Friday, June 12, 2020
Scouting the Draft: Day 2 Review
It seems like the Giants draft strategy for Day 2 was to look up all the players DrB profiled and ranked in his draft board, then make sure to pick different ones! Gotta admit, there was more than one WTF moment as I checked the Draft Tracker through the afternoon. As I start the Day 2 recap, I honestly don't know what my opinion will be in the end, so let's get right to it and break it down.
Round 2 #49.
Casey Schmitt 3B, College(San Diego St.). B-R, T-R, 6'2", 200 lbs.
2018: 1-1, 0.28, 32 IP, 8 BB, 24 K, 9 Saves.
2019: 3-3, 3.77, 43 IP, 16 BB, 44 K, 8 Saves.
2020: 0-1, 3.75, 12 IP, 5 BB, 10 K, 6 Saves.
2019 CCBL: 1-0, 2.45, 22 IP, 10 BB, 26 K, 3 Saves.
2018: .264/.302/.346, 12 2B, HR, 11 BB, 29 K, 182 AB.
2019: .315/.415/.450, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 25 BB, 30 K, 200 AB.
2020: .323/.386/.452, 4 2B, 2 3B, 7 BB, 13 K, 62 AB.
2019: .248, 6 2B, 5 HR, 12 BB, 20 K, 129 AB.
Casey Schmitt is a college Closer. The Giants need pitching in their system...wait, what? Casey Schmitt is also a legitimate 2-way player so of course the Giants drafted him as a 3B/hitter. Although he has some pop in his bat, when you consider he played for San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference, it's pretty easy to think he might be a better pitcher than hitter. The Giants think there is more power to unlock here and he's got the size to back that up. The history of 2-way players is not great, but maybe Schmitty will beat the odds? So where did Fangraphs have him ranked on their board? #87. MLB Pipeline had him at #117. Now, rankings can get it wrong, but it seems like maybe this was an underslot target for the Giants?
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Compensation Pick #67.
Nick Swiney LHP, College(North Carolina St). 6'3", 187 lbs.
2018: 4-0, 3.52, 30.2 IP, 18 BB, 37 K.
2019: 7-1, 4.61, 56.2 IP, 31 BB, 95 K.
2020: 4-0, 1.29, 28 IP, 6 BB, 42 K.
2019 CCBL: 1-0, 2.70, 3.1 IP, 1 BB, 5 K.
Nick Swiney looked like he was breaking out as a SP with NC State before the shutdown. His FB was a tick slower as a SP running 89-93 MPH, but he backed that up with a "wipeout" curveball and added a changeup MLB called a "revelation" with "deceptive fade." In his first two collegiate seasons, his FB topped out at 95 MPH as a reliever. The size and scouting report reminds me of Noah Lowry. Memba him? Gotta wonder what Lowry would have accomplished if his career hadn't been derailed by a degenerative condition in his cervical spine. Andrew Suarez is another comp that comes to mind. This is probably good value at this slot as Swiney as a couple of prominent mock drafts placed him late in the first round. Still, I was kind of hoping for more than a high floor/low ceiling college pitcher in this slot. And Will Wilson, Patrick Bailey, Nick Swiney, what's with the North Carolina St obsession?
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Compensation Pick #68.
Jimmy Glowenke SS, College(Dallas Baptist). B-R, T-R. 5'10", 185 lbs.
2018: .336/.432/.546, 16 2B, 3B, 10 HR, 31 BB, 26 K, 229 AB.
2019: .328/.429/.467, 16 2B, 6 HR, 31 BB, 45 K, 244 AB.
2020: .415/.458/.509, 2 2B, HR, 5 BB, 5 K, 53 AB.
2019 CCBL: .296, 6 2B, 2 HR, 135 AB.
The name alone screams of scrappiness. One of the better hitting college shortstops who profiles more as a utility player. Best tool is hit, but with very limited power projection and not enough range to stick at SS in the pros. Probably an underslot target here.
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Round 3 Pick #85.
Kyle Harrison LHP, HS. 6"2", 200 lbs.
We'll start with the PG scouting report. FB velocity 93. "Electric performance at PG National running his FB up to 93 MPH in two dominant innings." "Solid, athletic build with long arms and legs for his height and some room to fill out. Easy and fluid delivery from a low 3/4 arm slot.....loose and clear arm action....hides the ball well....low effort. Tight slurve type breaking ball that is tunneled well with his fastball and resulted in weak swings. Nice changeup with some sink to it."
Harrison made one start in 2020 before the shutdown and reportedly maintained 93 MPH velocity into the 5'th inning.
Prospects Live had him as their top ranked HS lefty. They mocked him to the Nationals at #72 and called him "an absolute steal" there.
I guess my comp is Seth Corry with a lot better control and command at the same stage. If he's a better version of Seth Corry, that's actually amazingly good! My concerns would be 1. His ceiling seems a on the limited side for a big overslot deal and 2. What was the opportunity cost to the Giants in getting the bonus pool money to work out?
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Round 4 Pick #114.
R. J. Dabovich RHP, College(Arizona St). 6'3", 215 lbs.
2019: 7-1, 4.75, 53 IP, 26 BB, 47 K, 3 Saves.
2020: 0-0, 0.77, 11.2 IP, 9 BB, 17 K's, 4 Saves.
2019 CCBL: 1-0, 3.31, 19 IP, 5 BB, 29 K.
Big bodied college closer with two plus pitches and 97 MPH FB velocity. High ceiling if control/command issues can be corrected, but that is never a given. Dominated the Cape Cod League.
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Round 5 Pick #144.
Ryan Murphy RHP, College(Le Moyne). 6'1'', 190 lbs.
2018: 7-4, 2.60, 90 IP, 16 BB, 81 K.
2019: 7-4, 4.07, 90.2 IP, 24 BB, 98 K.
2020: 2-1, 3.91, 23 IP, 4 BB, 36 K.
Small RHP starter for a DII school. Lower end velocity on the FB but has a full 4-pitch mix with good command. These types usually have a ceiling in A+ or AA, but we'll see.
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I like Kyle Harrison, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed with the overall talent haul here. I considered this a deep draft with a great opportunity for the Giants to turbocharge their farm system. I feel they whiffed on that opportunity.
Contrast this with what the Cardinals did, and I think we would all agree the Cardinals have a record of draft savviness, as they took high ceiling HS talent Masyn Winn and "Tink" Hence in rounds 2 and 3 and then Ian Bedell, a personal fave of mine in round 4.
Gotta admit it was a strange draft all around for me as more than a few players who I had ranked fairly high fell to the lower reaches of the draft or went completely undrafted, I assume due to signability issues.
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Thanks, Doc, but ...
ReplyDeleteDid the Giants just not want to spend money?
Saving for a rainy day when high priced Free Agent talent fills the rotation?
Gonna sign 100 $20,000 "free agents"? (That's only $2 Mill!)
The Cardinal tweeters are ecstatic. Giants not so much.
At least for another year or so we have to try to believe our FO knows what it's doing.
Apropos of nothing beyond MLB Owners insisting they cannot afford more than 50 or so "regular season" games at full pro rated salaries, this moneyinc.com article on The 20 Richest MLB Owners in the World (https://moneyinc.com/the-20-richest-mlb-owners-in-the-world/) wrote a bit on each of them from "poorest" (2 with less than a billion bucks) and ending with our deep pockets Johnson @ $6.4 Billion (with a B).
Funny, the friendly chat on all this dough through #2 John C. Malone- Atlanta Braves- $5.1 Billion, it has this to say about our guy:
"Topping the list of the richest MLB team owners is Charlie Johnson who has a level of wealth that many may describe as excessive. With a personal net worth of $6.4 billion, it is just surprising that he hasn’t bought half the teams in the MLB."
Double take: $5.1 billion is not excessive but $6.8 is? No matter how you shake it, a billion dollars is a lot of money, though perhaps not as much as it used to be...
Haha I had the same reaction as you watching this draft. Who?!? Why?!!
ReplyDeleteHonestly, this has got to be the least pumped I've been watching the Giants draft in a few years. I look at the names and the draft guys' breakdowns and I just see vanilla.
I hope they come out swinging with UDFAs
I really like the Swinney and Harrison picks. I think those two were 1st round/comp level. Athletic lefties with some juice, great offspeed stuff and room to fill out are prototypes I love. So if the reaches were to pay out bonuses then I think it was worthwhile.
ReplyDeleteThe head scratcher was Schmitt. Even if it's below-slot that just felt like we could do better.
Glowenke is your typical college infielder pick. Dabovich seems like a worth college reliever. Solid picks. Murphy seems very much like a below slot agreement to get Swinney and Harrison locked in.
Overall, I think it fits together as a solid group. I think if the Schmitt pick were a little better, it'd look like a great class.
Must admit I was hoping for a couple guys with high ceilings - boom or bust guys. Seemed like the Giants were in a position to take some risk. Now, it could be that both the HS guy (Harrison) and the NC State lefty (Swiney) turn out to be solid MLB starters. If that happens, the draft is a success. But, I sure don't see any potential All-Stars in the group.
ReplyDeleteDr. B,
ReplyDeleteAgree with your day 2 assessment, particularly hate Schmitt at 2, who seems destined to be middling in both roles and may not offer much in the way of power (0 HR'S in 70 PA's this year). Hope I'm wrong.
I agree it was an odd draft with a lot of underslot and not much overslot.
ReplyDeleteThe Ryan Murphy pick was especially odd. He's not even on BA's top 500. Either he's a super-secret sleeper and will be a great story or they just blew off the pick entirely (shades of Michael Tucker) to save money.
On your question "what's with the North Carolina St obsession?" the answer appears to be that the new scouting director Holmes is from GA (and still lives there) and was the A's scout for GA and the Carolinas, so he's been following all these guys for years. This suggests a familiarity bias.
Thanks for your workup on all this ~ it made the draft much more interesting.
I just listened to Murph and Mac's interview with Mike Krukow this morning about the draft class. He was pretty excited. He watched video on all the players drafted and had positive things to say about each one. He said that the Giants were looking for players who can command both sides of the plate, both as hitters and as pitchers. Of course he is going to be positive about what the Giants did - but he had favorable comments about each of the players drafted. The comment was also made that when the Giants were scouting Wilson last year at North Carolina State, they saw both Bailey and Swiney and when they were scouting Hunter Bishop last year they saw Dabovich. APGiantsfan
ReplyDeleteThanks for the commenents, everybody. In fairness, most drafts rise or fall on the first round pick. I have absolutely no problem with Bailey and think it was a solid pick. If Harrison also turns into something, it's a great draft just with those two. If Swiney is a healthier version of Noah Lowry, then it's a stupendously great draft.
ReplyDeleteWe'll just have to see how it develops over the next 2-3 years.
Roger Munter likens Schmitt to Matt Chapman -- what's not to like there!
ReplyDeleteThat would be a W-I-N!
Roger goes on:
Schmitt is a legit two-way prospect and it will be fascinating to see how the Giants handle his development. In the ideal world, Schmitt might one day repeat for the Giants his incredible performance in the final game of the Cape Cod League championship series when he hit two HRs and pitched a scoreless 9th inning to deliver Cotuit the title (and take playoff MVP honors for himself). Though Schmitt showed up lower on a lot of rankings, he was a legit 2nd round kid who dropped somewhat due to surgery for a torn meniscus that slowed him in the spring.
Roger likes the draft more than most:
https://rogermunter.substack.com/p/meet-the-new-draft-same-as-the-old?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo4ODI0NzU0LCJwb3N0X2lkIjo1NDc5MjEsIl8iOiJrcTNYRiIsImlhdCI6MTU5MjAwMjc3NCwiZXhwIjoxNTkyMDA2Mzc0LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMzAzOTciLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.V0ibpifGJVUjYIKuIV3s_6LYL_S0H93einUVKzHHUmc
Thanks Doc for your great coverage of the draft. It made it more enjoyable to follow. This draft has the potential to be a good one (7 picks in 5 rounds) but we won't know for another 3 years. I find the Bailey pick intriguing, above average defensive catcher, who is a switch hitter. Heard one of his previous baseball coaches told him the quickest way to reach the majors is being a Lefty pitcher or a switch hitting catcher. How many switch hitting catchers are in the majors now? After reading the comments by Michael Holmes on the day 2 picks, they sound intriguing too, so you never know! Look forward to following the progress of these players in the minors and the upcoming free agent period next week.
ReplyDeleteI cannot comment on if he was the right choice for round 2, but it will be a lot of fun to follow Schmitt. Talk about filling up the stat sheet.
ReplyDelete2K ?? did he strike out or did he strike someone out?
Farhan Zaidi made a couple of interesting comments on KNBR. He said Giants scouts compared Bailey to current MLB switch hitting catcher Yasmani Grandal. I like the pick. Giants scouts saw a lot of Team USA under 18 team last year. A Giants scout interviewed the players and asked who the best player and teammate was on the team full of high draft picks, Harrison's name came up alot which they liked a lot. Harrison sounds like another intriguing pick..
ReplyDeleteI've been rummaging through the filing system in my brain for comps to these drafted players hoping I could make it into a post. Grandal is the obvious one for Bailey. Then I looked up Grandal's college junior year stat line. OMG! I'm still trying to process that into some kind of post.
DeleteSwiney is easy. Noah Lowry is the best but Andrew Suarez is right there too.
I'm trying to come up with ideas for Schmitt as a 3B. So far, not much to work with there. Glowenke, Dabovich and Murphy are toughies too. I'll keep working on it. Anybody with suggestions is welcome to post them in a comment here.
Nick Swiney - Drew Smyly
ReplyDeleteChris Schmitt - poor man's Matt Chapman or beggar's Nolan Arenado, one can dream if you squint into the sun
Jimmy Glowenke - fellow Dallas Baptist alum, poor, poor man's Ben Zobrist without the switch-hitting ability
R.J. Dabovitch - without means Heath Hembree?
Ryan Murphy - poor, poor man's Joe Biagini? I've got nothing.
Those are pretty good. Probably better than what I can come up with.
DeleteWhat's with the North Carolina St obsession?
ReplyDeleteMike Holmes