Scouting the Draft: Shadow Drafting

Wow!  When the Giants went overslot to sign 3'rd round draft pick Kyle Harrison, they weren't just going a little bit over.  Word is Harrison's bonus is $2.5 M which is over 3 times the slot value for that pick.  This tends to confirm a lot of suspicions that the Giants other picks were all significantly underslot except possibly Patrick Bailey and it's likely his deal with come in a bit underslot as well.  So the question becomes, could the Giants have done better if they just played the draft straight and took the BPA who would sign for slot with each of their picks?  There is probably no way to know unless you did an exhaustive study of every bonus to every pick and who has time for that?  We don't know that information for most of the players yet anyway! 

Here is another way of looking at it.  Let's look at the 5 players taken after each of the Giants picks and see if we would trade the Giants pick for one of them at each level.

Round 1 #13.  Patrick Bailey C.

Justin Foscue 2B, College.  Big underslot deal. No.
Mick Abel RHP, HS.  A lot of people wanted Abel instead of Bailey, and he may have a higher ceiling than Bailey, but there is always a ton of risk with HS arms.
Ed Howard SS, HS.  Interesting player who I would have been happy with.  Bailey is much more likely to deliver the higher WAR value.
Nick Yorke SS, HS.  Waaay underslot and a head scratching pick for the BoSox.  Nope.
Bryce Jarvis RHP, College.  Now you're talking!  Love Jarvis and think he's close to MLB ready right now, but Bailey is at least 50-50 to have the better MLB career.

Conclusion:  None of the 5 picks to follow Patrick Bailey at #13 are significantly more likely to have a better MLB careeer.

Round 2 #49.  Casey Schmitt 3B. 

Evan Carter OF, HS.  Not even ranked on most draft boards. No.
Burl Carraway LHP, College.  Electric stuff but small size. Likely to end up in bullpen.
J.T. Ginn RHP, College.  Draft eligible sophomore, out with TJ.  Will likely require a mid-first round bonus to sign.
Freddy Zamora SS, College.  Out with injury.  Not a great hitter.  Nope.
Masyn Winn SS, HS.  Intriguing pick by the Cards.  Will he sign for slot or close to slot?  Would you rather have him than Kyle Harrison?  Probably not.

Conclusion:  You could make cases for Carraway, Ginn and Winn.  None are slam dunks to be better than Casey Schmitt.  Ginn and Winn are both likely to require overslot deals. 

Compensation Round #67 and 68.  Nick Swiney LHP, College.  Jimmy Glowenke SS, College.

Isaiah Greene OF, HS.  Interesting player who may well sign for close to slot.  Much higher ceiling than Glowenke.
Alec Burleson OF, College.  Don't know much about him but probably a better bet than Glowenke.
Samuel Infante SS, HS.  I don't know anything about him. 
Alex Santos RHP, HS.  Another interesting name who might sign for close to slot. 

Conclusion:  You could make a case that Greene and Santos were signable for close to slot and enough better than Swiney and Glowenke to throw Harrison under the bus.  Not an easy call, though.

Round 3, #85.  Kyle Harrison LHP, HS.

Tekoah Roby RHP, HS.  Waaay underslot. Nope.
Casey Martin SS, College.  Speedy but K's way too much.
Jordan Nwogu OF, College.  Did not scout him before the draft.
Blaze Jordan 3B, HS.  Country Breakfast Jr.  Probably requires overslot.  Huge bust potential.
Liam Norris LHP, HS.  Did not scout him before the draft.

Conclusion:  The game here is to get close enough to Harrison's value at slot to make you want to spend his extra bonus money somewhere else, like at #67 and #68.  Nobody here to make you begrudge Harrison's bonus. 

Round 4, #114.  R.J. Dabovich RHP, College.

Dylan Maclean LHP, HS. Another bizarre Rangers pick.
Carson Ragsdale RHP, College.  Intriguing size at 6'8", 225 lbs.  Otherwise did not scout him predraft.
Luke Little LHP, JC.  Probably could be signed for about the same bonus as Dabovitch. Little's ceiling seems higher to me.
Jeremy Wu-Yelland LHP, College.  Don't know anything about him.  Probably rather have Dabovich.
Matthew Dyer C, College.  Didn't scout him.

Conclusion:  I would have personally preferred the Giants take Luke Little here, but he's a lottery ticket too.  Just a pretty darn intriguing one at 6'8" and a triple digit FB.  Joey Wiemer OF and Ian Bedell RHP were the next two players taken.  Wiemer is very intriguing and I would have preferred Bedell over Dabovich likely for a similar bonus price.

Round 5, #144. Ryan Murphy RHP, College. 

Thomas Saggase, SS HS.  Another bizarro Rangers pick.
Baron Radcliff OF, College.  Who?
Shane Drohan LHP, College.  Ranked #146 by MLB Pipeline so maybe?
Brandon Pfaadt RHP, College.  Hey!  I'd draft him in round 5 for the name alone!
Eric Orze RHP, College.  Who?

Conclusion:  Eh, nobody here worth getting our tails tied in a knot over, but would love to have the Pfaadt kid for the name.

Overall Conclusion:  The Giants draft sequence to meet Harrison's bonus demands was probably as good or better than any reasonable alternative not including Harrison.  They probably could have had Harrison and still drafted Luke Little or Ian Bedell in Round 4. I would have preferred either to Dabovich but that is purely personal preference and no major game changer in draft value.