Monday, June 1, 2020
Scouting the Draft: First Round Tiers- High School Pitchers
Note: I added Franco Aleman RHP(JC) to my College Pitcher 1C list.
I have to confess it's really hard for me to separate high school pitchers in my head. After awhile, they all look alike. I'm basically looking for present velocity and a projectable frame which means most of them I like are going to be at least 6'3" although an occasional shorter pitcher with good present velocity will sneak into the list. It's the riskiest demographic, especially in the top half of the first round. Kids who throw hard enough to be considered there are also the highest risk of UCL tears. Whether they make it back on the other side of TJ surgery appears to be almost completely a coin flip or random chance. Here are my first round HS pitching tiers:
1A: None.
1B:
Jared Kelley RHP
Mick Abel RHP
Nick Bitsko RHP
Abel has the more projectable frame but I also like pitchers with present velocity who have stouter frames as I believe(without proof) that they are lower injury risk. That's why I prefer the stouter framed Kelley to the more projectable Abel. Nick Bitsko is kind of in-between, but is a pop-up prospect due to re-classification and might be more of a 1C prospect. I don't know if Dick Tidrow still has any infiuence in the Giants organization. If he was still running the draft, I would say Kelley is a lock to them at #13, but I believe they will most likely take a HS hitter there.
1C:
Justin Lange RHP
Tanner Witt RHP
Ryan Hagenow RHP
Alex Santos RHP
Alejandro Rosario RHP
Nick Griffin LHP
I have this group ranked higher than most draft rankings, but I feel it's OK to start taking risks on upside and ceiling as early as the second half of round 1. All of these kids have at least mid-90's present velocity with projectable frames.
We have 47 players ranked as first round talents. I would say it is a near lock that multiple teams will take college hitters who I don't have ranked which means it's a near lock that the Giants will have a choice of multiple first round talents(at least by my ranking) at #49 in round 2. I'm thinking they could pick and sign a nice HS pitcher there. Hagenow or Lange would be my first choices but Witt, Santos, Rosario or Griffin would also make a fine choice there too.
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We really need an MLB spectacular TV event for this draft since it will probably the closest thing to live action we're likely to this year.
ReplyDeleteMLB proposes a plan that only pre-arb players and AAAA minor leaguers who make the roster could like.
MLBPA counters with a plan that only the upper echelon teams with lucrative TV contracts could like guaranteeing real losses for at least a few of the Owners Club.
It's equally crazy to think Mike Trout will play for ~30% of his contract as it will to play 114 games into November when they bottom third of the teams won't make the lucrative playoffs.
There is enough incentive to play for both sides I think they will come to a financial agreement. What I am afraid will happen is we will see a "second wave" of Coronavirus hit right about the time games are set to begin.
DeleteAnother great article Doc. Thank you. Just read the list of the twenty minor league players the Giants released the other day. Some familiar names on that list, that you have posted about in the past. Was mildly disappointed by one, but he really did not have a chance at 1B or RF. Too much lower level competition. Not enough power. Very much looking forward to reading your opinion on the cuts.
ReplyDeleteI think you are probably referring to Dalton Combs? Some folks might shed a tear for Ronnie Jebavy who had some tools but just never made enough contact. Beyond that, most of the names were barely recognizable even for me and I feel like I know the system very well. Maybe Matt Winn was a mild surprise?
DeleteGiants have really upped their international scouting game and a couple of really good drafts so there just isn't room for fringe prospects anymore.
If I were drafting for the Giants, my first 4 choices (maybe all 7) would be pitchers unless some real can't miss power stud falls to #13.
ReplyDeleteEvery pick is a guess, there have been #1 busts and there will be more.
When Buster was taken with the 5th pick in 2009, #6 went to another Catcher I bet no one can name! Nor the 1st pick in that draft!
The best pick by WAR in the 1st round of 2008 was @ #41 better than Price @ #1 and Bummy @ #10
At #13 you're supposed to take the best player available, but unless he's a 99% sure thing (and he won't be because no one ever is), the Giants need pitching for 2023 and forever thereafter. With 4 (or 7) pitcher choices, they would have to have really bad luck not to get a couple good ones.
Record the next pitchers picked after #13, #49, #69 (2 picks), #85, #114, & #144, and we'll come back and look at them in 2024 and thereafter.
All things being equal, I also would like to see at least 4 of the 7 picks go for pitching. Hey! The Giants have an organizational pitching deficit and this is on overwhelmingly strong draft for pitchers. Seems like a perfect fit! Except in 2007, the Giants needed hitting and it was a strong draft for hitting and they took Bummy. As Vin Scully would say, "go figure!"
DeleteIf they can get a #10 Bummy anywhere, take him.
DeleteLOL