouldn't be just as serviceable over the next 5 years for a fraction of the cost.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it is fair or accurate to dismiss Leake as an average pitcher. He has the 57'th best xFIP in MLB over the past 4 seasons among qualified starters which makes him a #2 starter in a weak rotation and a #3 in a strong rotation. He is also the youngest pitcher in the current FA class just finishing his age 27 season. He's been durable making at least 30 starts for 5 years in a row. A 5 year contract would give the Giants his ages 28-32 seasons
DeleteAs always, it depends on the price, but if you could get 2 Mike Leakes at the cost of 1 David Price(and I actually think Leake might get less than 1/2 of what Price gets), I would take the 2 Leakes.
He just seems like more of a 2/24 type than 5/75. I am good with bringing him back to eat some innings around MadBum, Peavy, and a healthy Cain, but I don't want him becoming a aubrey huff, blocking younger, better players.
DeleteBlackburn looks like a good candidate to stick in the rotation. If one of Beede or Bickford can come through... I'm also high on Chase Johnson though.
Let's get real here, Bryce. If you seriously think you are going to get a Mike Leake caliber pitcher on the open market for 2/$24 M, you simply have not been paying attention.
DeleteAs for Blackburn, what do you really think his odds are of ever having a 4 year run where he puts up the 57'th best xFIP in all of MLB? Yes, he put up nice numbers in the the PCL this year, but there is a reason why scouts are not ranking him higher on prospect lists. I think he may be underrated and may become a solid MLB pitcher, but to blithely say he would do just as well as Mike Leake is a classic case of homer fans grossly overrating their own prospects.
In this market Leake is definitely going to get 5 years. I am guessing 5/85. I like Leake but I am more scared if the Giants were to sign him what other scrub they would pick up. Signing another ace like David Price would soften the blow for me on the remaining pitcher. I would be okay with a 2 year deal for Haren in that scenario. I like the ACE scenario the best because we could find a pitcher on a 2-3 year deal to compliment him as opposed to signing a guy like Fister into his late 30's. A 2-3 year deal will cover the rest of Peavy and Cain's contracts and prevent no log jam for the wealth of pitchers we have. I would say in 2-3 years Beede, Blackburn, Suarez, C Johnson and J Johnson could all press the hand for a spot. Maybe even guys like Coonrod and Biagini.
DeleteI agree with DrB that we should sign pitchers that do not have draft compensation tied to them. If the season ended today we would be drafting #19. That number could end up being in the 15 range based on what other teams do in FA. I haven't evaluated the 2016 draft class but I bet there is decent talent there.
Again, I love the idea of David Price too, but not at the price he is going to cost which will up in Max Scherzer territory.
DeleteFister has had a down season. I think he may take a short deal to try to rebuild his value and where better to do that than pitching on the West Coast?
if you crunch the Giants numbers ( including guaranteed raises for Posey, Pagan, Peavy, Bumgarner, Romo and Blanco ; arbitration increases ( Crawford, Belt, Kontos, Gearri and Petit0 and option increases ( Casilla and Aoki), the Giants should have something between $21-22M to spend on free agents in 2016. ( This assumes the Giants don't increase the total payroll and enter into the luxury tax arena).
DeleteWith $21-22M , the Giants could go after one of the very high priced pitchers, but nothing else, or they could resign Leake and either Byrd or DeAza.
If they were willing to bite the bullet and release Casilla, Petit and Sanchez, they could have an additional $15M to spend on free agents.
Should be an interesting off-season watching how the Sabean/Evans team works the roster and the payroll
I doubt that $21-22 M is enough for Price or Greinke unless you backload the deal.
DeleteAnd the Luxury Tax is calculated based on average salary over the contract, so it probably does not matter if it's backloaded in terms of Luxury Tax.
DeleteNot that it's the decision at hand, but I would certainly rather have Price than Leake+Byrd/De Aza. And I would certainly rather than Price + Estrada (for example) or even Price + Heston/Blackburn, than 2 Leake-types.
DeleteBut it's not that simple. It's not just a choice of Price vs 2 Leakes for 1 season or even 5 seasons. Do you want the Giants to be still paying David Price $15 m 20 years from now, probably at least 10 years after he has retired? Because that is approximately what the Nationals are stuck with in the Scherzer contract.
DeleteAgain,
Gutsy post. I like it.
ReplyDeleteI'm late, but can I play? For 2020... We all know this will be a silly exercise. Hey Dr. B, I'm not mocking you, we understand how many variables factor in. Who knows? Maybe Chris Lincecum is our pitching coach and Rags is managing NYY. Maybe Bochy is paid 15M/year to start the MLB expansion into France. lol. Maybe we have the DH in the NL (ick). No, but more seriously...
ReplyDeleterotation: Bumgarner, Shohei Otani, Price, Bickford, Coonrod
bullen: Hengerber Medina, Kendry Melo, Carlos Diaz, Gardeck, Osich, Slania. Jake Smith closer?
Arozarena/Yusniel Diaz CF, Panik 2B, Posey 1B, Reddick RF, Vizcaino Jr. 3B, Hunter Cole LF, Fox SS, Miguel Gomez C
bench: Angomas OF, Jebavy UT, Arroyo IF, Chris Shaw 1B/DH, Ben Turner or Aramis Garcia C.
If Sabean/Evans are still managing things, maybe we have some vet. Pick a guy who is 29-32 years old right now. Probably not a Boras client. Maybe he's a free agent in 2019 or for 2020. Maybe we trade for somebody with only 1-2 years left on a contract. So... Not Miguel Cabrera or Joey Votto. But a once-elite type. Like Randy Johnson, Huddy, Peavy, Beltran. Or a guy more like Morse, Tejada, Burrell, etc. Bautista, Donaldson, Reddick, Arrieta, Price, Greinke? I dunno. But I'd practically bet that if I name these 6 current MLB guys that it would be about even odds against naming any 40 of our prospects as to which has more on our 2020 Giants team. YMMV.
For the record, I'm not saying Duffy or Strickland fail. Maybe they've become so expensive through arbitration that we've traded 'em? Could be lots of reasons. We also could see Pence remain a Giant until he retires, I've no idea. Interesting to think of all the different scenarios though. Cheers.