Friday, September 25, 2015

Down on the Farm: DrB's 2015 Giants Top 50 Prospects Review 1-10

It's accountability time at When the Giants Come To Town as we start our reviews of DrB's 2015 Giants Top 50 Prospects.  Remember, this is a REVIEW of the 2015 list, not a new list for next season!  We will give the season stat line and a brief capsule summary of each player's season and then a verdict of whether their stock is up, down or stable.  Today's post starts with the Top 10:

1.  Tyler Beede, RHP.  High A:  2-2, 2.24, 57.1 IP, 9 BB, 37 K's, GO/AO= 2.44.  AA:  3-8, 5.23, 79.1 IP, 35 BB, 49 K's, GO/AO= 1.87.  

The Giants gave Tyler Beede a relatively aggressive, but expected assignment to San Jose at the start of his first full pro season.  Then they reportedly limited him to 2-seam FB's and cutters for the first several starts.  That formula seemed to help his command issues and he became a high contact/groundball machine.  I caught his last High A start in San Bernardino where he seemed to be using his full arsenal of pitches and he was absolutely dominant.  After his promotion to Richmond, he returned to his high contact/GB ways, but his command gradually deteriorated as the season wore on.  In the game I watched, his command deteriorated late in the game as he had to use more effort to maintain velocity.  Remember this was Beede's first full pro season and the first time he's had to take the ball every 5'th or 6'th day for 5 months.  I'm going to chalk his late season ebb to fatigue and watch next spring with great anticipation.  Stock- Stable.

2.  Andrew Susac, Catcher.  MLB:  .218/.297/.368, 3 HR in 133 AB.

Susac hurt his wrist at the beginning of the season and never fully recovered.  He had his moments, particularly early in the season, but finally shut it down and recently underwent surgery on the wrist.  He is expected to be ready for spring training.  Wrist injuries can be problematic long term, though.  He will likely be the backup catcher next year if he is healthy.  Stock- Graduated/Stable.

3.  Kyle Crick, RHP.   AA:  3-4, 3.29, 63 IP, 66 BB, 73 K's.

Crick was once again plagued by extreme wildness and moved to the bullpen.  He had more success there, but the BB ratios were still ugly.  Stock- Down.

4.  Christian Arroyo, SS.  High A:  .304/.344/.459, 9 HR, 5 SB in 381 AB's.

Arroyo, the Giants somewhat polarizing draft pick from 2013, struggled in his full season debut in Augusta in 2014.  He recovered after being sent to short season ball in Salem-Keizer after recovering from a hand injury.  So, there were questions about how ready he was for High A ball at age 20.  He answered those questions by hitting, hitting and hitting some more.  Just a highly successful, consistent season.  Stock- Up!

5.  Mac Williamson, OF.  AA:  .293/.366/.429, 5 HR in 259 AB.  AAA:  .249/.370/.439, 8 HR in 189 AB.

Big Mac had no trouble with the AA Eastern League after missing most of 2014 with TJ surgery. While his BA slipped after a promotion to AAA Sacramento, he maintained his OBP and his IsoP was up significantly.  The Giants OF is going to be tough to break into next season, but I expect Mac to destroy the PCL and force the issue before the season is over.  Stock- Up.

6.  Mikey Edie, OF.  Rookie AZL:  .290/.369/.319, 10 SB in 138 AB.

In a season where the Giants had trouble keeping their young international position prospects healthy, just completing the AZL season was a big plus for Edie.  That he was able to hit .290 is a plus.  He's not a big kid, but I think he has some power potential.  Stock- Stable.

7.  Keury Mella, RHP.  High A:  5-3, 3.31, 81.2 IP, 26 BB, 83 K's.

Mella was having a reasonably successful season for San Jose when he was traded to Cincinnati for Maike Leake.  He's a promising arm to lose, but has a high effort delivery that some observers feel might make him susceptible to injury.    Stock- Traded.

8.  Clayton Blackburn, RHP.  AAA:  10-4, 2.85, 123 IP, 32 BB, 99 K, GO/AO= 1.59.

Blackburn got himself into noticeably better shape and had a tremendous season for Sacramento winning the PCL ERA title in one of the toughest pitching environments in all of baseball.  Finished the season with 2 dominant starts.  His velocity remains borderline for a MLB pitcher and he depends on command and keeping the ball on the ground.  The Giants are likely to have a rotation filled with veterans next spring, so Blackburn will likely have to start the season back in Sacramento and wait for an opportunity, but he has little left to prove in the minors.  Stock- Up.

9.  Daniel Carbonell, OF.  AA:  .146/.173/.194 in 106 AB.  High A:  .279/.327/.419, 6 HR in 258 AB.

Carbonell just couldn't get any traction in Richmond and was sent down to San Jose where he improved his numbers as the season went along.  He was recently DFA'd off the 40 man roster and cleared waivers, so he's still in the organization.  Stock-Down.

10.  Matt Duffy!, 3B.  MLB:  .299/.339/.429, 10 HR, 11 SB in 531 AB.

These numbers are not complete as the MLB season continues.  Matt Duffy is one of the great stories of 2015.  He won a job as a utility IF out of spring training, but when starting 3B Casey McGehee got injured and struggled, Duffy got to play 3B because, well, the Giants didn't have anyone else to play it!  He hit, and kept hitting with rapidly improving defense at the position and finally forced the Giants to give him the starting job and to release McGehee.  It looks like in the Duffman, the Giants have their starting 3B for the next few seasons at least.  Stock- Graduated/Up! Way Up!


  1. Duffy's not just a good line-drive, high-average hitter. He's also shown some defensive chops. In advanced fielding stats, Duffy has put in the best 3B play since Sandoval's 2011 campaign. And with Sandoval that was, for all intents & purposes, a fluke since he's not come close to repeating it.

    And, Duffy's been very good on the basepaths and his base running stats are very good. So, really, he' doesn't have any significant weaknesses or downsides as a player.

    So he's really been quite the story. The 'little engine that could' if you will.

  2. Stock: Up! Way Up!

    I needed some prospect cheer after a couple of abysmal San Diego games. Thanks Dr B. And thanks for another great season giving the Minor's highlights.

  3. Williamson looks like he could have a very good bat...what is the scouting report on him though as an outfielder? He looked a little scary out there last night, hopefully just nerves.

  4. How's Arroyo's arm?