Scouting the Draft: Comping Casey Schmitt

The Giants drew a lot of commentary, both positive and negative, for drafting another catcher in the first round, but their second round pick also drew some polarizing commentary.  While most Giants draft watchers were hoping for a future ace pitcher in one of the top two rounds, they went hitter again in round 2 and one that was not ranked in the second round by most pre-draft analysts.  The Giants countered by pointing to Casey Schmitt's power potential and tremendous arm strength which allowed him to double as the SDSU Closer.  They also dropped the name Matt Chapman as a comp, which if Schmitt turns out as good as Matt Chapman it would be a major draft coup.  So let's break down that comp a bit more and see if the analogy holds up.

Casey Schmitt 3B, College(San Diego State).  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 200 lbs.  Age at draft:  21 yrs, 3 mos.

2018:  .264/.302/.346, 12 2B, HR, 11 BB, 29 K, 182 AB.
2019:  .315/.415/.450, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 25 BB, 30 K, 200 AB.
2020:  .323/.386/.452, 4 2B, 2 3B, 7 BB, 13 K, 62 AB.
2019 CCBL:  .248, 6 2B, 5 HR, 12 BB, 20 K, 129 AB.

Matt Chapman 3B, College(CS Fullerton).  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 215 lbs. Age at draft:  21 yrs, 2 months.

2012:  .286/.340/.370, 10 2B, 2 HR, 12 BB, 29 K, 189 AB.
2013:  .285/.415/.457, 11 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 34 BB, 29 K, 186 AB.
2014:  .312/.412/.498, 16 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 27 BB, 26 K, 205 AB.

The Big West conference is a tougher conference, especially for hitters, but these two batting lines are about as similar as you can get over a 3 year period.  We have less information about relative arm strength and range at 3B, but the scouting reports are similar with Schmitty's pitching chops proof he is competitive or more with Chapman in the throwing tool.  It will be interesting to watch Schmitt's numbers once we are able to see him play in the pros. Chapman's HR power had a huge breakout in his first full pro season in 2015 in A+ ball and he was able to maintain that.  Schmitt will need a similar breakout in power at some point to continue the comp.

Conclusion:  Casey Schmitt comps well to Matt Chapman, but Chapman's power did not emerge until after he turned pro and Schmitt will have to show a similar power surge at some point which is not a given, though plausible given his frame.