Scouting the Draft: Comping the Draft- Patrick Bailey

Comps are not a good way to analyze players but it sure is fun!  Even Farhan Zaidi can't seem to resist as he's been quoted giving out comps to several players the Giants drafted this week.  He laid a Yasmani Grandal comp on Patrick Bailey which gives poor Patrick some pretty big shoes to fill.  Still, it's a lot of fun.

Gotta admit, whenever I read about a switch-hitting catcher, it gets my heart beating a bit faster.  There's something almost mystical about a good hitter who can mash from both sides of the plate.  Just the idea of having the upper hand in any pitching matchup is pretty darn neato.  Historically, there have not been many really good ones and the number who can do it equally well from both sides of the plate is even smaller.  When you add in the relative rarity of a plus hitter out of the catcher position, it's like the holy grail of hitting!

I looked up a list of all-time catchers ranked by fWAR on Fangraphs.  There are not too many who were switch-hitters, although I probably missed some.  Let's take a look at some of the better ones.

1.  Ted Simmons.  fWAR= 54.2.  Drafted out of HS by the Cardinals, Round 1 pick #10 overall.

.285/.348/.437, 8.8 BB%, 7.2 K%, .152 Iso.

Ted Simmons is one of my favorite players of all time.  He was overshadowed in his career by Johnny Bench who hit for much more power, but Simmons was an incredible hitter.  He was also a great athlete and versatile as he played catcher, 1B, 3B, LF and RF over the course of his carer but mostly catcher.  He was more of a contact hitter with a decent walk rate but an extremely low K rate.  He had 20+ HR power at the peak of his career but was more of a gap-power hitter.  He was just elected to the HOF but won't be inducted until 2021 due to COVID shutdown.  He was in my HOF a long time ago.  Still the gold standard for switch-hitting catchers. He is the #11 highest career fWAR all time for catchers.

2.  Yasmani Grandal.  fWAR=  32.6.  Drafted out of college by the Reds in round 1, 12 overall.

.241/.348/.446, 13.9 BB%, 23.5 K%, .205 Iso.

Grandal is still playing and just signed a 4 years contract at age 31 with the White Sox so has a chance to add significantly to his career fWAR total.  Grandal is a classic Moneyball type hitter with high BB%, high K%, low BA, high Iso.  He has averaged right around 30 HR's per 600 PA's for his career.  He also has strong defensive numbers including high framing stats which is something that was not measured when Ted Simmons played.

I looked up Grandal's college stats just for fun:

2008:  .234/.358/.452, 6 2B, 7 HR, 22 BB, 31 K, 14.38 BB%, 20.26 K%, 153 PA.
2009:  .299/.414/.599, 11 2B, 16 HR, 33 BB, 37 K, 13.75 BB%, 15.42 K%, 240 PA.
2010:  .401/.528/.721, 24 2B, 15 HR, 57 BB, 35 K, 20.14 BB%, 12.37 K%, 283 PA.

Since we are comping here, let's also look at Patrick Bailey's college lines:

2018:  .321/.419/.604, 8 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 28 BB, 32 K, 187 AB.
2019:  .288/.390/.513, 17 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 41 BB, 43 K, 236 AB.
2020:  .296/.466/.685, 3 2B, 6 HR, 17 BB, 18 K, 54 AB.

Bailey's stat lines were better early on, but Grandal had the huge breakout his junior season.  We won't know what Bailey would have done over the course of his junior season.  He almost certainly would not have hit .400 like Grandal but the OBP and SLG% were right there with Grandal's in an extremely SSS.  Bailey's reputation for catcher defense is strong, so the Grandal comp does not look too farfetched.  Grandal has been crazy valuable over the course of his career.  Grandal stands at #37 in career fWAR all time for catchers.

3.  Mickey Tettleton.  fWAR 28.5.  Drafted Round 5 #118 overall by the A's out of college.

.241/.369/.449, 16.5 BB%, 22.8 K%, .208 Iso.

Hailing from Oklahoma, The Mick was, in fact, named after The Mick and was also a switch-hitter.  Tettleton's offensive profile is closer to Yasmani Grandal than Ted Simmons.  He played mostly catcher but also 1B, OF and DH.  He did have some positive defensive seasons but I don't think they measured defensive stats the same back in Tettleton's day.  Overall he had a poor defensive reputation.  I was not able to find his college stat lines.  He stands at #47 in catcher career fWAR.

4.  Victor Martinez.  fWAR= 26.9.  International signee.

.295/.360/.455, 8.9 BB%, 10.9 K%, .160 ISO.

VMart's batting line was more like Ted Simmons with low K's, high BA and more gap power although he hit 32 HR's one season.  VMart was a terrible fielder at every position, especially later in his career and was really more of a DH, although it appears he was a decent defensive catcher early in his career.  He ranks #57 in career fWAR for Catchers.

5.  Jason Varitek.  fWAR= 21.6.  Drafted Round 1, #14 overall.

.256/.314/.435, 10.5 BB%, 20.8 K%, .179 ISO.

Slightly above average defensive catcher.  More inconsistent offensively.  Had 3 consecutive seasons of 3.5+ fWAR at his peak.  Offensive profile more like Grandal and Bailey.  As for his college stats, Georgia Tech has had a lot of very good catchers, but Varitek was probably the top statistically as he hit over .400 for all 3 college seasons and is the school career leader in hits, doubles, HR's RBI, Runs and Total Bases.  Varitek ranks #76 in all time catcher career fWAR.

6.  Matt Wieters.  fWAR= 17.4.  Drafted Round 1 #5 overall.

.250/.313/.411, 8.3 BB%, 19.1 K%, .161 ISO.

I bet you did not know Matt Wieters' put up a 5.7 fWAR in his 3'rd MLB season in 2011.  He followed that up with a 4.5 in 2012 but then tailed off to 2.0 in 2013 and then suffered a series of injuries that have largely derailed his career.  He also has gone from being a major plus defender to being a liability, I think mostly due to framing data.  He is still playing, now with the Cardinals but is widely considered an enigma.  #100 in all time career fWAR for catchers.

Others:  Todd Hundley fWAR= 14.2, #141 overall.  Alan Ashby fWAR= 13.1, #147.  Chad Kreuter fWAR= 9.1 #194.  Hank Conger, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Dioner Navarro, Ryan Doumit.

Conclusion:  Given the similarities in college stat profiles and the strength of conference play, Yasmani Grandal is probably the closest comp to Patrick Bailey, as comps go.  That is probably his absolute ceiling.  If his career comes close to resembling Yasmani Grandal's, it's a great pick.