Many things about the first week of a baseball season can be ignored. There is always a lot of noise in the statistic pages mostly due to small sample sizes. A batting average can be .100 one day and .300 the next. Teams can go from first to last place in 2 or 3 games. There are many ups and downs in a 162 game season and with expanded playoffs, when you finish 162 the season that counts is just starting....at least for the teams that make it in. There is an old saying that you can't win a championship in the first week of the season but you can lose one.....or maybe it's the first month? I believe a team can lose it in the first week.
I'll never forget the first 4 games of the 1969 season. It was the first year of divisions and the Giants started the season with 4 games in Atlanta. They came way 0-4. The Braves went on to win the division by 3 games over the Giants then lost to the Amazin Mets in the NL Championship series. That opening series decided the season! Ever since, I have always been super aware of the importance of getting off to a strong start... or at least not getting off to a bad one.
So the Giants are 5-1. That is a strong start. As always, no guarantees but there is a strong statistical correlation between going 5-1 in the first 6 games and getting into the postseason. That's thought #1. What else can we say about the first week?
The Pitching is Good. #5 in MLB in Team ERA. #7 in Walks. #9 in GO/AO. One trip through the rotation and every member pitched well. Webb pitched better than well in his second start.
Wilmer Flores is Healthy. And a healthy Wilmer Flores is a darn good hitter. Oh, and Wilmer Flores is not a small man! His statcast adjusted height is 6'3" and I never would have believed it.
The Defense is Good. Zero errors. The only team that can say that. 1 SB. 1 WP. 15 GIDP which is tied for #7 in MLB. Not sure about zone ratings and other more advanced metrics, those are very sample size dependent, but they sure pass the eye test, especially on the left side of the infield and left field.
The Lineup is Good.....but with some yellow flags. Wilmer Flores and Heliot Ramos have carried the team. They have 7 of the team's 10 HR's and 17 of 30 RBI's. Jung Hoo Lee has been a good table setter out of the 3-hole. Whether that is sustainable depends on Wilmer's knee staying healthy and Ramos cutting down on the K's. The good news is players off to slower starts like Willy Adames should pick up any future slack and Luis Matos looks ready to break out and claim more playing time.
Can't wait for the next game!
I wholeheartedly agree with your analysis. I think I am really encouraged by the crisp baseball being played.
ReplyDeleteThere are some quibbles on the edges. Surprised that dropped popup by Roupp wasn't counted as an error. There also has been a little messiness on the pitch clock, but overall much cleaner than last year.
I mostly am looking forward to seeing the team at home. I feel like the last few seasons there have been some stretches where the Giants would slug on the road win a bunch of games, then come home to completely silent bats. So I want to see if that is the case here. (Though I know actually over the course of the season in 2023 and 2024 they were better at home though).
- Fan
Roupp stopped before he got to the ball.
DeleteHe actually was the only one who could have caught it.
Chapman started quite deep and tried to get there, but just too late.
Not sure where Huff was puffin'.
It wasn't an error because nobody who had a reasonable chance to catch it touched it. Chapman hardly deserved an error on it. Hey! Maybe we could write a song about it like the Hiller, Haller, Miller song.
DeletePro sports major leagues used to insist that Atlanta's a "Western" city
ReplyDeleteI must say that the timely hitting seems much better so far. It would still be nice to have a big LH bat off the bench but it appears that Jake Lamb and Bryce Eldridge need more seasoning. It appears that this season the FO will focus on defense and pitching and less on churn and offense. Will be interesting to see how this team competes with the other California NL West teams...
ReplyDeleteI think with better plate discipline, Matos will hit for average.
ReplyDeleteThey would be in first place in any other division at this point
ReplyDeleteLove that they seem to have a set lineup. It drove me nuts having 110 different lineups for the season.
ReplyDeletePerhaps evidence that FZ was, in fact, dictating lineups and in-game substitutions?
DeleteI think it's a great thing that the type of "Giant bseball" that Buster wanted and they were playing during ST has carried over seamlessly to the regular season so far..And the one guy that gets forgotten or overlooked and is a big part of this TEAM success so far is MELVIN and his handling of the ENTIRE roster. So early but hat's off to him...
ReplyDeleteAs far as the players, happy with all of them so far but. of course. still worry about those same yellow and red flags for the offense
Great to see both emerging Kids (Matos, Fitz, Ramos, Birdsong/Roup, RROD) and vets coming off bad years (Flores, DOVAL, YAZ) getting chances and succeeding .
SteveVA
Your point about Melvin suggests rumors that FZ was dictating lineups and in-game substitutions last season might be true. Pretty sure Buster believes it's the field manager's job to look at the data then make the on-field decisions.
DeleteZaidi suggesting lineups or not is no longer relevant to 2025. He said he didn’t do it but whether he did or not in the past doesn’t matter as long as he is not doing it now.
DeleteMaybe a point of historical interest and context for what we see now?
DeleteZaidi claimed not to dictate lineups or game situations but others in the organization, Will Clark and possibly Buster felt he was influencing managerial decisions at least by proxy or by roster construction. Traditionally, it is the field manager's job to make those kinds of decisions based on what he sees in the field and in the clubhouse. Often in the previous regime, there would be moments that did not make sense from a traditional baseball perspective but more from analytical. I could understand it coming from Kapler but not from a traditional manager like Bob Melvin. Zaidi was going on interviews in the fall saying he was not making the dugout decisions. My point is that whether he was making decisions or not really doesn't matter to me as long as Bob Melvin could be free to do his thing.
DeleteStill not sure I understand why you say it doesn't matter if it possibly explains a significant difference in how Melvin manages the game compared to last season.
DeleteZaidi is no longer in the organization. Some people like Will Clark have an axe to grind with him even after he is gone but its probably healthiest to take an indifferent approach. If Zaidi says in interviews that he did not influence the on-field decisions, there is no reason for him to need to lie about it. Krukow said that he did work hard and took his job seriously so I give him credit for that.
DeleteThe change in Melvin's style might not necessarily be solely attributed to Zaidi leaving. The other change the Giants made was to reclaim the clubhouse (NBC Sports April 4), fill it with dynasty memorabilia, and, in doing so, move out the analytics department. Under Zaidi, the analytics people had direct contact with the field managers and even showered and changed clothes in the clubhouse. The analytic department in the clubhouse was like a guy moving out from college and losing his bedroom to his sister and its not a few analysts, it is on the order of dozens. With all those analysts physically out of the picture, Melvin does not have those multiple people bending his ear all the time and Buster freed Melvin to manage. They also have hired a baseball strategist (Pike Goldschmidt) to assist Melvin so it helps him filter all the information better.
The change to the clubhouse is impressive and inspiring. Now it contains the WS trophies (and room for a fourth, said Webb), lots of pictures, and is now called "Mike Murphy's Clubhouse".
OK this is the last comment I will post on this subject. Buster has said he prefers to delegate decisionmaking and let the field manager make on-field decisions. That would imply that Melvin's management this season is how he prefers it. Since it's a dramatic change from how he managed last season it tends to lend more credence to Will Clark's assertion that somebody above Melvin was giving him orders on a micromanaging level. Not sure why it's irrelevant to comment on that.
Delete5-1 gets them third place in the Western Division . We know things will even out, but still….
ReplyDeleteLMWJ batting .059 (with no walks?) is another one of those that will adjust up.
It’s fun to watch the young guns learn and grow. George Kontos on the post-game TV show explained how Roupp is still learning the right mix of pitches and use his curveball to accentuate the sinker. Birdsong seems more mature as a pitcher, doesn’t he? And Doval is showing much better control of his slider. This is fun.
ReplyDeleteRoupp and Birdsong both experienced some command inconsistency but lots to like from both of them.
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