The Giants split their squad today to face a split squad of D'Backs both teams home and away. The D'Backs hammered the Giants in both games. The silver lining is that most of the damage was given up by pitchers who likely do not figure into the team's 2015 plans. Key Lines:
Home Game(D'Backs 12 Giants 2):
Travis Ishikawa(1B)- 2 for 4. BA= .500. Travis is making a statement that he wants a roster spot in the early spring.
Mitch Delfino(3B)- 1 for 2. BA= .500. Delfino won't make the final 25 man roster, but he is putting his dibs in for the title 3B of the Future.
Jarrett Parker(LF)- 1 for 2. BA= .500. The numbers are severely against Parker, but an outside chance to be 4'th OF while Pence is out.
Christian Arroyo(SS)- 1 for 1. BA= .800. Another kid who won't be on the final 25 man roster, but his prospect stock is catching serious helium here.
Jake Peavy- 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 9.00. Another veteran starter getting his work in. We'll start worrying if his spring ERA is still 9 after the Bay Bridge Series.
Erik Cordier- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 0.00. The numbers are working against Cordier too. He is out of options, so a trade might be in the offing. Am I the only one who likes him better than Strickland?
All in all, the team gave up 5 unearned runs. 6 of the 12 runs were given up by non-roster invitee Curtis Partch who gave up 6 runs total with 3 ER.
Away Game(D'Backs 10 Giants 5):
Gary Brown(CF)- 1 for 3, SB(2). BA= .308. Brownie is making a big push for a roster spot. The numbers are against him too. He needs to sustain this success through the end of spring training and Juan Perez or Travis Ishikawa have to face plant, which they aren't doing so far.
Gregor Blanco(LF)- 1 for 2, 3B, BB. BA= .375. So far, Blanco is outplaying Aoki. Is anybody still surprised by that?
Brandon Belt(1B)- 2 for 4. BA= .455. Belt is just belting out the basehits. Pivotal season coming up for him. Giants desperately need his bat with Pence out to start the season.
Juan Perez(RF)- 2 for 4, 2B, SB(2). BA= .364. Lil Juan P is not conceding anything in his fight for a roster spot. Has incumbency over Gary Brown so if it comes down to those two, it's Juan's to lose.
Guillermo Quiroz(Catcher)- 1 for 3, HR(1). BA= .286. Two out of Posey, Susac and Sanchez would have to be hurt for Quiroz to make the 25 man. He is strictly an insurance policy.
Ty Blach- 3 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 2 K, GO/AO= 4/1. ERA= 22.50. Blach is the type of pitcher who often has trouble in Cactus League conditions. Might have similar trouble in the PCL, though.
Josh Osich and Dan Slania pitched 1 scoreless inning each.
Hector Sanchez has a thumb sprain and is expected to miss 2-4 games. Must be pretty mild, because that would be mighty quick healing of a sprain.
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Doesn't Strickland have a much better K/BB ratio than Cordier in the minors? Why do you prefer Cordier? Do you think Strickland's HR problem can't be solved?
ReplyDeleteThere is a whole lot more to pitching than minor league K/BB ratios. Based on my personal observations from seeing both pitch in the majors, admittedly small sample sizes, Cordier throws a bit harder and his a whole lot less hittable. I think Cordier's bouts of wildness are more manageable than Strickland's gofer balls which can suddenly lose you a lead or put you behind late in a game. At least with Cordier, if he walks a couple of batters, you can take him out and still have some hope of getting out to the inning. Right now, there is no way I would allow Strickland to face the tying or winning run at the plate under any circumstances.
DeleteGoing to be interesting how they solve the Cordier, Kontos and Machi situation. Personally, I really like Kontos and if he ends up leaving, I think he will be the best of the three.
ReplyDeleteBilly Baseball
I like Kontos too, but if it comes down to Kontos vs Machi, I think you have to go with Machi based on their respective performances over the past 2 seasons. Personally, I'd prefer to keep Kontos than a 7'th starter(Vogey) if all the starters are healthy.
DeleteOn Brown, i would actually favor him over JP. We know what the latter can do. While an amazing defensive substitute, he didn't add much to the offense (neither from a BA or SB stand point). I think it is time to move on from that if Brown is remotely competitive. On the "face plant by Travis", didn't he sign a big new contract or is it not guaranteed? I'm not sure they'd throw $1mm down the drain. But, if they could, just based upon early performances, I'd rather go Brown over Travis as the 5th--I think he adds an element that might become useful if either Blanco or Aoki go in the crapper and is better long term for us given Pagan. Plus, that gives Parker a chance to hit every day in the minors with Carbonell. But everyone looks like Willie Mays in the first week of spring.
ReplyDeleteAt one point last year, I was really down on Lil Juan P. Love the kid, but you could triple his BA and still not crack the Mendoza Line! But then, he really turned it around in the postseason and made some huge plays. He also outplayed Gary Brown at almost every stop in the minor leagues. So, if they end up with approximately equal spring performances, which is the case right now, who wins the smackdown? Brown's pedigree as a former first round draft pick and 7 figure bonus or Juan P's track record in the minors plus his clutch performance in the postseason? Having observed the Giants brain trust over the years, I would not want to bet against the guy who has incumbency and postseason performance on his side.
DeleteI don't think Travis Ishikawa's contract is fully guaranteed, but if he keeps hitting this spring, he'll be in the Opening Day 25 man roster.
Doc, I totally agree with you on who I think makes it. At this point, I see our reserves as Travis, Blanco, Susac, Arias and EA. If I'm ranking after that, I'd say JP over Brown. I guess my "hope" is that Brown gets the shot though. While I complete understand that JP has performed better, I have always thought Brown was the higher ceiling guy if he just listened to the staff. Coupled with that, I'm hoping his bulk up and change in hitting (which appears to be dividend creating) is a reflection of just. If that is true (BIG if), then I think you go with Brown. Do I think that will necessarily happen? Only if Brown v. JP is a clear and convincing win for Brown.
DeleteI agree that Brown probably has the higher ceiling than JCP.
DeleteIf he's listening to the coaching staff and is performing, what do you do?
DeleteHow do we encourage others to learn?
I have to say, I'm getting just a bit tired of this meme that when Gary Brown is going good, he's listening to the coaches and when he's going bad, he's uncoachable with the flimsiest of evidence to back it up. Just this offseason he gave an interview in which he basically said he has to do it his way and let the chips fall where they may. Now that he's gotten off to a hot start in spring training, he's suddenly reversed course and is doing it the coaches way? How do we really know to what extent there has been an impasse between Gary Brown and "the coaches". If anything, I think the evidence points to him trying to implement some suggestions of the coaching staff and it didn't seem to work out for him.
Delete@ BLSL : in that case you hold up Perez as an example of a guy you came late to organized ball and worked his tail off learning en order to catch up and pass others.
Delete- daveinexile
You're right, Doc, we don't know. That's why I wrote 'if...,' going by what PiLamBear stated above.
DeleteAnd Dave, you have a good point about working hard to catch up and pass others. You want to reward that as well. All good stories. In that case, let your performance speaks for itself (and if applicable, if you have any options left)
Looks like Panda is starting to talk:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/sandoval-not-hard-all-leave-giants-red-sox?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo
Looks like he felt disrespected here and I think it probably goes back to 2010 the way they kept him off the playoff rosters. I do think it strange that most Giant players, current and previous, rave about the Giants as an organization so Panda definitely got bent out of shape over something. I am really surprised by his comments about not missing anyone other than Bochy and Pence though. Doesn't look like he had any intention of coming back and was using the Giants to drive up his contract. Either way, time for him to go it looks like, should be interesting if the grass is greener for him in Boston.
Billy Baseball
I don't think there is any new news here. Based on his brother's comments about "no stinking weight clauses," I would say Pablo was tired of the Giants constantly harassing(in his opinion) him about his weight and conditioning. Now we'll get to see if letting Pablo deal with his weight in his own way will work out for him and Boston.
DeleteSince the Giants reputedly enjoy great clubhouse "chemistry," Sandoval's dismissing all the people he played with and for, except Bochy and Pence, seems gratuitously nasty. How simple and more politic it would have been for him to have blamed the tart tongue of Sabean and left it at that! And I emphasize tongue because according to his own testimony, the Giants made him a very healthy monetary offer, though not enough to salve his savage pride. (Maybe "Panda" should be spelled, after its Boston accent homonym, "Pander," for the treatment he apparently demands.)
DeleteI was sorry we didn't trade him a year ago; I was glad he left our team; I am more glad of his leaving now that I see these slighting comments; and I look forward to his Red Sox career with impious malice.
Well, that is a bit stronger than I would put it. Sandoval's contributions will be missed on several levels. I don't expect Casey McGehee to make any of us forget Pablo's good times. When he was in any semblance of shape, he could do things on the field that nobody else could do. The problem was, Pablo was unlikely to keep himself in any semblance of shape once he had that contract in hand. I think the Giants knew that and Pablo knew the Giants knew it. The Giants reasonably wanted some protection by not going too long on the contract and having a weight clause in it. Pablo didn't like that. Boston was willing to take a risk on Pablo being responsible for his own weight and conditioning. We'll see how that works out for them.
DeleteWe will surely, as you say, miss what Sandoval can do, and I agree that McGeehee can't do what Sandoval can. So do the Giants, I suppose, since they offered him only a one-year contract. But I wish we had traded him so that we had something other than a supplementary draft pick for him; and not knowing what we might have received for him, I'm unwilling to concede, as others might, that we wouldn't have had the 2014 WS ring without him. I was glad to see him go because his childish unprofessionalism made him underperform, as well as making it likely that he will underperform still more now that he has a fat contract. Generally I felt and feel that he's untrustworthy, and given that baseball is by nature vulnerable to injury, slumps, and unpredictable bodily betrayals, I believe that extra untrustworthiness is well worth being rid of. The weight is crucial in and of itself, but it's also symptomatic.
DeleteI'll cheerfully admit that my malice comes not only from what I've just said about Sandoval but also from my strong distaste for his romper-room personality, which so many of my fellow Giant fans gleefully cherish. As Carmot would say, YMMV.
I am thankful for his work the years he was with us, and I wish him the best in Boston.
DeleteIf he does well, good for him, and if not, we have our own team to focus on.
I don't think it's conceding anything that the Giants would not have won the WS in 2014 without Sandoval. I think it's about as close to a proven fact as you can get to something that is unproveable! For me, the Panda thing got old too, but he certainly added a certain personality to the team that a lot of fans loved. So yeah, there will be a lot about Sandoval that I and I think the Giants will miss, but I also think the downside of signing him to a big, longterm contract was greater than the likely benefit.
DeleteUnprovable but an alternate outcome was always more probable than winning. The margins were too close, the differences too small to imagine winning without Sandoval. Winning with him was beyond imagination before Washington AND LA and ALL the best AL teams were out of it. And even if the Giants had gotten to the WS, without Sandoval, somehow, it would have taken very little to lose Game 7. And against any of the other AL teams? Maybe if we had 0 Sandovals and 2 or 3 Bumgarners.
DeleteMy explicit point was that I wasn't willing to concede that we wouldn't have won without him BECAUSE I don't know whom we would have had in his stead if we had traded him a year ago. Had the Giants received players for Sandoval and had replaced him, through another trade or two, with Headley (not yet a Yankee) or Zobrist, then they might well have done as well as they did with the 10th or 12th best third baseman by WAR last year, Sandoval. No one was suggesting that they would have been likely to win without him or a replacement for him, but I can't fathom why one would think that with a plan in mind, new bargaining chips acquired in a Sandoval trade, and the actually or potentially available market as of winter 2013-14, the Giants would have been unable to get a at least an extra 3 fWAR to replace the 3 fWAR they got from Sandoval. He happened to do especially well for us in the postseason, as did Ishikawa and Perez, but as Ishikawa and Perez suggest, a good many competent players may come through when they're needed to; one doesn't extrapolate from very small samples for them or for Sandoval.
DeleteI would put all that in the category of armchair fantasy GM'ing. There is not a shred of evidence that any of those deals were available at the time. The Giants made the decision to roll with Pablo for 1 more year then let the free agency thing take care of itself. I believe it was a calculated decision on their part rather than poor foresight and planning. The result was another championship. Can't argue with success. Flags fly forever!
DeleteDr. B,
ReplyDelete1) First a question: I heard on the radio that you can't judge what a player will do based on Spring Training. Agree or disagree? Elaborate?
2) I am unsure about what this statement means when it says "The numbers are against.." (see above about Jarrett Parker, Erik Cordier, Gary Brown) Apologies ahead of time if I am not up to speed about this terminology.
Thanks for clarifying.
I don't have the exact numbers on this, but I believe there is some correlation with spring training and regular season performance but it is very weak. Baseball history is full of stories about players who tore it up in spring training then had terrible regular seasons and vice-versa. I believe the correlation between spring training performance is greater for pitchers than for hitters.
DeleteAs for the numbers thing, I am simply referring to the numbers of players competing for any given roster position and who has a leg up because of factors like previous MLB experience and who has options left(if you still have an option, it makes it easier for the team to send you back to the minors because there is no risk. If you are out of options and the team wants to send you down, they have to put you on waivers first and another team can claim you, so ironically, guys who are out of options have a greater chance of being kept on the major league roster).
In the case of Gary Brown, he is competing for 1 permanent OF opening and 1 temporary(because of the Pence injury) one, but against 2 guys, Perez and Maxwell, who have prior MLB experience. In the case of Cordier, there just is not much room on the pitching staff with a total of 12 pitching roster spots. There are the 6 starters plus Petit which leaves just 5 openings for pure relievers which would seem to be already filled with Casilla, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez and Machi.
Those are the numbers I am referring to. The number of available roster spots and the players competing for them.