This will probably not look much different than my draft board, but we will include information about recent draft tendencies and organizational needs. When we say organizational needs, we don't mean at the mlb level but the organization as a whole with attention to the farm system. This is for fun and to understand the prospects better. Mock drafts, even by professional writers who have access to inside information, are notoriously inaccurate.
1. Detroit Tigers.
Needs: Everything but they have more pitching in the system than hitting.
Recent Draft Trends: High school hitting/College Pitching.
2020 Pick: Spencer Torkelson 1B. Special bat to build offense around. At this point, it will be a major surprise if they don't take Tork and could throw draft boards of subsequent teams into chaos if they don't.
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2. Baltimore Orioles.
Needs: Everything.
Recent Draft Trends: Took college catcher last year but 2 previous seasons took HS pitchers.
2020 Pick: Austin Martin SS. Orioles are a quirky team. If any organization would use COVID 19 as an excuse to not take the Best Player Available, it would be the O's. Still, they took the BPA last year in Adley Rutschman and will most likely dos so again this year with Austin Martin who is in the top tier of just two players with Spencer Torkelson even if he ends up at 2B. The bat is that good.
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3. Miami Marlins.
Needs: Everything.
Recent Draft Trends: Took college hitters JJ Bleday and Kameron Misner last year but organizational trend is HS "toolsy" hitters and HS pitchers.
2020 Pick: Zac Veen OF. Here's where veering away from conventional wisdom. This is the organization that drafted Christian Yelich which is the most common comp for Veen and the Marlins are clearly not afraid of gambling on HS talent.
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4. Kansas City Royals.
Needs: Everything. Pitching prospects are closer to MLB than hitting prospects.
Recent Draft Trends: College Pitchers/HS Hitters.
2020 Pick: Nick Gonzalez 2B. Reminds them of Whit Merrifield who will likely not be part of the next winning Royals team.
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5. Toronto Blue Jays.
Needs: Everything. More young hitters at MLB level than young pitchers.
Recent Draft Trends: College Pitchers
2020 Pick: Max Meyer RHP. Blue Jays are rumored to be in on Max Meyer. Asa Lacy falling is not enough to move them off that.
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6. Seattle Mariners.
Needs: Pitching. Top 2 prospects in system are OF's and 7 of top 10 prospects are position players.
Recent Draft Trends: College Pitching(2018, 2019) and College Hitting(2016 and 2017).
2020 Pick: Asa Lacy LHP. With Nick Gonzalez off the board, Asa Lacy's slide stops here and the Mariners might have a steal.
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7. Pittsburgh Pirates.
Needs: Everything but farm system has more promising pitchers.
Recent Draft Trends: College and High School hitting. College Pitching in 2019. Under new management, so may not be applicable.
2020 Pick: Heston Kjerstad OF. Quite a few mocks have Kjerstad to the Bucs and it makes too much sense, so Kjerstad it is.
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8. San Diego Padres.
Needs: Not much really. They have young stars at the MLB level and one of the strongest, most balanced farm systems in baseball.
Recent Draft Trends: High School pitchers/hitters.
2020 Pick: Robert Hassell OF. Padres can afford to be patient and wait for HS talent to develop. They are rumored to be in love with Hassell's sweet swing. They will have to convince themselves he won't honor his committment to Vandy.
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9. Colorado Rockies.
Needs: Pitching, pitching, pitching.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting/pitching last two drafts after a 3 year run of HS players.
2020 Pick: Emerson Hancock. The Rockies have a long history of drafting pitchability lefties like Reid Detmers and it never got them much in return. Detmers extreme flyball tendency is a poor fit and curveballs don't curve at a mile high! So, they'll grab the most projectable college power pitcher in the draft when Hancock falls to them. Perfect fit!
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10. LA Angels.
Needs: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!
Recent Draft Trends: College/High School hitters.
2020 Pick: Reid Detmers, LHP. Angels go for need and take high floor college lefty who can move fast.
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11. Chicago White Sox.
Needs: Pitching.
Recent Draft Trends: ChiSox have taken college hitters with the last 4 drafts and college players the last 7.
2020 Pick: Patrick Bailey C. ChiSox stay with statistically best ROI demographic. Switch-hitting defensive catcher a solid investment.
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12. Cincinnati Reds.
Needs: Organization fairly balanced but farm system leans slightly toward pitching.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting/pitching except for Hunter Greene in 2017.
2020 Pick: Bryse Jarvis RHP. With Hunter Greene struggling and coming back from TJ, the Reds stick to the safety of college talent. Unfortunately the top college hitters are off the board, so they the pitcher who is a SABR wet dream over the more projectable but risky Cade Cavalli or Cole Wilcox.
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13. San Francisco Giants.
Needs: Organizational pitching is extremely thin, Power.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting. Not a trend since they are under new management. Farhan Zaidi, an uber-analytical guy, is also rumored to insist on tools. The Dodgers and A's took players from all four major demographics while FZ was with those organizations.
2020 Pick: Tyler Soderstrom C. This pick makes a lot of sense on several levels. FZ loves lefty hitting catchers. His bat has emerged as a plus tool with present power and potential for more. He has the defensive chops to stay behind the plate but is athletic enough to move to other positions. FZ values versatility. The Giants are said to be concentrating on players with local backgrounds. Turlock is Giants territory and dad, Steve Soderstrom, is a former Giants first round draft pick. It's a pick I could definitely get behind.
Many Giants fans, including me, would like to see the Giants go pitching heavy this draft. Scouting Director Michael Holmes has said he expects them to have a more balanced approach this year than last when they went almost exclusively hitting. Pitching possibilities for this pick in this scenario would be college RHP Cole Wilcox, perhaps the most physical pitcher in the draft, and RHP's Jared Kelley and Mick Abel who might be the most projectable pitcher in the draft.
Then, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs comes out and says he hears the Giants are kicking the tires on a seriously underslot deal for a college hitter who most boards have at the end of round 1 or below, Justin Foscue. Now, Foscue can definitely hit, but he's also seriously slow afoot and projects as a 2B only and would be a similar player in the system as Will Wilson. Seriously? Do the Giants really need another first round pick in that demographic? I have to say I would be disappointed, at least until I saw what they were able to get later with the bonus money saved. It would need to be impressively good.
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14. Texas Rangers.
Needs: Pitching
Recent Draft Trends: College 3B(Last two years); HS pitcher/hitter 2017 and 2018).
2020 Pick: Jared Kelley RHP. I haven't seen his name associated with the Rangers, but they are said to be heavily scouting pitching and are not afraid of HS pitching. Kelley is from Texas. Perfect fit!
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15. Philadelphia Phillies.
Needs: Nothing glaring. Farm system is fairly well balanced.
Recent Draft Trends: College Hitting.
2020 Pick: Garrett Mitchell OF. Toolsiest college hitter falls to the Phils and they snap him up after doing due diligence on the medicals.
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16. Chicago Cubs.
Needs: Everything. Farm system is very thin after top prospect, Nico Hoerner.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting/pitching.
2020 Pick: Cole Wilcox RHP. Love this pick and would be A-OK if the Giants took him at #13. Most physical pitcher in the draft. Ceiling is ace.
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17. Boston Red Sox.
Needs: Everything. Farm system was strip mined under Dave Dombrowski.
Recent Draft Trends: New Management. Rays last 5 first round picks have come from all 4 major demographics.
2020 Pick: Mick Abel RHP. Most projectable HS pitcher in the draft falls in to the Red Sox lap.
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18. Arizona Diamondbacks.
Needs: Pitching
Recent Draft Trends: College/HS hitting.
2020 Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong. Top 2 prospects in system are toolsy OF's, but the D'Backs ignore needs and take the top player on their board. Will need to sign him away from Vandy commit.
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19. New York Mets.
Needs: None. Mets have a well balanced system.
Recent Draft Trends: HS hitting/pitching.
2020 Pick: Nick Bitsko RHP. Similarities to Matthew Allan who the Mets finagled a large over-slot bonus for last year.
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20. Milwaukee Brewers.
Needs: Everything. System is weakened from graduations and trades.
Recent Draft Trends: College pitching/hitting(HS hitter in 2018, Brice Turang).
2020 Pick: Austin Hendrick OF. BrewCrew rumored to be looking at college pitching but when Hendrick falls to them, they can't resist.
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21. St Louis Cardinals.
Needs: Cards have a balanced system.
Recent Draft Trends: High School Hitters/College Pitchers.
2020 Pick: Ed Howard SS. Cards could go college pitching but like the Giants, they have 7 picks in this draft which allows them to grab the higher ceiling HS SS.
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22. Washington Nationals.
Needs: Top 2 prospects in system are infielders but rest of top 10 are all pitchers.
Recent Draft Trends: College pitching(HS 2018)
2020 Pick: Garrett Crochet LHP. Nationals have taken chances in the past(Seth Romero). If they are satisfied with Crochet's medicals they grab the high ceiling lefty.
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23. Cleveland Indians.
Needs: Fairly balanced system but top 4 prospects are hitters.
Recent Draft Trends: High School hitters/pitchers.
2020 Pick: Jordan Walker 3B. Indians stick to their trends and take the top HS player on the board. Tremendous upside. Most physical player in the draft(except maybe Cole Wilcox).
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24. Tampa Bay Rays.
Needs: None. Rays have one of the strongest, if not THE strongest farm systems in baseball.
Recent Draft Trends: Rays have drafted from all 4 demographics over past 5 drafts.
2020 Pick: Bobby Miller RHP. Rays go back where they found Brendan McKay and take the highly projectable college pitcher.
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25. Atlanta Braves.
Needs: System is quite balanced.
Recent Draft Trends: Braves went college heavy last year under new management.
2002 Pick: Chris McMahon RHP. High floor college pitcher fits both Braves needs and draft trends.
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26. Oakland A's.
Needs: Oakland System is balanced.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitting/pitching.
2020 Pick: Austin Wells C. A's grab the bat. Will worry about where he plays later.
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27. Minnesota Twins.
Needs: Twins have a balanced system but a bit thinner on the pitching side.
Recent Draft Trends: College/HS hitting.
2020 Pick: Justin Foscue 2B. There is actually not a lot of space between Nick Gonzalez and Foscue and Foscue may end up with a lot more power. High floor college hitter is great value this low in first round.
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28. New York Yankees.
Needs: None.
Recent Draft Trends: High School hitters, College pitchers.
2020 Pick: Dillon Dingler C. Yankees like to draft up-the-middle talent. Dingler is a college catcher who converted from CF and is athletic enough to move back.
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29. Los Angeles Dodgers.
Needs: None.
Recent Draft Trends: College hitters/pitchers.
2020 Pick: JT Ginn RHP. Dodgers drafted him before. They are not afraid of pitchers with TJ history. Without any obivous standout choices at #29, they roll the dice on Ginn again.
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49. San Francisco Giants.
Needs: Pitching, Power.
Recent Draft Trends: College/HS hitting. Only 1 draft under current management.
2020 Round 2 Pick: I really have no idea. Rumors seem to point to the Giants lying in the weeds for a high-ceiling college talent who falls. There are several HS pitchers who could fall due to demographic risk or HS hitters due to signability. I don't generally count on signable players falling all the way to #49, though. I am going to post 2 names from each demographic who I think might reasonably be available. I will limit it to names who aren't in my first round mock draft:
College Hitters: Hudson Haskin OF, Aaron Sabato 1B. Haskin is the rare college hitter with projection left in the frame. Very athletic. Sabato is a RH version of Logan Wyatt who the Giants took in Round 2 last year.
College Pitchers: Kyle Nicolas RHP, Ian Bedell RHP. Nicolas is a physical beast with tons of projectability left. Bedell is average size but might have the best 4-pitch mix in the entire draft and could be MLB ready in a flash. I'll add JC RHP Franco Aleman for good measure. Huge pitcher with a projectable frame.
HS Hitters: Mario Zabala OF, Chase Davis OF. Zabala is a bit more projectable. Davis might have the better bat. Robby Ashford is probably a pipe dream.
HS Pitchers: Tanner Witt RHP, Ryan Hagenow RHP. Both have very high ceilings. Witt might be the tougher sign. Dax Fulton LHP has a crazy ceiling if the Giants aren't scared off by the TJ and think he's signable.
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67, 68. San Francisco Giants.
Needs: Pitching, Power.
Recent Draft Trends: College/HS hitting. Only 1 draft under current management.
2020 Picks: Same drill.
College Hitters: Alerick Soularie OF, Alika Williams SS. Kind of reaching a bit here. I would hope for higher ceilings with these picks.
College Pitchers: Nick Garcia RHP, Nick Frasso RHP. Garcia has a big league frame and fastball but pitches for a DIII school. Frasso might be more projectable.
HS Hitters: Yohandy Morales 3B, Coby Mayo 3B. A couple of potential 30+ HR guys.
HS Pitchers: Markevian Hence RHP, Cam Brown RHP. Hence is small but has a dynamite arm and name. Brown has classic pitcher's size and a mid-90's FB.
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85. San Francisco Giants.
A few random names I like: TJ McCants SS, HS. Beck Way LHP, JC. Ricky Tiedemann LHP, HS, Trent Palmer RHP, College.
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114. San Francisico Giants.
Michael Rothenburg C, College, Johnny Cuevas RHP, JC, Luke Little LHP, JC. Alex Toral 1B, College.
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144. San Francisco Giants.
Joey Wiemer OF, College, Jackson Wolf LHP, College, Blaze Jordan 1B HS
Haha! I could see FZ taking a flyer on Country Breakfast Jr. if he's still hanging around in rounds 4 or 5.
That's it! Happy Drafting, everybody!
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Great! The versatile LHB catcher would be good longer term. Otherwise Wilcox or Mitchell (with your provision).
ReplyDeleteIf someone unexpected falls to #13, like Jarvis or Hancock, all bets are off!
Error under 17 Boston Red Sox:
Recent Draft Trends: New Management. RAYS last 5 first round picks have come from all 4 major demographics.
Thank you. Not an error. BoSox GM Chaim Bloom last worked for the Rays.
DeleteOf course. Sorry.
DeleteAs we should have expected, the Orioles blew up the board with the second overall pick. I was right about Asa Lacy not being the first pitcher off the board, though.
ReplyDelete