Saturday, June 6, 2020
Scouting the Draft: Where Do Stars Come From?
So, here's a bit of original "research" if you can call it that. I decided to look up the top batting and pitching performers by fWAR in MLB for 2019 and see where they came from in terms of the draft. Here's what I found:
Batters(Top 60): College- 22, High School-17, JC- 2, International- 19. Breaking it down into top 30 and #31-60, the ratios are essentially the same.
Pitchers(Top 60): College-26(including top 5), High School- 20, JC- 1, International- 13. If you take out the top 5, which is admittedly an extremely important subset, it's very close to even between college and high school.
There is likely a greater comfort level with college players since there is a longer observation period, but good scouts should be able to judge who is the best player regardless of whether they are HS or college.
Conclusion: Trust your scouts and draft the best player available!
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